Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Overhead Clouds at Sunset (Nikongranny)
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting mikatnight:
G'Morning -

If anyone remembers me yesterday whining about looking for a place other than a spreadsheet to enter daily rainfall totals, you will be relieved to know that I finally found one. It's a website called Rainlog.org. It's an Arizona thing, but it turns out it doesn't seem to matter where you live - a google map with your latest rainfall total shows up, click on that for chart, etc. Someone outside the US should try this, see if it works. It's not the greatest graphics, but if you don't have a PWS and yet you do have a rain gauge, it's cool enough. It's also a smartphone app (Android anyway, not sure about others).

Here's a snapshot. Only have April, May data in so far.


Last I looked there's only 2 of us in Florida. I'm north of the other logger. We got about an inch and a half so far today...


This got me thinking: how hard would it be to build a logging digital rain gauge? The ones I've found all cost $200 or more which seems a bit ridiculous to me when I can buy a wireless digital rain gauge for $30
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From what I've read anything in the BOC will stay there for awhile. Oh, and winter's finally over :)

Lake Charles NWS

MAKE NO MISTAKE THOUGH...THE COOLER AIR
WE EXPERIENCED OVER THE EARLY SPRING IS GONE
..REPLACED WITH
TROPICAL WARM AND MUGGY AIR ON THE NEAR TERM HORIZON IN JUNE. WILL
ONLY MAKE A PASSING MENTION AT THIS TIME THAT GFS MODEL STILL
INDICATES TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEXT WEEK.
IF IT DOES MATERIALIZE...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FROM THEN ON...WE SHALL WAIT
AND SEE WHAT EARLY START OF THE TROPICAL SEASON MAY BRING.
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radar show mountains starting to do a little work on the eyewall
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Gust to 25MPH now in WPB!:)and rain!
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N23W TO 03N30W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 06W-11W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 20W-25W...
AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N33W TO 06N51W TO
08N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 18N91W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED WEST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE FAR SE GULF...PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SW NORTH ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM 26N82W
TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA KEYS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N73W TO 28N95W. E-
SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THE SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
66W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW
OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED
ALONG 10N. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 71W-78W.
FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF 66W WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
AREAS EAST TO 50W. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW
IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY
TRADES PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTLY FLOW DOMINATES AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
REGION WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED.
THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROVIDING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS
OVER A SINGLE LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N61W. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING HOWEVER...MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF
32N BETWEEN 70W-81W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. BRIDGING THIS
SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W TO
31N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DOMINATES A LARGE AREA
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AROUND
40N29W. LASTLY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SNAKES ACROSS THE
WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO TO 31N11W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting SouthernIllinois:


This helps immensely! :-) Going to bookmark right now.

Thanks you. :D Makes PERFECT sense. I had thought so, but wanted to confirm. I knew most if not all of you likely knew the answer.


NP :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Area in the SE Bahamas and the FL straits has a 20% chance of development only due to this being mostly in the midlevels. It's a inverted trough causing a daytime blow up of storms over the water(usual with troughs in the midlevels and during the day)

Barb made landfall. This wasn't a hurricane as Dr Masters posted but I'm sure he thought it was going to be by 11am eastern since his post was 10am.

Barbs moisture will continue into the GOM where I give it a 30% chance of development. Drier air off NE Mx and S Texas will keep the western side dry along with shear. This will probably be like the Fl Straits inverted trough lingering from the BOC to the NE GOM over the next week or so.
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Quoting scottsvb:


It's not coming to you

I didn't say it was a matter of fact I didn't say anything about it coming or going anywhere so stop implying that I am implying that anything is going anywhere ok
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Yea but what if it causes damage in the atlantic, say Gulf of Mexico states?


Well, it originated in the pacific, so it should only be classified as a pacific cyclone, as it maintained its name the whole time, so one could consider it as a EPAC cyclone with an abnormal path of destruction.

