Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Overhead Clouds at Sunset (Nikongranny)
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

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this severe weather outbeark may bust
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
Alright, back on my PC, let's see if I can make a more reasonable forecast regarding Barbara.

The next 10-12 hours for Barbara are absolutely critical in terms if we're going to see Barbara regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico. The topography that Barbara is going over is relatively flat compared to most of Mexico, and the models appear to be having a hard time to resolving the current intensity of the cyclone. This is nothing unusual for the models though, they do not have the resolution to pick up a small and tight circulation such as Hurricane Barbara has. However, I still regard this as a failure for the models as a 1006mb - 1011mb TD will face a totally different steering environment than a 990mb Category 1 hurricane would.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be somewhat hostile, though not destructive. If it can stay close to the coast it may be able to use the cyclonic shape of the BoC (much as it did with the Gulf of Tehuantepec) to intensify, IF it can begin to develop a more robust anticyclonic circulation aloft to defend itself from the shear it will be facing.

If Barbara loses itself completely and dies over Central America, any system that forms from the remnant circulation would likely be named "Andrea." The situation reminds me a lot of the TD-11E/Hermine situation in 2010, as well as Alma/Arthur in 2008, though the models were more robust about development than they were with this situation -- at least for Hermine. It's equally as likely though that whatever develops will be torn apart and become an elongated trough of low pressure, bringing nothing but rain to Florida and the Gulf Coast. This is certainly a difficult cyclogenesis to predict, I'm going to give Barbara a ~30% chance of redeveloping into either itself or a new tropical depression.
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*scratching my german head": What's the meaning of:
"veer-back-veer profile"? It's not in the online dictionary.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
It's certainly possible. If surface observations and satellite estimates support the idea then I could see it happening. I haven't looked at either, however.


Good to see ya Tom.....are ya home for the summer? Or in summer school?

Barbara'a circulation seemed to be big and broad when she started.......and now such a small tight circulation and litle Hurricane.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Wednesday 29 May 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:80.2°F
Dewpoint:67.8°F
Humidity:66%
Wind:W 16 gust 25 mph
Humidex: 94
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056

Aqua/Modis just caught Barbara landfalling.

More impressive with this bandwidth:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's also a noticeable veer-back-veer profile across the Moderate risk area. Has plagued many outbreaks this year.
yeah saw that. SPC also mentioned it. Im not sure exactly what implication this has for storm evolution and storm modes. But if I had to guess I'd say it hurts the mesocyclone and the storms ability to move water away from the updraft.
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NWS: Barbara's landfall in Chipas, Mexico is the easternmost landfall for an eastern north Pacific hurricane since records began in 1966.
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Quoting Civicane49:
SHOULD BARBARA MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.

Yes.
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Afternoon, Evening, everyone.

I go to a week long Papillon National Specialty and a Russian Toy Specialty and it looks like a whole of stuff happens! Now I'm visiting my oldest son in Navarre, Fl, and he doesn't get cable or tv. Been reading back here to try to catch up.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting Ricki13th:
Base on it Track over land the highest amount of terrain will come immediately after making landfall. That along with a fairly organized CDO might be what could allow her to survive or at least her circulation to survive however there is some dry air over Mexico & the southern gulf. Only time will tell!


This was 11-E which jumped to become Hermine who made a strong beeline for the TEXMEX border after encountering more mountains than Barbara is facing.

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HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

BARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF
WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND
BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12
HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED
BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE
REDEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA
MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD
EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.2N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0600Z 17.3N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 18.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0600Z 19.3N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Updated: 5:00pm Advisory
(click to enlarge)
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91E is still struggling with some dry air and strong easterly shear from the outflow mechanism of Barbara. The convection is shifting away from the partially exposed low-level center on visible satellite imagery. 91E is unlikely to develop as moderate to high shear and dry, stable air will continue to be the main inhibiting factors for development. In addition, it will be approaching cool sea surface temperatures by 48 hours.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting TomTaylor:
Taking a stab at severe wx...

Not trying to downplay things but overall the setup doesn't look quite as impressive as models may have suggested a few days ago. Looking around at the 18z soundings, most sites showing minimal CIN, suggesting early initiation times and storms not taking full advantage of daytime heating. In fact, storms have been firing along the dry line for some time now. Satellite imagery reveals lots of cloudiness ahead of the dry line, which also will limit daytime heating some. Low level shear and hodograph signatures aren't particularly amazing for tornadic supercells. Still, lots of CAPE, low LCLs and sufficient shear for supercell development so tornadoes are definitely on the table later this afternoon. As the SPC and others have outlined, the primary threat for tornadoes appears to be in the Texas panhandle, as well as western Kansas and Oklahoma along the dry line. Additionally, as with all supercells, the threat of damaging winds and hail is also present. Lots of moisture and high CAPE values (particularly above the freezing level) suggest an elevated threat for damaging hail, especially over central Oklahoma and Kansas. Downdrafts are also of concern, though midlevel moisture suggests that it shouldn't be of particularly elevated concern.

