Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Overhead Clouds at Sunset (Nikongranny)
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

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1035. MahFL
Barb seems to be blowing up again as she re-enters warm water.
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Some of you who scratch your heads over your impressions of a "bust" day, to learn more about severe might you might want to decipher the SPC discussions on the outlooks, the watches and the MCDs. Roger Edwards discussions are head-scratchers sometimes but you can learn from them - if you truly want to learn.

(SPC link added)

Speaking of the "bust" yesterday, given this 1:23 AM forecast for the May 15-17th outbreak this year, what are the odds that those horse barns would be at the center of not just the path, but of the track, also?

That's arguably like a TORCON of 100. It means danger on a scale that is rarely seen, and in a year of almost nothing else.

Someone please tell me, what are the statistics for 1% storms in a slow year vs a busy one? How rare is it, to see such violence in a slow year?











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Seems to still have some twist ti it on the left side,the rainband anyway.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5115
Some models starting to pick up on two systems in the Atlantic 144 hours out (Wednesday).

*here*

The First forming south of Florida and moving up the east coast as a weak Tropical Depression or Invest, probably wont strengthen much if that's the case.

The second one is much more interesting, Shows a depression forming in the Gulf from by Tuesday and possible Storm by Wednesday night, last few frames are showing some potentially quick intensification of this system. Which is right in line with favorable conditions forming across the Atlantic in that time frame.

I wouldn't hold my breath on either of these systems just yet though.
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1030. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
8:30 AM IST May 30 2013
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over coastal West Bengal and neighborhood moved westward and now lays near 22.3N 87.5E, about 30 km southeast of Midnapore, West Bengal.

The system is likely to move west northwestward and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during the next 24 hours.
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looking at satellite looks like barbara trying to for an eye again lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
ok surface obs that I can easliy find around Barbara's LLCOC the winds are no stronger than 30mph
this may or may not change as it moves over water
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Click for full text and graphics 0100 cdt Day 1 convective outlook valid after 7 am cdt

... UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAY...GEOMETRY
OF FLOW RELATED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL RENDER
DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO
DRYLINE...INDICATING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORM CHARACTER
AND SUPERCELL MODE.

HOWEVER...SOME CAVEATS ARE EVIDENT THAT MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL
TO INTRODUCE MDT-RISK PROBABILITIES YET...AND WHICH ALSO CAST GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ON SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N OVER MO VALLEY..NRN PLAINS
AND CORN BELT. THESE INCLUDE...

... AS SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES GET BETTER RESOLVED TODAY...NARROW
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO AND/OR LARGER-HAIL PROBABILITIES MAY
BECOME NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OK AND KS.

..EDWARDS/BUNTING.. 05/30/2013

Some of you who scratch your heads over your impressions of a "bust" day, to learn more about severe might you might want to decipher the SPC discussions on the outlooks, the watches and the MCDs. Roger Edwards discussions are head-scratchers sometimes but you can learn from them - if you truly want to learn.

(SPC link added)
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NHC kicks Barbara in the But and puts the energy in a surface trof in extreme W Gulf of Honduras/Belize Coast and shifts it E off the Coast

24


48


72
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Be back in 6 hours to see how things turned out.

I'll be here waiting
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Be back in 6 hours to see how things turned out.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

As soon as it emerges as a tropical cyclone in the bay of Campeche the NHC will start issuing advisories on Barbara from the Atlantic side. It's just the last crucial hours that will determine if we get our first storm or not.

IF is a very big key here
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
as soon as Barbara step off into BOC its gonna hit between 20-50kt of shear thats if Barbara makes it into the BOC

As soon as it emerges as a tropical cyclone in the bay of Campeche the NHC will start issuing advisories on Barbara from the Atlantic side. It's just the last crucial hours that will determine if we get our first storm or not.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

She's experienced the worst of her traverse across isthmus. She's approaching water again and also Duirnal Maximum.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
as soon as Barbara step off into BOC its gonna hit between 20-50kt of shear thats if Barbara makes it into the BOC

Plus she is still on land she don't want land
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


:) Have a good sleep. Stay safe out there!
Thank you.
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as soon as Barbara step off into BOC its gonna hit between 20-50kt of shear thats if Barbara makes it into the BOC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not funny at all


I see it thou I wonder how long it gonna last

She's experienced the worst of her traverse across isthmus. She's approaching water again and also Duirnal Maximum.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Popcorn convection firing close to Barbara's center. By golly she might've did what said couldn't be done! Link

and its still W of the COC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Well, g'nite, mlc.
Good to see you.


