Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Overhead Clouds at Sunset (Nikongranny)
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Rains moving toward Tampa Bay.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GFS is out to lunch right with the situation going on in FL as it is developing a trough in the Bahamas when the trough is actually building over S FL and sliding NW. This is something the GGEM (Canadian model) has been saying would happen for days now but the WPC folks disregarded and said it was out to lunch with showing 10" plus of rain across FL. Looks as if the Canadian was right again.



NAM model now siding with the Canadian.
Morning!all,very wet,rainy and windy here in South Florida today,big difference from yesterday!!!.Checking all the Hurricane models this morning,the HWRF model in it's latest run of Barbara,hints of a possible low forming East of Florida over the Bahamas and moving West over South-Central Florida,anybody have any additional information or other models showing this setting??.Also in the Satellite the clouds seems to be moving West to East,but in the Doppler radar they are moving East to West coming from the Bahamas,it that is the case Florida is going to be very wet for the next few days!!, a LOT of moisture and stormy weather East over the Bahamas.
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G'Morning -

If anyone remembers me yesterday whining about looking for a place other than a spreadsheet to enter daily rainfall totals, you will be relieved to know that I finally found one. It's a website called Rainlog.org. It's an Arizona thing, but it turns out it doesn't seem to matter where you live - a google map with your latest rainfall total shows up, click on that for chart, etc. Someone outside the US should try this, see if it works. It's not the greatest graphics, but if you don't have a PWS and yet you do have a rain gauge, it's cool enough. It's also a smartphone app (Android anyway, not sure about others).

Here's a snapshot. Only have April, May data in so far.


Last I looked there's only 2 of us in Florida. I'm north of the other logger. We got about an inch and a half so far today...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
PHOTO OF THE DAY:



Radar of hurricane Irene near peak intensity.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm sorry dude, but you really need to do the WHOLE thing different so you don't confused people with official NHC forecast.

Do we need to post a poll on it?

A)Change it!
B)It's fine.

/sarcasm off
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Off to school for second to last day of high school. Be back later this evening for storm tracking.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8025
94B making landfall now.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


Sorry dude but that's very much like the NHC, maybe change the colours or something or make the Not Official bold & black. I thought it looked official at first glace.

Agreed! It is just too close and somewhat in poor taste, IMO.

Find your own basemap. Make your forecast yours!
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for a crossover from the pacific to the atlantic barbara could not pick an easier spot
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I did change colour and took off NOAA logo plus the words printed in caps NOT OFFICIAL





see
I'm sorry dude, but you really need to do the WHOLE thing different so you don't confused people with official NHC forecast.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8025
126. MahFL
Lol the NOGAPS has Barb heading arross the FL panhandle.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I did change colour and took off NOAA logo plus the words printed in caps NOT OFFICIAL





see


it looks strange with the white circle where the emblem used to be....
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Too bad I got to go to school for 2 hours review for my last exam of high school today. Also got to finish up one last homework tonight for Physics tomorrow. Tomorrow will be my final day in high school ever.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8025
Rains moving toward Tampa Bay.

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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It's certainly not out of the equation that we see Barbie survive the trip over the mainland and emerge into the BOC retaining all her tropical characteristics. I personally think that she will degenerate into a broad area of low pressure (like a remnant low) upon emergence into the BOC. However, I do see the possibilities of her getting classified again into a depression increasing.

Thereafter, I am cautious to further speculate whether or not she can get to TS status again. It is also a bit too early to tell where exactly she would go if this scenario plays out.

Too many variables at the moment. These include current intensity, size, speed of storm, and path she takes over very rugged terrain or less rugged terrain. I think we will know a lot more when she roughly 2/3 of the way over the mainland (whether she is a remnant low or depression by then) to really begin to peg a more accurate forecast for her down the road in the BOC and GOM.


I was thinking that maybe it will degenerate enough for her to become an invest in the carribbean, which could lead to the first named storm in the atlantic hurricane season.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Sorry dude but that's very much like the NHC, maybe change the colours or something or make the Not Official bold & black. I thought it looked official at first glace.

