Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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Won't have a good picture of the short-term fate of 90L until tomorrow or Sunday to see what sheer does over the next 48 whether for the better or worse.........Pretty disorganized mess at the moment but an invest nonetheless to keep an eye on.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
Quoting zawxdsk:
I think this early morning sounding from Norman is convincing me that 10% to 15% is okay.



40.4 supercell, 500-600 SRH, 10STP....50kt shear,

ouch.....we'll see what happens 3500j/kg CAPE surface and midlevels.
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nice tropical wave I see in a long time in may
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Shear is dropping in the GOM, most likely this is a factor that will influence 90L.

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Get as low as you can and put as many walls as you can between you and the tornado.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
e the models show two storms again..but they have kept pushing the time back for both storms.
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the long rg. models said about a wk ago we were going to have a cyclone near the e gulf but i dont remember one saying it was the leftovers of barbara
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Quoting JLPR2:
I wont deny it, I'm impressed. I thought it would be fading by now.


well it does have an upper high on it protecting from any shear that may approach it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716


the pennsylvania and canada tornado outbreak.1985 5/31
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1190. zawxdsk
I think this early morning sounding from Norman is convincing me that 10% to 15% is okay.

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1189. JLPR2
I wont deny it, I'm impressed. I thought it would be fading by now.

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Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado risk is down to a 10%.


Such numbers area completely arbitrary and minute, the difference between 10 and 15 percent is negligible in the grand scheme. As demonstrated with Moore and Joplin only one tornado needs to go through a populated area to leave a lasting scar; if that happens nobody will care if wit was 10 or 15 percent.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So basically 90L sits there in that BOC jumble for a while and then hopefully comes to GA with tons of rain.

At least according to the models

Yep, check 1142 for what the models say.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
THE
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS OF MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 5000 J/KG IN OK APPEAR A LITTLE OVERDONE BASED ON REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO CENTRAL
OK...ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO TODAY IS FOR THE MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN MO TO SPREAD INTO ERN MO AND CENTRAL IL. NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
MO...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION AS THE LOW
LEVELS RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT IS WEAKENING ACROSS
WRN TN. THE CAP WILL DELAY STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW INTO OK
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED BY 21-22Z ALONG OR N OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR...AND W OF I-35
ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR. THE
STRONG-EXTREME CAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WILL FAVOR
THE PRODUCTION VERY LARGE HAIL /BASEBALL OR LARGER/...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS EARLIER IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION GIVEN THE NECESSARY
RECOVERY ACROSS ERN MO/IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER..
.AND RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FARTHER SW INTO
OK.
STILL...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY COMPENSATES TO SOME EXTENT FOR THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.
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1185. K8eCane
Quoting AussieStorm:
Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(1/2)Just cannot believe statement from guy to me yesterday "why haven't weather forecast/warnings improved so people don't die in tornado "

Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(2/2) previous tweet illustrates how simple and naive some view science and impossible expectations. More outreach/education essential


I hope marshall answered the guys statement
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@NWSMARFC
On this date in 1985, the worst tornado outbreak in PA history. Over 40 confirmed tornadoes in PA, OH, NY & Canada. 65 deaths in PA.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
So basically 90L sits there in that BOC jumble for a while and then hopefully comes to GA with tons of rain.

At least according to the models
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Friday May Hold a Substantial Tornado Threat in Midwest

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today is going to be a very serious day. If you live in central Oklahoma you need to heed the warning without delay. The veer-back-veer wind profile isn't expected to pan out today, instability is explosive, dewpoints are very high, low-level shear is much higher than yesterday, SRH is in the hundreds, lapse rates are very favorable, and there are several boundary intersections across central Oklahoma for the storms to fire off.

Honestly, this is probably the most violate setup we've seen all year. The National Weather Service in Norman is forecasting the development of tornadoes that may be violent.

