TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 950 - 900

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950. TomTaylor
2:57 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Wrong blog darn
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
949. ncstorm
2:38 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 52m

Barbara over 30°C+ SST in East Pac, but Gulf is ready for tropical storm activity, 27°C+ plenty for hurricanes
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15317
948. hydrus
2:37 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
947. Grothar
2:28 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
946. Grothar
2:27 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
945. VR46L
2:08 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I doubt much if any...

Models certainly dont show it.

GFS doestn even let this last more than 6-12 hrs inland and its remnants simply stall


I tend to take a rather cynical view of the Models for the last 3 weeks they have in some way or form spelled doom for Florida or the East coast .. Now all of a sudden they are dropping everything ... I would keep an eye on Barbie . you never know .

Micheal last year was a major hurricane and was never modeled at all .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6901
944. Patrap
2:03 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
I believe we may get a Cane designation next advisory.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
943. WarEagle8
2:03 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Salina Cruz to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico is ~301 km or 187 miles. 187/8 mph = ~23-24 hours to cross land and be at the northern shore ==> BOC or GOM.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
942. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
941. stormchaser19
1:59 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Beautiful structure. This TRMM pass also shows the low-level ring feature:



Also, the 85 PCT shows a closed eyewall:



for me it's very close to Hurricane strength!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
940. GeorgiaStormz
1:58 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Question, What effect, if any, will Barbara have on the Central and Southeast United States? Regardless if she survives the mountains or not I would think her moisture will. Then you have a front that is parallel to the mean flow just sitting across the Midwest until Saturday.


I doubt much if any...

Models certainly dont show it.

GFS doestn even let this last more than 6-12 hrs inland and its remnants simply stall
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
939. islander101010
1:58 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
barbara seems to leaving alot of energy behind her which is troublesome in that if our western carib system gets going the leftover energy might be pulled into the atlantic system out of the warm pacific. this could mean flooding rains for nicaraqua and el salvador &guatamala.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4602
937. SouthDadeFish
1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Beautiful structure. This TRMM pass also shows the low-level ring feature:



Also, the 85 PCT shows a closed eyewall:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
936. GeorgiaStormz
1:53 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Wow I leave, i come back...and we almost have hurricane barbara...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
935. ILwthrfan
1:53 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Question, What effect, if any, will Barbara have on the Central and Southeast United States? Regardless if she survives the mountains or not I would think her moisture will. Then you have a front that is parallel to the mean flow just sitting across the Midwest until Saturday. I would think it would create quite the soggy week for some.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
934. Patrap
1:51 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
2013MAY29 131500

3.2 999.4/
1.8 / 49.0
3.2 3.4 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF

-66.66 -67.11

UNIFRM N/A 15.30 94.98 FCST

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
933. BahaHurican
1:50 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
14:30 PM IST May 29 2013
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The depression over northern Bay of Bengal lays centered near 21.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km south southeast of Kalkata, India, 80 km south southeast of Canning, Bangladesh, and 140 km southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

The system is likely o move north northwestward and cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near Canning within a few hours.

Satellite based Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal, adjoining Bangladesh, and Gangetic, West Bengal, north of 14.0N and west of 92.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.
Is it me, or has this spring been a bit above average for BoB storms?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22150
932. wunderkidcayman
1:47 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting SLU:


Barbara's slow movement will count against it. If she was moving faster, chances are she would remain intact across the terrain.

yep very true

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hmm shear is Decreasing in the W Gulf of Hondura and increasing in the BOC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
931. BahaHurican
1:46 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Theres a chance it's remnants will become Andrea.
If it never falls below TD status, I think it stays Barbara. But there is a lot of doubt about conditions in the BoC being sufficiently favorable for regeneration at all.

Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there

NHC obviously sees that as possibility...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22150
930. Saltydogbwi1
1:45 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yeah I kinda see it to

oh yeah I talk to boss day before yesterday and he said that he believes we won't have it up till after June 1st and yeah they are revamping the website so whole new website with radar link


cool be nice to be able to have radar in the area it's been a long time coming
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
929. wunderkidcayman
1:44 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"


yeah I kinda see it to

oh yeah I talk to boss day before yesterday and he said that he believes we won't have it up till after June 1st and yeah they are revamping the website so whole new website with radar link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
928. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:43 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
927. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:42 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
XX/XX/XXL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
926. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:40 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
14:30 PM IST May 29 2013
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The depression over northern Bay of Bengal lays centered near 21.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km south southeast of Kalkata, India, 80 km south southeast of Canning, Bangladesh, and 140 km southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

The system is likely o move north northwestward and cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near Canning within a few hours.

