Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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649. wunderkidcayman
10:56 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting Torito:
TR-BARBARA still seems to want to persist and convection refuses to go away. pretty interesting to watch right now.

most of that is land based convection and don't have anything to do with EX-Barbara
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12140
648. Dakster
10:56 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting mikatnight:


New Yorkers. They're moving down here by the thousands to escape the highest taxed state in the union.


We are used to it. They spend their money down here so its ok.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10399
647. Hurricanes101
10:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
System the GFS is showing is a highly sheared, weak system

the Low is way off the convection, other models not really agreeing

I think we will see something, but nothing is clear at this point.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7813
646. Torito
10:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Did you hear though? Apparently, pioneer 7, the presumed dead (no contact) transfered a single data point back to earth? It shocked alot of the people in the space center, as it couldnt make contact for more than 6 years until now. Maybe the transmissions were blocked somehow by space derbis/ planetary bodies?
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
645. washingtonian115
10:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting daddyjames:


Hey, the rest of that remark is insensitive, and really not appropriate for this blog.
Oh geez I was so going to go into detail about that stuff (rolling eyes)..the blog is just so sensitive nowadays..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
644. Astrometeor
10:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2013


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 550
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 40 MILES WEST OF LAFAYETTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...WW 251...WW
252...WW 253...WW 254...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 00-02Z TIME. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...KERR
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
643. Dakster
10:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
"hardcore record digging"...

My mind just wanders at the thought of what that looks like.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10399
642. Astrometeor
10:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2013


Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
641. mikatnight
10:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting Dakster:


For?


New Yorkers. They're moving down here by the thousands to escape the highest taxed state in the union.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
640. Torito
10:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
and yea, sorry for the absence. i was "hardcore record digging" for barbara crossing where it did and remaining a named storm.

Interesting news: I have found nothing, so it may have a record there. :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
639. Astrometeor
10:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
WHITESIDE IL-
542 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WHITESIDE COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PROPHETSTOWN...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WHITESIDE COUNTY SHERRIFF CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR
INTERSECTION OF SPRING HILL AND VAN DAM ROADS NEAR
PROPHETSTOWN.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISON...ROCK FALLS...STERLING...EMERSON...COLETA...ROUND GROVE...
AGNEW...MALVERN...COMO...GALT...WHITE PIGEON...GRIMES ADDITION...
WHITESIDE COUNTY AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PARK...YEOWARD ADDITION AND
PENROSE.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
638. Astrometeor
10:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-GRADY OK-CARTER OK-
542 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN GARVIN...NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GRADY AND NORTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOSTER...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BRAY.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO THREE INCHES
IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SEVERAL STORM SPOTTERS HAVE
REPORTED FUNNELS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS WITH THESE TWO
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAY...TATUMS...RATLIFF CITY...FOSTER AND PERNELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO MAY BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
637. Torito
10:49 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
TR-BARBARA still seems to want to persist and convection refuses to go away. pretty interesting to watch right now.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
636. mikatnight
10:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
635. ncstorm
10:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
18z Navgem is running..

at 144 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
634. Dakster
10:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting K8eCane:
Watch Out Florida


For?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10399
633. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
632. daddyjames
10:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even the models know that SOMETHING BAD ALWAYS HAPPENS IN FLORIDA . . .


Hey, the rest of that remark is insensitive, and really not appropriate for this blog.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
631. Astrometeor
10:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
630. mikatnight
10:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
What's unusual (correct me if I'm wrong) is ECMWF getting on board...

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
629. wunderkidcayman
10:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
NHC did the right thing honestly I don't even think the spin we see on satellite is in low levels-surface level more like Mid-Low levels surface obs show something else
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12140
628. tropicfreak
10:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
204


228


240


Hour 228... right on top of me and I get dumped on. Please let this hold true! I don't want another drought this summer! We've gone all week so far without rain here in central VA.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
627. mikatnight
10:44 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
CMC is nothing, if not persistent!

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
626. Patrap
10:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
625. mikatnight
10:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
624. Astrometeor
10:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
623. moonlightcowboy
10:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting tropicfreak:
Convection getting going again, but this is more land-induced thunderstorms, caused by daytime heating. Not necessarily directly attributed to the storm itself.





