TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?


Don't have an official source for this answer, but one would think they measure the width of a Tornado from the 2 widest points where EF-0 damage is observed. Still searching for a link.
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Rainbow Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129420
ADVISORY for E pac storms come out at 8PM not 11PM like for Atlantic storms
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its getting busy up here in south Michigan and NE Illinois....

There was a torando warning E of Lansing near my workplace...I actually had to wait for the tornado signature to dissipate to make sure it was good to drive home...I don't think it touched down....

Brief torando warning near Flint, MI not too long ago...

Then we have a tornado moving into Grand Blanc, MI right now with debris ball....is their a tornado emergency issued?

Their is also a tornado warning in Joliet not far outside Chicago...anyone noticed?

The Grand Blanc storm had a PDS tornado warning earlier, just a regular tornado warning now. Rotation looks to have thankfully weakened. The structure is not in the typical direction... Also will probably get woken up be storms tonight. I still haven't got anything exciting.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Damage area--that's pretty vague. What is damage? A few shingles and small branches down? structural damage? Structural damage to a fixed house or a trailer? It seems so subjective.
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Quoting Ricki13th:


Oh Im Sorry! I meant 11pm eastern time.
You got it right. Taz is confused by time zones.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting Tazmanian:



no its comeing out at 8pm


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.



That's 8 pm PACIFIC TIME.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
The bloggers are out in force! They're coming to get you Bar-bar-a!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?
They determine tornado's width by how wide damaged area is, but I'm not completely sure on this. Will have to see what Scott got to say.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just googled Grand Island and that is just bizarre.

Just noticed that the Wikipedia page was loaded with discrepancies when compared to the official NWS page on the event. So if you looked there, it might have had some bad info. I altered it based upon verifiable NWS data.
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Quoting Ricki13th:


Oh Im Sorry! I meant 11pm eastern time.



no its comeing out at 8pm


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.



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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290120Z - 290315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS WITH AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLY AIDED BY A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE RIDGING...A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING SOUTHWEST OF
CHICAGO INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT RAPID...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS NOTED IN
LIGHTNING TRENDS...AND WDSS 5/9 KM CAPPI DATA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER /1.5-1.75+ INCHES/ EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH
30-40+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW... COUPLED WITH PRECIPITATION
LOADING...COULD CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 03-05Z.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 05/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 42048731 42708588 43058424 43058245 42088152 41228275
40658553 40478675 40658762 41308784 42048731
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Look like the tornado TIV-2 ran into is an EF-3 at 140 mph, which surprised me. TIV-2 claimed that the winds were 150-175 mph before instruments failure. We'll see if they update the tornado to higher wind speed or not.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=gid&storyid=94965&source=0
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Quoting Tazmanian:



comeing at 8pm not 11pm



Oh Im Sorry! I meant 11pm eastern time.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Weather spotters have a confirmed tornado on the ground. It's about to hit Grand Blanc.

Its getting busy up here in south Michigan and NE Illinois....

There was a torando warning E of Lansing near my workplace...I actually had to wait for the tornado signature to dissipate to make sure it was good to drive home...I don't think it touched down....

Brief torando warning near Flint, MI not too long ago...

Then we have a tornado moving into Grand Blanc, MI right now with debris ball....is their a tornado emergency issued?

Their is also a tornado warning in Joliet not far outside Chicago...anyone noticed?
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How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?
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Statement as of 9:43 PM EDT on May 28, 2013

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for east central Genesee County until 1015 PM EDT...

At 941 PM EDT... a confirmed tornado was located near Grand Blanc... and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazard... damaging tornado.

Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact... Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals. Tree damage is likely.

This tornadic storm will be near...
Grand Blanc around 950 PM EDT.
Atlas and Goodrich around 1000 PM EDT.

The warning includes areas surrounding these locations... Grand Blanc... Goodrich...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... a tornado is on the ground. Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 4295 8371 4299 8346 4287 8345 4287 8369 4289 8372 time... Mot... loc 0143z 234deg 24kt 4290 8369

Tornado... observed
hail... <.75in


Orow/rbp
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Quoting Ricki13th:


Full Advisory coming at 11pm



comeing at 8pm not 11pm

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...


Full Advisory coming at 11pm
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22263
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...

8pm PDT/11pm EDT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32694
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
What are the chances of Barbara moving into the gulf of mexico/bay of campeche?Will it get ripped apart by land before it has a chance to do that or it will it get destroyed by wind shear the instant it gets into the bay of campeche/gulf of mexico.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Debris ball on the storm in Michigan.