Opinion, BTW.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Okay, geeks. Got a very good tropical meteorology related question I was hoping one of you experts can help me out with!! Here goes:

Is official landfall designation when the mid-way point of the eye (the middle of the circle) is directly above the coast OR when the leading outer circular edge of the eye meets the coast much in the way an official sunrise and sunset are designated?


From the Glossary of NHC terms:
Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.


Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting WDEmobmet:
So can no one take a shot at AUSSIE's question of the day????

If a storm cross basins (using Barbara as an example) she maintains her characteristics, and due to latest NHC change she maintains her name in the Atlantic, does the NHC now skip our scheduled "B" name Barry, or would we conclude the season with two "B" named storms?

Anyone, ANyone? Buller!
If Barbara retains tropical characteristics it will retain the name Barbara and after Andrea develops there would still be the name Barry for use.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Okay, geeks. Got a very good tropical meteorology related question I was hoping one of you experts can help me out with!! Here goes:

Is official landfall designation when the mid-way point of the eye (the middle of the circle) is directly above the coast OR when the leading outer circular edge of the eye meets the coast much in the way an official sunrise and sunset are designated?


when the eye's inner core reaches the beach.. It's made landfall. The whole LLC doesn't need to be fully on land.
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Quoting Torito:



Ima say that it will be counted as a pacific storm only, and the name will be used as EPAC, not ATL.
Thats my guess, anyway.


Yea but what if it causes damage in the atlantic, say Gulf of Mexico states?
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From the NHC

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

From this, i think it would be defined as eye touching land in any way.

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Okay, geeks. Got a very good tropical meteorology related question I was hoping one of you experts can help me out with!! Here goes:

Is official landfall designation when the mid-way point of the eye (the middle of the circle) is directly above the coast OR when the leading outer circular edge of the eye meets the coast much in the way an official sunrise and sunset are designated?
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Anyone else think that something could be a brewing in the Florida Straights?
In my humble opinion yes!,I posted before couple of times today that a couple of the Hurricane models were hinting of a low forming east of Florida (over the Bahamas) and moving over Florida eventually,but nobody in the blog paid attention?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Shear continues to decrease in the Gulf of Honduras/W Caribbean and shear continues to increase in the BOC/W Gulf of Mexico


It's not coming to you
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Quoting WDEmobmet:
So can no one take a shot at AUSSIE's question of the day????

If a storm cross basins (using Barbara as an example) she maintains her characteristics, and due to latest NHC change she maintains her name in the Atlantic, does the NHC now skip our scheduled "B" name Barry, or would we conclude the season with two "B" named storms?

Anyone, ANyone? Buller!



Ima say that it will be counted as a pacific storm only, and the name will be used as EPAC, not ATL.
Thats my guess, anyway.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Shear continues to decrease in the Gulf of Honduras/W Caribbean and shear continues to increase in the BOC/W Gulf of Mexico
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting SFLWeatherman:




i just noticed the rotation on the other side of where barbara is making landfall, looks interesting to me.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
So can no one take a shot at AUSSIE's question of the day????

If a storm cross basins (using Barbara as an example) she maintains her characteristics, and due to latest NHC change she maintains her name in the Atlantic, does the NHC now skip our scheduled "B" name Barry, or would we conclude the season with two "B" named storms?

Anyone, ANyone? Buller!
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Anyone else think that something could be a brewing in the Florida Straights?


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LANDFALLING
02E/TS/B/XX
MARK
15.36N/95.25W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
according to the radar Barbara is heading right for the mountains now eye almost full on shore


ALMOST there, see the black dot near the land/sea line?

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting mikatnight:
G'Morning -

If anyone remembers me yesterday whining about looking for a place other than a spreadsheet to enter daily rainfall totals, you will be relieved to know that I finally found one. It's a website called Rainlog.org. It's an Arizona thing, but it turns out it doesn't seem to matter where you live - a google map with your latest rainfall total shows up, click on that for chart, etc. Someone outside the US should try this, see if it works. It's not the greatest graphics, but if you don't have a PWS and yet you do have a rain gauge, it's cool enough. It's also a smartphone app (Android anyway, not sure about others).