That and moisture is piling up in the Caribbean and GoM from the easterly monsoonal gyre.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
622. washingtonian115
10:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
ha..I had to giggle at the bolded statement
WPC extended discussion

THE SUPPRESSED
WESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A BUFFER FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO--INCLUDING THE REMAINS OF
BARBARA DRIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN. THE 00Z/30
DETERMINISTIC GEM GLOBAL SHOWED ITS USUAL BIAS OF SLINGING HEALTHY
LOOKING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EARNEST AT THE UNITED STATES--BOTH
OVER CAPE HATTERAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Even the models know that SOMETHING BAD ALWAYS HAPPENS IN FLORIDA.Anything from child murders,political matters storms and so on and so on.
Quoting ncstorm:
192 hours

Looks sheared to me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
621. ncstorm
10:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
204


228


240
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
620. Patrap
10:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

229
WFUS54 KLZK 302237
TORLZK
ARC113-302300-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0041.130530T2237Z-130530T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
537 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 535 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARTLEY...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF MENA. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
CANEY CREEK WILDERNESS... SHADY...
HARTLEY... COSSATOT RIVER STATE PARK...
BARD SPRINGS RECREATION AREA...
ROARING BRANCH NATURAL AREA...
SHADY LAKE RECREATION AREA... BIG FORK...
HEATH VALLEY... NAZARENE CAMPGROUND...
LOST MTN... WEST HANNA MTN... TURNERS MTN...
RASPBERRY MTN... NICHOLS MTN... LEADER MTN...
KATY MTN... HURRICANE KNOB...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3458 9393 3435 9394 3435 9423 3440 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 249DEG 16KT 3438 9415
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
619. Astrometeor
10:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2013


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN OK THROUGH THE NWRN HALF OF AR INTO SRN
MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 253...

VALID 302223Z - 310030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 253 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO MID EVENING FROM ERN OK...MUCH OF WRN AR INTO
SRN MO. THE GREATEST SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH STORMS
FROM EXTREME SERN OK INTO SWRN THROUGH WCNTRL AR...WITH A SECONDARY
AREA FROM NERN OK...NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO.

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT OR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN AR INTO SERN OK.
NEAR SFC WINDS ARE BACKED TO ESELY JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 0-2
KM HODOGRAPHS ARE MAXIMIZED FROM EXTREME SERN OK INTO SWRN AR AT THE
INTERSECTION OF THE LLJ AND THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...HODOGRAPHS ARE
ALSO MODERATELY LARGE FARTHER NORTH INTO NWRN AR...SWRN MO AND NERN
OK ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL AR WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD ALSO PERSIST IN BROKEN
LINE FROM SWRN MO INTO NERN OK...AS WELL AS WITH THE MORE DISCRETE
ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.

..DIAL.. 05/30/2013
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
618. daddyjames
10:37 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
ha..I had to giggle at the bolded statement

DETERMINISTIC GEM GLOBAL SHOWED ITS USUAL BIAS OF SLINGING HEALTHY
LOOKING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EARNEST AT THE UNITED STATES--BOTH
OVER CAPE HATTERAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.


LOL - thanks for the laugh - what do the developers of the Global GEM have against NC and FL?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
617. ncstorm
10:36 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Day 7
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
616. MrMixon
10:35 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
If I understand what I'm seeing correctly it looks like the debilitating effects of shear on the western edge of ex-Barbara are becoming apparent in the last few frames of post #606.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
615. ncstorm
10:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
192 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
614. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
613. ncstorm
10:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
ha..I had to giggle at the bolded statement
WPC extended discussion

THE SUPPRESSED
WESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A BUFFER FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO--INCLUDING THE REMAINS OF
BARBARA DRIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN. THE 00Z/30
DETERMINISTIC GEM GLOBAL SHOWED ITS USUAL BIAS OF SLINGING HEALTHY
LOOKING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EARNEST AT THE UNITED STATES--BOTH
OVER CAPE HATTERAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
612. K8eCane
10:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Watch Out Florida
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3189
611. tropicfreak
10:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Shear most definitely on the decrease... could get interesting over the next few days.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
610. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:32 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
609. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
608. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
607. ncstorm
10:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
183 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
606. Patrap
10:28 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
605. ncstorm
10:27 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
177 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
604. tropicfreak
10:27 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Convection getting going again, but this is more land-induced thunderstorms, caused by daytime heating. Not necessarily directly attributed to the storm itself.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
603. ncstorm
10:25 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
168 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
602. nrtiwlnvragn
10:24 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Under a flood advisory..... been getting trained all day.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 602 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER
PORTIONS OF CUTLER BAY AND PALMETTO BAY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO IMPACT PRINCETON...GOULDS...AND COUNTRY WALK.



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11209
601. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:23 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
159 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15657
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's probably a stupid question, but is subsidence the same as a cap? Water vapor imagery obviously shows a ton of subsidence, but soundings and the SPC mesoanalysis images don't particularly scream cap, seen below:

Subsidence can promote a cap, but no they aren't the same. He said something about height rises which I interpreted to be the large scale flow around the trough as you were pointing out. You're right there's not much of a cap though, would have to disagree with that part of his assesment.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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