Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52404
Vance AFB, OK (KVNX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5
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People in Moore (and the entire OKC metro area) have got to be sick of seeing radar images like this... sheesh.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 25, 1005, TD

Link

definitely not the LLCOC

I say next advisory is on the remnant of Barb
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I somehow again am getting missed by severe thunderstorms. I hate how there is some shield around me area.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Going out for a nap. Hopefully NOTHING happens this time while napping because last time I took a nap during active storms, an EF5 went through Moore.

EDIT: Never mind, I'm staying.


If by that you mean nothing will happen because you're not napping, well then I absolutely forbid you from going to bed!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 25, 1005, TD

Link

?

EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 20, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 60, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, M,

Barbara is dead. :\
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 25, 1005, TD

Link


Changed to DB

EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 20, 1005, DB
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CASHION is in the path ...take cover.
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Good afternoon everyone.Hope all is well and safe from the weather events we have had.
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The decent looking circulation, from the past several hours when she emerged off the coast, is starting to fall apart in the last several vis-frames.
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DMAX is starting to kick in over land i wonder if that shower we see in the left of the image is the same one you see on visible close to the center
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Went back and read the comments of this blog. Wow.

Anyway, hate to bring up a sore subject, but the convection over Mexico to the southeast of Barb's center is there because of her convergent bands that are still swirling around. So yes, they are "feeder bands" or "convective bands" of thunderstorms. I'm not sure why there is any argument over that at all. The reason they are not feeding directly into the center is more than likely because of shear and possibly the change in environment from land to ocean. Heating of the day makes it quite easy for storms to form along a convergent band from a tropical system. Even then, that band is slowly lifting north towards the center...lol.

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18z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 25, 1005, TD

Link
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Not looking so lucky today.




edit: News9 chopper is streaming: Link

The storm to the SW of OKC has a better rotation and structure. The one to the NW of town is having problems holding onto a coherent rotation.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so I was away for awhile and ya all went scratched the new page all up




When the mod's away . . . :D
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so I was away for awhile and ya all went scratched the new page all up

it don't matter nothing this is a blog about weather or current topics regarding weather open to all and any to post information or thoughts on current weather related events no matter what the age
no matter how many posts or what degree of education

that's what makes us unique a vast about of information compiled into a reasonable forecast or prediction of a forecast

plain and simple

and if we make a few friends along the way that's the bonus


by the way its getting dark best check my radar

just in on a break here
Reported..:)
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Quoting daddyjames:
Sometimes, it isn't nice being the center of attention


Indeed. We in Alabama had our turn in the tank in 2011 and it sure looks like Oklahoma and surrounding states are the center of attention so far this year. This has been the quietest severe weather season on south Alabama in many decades. There must be some connection between what happens in Oklahoma and down here, since things seem to be bad in one or the other but not both, thank goodness.
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Going out for a nap. Hopefully NOTHING happens this time while napping because last time I took a nap during active storms, an EF5 went through Moore.

EDIT: Never mind, I'm staying.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7507
looks like its popping up right over head

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52404
228. VR46L
Quoting daddyjames:
Sometimes, it isn't nice being the center of attention



I hear ya thats not nice at all !
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Not looking so lucky today.



Thanks, just turned on the tv - that one should be a lttle south of me (fingers crossed).

Funny, a tune just popped in my head . . . "Somewhere, over the rainbow, . . . lurks wind and hail" :D
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'nado warning.

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225. VR46L
Quoting sar2401:

The convection from back west of what was Barbara looks a lot more impressive than what was Barbara. It certainly looks like Barbara is now DOA. Since I'm the self-declared "Official Mistake Corrector" for today, I obviously must be right. ;-)


Yeah I am with ya Babs is in real trouble ... But she did make it to the Gulf (not one to boast LOL)
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Quoting belizeit:
Excuss me but are you on topic? LOl
I said it was getting dark out

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52404
Quoting VR46L:
24 HRS in the life of Barbara


Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)



The convection from back west of what was Barbara looks a lot more impressive than what was Barbara. It certainly looks like Barbara is now DOA. Since I'm the self-declared "Official Mistake Corrector" for today, I obviously must be right. ;-)
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Sometimes, it isn't nice being the center of attention

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so I was away for awhile and ya all went scratched the new page all up

it don't matter nothing this is a blog about weather or current topics regarding weather open to all and any to post information or thoughts on current weather related events no matter what the age
no matter how many posts or what degree of education

that's what makes us unique a vast about of information compiled into a reasonable forecast or prediction of a forecast

plain and simple

and if we make a few friends along the way that's the bonus


by the way its getting dark best check my radar

just in on a break here
Excuss me but are you on topic? LOl
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Not looking so lucky today.




edit: News9 chopper is streaming: Link

Quoting daddyjames:


Yes, we're hoping that what happened yesterday (individual storms merging quickly into a line) will happen again today, but it does not appear likely . . .
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Quoting yonzabam:


The folks on the weather channel seem a bit confused about tornado possibilities. Oklahoma seems the most at risk, but they're hedging their bets.


Yes, we're hoping that what happened yesterday (individual storms merging quickly into a line) will happen again today, but it does not appear likely . . .
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Quoting seminolesfan:


So, how many times are you gonna 'correct' my 'mistake'?

The pot calls the kettle black and such...