Again, please, please heed the warning across the Moderate risk area.


most violate setup lol

Also, quite a few times this year the SPC has gone from a 15% to a 10% at 9am
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Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(1/2)Just cannot believe statement from guy to me yesterday "why haven't weather forecast/warnings improved so people don't die in tornado "

Marshall Shepherd ‏@DrShepherd2013
(2/2) previous tweet illustrates how simple and naive some view science and impossible expectations. More outreach/education essential
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
What exactly does veer back veer look like?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think its been 10% all a long


Was at 15% I think.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think its been 10% all a long

It was at 15% on the earlier outlook.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado risk is down to a 10%.



i think its been 10% all a long
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Tornado risk is down to a 10%.
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its that going to b invest 91L DOWN THE ROAD.
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1172. K8eCane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, you're in Norman, any further insight on what the guys there are seeing?



I hate this for Oklahoma. They have really been thru it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today is going to be a very serious day. If you live in central Oklahoma you need to heed the warning without delay. The veer-back-veer wind profile isn't expected to pan out today, instability is explosive, dewpoints are very high, low-level shear is much higher than yesterday, SRH is in the hundreds, lapse rates are very favorable, and there are several boundary intersections across central Oklahoma for the storms to fire off.

Honestly, this is probably the most violate setup we've seen all year. The National Weather Service in Norman is forecasting the development of tornadoes that may be violent.

Again, please, please heed the warning across the Moderate risk area.

Levi, you're in Norman, any further insight on what the guys there are seeing?
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Quoting Tazmanian:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products /tc13/ATL/90L.INVEST/ssmi/vis1km/20130531.1232.goe s-14.vis.1km.90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.19.5N.95.3W.1 00pc.jpg



this is what i have on 90L from that navy site that i ues dont ues the other navy site has its slow in updated ues the back up navy site


any way 90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb

Same....
02E


90L
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Sun is rising on 90L.



So what exactly do we have here then. Is that part of a trough moving in from the east south east yesterday and today that has combined with the remnant circulation of Barbara?
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1168. pcola57
90L..Ex-Barbara..

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Doubt we'll see a special TWO today seeing as tomorrow is the start of the operational hurricane season.
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Quoting Levi32:
Interpreted info (not that you guys can't already decode it lol). There's not much info on a newly-declared invest:

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2013:

Location: 19.5°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A


I get product not found when I go to your site. Mistake by NOAA or bad link?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Interestingly enough, the GFS and ECMWF are both showing a trough split by 168 - 192 hours.
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Quoting Levi32:
Interpreted info (not that you guys can't already decode it lol). There's not much info on a newly-declared invest:

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2013:

Location: 19.5°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products /tc13/ATL/90L.INVEST/ssmi/vis1km/20130531.1232.goe s-14.vis.1km.90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.19.5N.95.3W.1 00pc.jpg



this is what i have on 90L from that navy site that i ues dont ues the other navy site has its slow in updated ues the back up navy site


any way 90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


So it is Barb's remnants.

Then why isn't it apearing on NHC?




you worry too march give the nhc time its all so still the off season for the two and you wont find 90L on the nhc site any ways you find it on the nvy site


Link
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1162. Levi32
Interpreted info (not that you guys can't already decode it lol). There's not much info on a newly-declared invest:

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2013:

Location: 19.5°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L

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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?


AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB




90L is at 19.5N 95.3W so in other words its not the Africa blob
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?

90L isn't on the Navy site yet.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting IKE:



Ike Good Morning, great to see ya.

sheri
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


BOC


So it is Barb's remnants.

Then why isn't it apearing on NHC?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305311228
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Little late this year compared to the last three or four seasons.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?


BOC
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Where is 90L?

Is it the remnats of Barbara or the Africa blob?
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Remember Folks -

Dying is easy...

Comedy is hard!

Check out the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide to see how funny your plan is.


And don't forget that at least as long as Dr. Jeff's blog exists...

You'll never have to feel alone!
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If a depression or storm were to form out of 90L over time, it would count for the Atlantic Season but as a practical matter, it would be a rare E-Pac based "cross-over" system that Dr. M referred to and not otherwise indicative of a super active June/July period for the basin.....It would be an early season anomaly.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
It's one of those weekends in Orlando first word starts with G-- and the second word starts with D---. I was wondering what was going on. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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