Here's the 18z sounding out of Dodge City, Kansas, just ahead of the dry line where the tornado threat is greatest.




Stay safe, listen to the NWS. Hopefully we'll get a report from Levi later in the evening, always fun reading his perspectives on it.

There's also a noticeable veer-back-veer profile across the Moderate risk area. Has plagued many outbreaks this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30288
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Well I see all the other South FLA posters writing about rain, rain, rain, but we are sunny and dry here in Cape Coral --- AGAIN. And do I see a repeat of last week, with an upper-level low further up the Peninsula and pulling DRY AIR across us while the East Coast of Florida gets pasted? Surely there is somebody over there who is sick of rain and would happily swap yards with me!!!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi TT. Do you think when the reanalysis of Barbara is made,they increase a little bit the peak intensity?
It's certainly possible. If surface observations and satellite estimates support the idea then I could see it happening. I haven't looked at either, however.
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NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND
BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12
HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED
BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY.
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Will be interesting to see what's left of Barbara should it emerge in the Bay of Campeche.
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barbara those bays are getting good slashing and storm surges hope they are ready
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post #510 seems to be right.
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Base on it Track over land the highest amount of terrain will come immediately after making landfall. That along with a fairly organized CDO might be what could allow her to survive or at least her circulation to survive however there is some dry air over Mexico & the southern gulf. Only time will tell!
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Hi TT. Do you think when the post analysis of Barbara is made they increase a little bit the peak intensity?
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Taking a stab at severe wx...

Not trying to downplay things but overall the setup doesn't look quite as impressive as models may have suggested a few days ago. Looking around at the 18z soundings, most sites showing minimal CIN, suggesting early initiation times and storms not taking full advantage of daytime heating. In fact, storms have been firing along the dry line for some time now. Satellite imagery reveals lots of cloudiness ahead of the dry line, which also will limit daytime heating some. Low level shear and hodograph signatures aren't particularly amazing for tornadic supercells. Still, lots of CAPE, low LCLs and sufficient shear for supercell development so tornadoes are definitely on the table later this afternoon. As the SPC and others have outlined, the primary threat for tornadoes appears to be in the Texas panhandle, as well as western Kansas and Oklahoma along the dry line. Additionally, as with all supercells, the threat of damaging winds and hail is also present. Lots of moisture and high CAPE values (particularly above the freezing level) suggest an elevated threat for damaging hail, especially over central Oklahoma and Kansas. Downdrafts are also of concern, though midlevel moisture suggests that it shouldn't be of particularly elevated concern. Overall, tornadoes and hail will be the biggest threats.

Here's the 18z sounding out of Dodge City, Kansas, just ahead of the dry line where the tornado threat is greatest.




Stay safe, listen to the NWS. Hopefully we'll get a report from Levi later in the evening, always fun reading his perspectives on it.
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Quoting Patrap:



If all the other conditions allow... it'd wouldn't be impossible to at least have a depression in the BOC for a short time as there aren't many mountains to tear Barbara up
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think I've ever been so wrong before. The system was very elongated at noon yesterday [and seemed to be becoming more so] and accordingly I made a statement that it may never get classified. I leave for three hours and come back to see its designated as a tropical depression. Made the prediction it would only intensify to 50 mph in my blog (that I never published because I got sidetracked with the tornadoes). Woke up this morning and thought it wouldn't intensify anymore...it's on the verge of Cat 2 intensity right now.

Whatever.


If it makes you feel better, the models thinks your original forecast was right. LOL
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507. txjac
Quoting Patrap:




It looks like it's not very high around where she's at. Maybe the mountains wont be too much?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
One thing I'm noticing about Barbara is that none of the major models are not even halfway close to the intensity it is currently v. what they've actually been initializing it as. The GGEM doesn't even recognize an active tropical cyclone in the area.




Hello everyone, a very busy day in the tropics as well as s rainy day here in southern Florida as a trough is parked over us. I have been noticing that the initialization is way off on most of the models. As that could of accounted for less enthusiasm for Atlantic development. Also the strong upper level winds that was over the BOC is starting to decrease; as shear is always unpredictable. Regardless, we should definitely monitor to COC of Barbara to see if it can remain intact over the Mountainous terrain.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting AllStar17:
(click to enlarge)


That's very strange to see the hurricane warning only for the left front quadrant instead of the right front quadrant in the Northern hemisphere.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think I've ever been so wrong before. The system was very elongated at noon yesterday [and seemed to be becoming more so] and accordingly I made a statement that it may never get classified. I leave for three hours and come back to see its designated as a tropical depression. Made the prediction it would only intensify to 50 mph in my blog (that I never published because I got sidetracked with the tornadoes). Woke up this morning and thought it wouldn't intensify anymore...it's on the verge of Cat 2 intensity right now.

Whatever.

