Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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I know this blog doesn't allow humor any more but I couldn't help it..




NOTE: Flood and house insurance not available.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting Astrometeor:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES WEST OF SALEM ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252...WW
253...WW 254...WW 255...WW 256...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE ST.
LOUIS AREA MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO...AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION
GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH A BELT OF 40+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21040.


Yeah... no Cardinals game in St. Louis tonight, sadly.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...FAR NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310041Z - 310245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT


SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SVR
SIZES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. GIVEN A LIMITED DURATION
FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PART OF
EAST CENTRAL TO SERN NEB INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ENEWD INTO ERN NEB/NERN KS. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
TROUGH AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING
EWD ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THIS RECENT RAMP UP IN TSTM INTENSITY/
COVERAGE. 00Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE STORM MODE WILL
REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS/KERR.. 05/31/2013
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So, tonight was a senior awards night at my school, where I recieved honors cord, high honors tassel, NHS cord, and 2 scholarships totaling of $1,000. My final GPA weighted should be at 4.0, but I'll find out when final report card comes out. My class rank was in the 30s out of 280 students. And the best thing? No one expected me to graduate from high school 13 years ago as mentioned in my blog. I don't really want to brag about my honors, but I'm so happy and proud of it that I got to share the news! I will tell you this... getting the cords and tassels make the struggles in high school so worth it, so keep up the hard work to those who are younger than me! You're almost there.


Anyway, what's going on with the weather?
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES WEST OF SALEM ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252...WW
253...WW 254...WW 255...WW 256...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE ST.
LOUIS AREA MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO...AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION
GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH A BELT OF 40+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21040.
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An interesting website. Link
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The little engine that has not given up yet...
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XX/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I'm having a feeling that things are going to get real interesting around these parts during the next several days?
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790. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Sandbagging?

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH POSSIBLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MEANDER E TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE.


Ambiguation?
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30/2345 UTC 19.4N 94.0W TOO WEAK BARBARA -- Atlantic
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
730 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 730 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTY AT 740 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY AT 740 PM CDT
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A beautiful LP supercell structure; you can see the "barber pole" rotation on live video. Incredible amount of spin going on in the entire cell:

supercell
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786. whitewabit (Mod)
Peoria, Illinois (Airport)

Updated: 9 min 54 sec ago


Light Rain
63 °F

Light Rain Mist


Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the WSW


Pressure: 29.86 in (Rising)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 7.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3300 ft

Mostly Cloudy 4300 ft

Overcast 6000 ft

(Above Ground Level)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:49 PM PDT on May 30, 2013
Clear
84 °F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 58 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 12.0 mph
Pressure: 29.74 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 4.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

was 87.3 here today, 89 at the Airport...
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
726 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 724 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL BRIEF TORNADOES
AND COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LOCUST
GROVE...PEGGS...ROSE...LEACH...OAKS AND TWIN OAKS.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Patrap:
Sandbagging?

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH POSSIBLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MEANDER E TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE.


Why would somebody sandbag when they can watch the 24hr movie on the storm and see her completely discrete with no competing lows anywhere in her vicinity at any point in her journey? I just don't understand...
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The blogg just died
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CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
713 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN MAYES AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES...

AT 712 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MAZIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL BRIEF TORNADOES AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT
ANY TIME.


SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MURPHY...
ROSE...LOCUST GROVE AND PEGGS.
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Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Thursday 30 May 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:81.5°F
Dewpoint:64.2°F
Humidity:56%
Wind:SSW 15 mph
Humidex: 92
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting AussieStorm:

Seems like you were getting all fired up tell in people to put me on ignore.... I always check to make sure any of my posts don't cause problems. It was fine to me but obviously not for others, hence I was able to fix it.
Aussie no worry i hope you slept well and have a good day today, Goodmorning
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Spotters are reporting a large multi-vortex tornado 2 miles south of Mazie, Oklahoma.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
776. beell
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't look like an incredibly potent front.


Probably won't be. But maybe enough to form a surface trough. IF a lower tropospheric disturbance imposes on such a surface feature along with a passing trough that brought the front into the gulf to begin with, it could result in a blob alert. And a disturbance at the tail of a frontal boundary would not be a rare event in the GOM for early June.

Idle chatter on this end. Pretty shaky scenario 7 days out put forth here. Skepticism is a requirement!
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Quoting stormhank:
I saw some recent model runs earlier today that showed some type developement in the gulf and heading northeast ..anyoen fell this could actually happen? thanks for any info


The pattern has, and continues to favor it. The GFS and Canadian ensembles continue to indicate lowering pressures in that area next week. Upper-level winds will be slowly improving as well, although they will by no means be nonzero like we see in August or September.
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Quoting oldnewmex:
Does anyone here see much threat from the blowup in eastern BOC? It looks pretty impressive.


