Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

Share this Blog
45
+

Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Overhead Clouds at Sunset (Nikongranny)
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 636 - 586

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Unless she can get a formidable Anticyclone overhead... :/


Yup, which will be difficult. The best place for her to be is to park herself right off the coast of BoC, shear isn't as destructive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Kinda crossing in the least mountainous region, don'tcha think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:
Concerning moisture ahead of Barbara:


And also a fairly big plume of moisture emerging Africa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know if some of you noticed but as soon as Barbara made landfall she got herself involved with the monsoon trof again and boom convection is increased fast in the monsoon trof and continues to increase just throwing that out there


The land doesnt seem to be affecting it unlike most cases......

i mean yeah, it doesnt look as good now, but it hasnt really WEAKENED yet..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


good to see ya kman
ya ihave more than just reporting powers

but I strive to be fair as possible
and encourage good blogging
so its enjoyable for all
even the trolls if they choose to behave and follow the rules set forth
there is a group of us
we do not act alone but as a group
We have very few true trolls. There's a big difference between the kind that stand under the bridge, allowing no one to cross, and the troll who feeds off of the moment in time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know if some of you noticed but as soon as Barbara made landfall she got herself involved with the monsoon trof again and boom convection is increased fast in the monsoon trof and continues to increase just throwing that out there
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
barbara defying every model out there right now..... it strengthened when it was almost completely on land, and it isnt really losing strength quickly at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Certainly doesn't paint a pretty picture for Barbara, otherwise I'd say regeneration would have been likely -- that shear though will be tough to break through.


Unless it becomes a subtropical storm like Barry in 2007 or the second June 1982 storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:

I think 30-40kts of shear is still pretty significant and that the BOC is still fairly hostile.

A small decrease right off the coastline, but that is about it.








1 i dont even go by that map

2 i was not talking about the costline


3 i was talking about the hole Atlantic


a few days a go this wind shear map was showing 70 too 80kt of wind shear this about evere where but wind shear has really lower a lot from 50 to80kt too 30kt too 50kt in most place i no its still high for any thing too even fourm right now but we are geting closer too that time of year too where we neeed too start watching

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Certainly doesn't paint a pretty picture for Barbara, otherwise I'd say regeneration would have been likely -- that shear though will be tough to break through.

Unless she can get a formidable Anticyclone overhead... :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:

I think 30-40kts of shear is still pretty significant and that the BOC is still fairly hostile.

A small decrease right off the coastline, but that is about it.







Certainly doesn't paint a pretty picture for Barbara, otherwise I'd say regeneration would have been likely -- that shear though will be tough to break through.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
welcome

long season ahead maybe


thanks i'm going to try and not lurk as much this season :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Concerning moisture ahead of Barbara:
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6520
hey guys any of you have surface obs in the area where Barbara is since she moved inland and kinda out of radar reach so we need to use surface obs in the area to track the center or microwave data if anyone got that please post it thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
noticed over the yrs its getting harder to pulverize these circulations air to the north of barbara seems to be moistioning up. we will see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear has really drop still high but it has lower a lot



I think 30-40kts of shear is still pretty significant and that the BOC is still fairly hostile.

A small decrease right off the coastline, but that is about it.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear map shows BOC and GOM still has high shear and increasing in a bicg chunk of BOC/GOM and shear in GOH/W Caribbean lower and is still decreasing
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
The biggest issue for Barb in the Bay of Campeche will be the divergent air that is present. The result is quite the large area of dry air showing up on water vapor. This combined with whatever shear is around should be enough to keep her from getting out of hand. What's left of her could still be the spark of the Atlantic basin's first tropical cyclone in about a week as several of us have been advertising for a while now.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes she will retain here name


Oh okay, i just thought that she would become the GOM's first named storm. Thanks for the clarification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Phoenix30:
It has been a long time since i have been on here, but if Barbara makes it across to the Gulf, will she retain her name? And has a hurricane ever made the trek across and hit in the GOM?
Barbara keeps her name if she don't loses tropical depression status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Phoenix30:
It has been a long time since i have been on here, but if Barbara makes it across to the Gulf, will she retain her name? And has a hurricane ever made the trek across and hit in the GOM?



yes she will retain here name
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It has been a long time since i have been on here, but if Barbara makes it across to the Gulf, will she retain her name? And has a hurricane ever made the trek across and hit in the GOM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
welcome

long season ahead maybe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting butterflies with the start of hurricane season so close. Hello from houston to all in the community!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wind shear has really drop still high but it has lower a lot


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rain coming!

It has been raining almost all day here in Palm Springs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Barbara maintaining an excellent satellite presentation as she moves into the Isthumus of Tehuantepec.

