Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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I would tend to think that this cluster of storms is only going to gather strength as it moves into rather volatile airmass out ahead of it. Any storms out ahead of the main line and also on the tail end of the line of storms will have a higher probability of rotating. I'm this close to calling it a day at work and go CHASE :D



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I looked at more stuff (SRH, instability in the lowest 3km, etc) and removed that a few minutes after I posted it, lol.

Every time I say something isn't going to happen, it happens. Uh uh. Not this time.

Still, I don't think it will be TOO bad.


Well for the sake of the people in OKC I sure hope so. Watch, now that you agreed with me it will be a bust and we will both look dumb.
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Continuing on a path of misinformation is detrimental to learning. Knowing when and where you left the path of 'correctness' is a needed detail in the search for more knowledge.
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196. VR46L
Quoting southernstorm:
is that disturbance east of Florida a tropical wave or just storms?


I haven't been following it to tell you which it is but it seems to be losing convection and severity .

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The SPC has upgraded to a Moderate risk for tomorrow.

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I'm back. Glad to see we have things back in order, for the most part.
I know I may have started this mess, I take responsibility for it, but there is no reason for me to be passive on something I truly enjoy, love and hope to make a career of. This blog has really helped me develop knowledge and an understanding for this stuff. Ammature or not I don't want someone on here trying to correct others when some are still in the learning situation that I was in a few years ago. This blog is about sharing opinions and knowledge on weather. Not a popularity contest, not a classroom, a weather blog. I really have to thank people like Kman, pottery, Levi, cybrted, Ike, miamihurricanes, weather456 and some of the other longtime members that have been with me from when I lurked to now.
Thank You. Have a great afternoon everyone.
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The SPC says there is a 70% chance of 2 or more tornadoes and a 40% chance of 1 or more strong tornadoes (EF2+) in the newly issued watch area across Oklahoma.
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Well, it is on the right -----> side of this page.

: )

Local Weather

Ann Arbor, Michigan
82 °F
Thunderstorm
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Something to keep an eye for the Oklahoma City area...

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Yeah, I'm noticing the zip code as well on Firefox
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is that disturbance east of Florida a tropical wave or just storms?
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Quoting IceCoast:


I wouldn't jump the gun to early TA. Surface-1km SRH is over 100m2/s2 in central and eastern OK. That combined with what the OKC 12z sounding shows, and early radar indications of a few discrete cells out ahead of the dry line could trigger trouble. We will see how it unfolds soon.






Yeah, I looked at more stuff (SRH, instability in the lowest 3km, etc) and removed that a few minutes after I posted it, lol.

Every time I say something isn't going to happen, it happens. Uh uh. Not this time.

Still, I don't think it will be TOO bad.
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Quoting Patrap:
Thats ann arbor' zip code 48103, where Dr. Masters lives

Now i know where Dr.Jeff Lives,wait my visit one of these days...lol,....
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Canadian is also showing 10" to 20" of rain across FL with a high tornado potential.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting PedleyCA:


I am using Firefox and I noticed it started showing "48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground," here yesterday as well. Must just be a new annoyance.

They must have changed the title element in the html header for the blogs. This is the element that dictates what shows up as the title in the tab of the browser.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The cap across eastern Oklahoma is already broken, and storms are beginning to fire accordingly. Wind shear is still weak across the Moderate risk area and is expected to remain so until sunset. Today will probably be another day of messy storm modes/linear lines with an isolated tornado threat and small strong tornado threat with any discrete supercells until 0z. After that time, if there are discrete cells, there's a better chance of long-lived tornadoes.

Tomorrow looks more interesting to me. SPC will likely upgrade to a Moderate risk.



I wouldn't jump the gun to early TA. Surface-1km SRH is over 100m2/s2 in central and eastern OK. That combined with what the OKC 12z sounding shows, and early radar indications of a few discrete cells out ahead of the dry line could trigger trouble. We will see how it unfolds soon.





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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WATCH 252 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-049 -051-063-067-
069-073-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-103-10 5-107-109-111-
113-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141-143-145-14 7-310300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0252.130530T1755Z-130531T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK GARVIN
GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN LOVE MARSHALL
MAYES MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON


ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
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Quoting MrMixon:
In my experience, NOBODY likes being told they are wrong. But telling people they are wrong is part of life. There is a trick to doing it in a way that avoids triggering a person's defensive reflex.

Here's the trick: Correct with respect.

If you can correct a person's misstatement while simultaneously assuring them that you still respect their thoughts and words I find they are FAR more likely to listen to you. Note - this does not apply to trolls.




PS - Are there any other Google Chrome users who are seeing "48103 Weather Forecast" as the tab title for Dr. Masters blog? Usually I thought the tab text said something like "Dr. Masters Wunderblog" or something similar to that. I notice the tab text for my own blog says "80466 Weather Forecast". So it seems like they've maybe recoded the site to show the blogger's zip code... I'm finding it a bit confusing.


Someone figured it out earlier that the number is the local zipcode. Appears on the tab for any member that has the "Local Weather" filled out on their blog page.
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180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
I'm seeing it in firefox.

48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground

As a programmer, my guess is that the correct value is accidentally getting overwritten by something else. 48103 is the zip for Ann Arbor, MI--isn't that where Dr. Masters is based?


yup. the titles of all blogs are reading out the bloggers zip code of their location settings.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46613
Geesh!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Is there no reprieve for the people in this area...
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 am CDT Thursday may 30 2013


Valid 301630z - 311200z


..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight
across parts of central and eastern OK...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the upper Midwest into Southern
Plains and Ozark Plateau...


...


A negatively tilted midlevel trough extending from an upper low over
the northern High Plains into Southern Plains will pivot northeastward through the
middle/upper-MS valley in response to the progression of
middle/upper-level jet streaks through and downstream of the trough
base. This large-scale pattern evolution will contribute to a
corridor of height falls from the mid-MS/lower-MO valleys northeastward into
the upper Great Lakes with height rises across the central/southern High
Plains.


In the low levels...a surface front extending from an occluded low
pressure over north-central South Dakota through central parts of Nebraska/Kansas to a
secondary low over north-central OK will slowly advance eastward. The southwestern
extension of this front from the north-central OK low into western Texas will
transition to a dryline which will mix eastward through western OK and
west-central Texas today. The synoptic cold front and dryline along with an
outflow boundary settling southward through northern OK will likely serve as
the focal points for severe thunderstorm development later today.

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Don't forget at 2 pm today on Twitter you can ask questions of NHC hurricane experts. #HurriChat

HONESTLY I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO ASK!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Thats ann arbor' zip code 48103, where Dr. Masters lives


I am using Firefox and I noticed it started showing "48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground," here yesterday as well. Must just be a new annoyance.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
At 142- real mature... I really don't have time for you so I'm just going to put you on ignored list instead of this turning into a nuclear war. Beside, you only got like 1,700 comments since 2006 on here so you really aren't in a position to be upset at high schoolers since you aren't on here often anyway. Peace.


Just my two cents! Just because you dont have many comments dosn't mean you are barly here! I read almost all the comments and contribute when i have something to add, which isnt very often. But I'm still here and I think we all have something to add! Back to lurking.
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Keep your eye on this one.

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PS - Are there any other Google Chrome users who are seeing "48103 Weather Forecast" as the tab title for Dr. Masters blog? Usually I thought the tab text said something like "Dr. Masters Wunderblog" or something similar to that. I notice the tab text for my own blog says "80466 Weather Forecast". So it seems like they've maybe recoded the site to show the blogger's zip code... I'm finding it a bit confusing.


I'm seeing it in firefox.

48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground

As a programmer, my guess is that the correct value is accidentally getting overwritten by something else. 48103 is the zip for Ann Arbor, MI--isn't that where Dr. Masters is based?
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171. VR46L
Quoting MrMixon:
In my experience, NOBODY likes being told they are wrong. But telling people they are wrong is part of life. There is a trick to doing it in a way that avoids triggering a person's defensive reflex.

Here's the trick: Correct with respect.

If you can correct a person's misstatement while simultaneously assuring them that you still respect their thoughts and words I find they are FAR more likely to listen to you. Note - this does not apply to trolls.




PS - Are there any other Google Chrome users who are seeing "48103 Weather Forecast" as the tab title for Dr. Masters blog? Usually I thought the tab text said something like "Dr. Masters Wunderblog" or something similar to that. I notice the tab text for my own blog says "80466 Weather Forecast". So it seems like they've maybe recoded the site to show the blogger's zip code... I'm finding it a bit confusing.




Yes I am too !



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Quoting seminolesfan:
@158:
You are right. I have no idea what I'm talking about and have nothing to contribute to the blog.

I didn't realize this was a popularity contest based on how often you post.


that is true...# of posts don't matter. I don't mind if someone corrects people..as long as the person correcting is 100% correct.

Yes there is alot of dreamcasting storms to go their direction and people giving out very bad info, but this site is very public and if anyone has a question, this isn't the correct place (depending on the question)..if it's storm related in direction it's going... you should follow the NHC on official statements.. if you want guessing.. this is the place to go. Yes there are a couple people here and there that can make a good prediction...but most that do get something correct... it was a good guess.
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Thats ann arbor' zip code 48103, where Dr. Masters lives
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Quoting MrMixon:
PS - Are there any other Google Chrome users who are seeing "48103 Weather Forecast" as the tab title for Dr. Masters blog? Usually I thought the tab text said something like "Dr. Masters Wunderblog" or something similar to that. I notice the tab text for my own blog says "80466 Weather Forecast". So it seems like they've maybe recoded the site to show the blogger's zip code... I'm finding it a bit confusing.

Yes, mine shows it too. Thought it was just me yesterday until I saw discussion about it this morning.
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In my experience, NOBODY likes being told they are wrong. But telling people they are wrong is part of life. There is a trick to doing it in a way that avoids triggering a person's defensive reflex.

Here's the trick: Correct with respect.

If you can correct a person's misstatement while simultaneously assuring them that you still respect their thoughts and words I find they are FAR more likely to listen to you. Note - this does not apply to trolls.




PS - Are there any other Google Chrome users who are seeing "48103 Weather Forecast" as the tab title for Dr. Masters blog? Usually I thought the tab text said something like "Dr. Masters Wunderblog" or something similar to that. I notice the tab text for my own blog says "80466 Weather Forecast". So it seems like they've maybe recoded the site to show the blogger's zip code... I'm finding it a bit confusing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@158:
You are right. I have no idea what I'm talking about and have nothing to contribute to the blog.

I didn't realize this was a popularity contest based on how often you post.
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164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tornado Watch 251
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46613
GFS being consistent for the last day on an Atlantic disturbance:


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Strong low level easterlies should throw TD Barbra into Mexico by tonight or so.

Nothing to get worked about
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The cap across eastern Oklahoma is already broken, and storms are beginning to fire accordingly.

Tomorrow looks more interesting to me. SPC will likely upgrade to a Moderate risk.

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CMC is worthless 95% of the time. It changes each run
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12z Navgem-
last frame at 180 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
At 142- real mature... I really don't have time for you so I'm just going to put you on ignored list instead of this turning into a nuclear war. Beside, you only got like 1,700 comments since 2006 on here so you really aren't in a position to be upset at high schoolers since you aren't on here often anyway. Peace.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interestingly enough, some of the people I find to be the most knowledgeable and accurate on here, outside of mets, tend to be in high school. Let's not cause drama today. It's a blog, not a war zone.


I actually agree with you on this one Teddy! Some of our regulars that are young'ens are quite smart and draw some good conclusions.

I really don't know how this got so out of sorts today.

I genuinely thought I was trying to throw some learning out there for people, but apparently it was not as well received as was intended.

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Quoting ncstorm:
hey Everyone..the CMC has an east coast rider..

12z CMC









Next run or two that should shift west again.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


At what timestamp it begins to develop?


90 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
Things are about to get busy...

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Quoting IceCoast:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301720Z - 301945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TCU/CB HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE
EFFECTIVE DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. DESPITE FOCUS FOR
LARGER-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING NEWD/TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF A VERY
RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTENANCE OF INTENSIFYING
UPDRAFTS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND PERHAPS THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS N-CNTRL OK. WITH AN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN THE PURCELL
PROFILER...CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUBSTANTIAL
VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE INTO THE MID-LEVELS...SETUP WILL BE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 35869815 36259678 36259633 35839586 35219594 33859694
33619748 33309888 33549936 34019930 34529912 35109843
35869815


Very strong wording from the SPC. Shows the potential.
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Quoting ncstorm:
hey Everyone..the CMC has an east coast rider..

12z CMC











A nor'easter?
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Quoting ncstorm:
hey Everyone..the CMC has an east coast rider..

12z CMC











At what timestamp it begins to develop?
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WHAT THE H........?

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Interestingly enough, some of the people I find to be the most knowledgeable and accurate on here, outside of mets, tend to be in high school. Let's not cause drama today. This is a tropical weather blog, not a middle school classroom.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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