Weather spotters have a confirmed tornado on the ground. It's about to hit Grand Blanc.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Awesome sat pics Keeper. I believe the heavy rain is coming to parts of our country.
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Debris ball on the storm in Michigan.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32694
There is a debris ball(according to Dr. Forbes) near Lake Fenton, Michigan. This tornado is headed toward Grand Blanc, MI. I really wish I was on this storm.
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Thanks a lot! This year is going to be a busy one! Hope places like Florida and Texas is prepared. Florida in particularly, has not have a cane strike in awhile.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that at least sees the possibility of ornogrophic lifting aiding in re-focusing the energy within the axis of the monsoonal gyre causing an anomolous pressure fall in the SW Carib which gains instability as it heads nne towards the Caymans? ...uh duh.
wunderkid sees the same thing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55524
Quoting Caonabo:
Hi, guys. I'm in the center of The Dominican Republic. If a hurricane is coming I'll inform you and I'll send you pictures of damages or flooding.


we are two!!!
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why does it look like Barbara has a decent defined eye!?!? Seems to be stationary according to NHC and an eye seems to indicate strengthening beyond the 40 MPH they have listed.
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Am I the only one that at least sees the possibility of ornogrophic lifting aiding in re-focusing the energy within the axis of the monsoonal gyre causing an anomolous pressure fall in the SW Carib which gains instability as it heads nne towards the Caymans? ...uh duh.
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here in Toronto Ontario we are sitting at 57.7°F dense fog

temps are expected to rise to 68.0°F after midnight with T storms some of which may be severe

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Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah Bro,the COC is stacked right Now,I don't see any impediment for gradual intensificacion until landfall

Impressive


THIS IS NOT A 40MPH STORM!!!!!!



this is more like 55mph storm even showing a eye like thing
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I know I am behind the curve on reporting of this but Barbara? WOW! Like 5 hours ago I was checking NHC (around 3pm) and they still had 90% for Barbara and 10% for that other mess further out. Now we have storm 2 in East Pac and the blobulation was bumped to 30%! I know I am foaming at the mouth about when our season will begin here in east central FL because models (and overall global weather patterns similar to 2004) seem to have Florida under the gun right out the gate! If, God forbid we do get hit, I plan to try and post about current conditions if I am safely able to do so (for those other diehards on here like Gro, who, I am sure all this technology is a far cry from runner using leather satchels and papyrus scrolls for info updates)!!
On a personal note I lurk here even in the offseason, but the info and advice from the regulars on here who know their crap has been helpful and educational and I wanted to thank you guys for taking the time to explain things to me!
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Quoting Ricki13th:
Hello Wunderbloggers, its my first time on here, hope everyone is safe in the Midwest. Tonight looks to be a long one. And we now have Barbara in the EPAC; which regardless of strength is going to create mudslides for Mexico and Central America. Certainly Mother Nature showing its force.


Welcome! I've also recently joined too. It's a perfect time to join with the hurricane season starting up!
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
Barbara shouldn't survive into the Bay of Campeche. Land and the upper level environment being her biggest problems. But, the moisture surge Barbara will bring into central America may allow for development we've been anticipating in the Atlantic to occur in the Bay of Campeche now, instead of the western Caribbean. According to the operational GFS, the large amount of moisture she brings into central America will support strong monsoonal action over the continent which (combined with the midlat flow) will center and amplify the upper level anticyclonic flow over this region. This will favor divergent flow in the BOC, and provide unfavorable conditions for the western Caribbean. No guarantees at this point, hard to say if this thing will even have enough time to consolidate before it is pulled out. Lots of rain for central America and Florida though.

18z GFS shear at 5 days

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Hi, guys. I'm in the center of The Dominican Republic. If a hurricane is coming I'll inform you and I'll send you pictures of damages or flooding.
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Quoting allancalderini:
cat1 intensity is not out of the question.


Yeah Bro,the COC is stacked right Now,I don't see any impediment for gradual intensificacion until landfall

Impressive


THIS IS NOT A 40MPH STORM!!!!!!
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Oooo... Interesting. Watch could be issued for my area.

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS WITH AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A mile and a half? Mile and three quarters?

A Mile an a half? Is this Oklahoma tornado?
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Quoting belizeit:
Sie mueszen schlafen gehen sonst sind sie morgen zu muede


So very true! Danke!!
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Quoting washingtonian115.
hmmm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55524

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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