I did change colour and took off NOAA logo plus the words printed in caps NOT OFFICIAL





see
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
GFS is out to lunch right with the situation going on in FL as it is developing a trough in the Bahamas when the trough is actually building over S FL and sliding NW. This is something the GGEM (Canadian model) has been saying would happen for days now but the WPC folks disregarded and said it was out to lunch with showing 10" plus of rain across FL. Looks as if the Canadian was right again.



NAM model now siding with the Canadian.
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One of the CNN's reporter took a walk on entire 17 miles of destruction from EF5 Moore tornado. It's a great read.

CNN reporter's walk through 17 miles of destruction
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8025
Conversation between me and Jim Cantore.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
#Barbara the tehuantepecker should landfall tonight as a strong TS or minimal hurricane: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/bar bara13/Barbara_29-30May13_ange.gif … expect very heavy rain in MX


Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@JimCantore Mr Cantore, Do you think #Barbara could make it into the BOC intact and regenerate?


Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
@gsdavo1975 highly unlikely but not impossible. Wondering if that's what GFS was picking up on so yes, it's possible.

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@JimCantore Thanks, If Barbara did cross and did stay a TD Barbara, Would there be 2 "B" names this year with "Barry" and ATL name or just 1

I am awaiting his reply, will be interesting.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
My new forecast map



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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
My new forecast map



Sorry dude but that's very much like the NHC, maybe change the colours or something or make the Not Official bold & black. I thought it looked official at first glace.
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and we have closed eyewall
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I wonder if all that rain and stormy weather over the Bahamas will eventually move over South Florida,hard to tell if storms are moving from West to East or from East to West?,any thoughts? about this?.

The flow is definitely east to west and we are already receiving quite a bit of rain from the system on the east coast here.
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GFS showing the exact opposite data trend.

0600 WED MAY 29 14.6N 95.8W 30 (1007) 71 (62)
1200 WED MAY 29 15.3N 95.1W 30 (1006) 53 (46)
1800 WED MAY 29 16.0N 94.8W 30 (1008) 54 (47)
0000 THU MAY 30 17.0N 94.4W 30 (1006) 30 (26)
0600 THU MAY 30 17.9N 94.4W 30 (1008) 20 (17)
1200 THU MAY 30 18.6N 94.4W 30 (1007) 18 (16)
1800 THU MAY 30 19.1N 94.4W 30 (1008) 17 (15)
0000 FRI MAY 31 19.2N 94.4W 30 (1006) 17 (15)
0600 FRI MAY 31 19.3N 95.0W 30 (1009) 20 (17)
1200 FRI MAY 31 19.2N 95.3W 30 (1007) 21 (18)
1800 FRI MAY 31 18.9N 95.8W 30 (1008) 15 (13)
0000 SAT JUN 01 18.8N 95.7W 30 (1005) 20 (17)
0600 SAT JUN 01 18.8N 95.7W 30 (1008) 20 (17)
1200 SAT JUN 01 19.3N 96.0W 30 (1006) 22 (19)
1800 SAT JUN 01 19.8N 96.2W 30 (1007) 15 (13)
0000 SUN JUN 02 19.9N 96.0W 30 (1005) 15 (13)
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according to Angel radar Barbara has mad landfall

Quoting ncstorm:
this is from the May 20, 2013 12z GFS run where we started to see the crossover of Barbara but then the models backed off the crossover..I've learned with the GFS during hurricane season, you have to go back to the earlier long range models after it drops it










ok so we are back to Carib/Florida storm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Quoting VR46L:


Not Quite , Centre not on land yet



Technically you're correct. Half the eye must cross land to be classified as making landfall.
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INTERESTING GFDL MODEL SHOWING REGENERATION.