Here's a snapshot. Only have April, May data in so far.


Last I looked there's only 2 of us in Florida. I'm north of the other logger. We got about an inch and a half so far today...


Pretty cool. Thanks. :)
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Anyone else think that something could be a brewing in the Florida Straights?


ask Grothar, he's the blobologist...


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
according to the radar Barbara is heading right for the mountains now eye almost fully on shore
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting mikatnight:
G'Morning -

If anyone remembers me yesterday whining about looking for a place other than a spreadsheet to enter daily rainfall totals . . .


You weren't whining, and that looks great! - better than anything I had suggested.

Thanks for letting us know about it.
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As usual, CMC keeps it interesting. Those guys are such kidders!

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Rain here all night and day!! no Work for me today!!!!:)
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Anyone else think that something could be a brewing in the Florida Straights?
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Woah its hot here.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting AussieStorm:
Conversation between me and Jim Cantore.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
#Barbara the tehuantepecker should landfall tonight as a strong TS or minimal hurricane: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/bar bara13/Barbara_29-30May13_ange.gif … expect very heavy rain in MX


Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@JimCantore Mr Cantore, Do you think #Barbara could make it into the BOC intact and regenerate?


Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
@gsdavo1975 highly unlikely but not impossible. Wondering if that's what GFS was picking up on so yes, it's possible.

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@JimCantore Thanks, If Barbara did cross and did stay a TD Barbara, Would there be 2 "B" names this year with "Barry" and ATL name or just 1

I am awaiting his reply, will be interesting.


Seems to have stumped more than just the WU world
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Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah It kinda does I was going to put my station's logo on it but I said nah



Not complaining, just throwing that out there. :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
My new Forecast for Tropical Storm BARBARA
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Quoting Torito:


it looks strange with the white circle where the emblem used to be....

yeah It kinda does I was going to put my station's logo on it but I said nah

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
142. wxmod
These are satellite photos from today of the North Pole (not the wider Arctic Ocean but the exact North Pole). The contrast has been increased to cut through some thin clouds. The ice appears to be disintegrating because of wave action, something that would only happen because the whole Arctic Ocean is beginning to undulate. Imagine what the waves will be like in the arctic when the ice is gone!




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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Anyone's thoughts on today's severe weather outbreak??
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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GFS is out to lunch right with the situation going on in FL as it is developing a trough in the Bahamas when the trough is actually building over S FL and sliding NW. This is something the GGEM (Canadian model) has been saying would happen for days now but the WPC folks disregarded and said it was out to lunch with showing 10" plus of rain across FL. Looks as if the Canadian was right again.



NAM model now siding with the Canadian.
Hello!!,can you explain a little bit more about this trough over South Florida and how it will affect us here in South Florida,thank you!.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Too bad I got to go to school for 2 hours review for my last exam of high school today. Also got to finish up one last homework tonight for Physics tomorrow. Tomorrow will be my final day in high school ever.


Congrats Blue, best of luck!
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Rains moving toward Tampa Bay.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GFS is out to lunch right with the situation going on in FL as it is developing a trough in the Bahamas when the trough is actually building over S FL and sliding NW. This is something the GGEM (Canadian model) has been saying would happen for days now but the WPC folks disregarded and said it was out to lunch with showing 10" plus of rain across FL. Looks as if the Canadian was right again.



NAM model now siding with the Canadian.
Morning!all,very wet,rainy and windy here in South Florida today,big difference from yesterday!!!.Checking all the Hurricane models this morning,the HWRF model in it's latest run of Barbara,hints of a possible low forming East of Florida over the Bahamas and moving West over South-Central Florida,anybody have any additional information or other models showing this setting??.Also in the Satellite the clouds seems to be moving West to East,but in the Doppler radar they are moving East to West coming from the Bahamas,it that is the case Florida is going to be very wet for the next few days!!, a LOT of moisture and stormy weather East over the Bahamas.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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