Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's probably a stupid question, but is subsidence the same as a cap? Water vapor imagery obviously shows a ton of subsidence, but soundings and the SPC mesoanalysis images don't particularly scream cap, seen below:

Subsidence can promote a cap, but no they aren't the same. He said something about height rises which I interpreted to be the large scale flow around the trough as you were pointing out. You're right there's not much of a cap though, would have to disagree with that part of his assesment.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
147 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
This is 240 hours on the 12z ECWMF ensemble... not similar to the operational at all.



Definitely an indication that there is significant uncertainty regarding future development in the GOM.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Indeed, as Levi also noted.

It's probably a stupid question, but is subsidence the same as a cap? Water vapor imagery obviously shows a ton of subsidence, but soundings and the SPC mesoanalysis images don't particularly scream cap, seen below:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
NHC may have jumped the gun in dissipating Barbara. I am not comfortable saying that if this system redevelops, it should be a different system.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I heard from my cousins in Canada that it is also hot up there. Looks like the summer heat wave is on full force.
we reach 30c or 86f with humidex of 98f or 37c around 3 pm today cooling now down to 84 with humidex 96
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132 hours
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Quoting ncstorm:

18Z should be interesting
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
er,it is for informative reasons the post.

I invest in people usually.

: )
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
114 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting Patrap:
bitcoin.org



What goes up must come down.
The Bitcoin is too novel to jump on for now, I would wait for stabilization of the prices and see what the real consumer demand is before investing in the currency.

Beautiful day on the plains today. TWC is having fun, never seen Forbes so excited about storms that aren't producing.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9838
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ok guys new map came out and its very interesting

Shear is falling a lot in the Gulf of Honduras and W Caribbean as the upper level high that was on top of EX-Barbara now left it and is now coming out in the Gulf of Honduras which is causing shear to fall in the area and Ex-Barbara now getting South Westerly shear GOM shear is increasing and in the BOC shear is not falling as quickly may even start to increase

vort maps show voticity building in the Honduras area also show EX-Barbara still on shore or more like half on half off

sat loop show convection in the W Caribbean continue to expand

so with this something may actually get started the W Carib/GOH in the coming days
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
102 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
bitcoin.org

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here is today's main issue:



Lots of large-scale subsidence and drying of the mid levels.
Indeed, as Levi also noted.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting washingtonian115:
Glad no real tornado's aren't forming today don't care for 'em.I'm waiting patiently for the Atlantic to wake up.The heat outside is like death.
I heard from my cousins in Canada that it is also hot up there. Looks like the summer heat wave is on full force.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
What a day..I couldnt comment like I wanted to with work and all but now I can..

18z GFS is running now

93 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting courageTX:
ok .. cut to the chase .. if whatever forms .. how long til north gulf coast landfall .. have to figure out if i have to stay in town (htown) or can leave for the weekend
Just stay calm and have a fresca as one of the bloggers on here would say.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Pat,

Don't know if you have heard of Bitcoin yet.... but I suspect Portlight might well benefit by including Bitcoin as a donation option.

There is an excellent wiki on Bitcoin, Link and as well, there are excellent forums including bitcointalk.org (which site is something like this blog's comment section... some brilliant people, but also some less so).

A huge advantage with Bitcoin is that you can get the money there NOW.

Have a look and see, and if it seems worthy of more thought, run it by some people who's thinking you respect.

Thanks for listening.


Im friends with Clif High but 501c3 donations prevent that for now.

Thanks though,I'll mention it at the conference.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting Ricki13th:


It seems that the LLC is not define or it now longer have a close surface center anymore also, surface obs is showing it does not have tropical cyclone winds even though satellite presentation shows it has a good structure with convection refiring near the mid level circulation. If this can persist and continue to fire up we will likely see at least a 30% chance of redevelopment in the Atlantic Two coming up at 8pm.


The "point" here is that it's never been an unorganized system after crossing the isthmus. And, by my definition that doesn't make it dissipated. I don't care about the technical characteristics of whether or not there was a closed low-level center, etc, etc. That is beside the point. This is still the same fairly well-organized system that was a hurricane on the Pacific side. Yes, it's weaker, considerably weaker, but unorganized or dissipated are not words to describe it. It has not become random, left-over unorganized energy, can be no disputing that.