She sure is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
605. Skyepony (Mod)


Good seeing everyone! Yeah a few of us got modded. WunderYakuza wrote a blog on it a while back. You all do by far the most moderating with the !.. Keep it up:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on May 29, 2013
Clear
84 °F
Clear
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 56 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 4.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

84.1 here


Wow. it cooled off for you.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10646
Rain coming!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4982
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm starting to doubt we get a legitimate High risk of severe weather in 2013. June looks to be quiet overall with a predominant ridging pattern across the CONUS, and a majority of them issued after this date bust anyways.


I was thinking that for a while now. Good for the folks, but also boring for the armchair mets.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Barbara maintaining an excellent satellite presentation as she moves into the Isthumus of Tehuantepec.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OAK GROVE, CA (OGVC1)
Elev: 2781 ft; Latitude: 33.385967; Longitude: -116.796836

Current time: Wed, 29 May 2:59 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 29 May 2:09 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Fuel Fuel Solar Solar Precip Precip Precip Precip Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Temp Moisture Radiation Pct Accumulated 1 hour 6 hour 24 hour Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (f) (%) (W/m*m) of psbl (inches) (inches) (inches) (inches)
29 May 2:09 pm PDT 86 43 22 NNW 12G19 98 7 1032 69% 8.21 OK
29 May 1:09 pm PDT 87 35 16 NW 8G20 99 8 1053 69% 8.21 OK
29 May 12:09 pm PDT 84 37 19 NNW 13G21 95 8 1013 69% 8.21 OK
29 May 11:09 am PDT 83 32 16 NNW 10G18 94 9 914 69% 8.21

Nearest one to my house..about 1,000 lower elevation than me. About 5 miles as the crow flies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone else see some spins in the clouds over the Florida straights or am I getting old?

Nothing like 30-40kts of shear to keep anything that trys to form in check.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Discrete cells may form around the Garden City area. Area has remained convectionless and is a main risk for tornadoes today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Kman is back? Now it's a party! :)


Thanks for the shout. Great to see so many regulars around. The Caribbean has just begun to produce some appreciable moisture in the West / Central part of the basin right on time for June 1st.

No May storm this year in the Atl. it would seem.

Signing off now as I am in the office and our firewall is blocking so much stuff that it takes forever for the page to refresh. Will catch up with everyone real soon.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
anyone looking for more info regarding the mods can check here

all the answers are here and you can leave a response as well

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm starting to doubt we get a legitimate High risk of severe weather in 2013. June looks to be quiet overall with a predominant ridging pattern across the CONUS, and a majority of them issued after this date bust anyways.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
Two persons dead because of "Barbara", one was surfing the surge (a man from the US, 61 years old, as I've read elsewhere), the other fell into a river because of an epilepsy attack and was swept away. Two fisherman are missing.
Link

Edit. Maybe worse: 14 fishermen are missed.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6520
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's one of things I've been noticing today as this outbreak goes on, the storms are forming so close together that they're becoming linear fronts instead of individual cells.

That being said:
RT @AndreaButera: NWS #tornado warning says a "confirmed LARGE and EXTREMELY DANGEROUS tornado was located near Saronville, NE.
Interestingly enough that is one of the only discrete cells so far today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on May 29, 2013
Clear
84 °F
Clear
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 56 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 4.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

84.1 here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


good to see ya kman
ya ihave more than just reporting powers

but I strive to be fair as possible
and encourage good blogging
so its enjoyable for all
even the trolls if they choose to behave and follow the rules set forth
there is a group of us
we do not act alone but as a group


Good stuff !. Looking forward to seeing how 2013 plays out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fun to be in Texas .. great start to the storm season .. was wondering what becomes of all that moisture from Barbara .. if it heads north and hits east bound air .. then no fun for southeast u.s. not in terms of a hurricane but tornados?

nothing showing in brownsville forecast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's one of things I've been noticing today as this outbreak goes on, the storms are forming so close together that they're becoming linear fronts instead of individual cells.

That being said:
RT @AndreaButera: NWS #tornado warning says a "confirmed LARGE and EXTREMELY DANGEROUS tornado was located near Saronville, NE.



it has weak in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good to see ya. Had a great week of weather here in the backcountry......coolest,temperature wise Memorial Day in sometime! I don't think it hit 80. Supposed to warm up bigtime this week,might be up near 100. Have ya made it to the tacoria on Milpas St,Santa Barbara yet? Santa Barbara is most excellent!
It's funny you mentioned that, my aunt recommended that same place saying how good it was. Haven't been able to check it out though, it's hard getting into downtown Santa Barbara living a good 5-10 miles away without a car. One of these days I will check it out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STOCKHAM...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF YORK....AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT
TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...STOCKHAM...
HAMPTON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kman is back? Now it's a party! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 636 - 586

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast