Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
17:30 PM IST May 30 2013
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, the depression over coastal West Bengal and neighborhood moved slowly northeastward with the speed of about 3 knots in the last 12 hours and now lays near 22.7N 87.3E, about 30 km north of Midnapore, West Bengal.

The system is likely to move slowly northwestward and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during the next 24 hours.
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Quoting Torito:


Yes, i understand that, but the hurricane getting pulled into the monsoon also helps generation, because of the moisture involved with both the trough and the system.


I'm not gonna harp on this too much longer.
I feel like you don't WANT to understand what I'm trying to show you.

(And there is so much wrong with your statement here I'm not even gonna try to fix it up.) *shakes head*
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
That convective feature south of the remnants of Barbara is a Feeder band that was present early this morning. It's still firing up but Barbara is about dead.


Feeder Bands
Lines or bands of low-level clouds that move (feed) into the updraft region of a thunderstorm, usually from the east through south (i.e., parallel to the inflow). Same as inflow bands. This term also is used in tropical meteorology to describe spiral-shaped bands of convection surrounding, and moving toward, the center of a tropical cyclone.(from NOAA)

Its not moving toward the center. It is removed from the center. Just because convection pops in the storm area DOES NOT MEAN that convection is feeding the circulation. This convection is exactly the opposite.
It is in COMPETITION with the feeder convection.
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Tropical cyclogenesis possible here? Sorry for spelling. xD



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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they say we should peak at 37c with humidex today and tomorrow as well till a cool down moves in I can see towering cumulus to my west now just starting may get a boomer later this afternoon to cool it down a bit but that will only make it more humid



37C is ugly. Should be HOT here today as well.



The humidity shouldn't be off the scale though....
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Looking at some hi-res visible loops of ex-Barbara at the moment and the COC, over water at this point, appears intact with some convection trying to re-fire. However, a pretty naked swirl in the NE quadrant and sheering going on out of the SW so not sure if she will be able to regain convection in that quadrant. But, the COC looks intact, over water, and slowly drifting to the North now.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9342
Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa spin and energy to make a comeback as the local BOC enviro is conducive for development.


Never, ever turn yer back on a Vort in the BOC.



Wonder when an ASCAT/OSCAT will be available.
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Ok. I hear ya.

You do know that the monsoon trough is generated by surface convergence in addition to atmospheric moisture, right?

Absorbing can also be though of as 'energy dissapation' into the surrounding environment.

Try to read through my explanation again using these two concepts.


Yes, i understand that, but the hurricane getting pulled into the monsoon also helps generation, because of the moisture involved with both the trough and the system.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they say we should peak at 37c with humidex today and tomorrow as well till a cool down moves in I can see towering cumulus to my west now just starting may get a boomer later this afternoon to cool it down a bit but that will only make it more humid

My current heat index is 98 F and it feels nice as long as i don,t work to hard . Im used to the Heat. A shower is popping up to The E. oF TDB
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That convective feature south of the remnants of Barbara is a Feeder band that was present early this morning. It's still firing up but Barbara is about dead.
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Quoting Torito:


When barbara was a hurricane, one of the bands broke off at landfall, and that spot is still present on the other side of mexico. That spot then got absorbed into the monsoon trough, which appears to be absorbing the entire system slowly, so it looks like Barbara is going to be stuck in the monsoon... Basicly, i am saying that the bands are getting pulled into the monsoon, and as a result, the whole system is doing the same.

Ok. I hear ya.

You do know that the monsoon trough is generated by surface convergence in addition to atmospheric moisture, right?

Absorbing can also be though of as 'energy dissapation' into the surrounding environment.

Try to read through my explanation again using these two concepts.
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Quoting Patrap:
interesting mimic joe

interesting is the word. shows the whole trip across land and to my eye in the last frames shows a counterclockwise spin?? its not real discernable..but something appears to be left.....as to what happens now???
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Note the un-enhanced IR sig.

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Quoting belizeit:
Hope you can keep cool Keep that Index is very high for you .
they say we should peak at 37c with humidex today and tomorrow as well till a cool down moves in I can see towering cumulus to my west now just starting may get a boomer later this afternoon to cool it down a bit but that will only make it more humid

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Quoting seminolesfan:
Care to give us any analysis on this?

Or are you just trumpeting a blind-opinion?


When barbara was a hurricane, one of the bands broke off at landfall, and that spot is still present on the other side of mexico. That spot then got absorbed into the monsoon trough, which appears to be absorbing the entire system slowly, so it looks like Barbara is going to be stuck in the monsoon... Basicly, i am saying that the bands are getting pulled into the monsoon, and as a result, the whole system is doing the same.
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interesting mimic joe

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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
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Hope you can keep cool Keep that Index is very high for you .
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New alert for me. (not that it really matters, only thing that bothers me right now is pollen.)

Statement as of 12:23 PM EDT on May 29, 2013
... Air quality alert is in effect for Thursday May 30 2013...

The Maryland department of the environment has issued a code
Orange air quality alert Thursday for the Baltimore Metro area.

A code Orange air quality alert means that air pollution
concentrations within the region may become unhealthy for sensitive
groups. Sensitive groups include children... people suffering from
asthma... heart disease or other lung diseases... and the elderly.
The effects of air pollution can be minimized by avoiding strenuous
activity or exercise outdoors.

For more information on ground-level ozone and fine
particles... visit www.Mde.State.MD.US/air... or call the Maryland
air quality hotline at 4 1 0... 5 3 7... 3 2 4 7.

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Dvorak

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Quoting Torito:


Looks like it to me.
Care to give us any analysis on this?

Or are you just trumpeting a blind-opinion?
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Quoting Torito:


Looks like it to me.
What you see is the MLC dying and some sort of vort area south over water.
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Quoting Gearsts:
She didn't split in half
You are right, IMO. The convergent environment was behind the storm and the convection fired there and not in the storm. This energy relocation allowed the storm to decouple over land and the low and mid rotation centers were not stacked.

Lack of energy = lack of organization = 'POOF'
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nite down under Aussie.
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Quoting Gearsts:
She didn't split in half


Looks like it to me.
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1630z SPC outlook will be interesting.

There is a remnant MCS/outflow boundary on the central OK/KS border, which is where the northern tip of the Moderate risk lies currently. This may hamper destabilization of the atmosphere and as a result I believe the Moderate risk will be removed from that area.

Farther south towards OKC, I still believe the atmosphere is strong enough for a Moderate Risk delineation. Strong CAPE, sufficient low level shear and low LCL's call for the potential for very large hail, and tornadoes, especially with the more dominant supercells that develop today.

Also, the later initiation of storms today compared to yesterday fosters more daytime heating, inducing more instability, and more fuel for supercells to thrive on.

Therefore, I expect a greater chance for tornadoes in the southern areas of the Moderate Risk, compared to yesterday when only 1 tornado was reported in the area where it was once a 15% hatched.

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Night all
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962




Barbara now on the Atlantic Floater page.
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A big sal outbreak has begun to emerge from West Africa.This will likely cool a bit more the MDR waters.

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Quoting Torito:


You can see barbara split in half at the beginning of that satellite image. i dont feel as crazy now.
She didn't split in half
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93 degrees when factoring in the heat index in up here at Maryland. really hot right now, we were in the 70s last week.
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Extreme Heat Alert

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Thursday 30 May 2013
Condition:some Clouds
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:84.6°F
Dewpoint:67.8°F
Humidity:57%
Wind:SW 9 mph
Humidex: 98

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Quoting Gearsts:


You can see barbara split in half at the beginning of that satellite image. i dont feel as crazy now.
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Random tornado vortex signature, and no thunderstorm watch/warning in effect....

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I really think there is something there........
Obviously not a tropical system, but it spins and has its own tiny eye, even though it is like 5 miles wide. xD




110.6 15.7 long/lat
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There should be some big post-season changes to Barbara's landfall intensity. I'm not sure about TAFB, but SAB came back with 90 mph nearly three hours before the storm made landfall, and Barbara only became more organised in that remaining time. It wasn't a minimal Cat. 1, that's for sure.

I get to also do that since I'm assigned Barbara for the DD's TCR's. I don't think it was a minimal Cat 1.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I hear ya.....Technically, a depression, in either basin, is a tropical storm which it not named until it reached TS wind speeds. Good Dr. M would be correct if a depression survives intact into the Gulf as in this case.


"Technically, a depression, in either basin, is a tropical cyclone which is not named until it reaches TS wind speeds."

I think this is what you ment...
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Quoting JeffMasters:
The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today.

Good morning, Barbara
Your LLC I presume
But perhaps you'll just be happy
To rejoin the Monsoon
Gyre on.

Well, like I said, I gotta keep an eye on the dryline and a triumverate of outflow boundaries. As the World Turns, as the Echo Reverberates through the Universes, you all have fun.
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Quoting seminolesfan:

I think it reads correctly.

Does it have the possibility to regenerate? Sure.
Is it likely? Not Really.

I don't think the wording does anything other than mention there is a non-zero chance of it happening.


I hear ya.....Technically, a depression, in either basin, is a tropical cyclone which is not named until it reached TS wind speeds. Good Dr. M would be correct if a depression survives intact into the Gulf as in this case.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9342
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There should be some big post-season changes to Barbara's landfall intensity. I'm not sure about TAFB, but SAB came back with 90 mph nearly three hours before the storm made landfall, and Barbara only became more organised in that remaining time. It wasn't a minimal Cat. 1, that's for sure.


TAFB was at 65 kts at that time:

EP 02 201305291745 DVTS 1570N 9420W 77 SAB 4545 ///// DT=4.5 BO CBND MET=4.0 PT=4.0 FTBO DT

EP 02 201305291745 DVTS 1570N 9430W 65 987 TAFB 4040 ///// eye beginning to clear out. cdo approx 2 deg wide
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GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model
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on new map Barb's vort is rejoining monsoon trof monsoon trof show a few vorts lining from Colombia to BOC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Quoting AussieStorm:


Oh thanks, I didn't see that advisory. And Pat. I can read ya no



From yer post we wunderd Aussie.

..and it is,er, "Know", not "no"



: )
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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