Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Overhead Clouds at Sunset (Nikongranny)
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

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More rain in my area:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Doppler22:
Hey I was tracking the tornadic storm in New York heading towards Schenectady on RadarScope since I wasn't home... Was there any damage there because it looked pretty good on the radar


SPC is showing wind damage reports, no idea if any of those are connected to the tornado or not.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Structure on Barbara still looks pretty good, but convection is falling apart. She's in for a rough night.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Are the ants invading your house? That's a sure sign that you are going to have bad weather.

;-)


No, but the thunder is louder and it's raining heavier.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT.

* AT 809 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ANDES...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ANDES BY 815 PM EDT...
MARGARETVILLE AND ARKVILLE BY 825 PM EDT...
6 MILES SOUTH OF FLEISCHMANNS BY 835 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.
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Rain coming down in buckets in Stillwater, OK. No straightline winds. Whew. But this is line one of two.
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Hey I was tracking the tornadic storm in New York heading towards Schenectady on RadarScope since I wasn't home... Was there any damage there because it looked pretty good on the radar
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SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JANESVILLE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 239...WW 240...WW
241...WW 242...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246...WW 247...

DISCUSSION...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...NOW NORTHEAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
EMANATING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND WEAKENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
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726. beell
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The sky outside, as of now.



don't open that window
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Winds are picking up
Quoting FunnelVortex:
It's getting dark,
Quoting FunnelVortex:
First thunder rumble heard
Quoting FunnelVortex:
First raindrops comming down,


Lol. Are the ants invading your house? That's a sure sign that you are going to have bad weather.

;-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
It doing good!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984




Edit: Are those freeze watches and warnings in Nevada? But...it's almost June. :(
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Hello everyone,Barb looks pretty good over land for now.
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First raindrops comming down,
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 643 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANGELUS...GRINNELL...SEGUIN AND HOXIE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 87.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAUNDERS NE-
650 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTY...

AT 646 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MEAD...OR 27 MILES WEST OF OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING
DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTY...BETWEEN CEDAR BLUFFS AND LESHARA.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292336Z - 300100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH NCNTRL TX ARE
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WIND PROFILES HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE
PAST HOUR WITH 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SIZE
IN 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
SUGGEST STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL/KERR.. 05/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
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First thunder rumble heard
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...LOCATED INLAND IN MEXICO OVER
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
It's getting dark,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL THE MAIN THREATS...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM N OF TONALA MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Winds are picking up
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
An example of a storm that reformed after crossing from Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico. Not saying it will happen. Just saying.


The first recorded example:

Hurricane Six of 1923
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
621 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HEAVY RAIN WESTERN 40.39N 97.20W
05/29/2013 M2.90 INCH SALINE NE EMERGENCY MNGR
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The sky outside, as of now.

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Long night still to go.





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Don't see storms moving at 70 MPH often I don't think


* AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SELMAN TO 3 MILES NORTH OF CHESTER TO 4 MILES EAST OF
PUTNAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 239...WW 240...WW
241...WW 242...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246...

DISCUSSION...AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY AREA THIS EVENING. COINCIDING WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
INTENSIFICATION TO 50-60 KT...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
PROBABLY WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE HAIL...AT LEAST INTO THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...KERR
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting Patrap:
symmetry is still good.


looks more like becoming elongated a bit NW-SE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292320Z - 300045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION
ACROSS SERN KS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SERN
KS WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT. STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS
SO FAR HAVE REMAINED POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 60 KT THIS EVENING...AND THIS COULD
REINVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS. THE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS
WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..DIAL/KERR.. 05/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37269750 38409702 38389572 37109570 37269750
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting hydrus:
This is the one...Link
Thank you!!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everybody, see you again next Monday; I hope everyone stays well ... Meanwhile play nice with Barbara (and vice versa)...

When things are calmer again, this new feature on spaceweather.com concerning noctilucent clouds may be interesting.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6697
This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0247
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.

