Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

Share this Blog
48
+

The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 449 - 399

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Final advisory issued on Barbara, any redevelopment would be TD-1 instead of TD Barbara I believe.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23663
Quoting Methurricanes:
Even if she restrengthens they would use the Pacific Name?


Read the entry above,..Dr. Masters.

If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
remain as 02e Barbara 1st cross over storm under the new rules


yup. there is currently no basin that does not change the name of a cyclone if a system crosses any ocean basin in the world.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado on the ground at Ripley

Live video stream
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado on the ground near Ripley Oklahoma 1/2 mile east of...

LINK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not that it means much but Barbara's convection is mildly refiring. I hope her circulation is in tact still.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
remain as 02e Barbara 1st cross over storm under the new rules
Even if she restrengthens they would use the Pacific Name?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 328 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 327 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI - KMKX 327 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 326 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING DETROIT/PONTIAC MI - KDTX 420 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 419 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 318 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 318 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 417 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 315 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 315 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 315 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 315 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 314 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 413 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 310 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 309 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING LA CROSSE WI - KARX 308 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
TORNADO WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 307 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 304 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 302 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 259 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 257 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 257 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 256 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 254 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 249 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 348 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI - KMKX 247 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 246 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
TORNADO WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 243 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection is re-firing over the center of Barbara.



hmmm??? Going to be an interesting night if those storms continue to fire and expand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Methurricanes:
If Barbara remains a depressions, would she become TD 1 due to being in the Atlantic Basin?
remain as 02e Barbara 1st cross over storm under the new rules
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
sorry if this has been posted already..last frame of the Euro

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear Tendency show that upper level winds are slowly relaxing over the BOC. Let see what happens ater June 1. Models have been indicating a drop in shear and lowering of pressure over the Western Caribbean and Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Barbara remains a depressions, would she become TD 1 due to being in the Atlantic Basin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Oklahoma City
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50� Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Those cells are moving fast. Wouldnt be much warning for the people in there path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection is re-firing over the center of Barbara.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Damage in Oden, AR with possible people trapped
Multiple injuries
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH YELLOW WARNING RED

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
If Levi is staying in area south of Norman, he is enjoying his first tornado-warned storm right now.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7913
Reports of Damage from N. Oklahoma Storm
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
the cell south of okc might go tornadic too...tdwr

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oklahoma City
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EAST CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLEBERG...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PURCELL...NOBLE...BLANCHARD...GOLDSBY...WASHINGTON ...COLE...DIBBLE
AND MIDDLEBERG.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
426. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
413. JrWeathermanFL 8:12 PM GMT on May 30, 2013 +0
If the 5PM advisory is Barbara's last, will she be in the BOC?


yes, it's stated that she has entered the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm near Perkins, OK is producing several brief spin-ups.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region



BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)




The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: . The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Well... That escalated Quickly
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The wall cloud on the storm north of Oklahoma City is absolutely massive. Jim Cantore is covering it live on TWC.


Do big wall clouds produce big tornadoes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Gotta love fairy-tale land with the CMC. I consider fairy-tale land anything past 72 hours with the CMC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wall cloud on the storm north of Oklahoma City is absolutely massive. Jim Cantore is covering it live on TWC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
tulsa watch that cell
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting Patrap:
Barbara Long Floater - Infrared Channel 4 Imagery Loop

zoom active


Barbara is still hanging around despite it will likely be a remnant low by 5pm. As it has now emerged into the BOC. Its trying to spark some convection to its east and the rainband to its south is trying to reattach itself to the COC. If it could hug the coast shear is less than 20kts then there is a slight chance of redevelopment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the 5PM advisory is Barbara's last, will she be in the BOC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 20 knots, 1005 hPa

Dvorak Estimate: Too Weak/1.0

not sure there will be an advisory unless it's a final forecast.

I think it will be the final Advisory
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado near Oden, Arkansas has a beautiful donut hole. Likely producing a dangerous tornado.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
307 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
HOCHATOWN...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF DE QUEEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SMITHVILLE...WATSON...BEACHTON AND PLUNKETVILLE...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
News9 chaser is really excited about this one. Hanging wall cloud, rotation picking up.
Live Stream



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado is on the ground near Perkin, OK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
406. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
EP, 02, 2013053018, , BEST, 0, 185N, 945W, 20 knots, 1005 hPa

Dvorak Estimate: Too Weak/1.0

not sure there will be an advisory unless it's a final forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 300 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF AMITY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF LAKE
GREESON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
MEYERS... LOFTON... GLENWOOD...
AMITY... WELSH... SUNSHINE...
ROSBORO... POINT CEDAR... PETTYVIEW...
PEARCY... KIRBY... HEMPWALLACE...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS... BONNERDALE... SUGARLOAF KNOB...
SEGUR... ROBERTS LAKE... REYNOLDS LAKE...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
Oden, AR better take cover now!

And the other storm in N. OK looks to be heading towards Tulsa
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
Quoting Hurricane12:


I believe an hour.

thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. The new SPC outlook has expanded the 10% hatched area considerably farther east into Arkansas:



For a good reason. We got a decent rotation near Oden, Arkansas.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7913
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
how much longer for the next advisory from NHC


I believe an hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PERKINS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO FORMATION.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CUSHING...PERKINS...YALE...RIPLEY AND AGRA.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3669
Lots of rotation. Nothing dropping. Still early, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 449 - 399

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.