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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
459 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARLOW...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARLOW...BRAY...VELMA AND COX CITY.
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Glad no real tornado's aren't forming today don't care for 'em.I'm waiting patiently for the Atlantic to wake up.The heat outside is like death.
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High quality mobile video streams from two chasers in OK:
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Here is today's main issue:



Lots of large-scale subsidence and drying of the mid levels.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting wxchaser97:
Just had my first good thunderstorm in a while. A nice heavy downpour and a decent amount of thunder and lightning. More widespread storm and severe storm threat exists Friday and Saturday.


Ha, that's what I woke up to this morning. Heard a rumble of thunder, got out of bed, went to check the radar, and then continued on with my normal day. Got about .2 from a glancing blow. Not bad.
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Quoting Chicklit:


That looks like Barbara in the GOM to me Keeper.


yeah whats left of it anyway

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
The first TWO of 2013 could be out in about an hour, if the NHC chooses to make one on the remnants of Barbara. Im guessing it would be a 20% Circle.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Interesting. Do those NWP centers also use observations from the hurricane hunters?


That I don't know for sure but I would assume so. There is not a lot of hurricane hunter data that goes into the models, with the exception of the newer versions of HWRF that use the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR). TDR is available only from the NOAA P3's.
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Quoting Levi32:


We've had the shearing to support strong tornadoes all afternoon, and it's been increasing as the low-level winds back and get more perpendicular to the dryline. The problem so far today seems to be capping. Subtle height rises as the shortwave lifts northeastward seem to be limiting updraft strength. We've only ever had 3 or 4 strong storms going at any one time so far (in OK) due to limited forcing, and none of them have been particularly explosive. The dryline will retreat soon though. We might have a shot at one more round of initiation southwest of the metro later this evening, but it doesn't look super promising.
Well the shear could support a strong tornado but its not particularly favorable for one. And yea, interesting note about the instability. Soundings aren't really picking up on that (plenty CAPE, minimal CIN on the sounding above), but satellite clearly shows things haven't really been explosive over the area.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Just had my first good thunderstorm in a while. A nice heavy downpour and a decent amount of thunder and lightning. More widespread storm and severe storm threat exists Friday and Saturday.
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Quoting Levi32:


We've had the shearing to support strong tornadoes all afternoon, and it's been increasing as the low-level winds back and get more perpendicular to the dryline. The problem so far today seems to be capping. Subtle height rises as the shortwave lifts northeastward seem to be limiting updraft strength. We've only ever had 3 or 4 strong storms going at any one time so far (in OK) due to limited forcing, and none of them have been particularly explosive. The dryline will retreat soon though. We might have a shot at one more round of initiation southwest of the metro later this evening, but it doesn't look super promising.


So does this mean that Tornado Tidbits is soon in the offering, as well as Tropical Tidbits? Thanks for the update, glad you are getting the experience (well, sort of . . . if you know what I mean)!
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting Patrap:
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Pat,

Don't know if you have heard of Bitcoin yet.... but I suspect Portlight might well benefit by including Bitcoin as a donation option.

There is an excellent wiki on Bitcoin, Link and as well, there are excellent forums including bitcointalk.org (which site is something like this blog's comment section... some brilliant people, but also some less so).

A huge advantage with Bitcoin is that you can get the money there NOW.

Have a look and see, and if it seems worthy of more thought, run it by some people who's thinking you respect.

Thanks for listening.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Okay. It must be pretty hellish for some people living in the US at times. I live in Scotland, and we get nothing like the weather you folks get over there. We complain about the lack of sunshine, but we don't know how lucky we are, really.


Lack of sunshine and cold! . . . that would be death to me (I am a relatively recent transplant from SoFL).

We're good.

I was not trying to be morally superior, and if I came off that way, accept my apologies.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes they use it, when the first Global Hawk dropsonde data came out it was NCEP that was not able to use the data while the others could!
Interesting. Do those NWP centers also use observations from the hurricane hunters?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting TomTaylor:
18z out of Norman, Oklahoma. Veer-back-veer profile still present in the 0-6km layer. Decent shear in the lowest km layer but not much more from 0-3km as noted by SRH. Shear in the lowest 0-3km is supportive for tornadoes, but 179 SRH isn't anything special. From 3km to 6km not much more shear and the directional shear goes back on itself (backing winds). Overall, shear profile is supportive for tornadoes but nothing crazy. This translates to tornadoes occurring but overall tracks shouldn't be too long. The potential for violent tornadoes also exists, but obviously more shear would be more favorable.



We've had the shearing to support strong tornadoes all afternoon, and it's been increasing as the low-level winds back and get more perpendicular to the dryline. The problem so far today seems to be capping. Subtle height rises as the shortwave lifts northeastward seem to be limiting updraft strength. We've only ever had 3 or 4 strong storms going at any one time so far (in OK) due to limited forcing, and none of them have been particularly explosive.

We almost had a nice view on the observation deck of the storm that came south of Norman earlier, but it cut east and went too far south. The sirens actually went off for a moment here when the tornado warning on it was issued, which was funny since we were outside the polygon. The dryline will retreat soon though. We might have a shot at one more round of initiation southwest of the metro later this evening, but it doesn't look super promising.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GOES 15 in Super Rapid Scan Operation


Link


Is good news that they are testing GOES-13.Hopefully all goes well and comes into operation by June 5th.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Has anyone tried to ban a mod from their blog?

the mods see all
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Quoting daddyjames:


Not morally superior, just giving you how I felt - actual relief when I saw the lines forming yesterday.

And I do know people that live in the regions that experienced heavy hail, and the potential for a tornado. So I am genuinely concerned for them.

And, we still have storms developing to the west of us - and things are supposed to (potentially) be worse (or better - depends on your POV) - as far as the possibility for a tornado forming.



Okay. It must be pretty hellish for some people living in the US at times. I live in Scotland, and we get nothing like the weather you folks get over there. We complain about the lack of sunshine, but we don't know how lucky we are, really.
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GOES 15 in Super Rapid Scan Operation


Link
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Quoting courageTX:
ok .. cut to the chase .. if whatever forms .. how long til north gulf coast landfall .. have to figure out if i have to stay in town (htown) or can leave for the weekend

If I were you I'd leave for the weekend, if you've got plans, that is.
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18z out of Norman, Oklahoma. Veer-back-veer profile still present in the 0-6km layer. Decent shear in the lowest km layer but not much more from 0-3km as noted by SRH. Shear in the lowest 0-3km is supportive for tornadoes, but 179 SRH isn't anything special. From 3km to 6km not much more shear and the directional shear goes back on itself (backing winds). Overall, shear profile is supportive for tornadoes but nothing crazy. This translates to tornadoes occurring but overall tracks shouldn't be too long. The potential for violent tornadoes also exists, but obviously more shear would be more favorable.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That looks like Barbara in the GOM to me Keeper.

But windshear as predicted will make short work of whatever is left imho.
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I have a friend down in Sargent, TX who has high water marks on his back door with the name and date of the TS or hurricane that caused them. They have hit there every five years like clockwork since at least Alicia. The last one was Ike in 2008. It's been five years. Looks like the upper Texas coast is due for some sort of tropical system this season. Maybe Barb is it.
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Quoting yonzabam:


I'm not disappointed at all. Although I can see how the post might have been interpreted as that. I've seen the horrendous destruction tornadoes inflict. But, if they're going to happen, they're going to happen. Same with hurricanes. And that's why people come on here.

No need to get morally superior about it.


Not morally superior, just giving you how I felt - actual relief when I saw the lines forming yesterday.

And I do know people that live in the regions that experienced heavy hail, and the potential for a tornado. So I am genuinely concerned for them.

And, we still have storms developing to the west of us - and things are supposed to (potentially) be worse (or better - depends on your POV) - as far as the possibility for a tornado forming.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't sweat it right now.I say wait till the storm actually forms and then think about your plans because the models could drop the storm all the same.


ok i'm assuming that i'll be good through monday ..
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We had cool wet spring in central Texas. Makes me think early tropical. Waters warm and everything shifted a few weeks. Cool longer but hotter south and big heat up early summer. I predict a climate change early system this year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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