Satellite based Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal, adjoining Bangladesh, and Gangetic, West Bengal, north of 14.0N and west of 92.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45319
925. Patrap
1:39 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Barbara RGB
Animated GIF

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
924. SLU
1:39 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there



Barbara's slow movement will count against it. If she was moving faster, chances are she would remain intact across the terrain.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5164
923. wunderkidcayman
1:38 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there


if she takes it so far it practically missed every forecast plot finding its self just E of the plots so it on the E side of cone plus NHC has it just about going due N in their cone if it was to do that it would be heading N now but its going NE-NNE so back to what you said I say No it look to be headin for the mountains
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
922. belizeit
1:38 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
921. BahaHurican
1:37 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting MahFL:


30 kts of screaming shear would say NO.
I hear shear is supposed to decrease. But we shall see.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And a ULL Tutt cell draping down from the tip of Cuba that is probably enhancing the baroclinic convective burst:

Link

It will probably diminish over the next several hours; I would be surprised if it were still in this shape by this evening.
The storms connected with that TUTT have been waxing and waning depending on the SSTs they are over, and to a certain extent Dmax / Dmin... We're going to get another strong cell in the Central Bahamas in couple of hours, and I'm assuming the blob we're looking at will bring rain to western JA and the Caymans.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22150
920. Saltydogbwi1
1:36 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Torito:


I kinda see slight rotation, but it may just be the storm dissipating.


could be.....we'll watch it throughout the day to see what it does....wish the radar here in cayman was back up online...its operational but they took the images down off the website for some reason. Maybe building a new website for it? I have not heard. Wonderkid may have more info on it.
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
919. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:36 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
T.C.F.W.
R.I.FLAG FLAG
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.45N/95.95W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
918. JTDailyUpdate
1:35 PM GMT on May 29, 2013


Average Model Intensity Error for TS Barbara on May 29th at 6:00Z; don't think she is gonna make it to hurricane status
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
917. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:35 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Toronto Pearson Int'l AirportDate: 9:00 AM EDT Wednesday 29 May 2013
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:70.2°F
Dewpoint:67.5°F
Humidity:91%
Wind:WSW 7 mph
Humidex: 83

after a wet and stormy night now we get the heat and more rain later
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
916. Torito
1:33 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


yeah I think more coffee is in order lol....was the last two frames of the image that caught my attention


I kinda see slight rotation, but it may just be the storm dissipating.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
915. Saltydogbwi1
1:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Torito:




Not really to me...


yeah I think more coffee is in order lol....was the last two frames of the image that caught my attention
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
914. StormPro
1:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"


I see it too...(sip)
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
913. Torito
1:31 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"




Not really to me...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
912. Torito
1:30 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
New invest? Doesnt look like anything to me... 94W:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
911. Saltydogbwi1
1:29 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
910. BahaHurican
1:28 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:


Let me guess, the driver of that car didn't think the water was deep enough to cause their car to drown? Silly silly Billy. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN YA GOOSE should be tattooed on his/her forehead.
Probably was parked there before the flood waters arrived.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22150
909. BahaHurican
1:27 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Hope you get to feeling better Auz, no apologies neccessary was really just picking on Taz
Why?

Barbara's crossing into the ATL basin would not impact our list of names. We would have two B storms. It happened quite recently with A names... Alvin?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22150
908. wunderkidcayman
1:25 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Lol you missed the "I" in official

oh what ever ya'll get the point!!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
907. Torito
1:24 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


And there is a nice drop of rocket fuel awaiting...



I can easily see this thing becoming an invest in the gulf of mexico once it goes across, as long as it stays off of the high rocky areas.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
906. Torito
1:23 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
905. VR46L
1:22 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting Torito:
This shows that barbara could get out of mexico with up to 30mph winds left...

Quoting Torito:
This shows that barbara could get out of mexico with up to 30mph winds left...



And there is a nice drop of rocket fuel awaiting...

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6901
904. Torito
1:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
This shows that barbara could get out of mexico with up to 30mph winds left...

Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
903. WDEmobmet
1:17 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok this is my forecast cone for Barbara



Lol you missed the "I" in official
Member Since: February 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
902. Torito
1:17 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS
BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED.

BASED
UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
TRACK.


THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 1200 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1200Z 15.2N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
901. VR46L
1:16 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6901
900. wunderkidcayman
1:16 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Ok this is my forecast cone for Barbara

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.