Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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Lots of rotation. Nothing dropping. Still early, though.
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Good afternoon. The new SPC outlook has expanded the 10% hatched area considerably farther east into Arkansas:

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Looks like there MAY be some debris on the Arkansas storm
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3632
Dual pol suggests a tornado is in progress on the supercell in Arkansas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Quoting originalLT:
Post, # 322, size and strength DO matter when it comes to tornadoes. When's the last time you heard of an EF2 being a mile wide?

There was a very large probably mile wide EF2 that happened one or two years ago I just can't remember where
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Quoting Doppler22:
One question... What is keeping these things from getting real big and strong?

Looks like a tornado heading towards Pencil Bluff, AR... Strongest rotation i've seen all day

GeorgiaStormz posted this a little earlier. It explains everything.

FARTHER W...SUPERCELLS ACROSS CNTRL OK HAVE PROGRESSED OFF THE
DRYLINE INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER 18Z OUN RAOB. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS FARTHER
E...THEY ARE STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...WHERE ONE MIGHT BECOME STRONG GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE-SCALE DRYING/WARMING OCCURRING
/INFERRED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/...SUPERCELLS HAVE SHOWN EVIDENCE
OF STRUGGLING TO BECOME VERY INTENSE.
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how much longer for the next advisory from NHC
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Quoting Torito:
OOHH GEEZ... sothernillinois, please stay safe.....
NW of him, that line looked mischievous over the river. Quite strong S winds here today, 70s dew points. Tomorrow supposed to be our main day, but watches are out for extensive area of western IL.
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TROPICAL WARNING AREA ALERTS
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Caribbean,Atlantic or
Gulf of Mexico
SEASON BEGINS JUNE 1 2013
02E

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Quoting pensacolastorm:
Barbara has entered the BOC.
yes I have relocated floaters under the atlantic basin now on my page
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Quoting Doppler22:
Looks like a tornado heading towards Pencil Bluff, AR... Strongest rotation i've seen all day

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Quoting Doppler22:
Looks like a tornado heading towards Pencil Bluff, AR... Strongest rotation i've seen all day


Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7902
A tornado may be progress in Arkansas.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
-
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3632
One question... What is keeping these things from getting real big and strong?

Looks like a tornado heading towards Pencil Bluff, AR... Strongest rotation i've seen all day
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3632
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


bennington where?


This is radar image of EF4 in Bennington area in central Kansas
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here comes the outbreak!
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Levi best be on guard in Norman.

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Quoting Torito:
Lowering wall cloud is heading directly toward moore: AGAIN.
It's not going toward Moore. It's going south toward Norman.
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deleted - already posted
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OOHH GEEZ... sothernillinois, please stay safe.....
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN YELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE MISSOURI FALLS RECREATION
AREA...OR 17 MILES WEST OF MT IDA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
ODEN... MUDDY CREEK WMA... STORY...
SIMS... PINE RIDGE... PENCIL BLUFF...
GIBBS... CHULA... BIG FORK...
WHITETOWN... ROCKY SHOALS REC AREA...
RIVER BLUFF REC AREA... NORTH FORK LAKE...
LONE PINE MTN... KELLY MTN... HUDDLESTON...
HOG JAW... FULTON BRANCH REC AREA...
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376. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT of the Bahama Blob.



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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 242 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF DU QUOIN...AND MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DU QUOIN...PINCKNEYVILLE...TAMAROA AND ST. JOHNS.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3632
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Lowering wall cloud is heading directly toward moore: AGAIN.
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KFOR live stream in OKC has some good coverage now. he shows Doppler then goes to the helicopter for a visual on the tornado warned storms
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370. Skyepony (Mod)
This is the second cmc run with this scenerios of both the Bahama blob developing off ECFL, then going NE while a second storm forms off the Yukatan, then strengthens to a 'cane before Tampa. Click pic to animate.

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Barbara has entered the BOC.
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Barbara Long Floater - Infrared Channel 4 Imagery Loop

zoom active
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


bennington where?

Kansas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tornado just west of Bennington on Tuesday (the one that just sat and spun) has been rated an EF4. Maximum width of 0.85 miles. On the ground for just over an hour.



bennington where?
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... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for central Clark County until
245 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles northwest of Neillsville... and moving northeast
at 45 mph.

Hazard... developing tornado.

Source... local law enforcement.

Impact... Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed.
Significant damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will
occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals.
Extensive tree damage is likely.

At 230 PM law enforcement and spotters reported a rotating wall
cloud about 5 miles west of Neillsville over Highway 10.

This dangerous storm will be near...
cristie around 245 PM CDT.

Other locations in the warning include Highway 73 and 98.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or
outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 4475 9032 4455 9056 4455 9067 4458 9070
4466 9072 4478 9066
time... Mot... loc 1935z 207deg 37kt 4464 9059

Tornado... radar indicated
hail... 0.00in

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 233 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRASHEAR...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ROOF DAMAGE IN KIRKSVILLE.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBURG AND COLONY.
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FARTHER W...SUPERCELLS ACROSS CNTRL OK HAVE PROGRESSED OFF THE
DRYLINE INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER 18Z OUN RAOB. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS FARTHER
E.
..THEY ARE STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...WHERE ONE MIGHT BECOME STRONG GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE-SCALE DRYING/WARMING OCCURRING
/INFERRED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/...SUPERCELLS HAVE SHOWN EVIDENCE
OF STRUGGLING TO BECOME VERY INTENSE.
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The tornado just west of Bennington on Tuesday (the one that just sat and spun) has been rated an EF4. Maximum width of 0.85 miles. On the ground for just over an hour.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
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... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for eastern Grant County until
315 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Sherrill... and moving northeast at 50 mph.

Hazard... developing tornado and quarter size hail.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed.
Significant damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will
occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals.
Extensive tree damage is likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Potosi around 235 PM CDT.
Rockville around 240 PM CDT.
Lancaster around 245 PM CDT.
Fennimore around 255 PM CDT.

Other locations in the warning include Ellenboro... Lancaster
Municipal Airport... Union... Stitzer... Annaton and Preston.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or
outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 4258 9069 4264 9072 4266 9088 4268 9090
4308 9074 4296 9042 4283 9042 4257 9067
time... Mot... loc 1931z 206deg 44kt 4270 9073

Tornado... radar indicated
hail... 1.00in


Halbach


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358. Skyepony (Mod)
02E BARBARA


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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


any radar images?

Not today.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
strong thunderstorm coming near me... oh dear
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I got this photo off the the Albany, NY NWS facebook page. It shows a funnel cloud that was likely associated with the tornado in outside of Waterford, which is in Saratoga County.

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Mets on twitter are saying as the cells goes into Eastern Oklahoma, they might gain more rotation because the environment is more favorable.
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The 12Z CMC has a large storm impacting the Tampa area in 6 days.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile in New York yesterday, a mile wide EF2 that remained that wide for its entire path length of 17 miles.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile in New York yesterday, a mile wide EF2 that remained that wide for its entire path length of 17 miles.


any radar images?
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Wall cloud currently lowering in guthrie, ok.
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Currently under a Severe T-storm warning. Raining right now.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
229 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 224 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
BLACKBURN...CLEVELAND...OSAGE AND HOMINY.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3632

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.