Daytime heating turning into thunderstorms. Don't see any threat with them in relation to us.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




watch it dont get all fire up overe nothing




Seems like you were getting all fired up tell in people to put me on ignore.... I always check to make sure any of my posts don't cause problems. It was fine to me but obviously not for others, hence I was able to fix it.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN-SRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 251...

VALID 310004Z - 310100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 251 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFO/S ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL BY 0030Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL
IL...THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS SPREAD
E/NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IL.

DISCUSSION...AT 2345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN SWRN IL /SE OF KSTL/ WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING
NNEWD AT 40 KT. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT PERSISTING
ACROSS IL THIS EVENING...THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY
INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IL HAS YET TO BE CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED.
THUS...DESPITE SOME WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING /BEYOND THE
01Z EXPIRATION OF WW 251. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR DECREASES
WITH EWD EXTENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
THE MID EVENING FOR THE ERN TIER OF IL COUNTIES TO BE INCLUDED IN A
WATCH AS WELL.

THE LINE OF STORMS IN NRN IL SHOULD MOVE INTO WW 255 BY 01Z...SUCH
THAT THIS PORTION OF IL MAY NOT REQUIRE A NEW WW.

..PETERS/KERR.. 05/31/2013
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Does anyone here see much threat from the blowup in eastern BOC? It looks pretty impressive.
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I saw some recent model runs earlier today that showed some type developement in the gulf and heading northeast ..anyoen fell this could actually happen? thanks for any info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

#1
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Sandbagging?

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH POSSIBLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MEANDER E TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
Quoting Astrometeor:
There is a confirmed tornado (per TWC) in the storm near Tulsa.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTAGUE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY AT 720 PM CDT



God I wish Oklahoma could catch a break
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Once again. Sorry for stuffing up the blog for a few minutes. No harm was intended.
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 9N21W TO 7N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W 5N43W 3N49W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 2W-20W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA AND S OF 10N W OF 51W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N46W TO 6N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. DRY STABLE AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W GULF
W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W CONTINUING
N OVER THE E CONUS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA THAT CROSSED S MEXICO OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS IS IS MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AT
30/2100 UTC WAS LOCATED AT 18.5N94.5W. HOWEVER...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED INTO THE GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N
BETWEEN 93W-95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 18N91W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF
22N. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N84W ALONG THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH POSSIBLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MEANDER E TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WITH BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO CUBA BETWEEN 77W-85W
INCLUDING AND JAMAICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 77W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
ENTIRE ISLAND WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS INTENSE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N75W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N77W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N65W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 70W-75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N70W 23N77W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 27N56W AND FROM 31N45W TO 26N47W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGHS ANCHORED BY SURFACE
HIGHS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've fixed it so chill




watch it dont get all fire up overe nothing



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I'm using IE. Was screwed up for a minute but fine now.
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There is a confirmed tornado (per TWC) in the storm near Tulsa.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTAGUE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY AT 720 PM CDT
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im using chrome and eventually it messed my page up too, but all better now
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Strange how it didn't affect us using chrome. only FF or IE.

I use Chrome and it stretched my blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
708 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN MAYES AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES...

AT 703 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MAZIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
CHOUTEAU...MURPHY...ROSE...LOCUST GROVE AND PEGGS.
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Quoting Patrap:


no problem, it happens to All in time

Strange how it didn't affect us using chrome. only FF or IE.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry about that. It was fine to me as I am using chrome. All fixed now.


This blog has problems with IE and Firefox, so I end up using chrome as well. This isn't anything new though. (This isn't the only site that has issues with IE and Firefox)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry about that. It was fine to me as I am using chrome. All fixed now.


no problem, it happens to All in time
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
Quoting KoritheMan:
With the disappointing failure of Barbara to make it into the Gulf of Mexico as a viable tropical cyclone, and Invest 91E gradually dissipating amidst unfavorable environmental conditions, I will be taking a temporary and much-needed break from forecasting, pending the arrival of the purported Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone seen in the model fields next week.

This does not mean, however, that I have in any fashion taken my eyes off things. I will still be analyzing synoptic and satellite data on a daily basis, and checking the models. I will also be watching any severe weather we get during that time, and if I see anything I find particularly interesting or relevant with the two, I will post something about it.

Just saying. You all have a good day.


Can't say I didn't warn you. :)

and I agree that we still need to keep an eye on things.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting Tazmanian:



AussieStorm did when he posted his link



the mods sould re move his post too fix the blog

I've fixed it so chill
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Quoting Patrap:
that link to hurricane hollow is skewing the comments.




you can thank AussieStorm for that he was the one that did it




too all too fix it you can wait for it too go to the next page or you can out AussieStorm on ingore list for right now and re move him later
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Sorry about that. It was fine to me as I am using chrome. All fixed now.
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click hide on post 729 and the page resizes
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
AussieStorm in #729 is the problem. Just minus and hide that comment, and all will be well...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.