WOUS64 KWNS 292322
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 247 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC003-009-021-027-029-035-041-047-059-071-085-093 -119-129-133-
137-141-143-145-149-155-161-165-167-173-193-300700 -
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0247.130529T2325Z-130530T0700Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AUDUBON BUENA VISTA
CARROLL CASS CHEROKEE
CLAY CRAWFORD DICKINSON
FREMONT HARRISON IDA
LYON MILLS MONONA
MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PAGE PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE
SAC SHELBY SIOUX
TAYLOR WOODBURY


MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0247.130529T2325Z-130530T0700Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN
LYON MURRAY NOBLES
PIPESTONE ROCK


NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-055 -067-095-097-
107-109-119-127-131-133-139-141-147-151-153-155-15 9-167-173-177-
179-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0247.130529T2325Z-130530T0700Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
BUTLER CASS CEDAR
COLFAX CUMING DAKOTA
DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LANCASTER MADISON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
PIERCE PLATTE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE


SDC005-009-011-023-027-035-043-061-067-077-079-083 -087-097-099-
101-111-125-127-135-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0247.130529T2325Z-130530T0700Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS
CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON
DOUGLAS HANSON HUTCHINSON
KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA
MOODY SANBORN TURNER
UNION YANKTON


ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Hey, I am under the Wisconsin blob right now.

I am just about to get hit within the next half hour, the sky looks very ominous.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
94B.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22585
This is scary, the Albany Airport is about 5 miles north of me. But it seems to have died down here.

A New TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHERN RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 716 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD
NEAR THE ALBANY AIRPORT AND A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS NEAR
ROTTERDAM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WATERFORD BY 725 PM EDT...
GRAFTON BY 740 PM EDT...
HOOSICK FALLS BY 750 PM EDT...
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symmetry is still good.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SELMAN TO 3 MILES NORTH OF CHESTER TO 4 MILES EAST OF
PUTNAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVA...WATONGA...FAIRVIEW...CHEROKEE...OKEENE...WA YNOKA...
SEILING...CANTON...HELENA...RINGWOOD...CARMEN...TA LOGA...CLEO
SPRINGS...LONGDALE...FREEDOM...GOLTRY...JET...ALIN E...AMES AND
MENO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
02E losing its kick fast
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984

746
WFUS51 KALY 292322
TORALY
NYC083-091-115-300000-
/O.NEW.KALY.TO.W.0005.130529T2322Z-130530T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHERN RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 716 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WALL CLOUD
NEAR THE ALBANY AIRPORT AND A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS NEAR
ROTTERDAM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WATERFORD BY 725 PM EDT...
GRAFTON BY 740 PM EDT...
HOOSICK FALLS BY 750 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY. GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.



LAT...LON 4274 7331 4277 7368 4279 7371 4295 7373
4301 7331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 270DEG 35KT 4282 7373



TAW/IRL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting Hurricane1956:
If I may ask what models are you using!!,you are right that is a lot of rain in the Gulf,the Florida Straight,and the Bahamas,we are here in Miami,all of this could make the next days miserable!!,and there is a small probability but we might get some development from all of this mess.
This is the one...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22585
Looking at the post it would appear we would have to wait another 5-10 days for something to happen in the tropics.Where have I heard this before?.As I have said we get what we get this season plain and simple.After the models downfall this winter on D.C weather I don't really trust them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From WTEN Albany NY -
Funnel Cloud reported near the intersection of Altamont Ave and Curry Rd in Rotterdam...seek shelter immediately
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
This is getting more and more interesting each run now..That is a lot of rain in the gulf.
If I may ask what models are you using!!,you are right that is a lot of rain in the Gulf,the Florida Straight,and the Bahamas,we are here in Miami,all of this could make the next days miserable!!,and there is a small probability but we might get some development from all of this mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
687. VR46L
24 HRS in the life of Barbara

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)




Hope it works!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Barbara seem to be weakening its convection is dying fast and although its still spinning the rate that it is spinning at has decreased last few frames it kinda looks like Barbara is slowing down just IMO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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