:) Have a good sleep. Stay safe out there!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1015. Skyepony (Mod)
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Well, g'nite, mlc.
Good to see you.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

+1000

not funny at all

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Popcorn convection firing close to Barbara's center. By golly she might've did what said couldn't be done! Link

I see it thou I wonder how long it gonna last
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Music. Nevermind. I see a Tornado Warning out of Tulsa...

1235 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1232 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF GORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

Wedding in Cherokee County

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new lat&long
17.5N 93.9W
moving N
down to 45mph
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
1010. Skyepony (Mod)
Barbara on MIMIC.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hey, mlc.
:)

Just waitin for the 0100 convective outlook. Why don't you play some music?


My Youtube is broken. :(

About to find some shuteye, large morning ahead. Just lurking 'til I saw your quick quip! :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
Popcorn convection firing close to Barbara's center. By golly she might've did what said couldn't be done! Link
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS
BARBARA WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 93.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

Add:
YES....YES....YES------->Close to CAYMANS.....YES

+1000
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



...one in every crowd! ;)
Hey, mlc.
:)

Just waitin for the 0100 convective outlook. Why don't you play some music?
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Barbara has about an hour or two longer to hold before reemerging. Still spinning away. Link
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

Add:
YES....YES....YES------->Close to CAYMANS.....YES
I hate that movie. That's the only scene that's any good.
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Quoting Skyepony:


This I could see this happening, more so than a regeneration or reprise.

it may but the chances look kinda low at this time
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting Hugo5:
possible twin tornados near OKC.
Nothing anywhere resembling a tornado on the radar near OKC, and I hear they're looking to replace Jay Leno if you need a job.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Had it been "Close to CAYMAN'S or wunderkidcayman" Then yeah. CAYMANS is islands.

its still in my name and its still racist against the Islands and its people
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
That depends on how well she can swim.



...one in every crowd! ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
997. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think NHC is more on the lines with if LLC is still a LLC with 30kt winds (a tropical cyclone)then its still Barbara


This I could see this happening, more so than a regeneration or reprise.
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
What happens when Barbara ends up in the GOM?
That depends on how well she can swim.
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Quoting Skyepony:

Interesting, most get renamed. It would be easier not to from a disseminating perspective.

I think NHC is more on the lines with if LLC is still a LLC with 30kt winds (a tropical cyclone)then its still Barbara
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
994. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


wait what!!! so I am not a member!?!? yes it was directed to me he was quoting me


Had it been "Close to CAYMAN'S or wunderkidcayman" Then yeah. CAYMANS is islands.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The 00ZCMC runs lately have had storms that get weakened or dropped on the 12Z runs. Here's latest. Click pick to go to page.





It's suggestive but clothed, nothing foul, not directed at a member here..I don't think I'm allowed to remove it but the community can certainly flag it out if it wants. Sometimes the community is harsher than what the mods would dole.

I believe you as a moderator you should have the power to do so check and see
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

still I'll flag it and flag it again and again if I have too


That is what the ! is for admins to decide.

Anyways, falling asleep at the keyboard, so good night everyone. Stay safe and may the Hurricane gods be kind to the people that will be experiencing it.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
991. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nope NHC said even if it was to redevelop which seem unlikely at this time(looks to be more dead IMO) it would keep name

Interesting, most get renamed. It would be easier not to from a disseminating perspective.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The 00ZCMC runs lately have had storms that get weakened or dropped on the 12Z runs. Here's latest. Click pick to go to page.





It's suggestive but clothed, nothing foul, not directed at a member here..I don't think I'm allowed to remove it but the community can certainly flag it out if it wants. Sometimes the community is harsher than what the mods would dole.


wait what!!! so I am not a member!?!? yes it was directed to me he was quoting me
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
Quoting Skyepony:



If it's still together or has a reprise it probibly would be renamed. Lot of shear.

nope NHC said even if it was to redevelop which seem unlikely at this time(looks to be more dead IMO) it would keep name
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
988. Skyepony (Mod)
The 00ZCMC runs lately have had storms that get weakened or dropped on the 12Z runs. Here's latest. Click pick to go to page.




Quoting wunderkidcayman:

still I'll flag it and flag it again and again if I have too

It's suggestive but clothed, nothing foul, not directed at a member here..I don't think I'm allowed to remove it but the community can certainly flag it out if it wants. Sometimes the community is harsher than what the mods would dole.
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Quoting Dakster:


I don't think it was meant as sexual harassment against a country or its people - just a sexual undertone.

still I'll flag it and flag it again and again if I have too
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11053
986. Skyepony (Mod)


Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
What happens when Barbara ends up in the GOM?

If it's still together or has a reprise it probibly would be renamed. Lot of shear.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.