Holy cow, I'm haven't been here for a while and it looks like I missed another dustup. Tell you what, for the rest of today, I'll be the "Official Mistake Corrector". If I don't say you've made a mistake, y'all must be right. :-)
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Quoting MrMixon:
Nice - looks like they fixed the tab text issue. Mine now says "Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog..."



Mines too.
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ok so I was away for awhile and ya all went scratched the new page all up

it don't matter nothing this is a blog about weather or current topics regarding weather open to all and any to post information or thoughts on current weather related events no matter what the age
no matter how many posts or what degree of education

that's what makes us unique a vast about of information compiled into a reasonable forecast or prediction of a forecast

plain and simple

and if we make a few friends along the way that's the bonus


by the way its getting dark best check my radar

just in on a break here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52404
Quoting MrMixon:
Nice - looks like they fixed the tab text issue. Mine now says "Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog...">
Fixed for mine as well.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7507
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Right-turner.



The folks on the weather channel seem a bit confused about tornado possibilities. Oklahoma seems the most at risk, but they're hedging their bets.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Canadian is also showing 10" to 20" of rain across FL with a high tornado potential.


Unless Barbara gets revved up, it's hard to see this scenario coming true. If the Canadian is right, it looks like Florida gets all the rain and, hopefully, no tornadoes, while we in Alabama get sideswiped again. We need at least some of whatever rain comes along. My lawn is dying...well, going dormant, but it looks terrible. :-)
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Nice - looks like they fixed the tab text issue. Mine now says "Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog..."



And all was right with the world...
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Quoting seminolesfan:

They must have changed the title element in the html header for the blogs. This is the element that dictates what shows up as the title in the tab of the browser.



Yep, there is the following entry in the head section of the html file. 48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground | Weather Underground (without the spaces)
Now I'm interested in seeing what happens if I go on my blog... nah, nothing changed there. Still the same html header as usual. Or maybe it only works if you live in the US. Other countries' postcodes are not supported perhaps?

edit: html tags are disabled in the blog.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I never pinned such on you. As well as I stated that you correct every mistake to emphasize the fact that correcting one repetitively is a bad thing.


So, how many times are you gonna 'correct' my 'mistake'?

The pot calls the kettle black and such...
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Right-turner.

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If you would excuse me. I have other things I need to do today. Have a great afternoon everyone.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


How do I get pinned with both accusations of:

Not posting enough over the past 7 years.

-and-

Attempting to correct EVERY 'mistake'?


This place is certainly a zoo. :)

I never pinned such on you. As well as I stated that you correct every mistake to emphasize the fact that correcting one repetitively is a bad thing.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


How do I get pinned with both accusations of:

Not posting enough over the past 7 years.

-and-

Attempting to correct EVERY 'mistake'?


This place is certainly a zoo. :)


We get zombies on Dr. Rood's climate change blog. Swarms of 'em, at times. People keep correcting them, but they just keep on a comin'.
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205. VR46L
24 HRS in the life of Barbara


Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)


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Quoting southernstorm:
is that disturbance east of Florida a tropical wave or just storms?

Nah, just some scattered convection. Now, if the remnanants of Barbara can get out in the Gulf, we may at least see some increase in southerly flow and some more moisture transport into Alabama over the weekend. I don't think Barbara has a chance of becoming a tropical depression, but we'll take anything we can get. While the Midwest has been getting nailed, Alabama has been high and dry. It's 91 with a dewpoint of 69 right now so, if we can get some kind of dynamics started, we might be able to get some rain.
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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


Gonna be a long day here . . .

. . . and to jump into the fire (I'm already in the frying pan) I would rather have folks explain/correct me if something is wrong. With respect of course.
Not only would that allow me to grow in my knowledge, but may help others also.

So, can we stop getting all fired up, while other things are firing up?

edit: Everyone, take a deep breath, hold it, and release . . .
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFS being consistent for the last day on an Atlantic disturbance:




Yep, viewing the 12Z GFS in Hi-Res from NOMADS did rather open up fresh set of opportunities, almost evoked a "yikes"... ;) Not so much the latter track part - subject to wild speculation at this point - but, in the near term, that cycle run doesn't really completely dissipate or take the Barb remnant inland into E MX... but appears to have it regenerate in lower BOC, indicating we might see signs organization / slow development broad low pressure circulation sometime Sunday into Monday... LOL, right on cue for the Atlantic season? We'll see...

(EDIT / Add) - Okay, allow me to attack my own post, lol, to clarify.. the Barbara remnant will become too ill-defined, diffuse... so not truly a regeneration, rather a new, broad low may form in stated time frame.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Yes, but there is no reason for one to attempt to do it every time something isn't one's definition of correct. It's not a bad thing to correct someone, but it's not a good thing to Do it repetitively.


How do I get pinned with both accusations of:

Not posting enough over the past 7 years.

-and-

Attempting to correct EVERY 'mistake'?


This place is certainly a zoo. :)
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Quoting seminolesfan:
Continuing on a path of misinformation is detrimental to learning. Knowing when and where you left the path of 'correctness' is a needed detail in the search for more knowledge.

Yes, but there is no reason for one to attempt to do it every time something isn't one's definition of correct. It's not a bad thing to correct someone, but it's not a good thing to Do it repetitively.
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I would tend to think that this cluster of storms is only going to gather strength as it moves into rather volatile airmass out ahead of it. Any storms out ahead of the main line and also on the tail end of the line of storms will have a higher probability of rotating. I'm this close to calling it a day at work and go CHASE :D



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.