0600 WED MAY 29 14.6N 95.9W 30 (999) 52 (45)
1200 WED MAY 29 15.0N 95.2W 29 (990) 70 (61)
1800 WED MAY 29 15.7N 94.6W 29 (991) 69 (60)
0000 THU MAY 30 16.9N 94.4W 29 (992) 67 (58)
0600 THU MAY 30 17.9N 93.9W 29 (995) 40 (35)
1200 THU MAY 30 18.5N 93.7W 29 (997) 44 (38)
1800 THU MAY 30 19.0N 94.0W 29 (998) 48 (42)
0000 FRI MAY 31 19.2N 94.2W 29 (998) 47 (41)
0600 FRI MAY 31 19.1N 94.7W 30 (999) 46 (40)
1200 FRI MAY 31 19.3N 94.8W 29 (995) 61 (53)
1800 FRI MAY 31 19.4N 95.0W 29 (996) 51 (44)
0000 SAT JUN 01 19.7N 95.1W 29 (995) 52 (45)
0600 SAT JUN 01 20.1N 95.4W 29 (995) 55 (48)
1200 SAT JUN 01 20.8N 95.4W 29 (996) 46 (40)
1800 SAT JUN 01 21.7N 95.4W 29 (997) 46 (40)
0000 SUN JUN 02 22.8N 95.4W 29 (996) 45 (39)
0600 SUN JUN 02 23.8N 95.5W 29 (998) 51 (44)
1200 SUN JUN 02 24.7N 95.0W 29 (995) 63 (55)
1800 SUN JUN 02 25.9N 94.7W 30 (999) 46 (40)
0000 MON JUN 03 26.8N 94.4W 30 (1000) 37 (32)
0600 MON JUN 03 27.6N 94.1W 30 (1002) 33 (29)
1200 MON JUN 03 28.6N 93.3W 30 (1002) 36 (31)

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My new forecast map

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
I wonder if all that rain and stormy weather over the Bahamas will eventually move over South Florida,hard to tell if storms are moving from West to East or from East to West?,any thoughts? about this?.
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104. beell

12Z HRRR Composite reflectivity-Valid 3PM CDT
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63 MPH sustained winds.
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this is from the May 20, 2013 12z GFS run where we started to see the crossover of Barbara but then the models backed off the crossover..I've learned with the GFS during hurricane season, you have to go back to the earlier long range models after it drops it









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Statement as of 11:32 AM CDT on May 29, 2013
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for north central
Kearney and southeastern Buffalo counties until 1145 am CDT...

At 1130 am CDT... a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Heartwell... or 11 miles southeast of Kearney... moving north at 35
mph.

Hazard... quarter size hail.

Source... radar indicated.

Impact... damage to vehicles and crops is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Gibbon and Shelton.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 276 and 291.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.


Lat... Lon 4090 9893 4090 9874 4075 9872 4053 9884
4060 9908
time... Mot... loc 1627z 198deg 32kt 4063 9890

Hail... 1.00in
wind... <50mph


Pfannkuch


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100. VR46L
Quoting Torito:


looks like it is making landfall now on that image.


Not Quite , Centre not on land yet

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Quoting Torito:


looks like it is making landfall now on that image.


Making landfall for sure.

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.
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Quoting islander101010:
wikipedia is unreliable but its heck of lot easier than going to the library


if the article has a or a in the top right corner, the article has been fixed and approved by an expert on the subject. only those types of articles can be considered correct, but that is still more than nothing.
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Some 'funkiness' around 10-11z on the MIMIC, but still a good look at the structure changes and jogging...
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291354Z - 291600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE
STORMS...ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEB. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED REMNANT MCV OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR SLN. ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF EAR TO WEST OF DSM.
ISOLATED CELLS IN THIS COMPLEX HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN INTENSIFICATION
AND SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS
AREA...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT.
MEANWHILE...BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO
OCCUR...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHILE OVERALL SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WILL MONITOR TRENDS
IN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBLE WW.

..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 39999938 41419968 42419889 43139702 43439450 42879344
41839324 40999413 40329691 39999938
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Palm Bay is in a nice wet spot with over 1.1 inches received since midnight... looks like more on the way too!
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Quoting Torito:


looks like it is making landfall now on that image.

The definition of landfall is the center crossing the coastline.(Some exceptions possible for a STRONG eyewall making coastal contact...)
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wikipedia is unreliable but its heck of lot easier than going to the library
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Quoting VR46L:
Not that far from Landfall



looks like it is making landfall now on that image.
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Not that far from Landfall

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm very impressed of Barbara. Didn't expected the storm to be that close to hurricane strength. We'll see at 11 am EST.

EDIT: Stupid computer said 8:17 am... it's actually 11:17 am. Look like we'll see at 2 pm EST for partial advisory.


LOL
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Unless shear decreases kiss that potential good-bye.For now it is a ghost storm utill other wise when conditions become prime.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.