At least you admitted you were wrong unlike some people who would constantly deny it. You can't always make a perfect prediction as Mother Nature likes to deceive us... alot...
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Rapid weakening is about to commence for Barbara now that it is moving over land with mountainous terrain.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting intampa:
A bill being drafted in the House could potentially undermine the climate science research activities and the oceans programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It also would open up the weather satellite sector, which has been a troubled area for NOAA in recent years, to more privatization.
The bill, known as the %u201CWeather Forecasting Improvement Act,%u201D would put more emphasis on research and development of new weather forecasting capabilities for anticipating near-term, high-impact events, such as tornadoes and hurricanes, at the possible expense of two of the agency%u2019s other long-standing areas of focus %u2014 climate and marine science. [...]

NOAA said it was invited to [a May 23 Science Subcommittee on the Environment] hearing but did not receive sufficient advanced notice to allow it to formulate a response to the bill and also clear testimony through the White House.

anyone have any idea what this would mean for NOAA


A link to the full text of the Draft bill is below:

LINK

The language that seems aimed at reducing research on climate change in favor of research on "operational weather prediction" is this:

"The NOAA Chief Information Officer...shall issue a plan for high performance computing support of its advanced research and operational weather prediction models that... identifies opportunities to reallocate existing advanced computing resources from lower priority uses to improve operational weather prediction." (emphasis mine)

This is pretty vague language that could be interpreted several different ways... They don't specify what "lower priority uses" might be, but they make it clear that operational weather research should become the highest priority. While I think operational weather research SHOULD be (and probably is) the highest priority of NOAA, I worry language like this would make research on non-operational aspects of weather and climate much harder to justify.
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(click to enlarge)
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Winds blew a tractor trailer & a small car off the hwy & knocked down power lines in Greene, IA. The entire city has no power.
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It would be awesome if this thing crosses over without being downgraded to a depression!!! Then it would maintain it's identity as an E Pacific storm(Barbra).
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Well CMC even recognize the system in the last run...TA


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You can see the eye making landfall on the left side of this radar loop.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
A bill being drafted in the House could potentially undermine the climate science research activities and the oceans programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It also would open up the weather satellite sector, which has been a troubled area for NOAA in recent years, to more privatization.
The bill, known as the “Weather Forecasting Improvement Act,” would put more emphasis on research and development of new weather forecasting capabilities for anticipating near-term, high-impact events, such as tornadoes and hurricanes, at the possible expense of two of the agency’s other long-standing areas of focus — climate and marine science. [...]

NOAA said it was invited to [a May 23 Science Subcommittee on the Environment] hearing but did not receive sufficient advanced notice to allow it to formulate a response to the bill and also clear testimony through the White House.

anyone have any idea what this would mean for NOAA
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think I've ever been so wrong before. The system was very elongated at noon yesterday [and seemed to be becoming more so] and accordingly I made a statement that it may never get classified. I leave for three hours and come back to see its designated as a tropical depression. Made the prediction it would only intensify to 50 mph in my blog (that I never published because I got sidetracked with the tornadoes). Woke up this morning and thought it wouldn't intensify anymore...it's on the verge of Cat 2 intensity right now.

Whatever.

What about the DC snow that wasn't?

Anyway, I don't think anyone saw Barbara becoming a strong Cat 1.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
HURRICANE BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
110 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MEXICAN RADAR IMAGES FROM EL MOZOTAL INDICATE
THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF
CHIAPAS AT 1250 PM PDT...1950 UTC...ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM....WEST
OF TONALA.

SUMMARY OF 1250 PM PDT...1950 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...16.0N 94.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF TONALA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EDT Wednesday 29 May 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:79.3°F
Dewpoint:68.0°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:W 20 gust 29 mph
Humidex: 93

feeling a little warm here

just kicked on 32000 btu's worth of ac in my apartment first time this season be cool in a few mins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think I've ever been so wrong before. The system was very elongated at noon yesterday [and seemed to be becoming more so] and accordingly I made a statement that it may never get classified. I leave for three hours and come back to see its designated as a tropical depression. Made the prediction it would only intensify to 50 mph in my blog (that I never published because I got sidetracked with the tornadoes). Woke up this morning and thought it wouldn't intensify anymore...it's on the verge of Cat 2 intensity right now.

Whatever.

Crow time! :P

But in all seriousness, it's not a big deal to be wrong sometimes. At least you're able to admit it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think I've ever been so wrong before. The system was very elongated at noon yesterday [and seemed to be becoming more so] and accordingly I made a statement that it may never get classified. I leave for three hours and come back to see its designated as a tropical depression. Made the prediction it would only intensify to 50 mph in my blog (that I never published because I got sidetracked with the tornadoes). Woke up this morning and thought it wouldn't intensify anymore...it's on the verge of Cat 2 intensity right now.

Whatever.
just goes to show no matter how smart we may be
weather can really make us look not as smart as we think we are
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.