TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE EVEN SHOWN AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 0000 UTC...BUT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY SINCE THAT TIME TO START
WITH AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

A LITTLE BIT OF RELOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE DATA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BARBARA NOW HAS A
MOTION OF 030/3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BARBARA INLAND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW
ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREMELY WARM
WATER ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF BARBARA...ITS RELATIVELY SMALL INNER CORE...AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY STEEP INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE
COAST. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING A TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN
THE VERY SHORT-TERM...AND BRINGS BARBARA TO 55 KT IN 12 HOURS.
BARBARA COULD GAIN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...BUT TIME WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF BARBARA AND ITS REMNANTS...AS
WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.5N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.3N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.7N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 17.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Tropical Storm BARBARA Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
NHC shifted cone E and S and dissipating Barbara quicker than before

#2


#1A


#1
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Barbara is up to 45 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

wow I was close I had 14.2N 95.7W and NHC says 14.5N 95.7W though I didn't really see any N movements until last frames
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595. Skyepony (Mod)
Barbara late track models.
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...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BENTON HARBOR TO COVERT TO
BLOOMINGDALE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAUGATUCK... ALLEGAN... KALAMAZOO...
BANGOR... DECATUR... PAW PAW...
FENNVILLE... SCHOOLCRAFT... PLAINWELL...
WAYLAND... RICHLAND... LACOTA...
LAWRENCE... HAMILTON TWP... GANGES...
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593. Hugo5
radar showing two tornados now near amarillo


second one has now dropped
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That is nice looking hooker in Amarillo...

Stay safe.
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591. Skyepony (Mod)
Extreme Weather in Brazil on Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 02:59 (02:59 AM) UTC.
Description
Part of the roof of a brand new stadium that will be used for the upcoming Confederations Cup collapsed in the northeastern Brazilian city of Salvador Monday following heavy rains. Officials said no injuries were reported and only the eastern sector of Arena Fonte Nova which will also host World Cup games next year was damaged. "Following heavy downpours on Salvador early Monday, water accumulated in the 36 panels of the roof's (plastic) membrane located in the eastern sector, triggering its collapse," Fonte Nova Participacoes, the agency that manages the stadium, said in a statement. It added that equipment damaged in the collapse was being tested to determine the cause of the mishap and its impact on the roof structure as well as assess what repairs are needed,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Barbara is up to 45 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it the COC of Barbara is now 14.2N 95.7W if this is so then I got to tell ya Barbara is moving E BUT Slowly before it was 14.2N 96.0W and before that is was 14.2N 96.5W so its moving
----------> that way

Still I do expect it to start movin N soon
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by the looks of it the COC of Barbara is now 14.2N 95.7W if this is so then I got to tell ya Barbara is moving E BUT Slowly before it was 14.2N 96.0W and before that is was 14.2N 96.5W so its moving
----------> that way
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587. Skyepony (Mod)
TX Panhandle.. west of Amarillo.

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@28storms 1m

Goodrich, Michigan: People reportedly trapped in a high school & in homes. Trees & wires down in area. #MIwx
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584. Skyepony (Mod)
Hailstorm in the same place as that landslide.

Hailstorm in Mexico on Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 15:20 (03:20 PM) UTC.
Description
A hailstorm in Tepeji, Mexico, left seven people dead, four injured and 300 homes damaged, officials said. The storm struck the downtown area for about an hour on Sunday, officials said. The hailstorm softened a hill, causing an avalanche that fell onto a taxi carrying five people and a van with two occupants. The travelers were killed, El Universal reported. Mayor Fernando Miranda said that homes and schools suffered structural damage and that floodwater in many areas was six-feet deep. Assistant Secretary of Civil Protection and Risk Management, Miguel Garcia, said that the storm was exacerbated by a lack of infrastructure in the city. He said the city is building a rainwater collector to help during storms. It will be finished in 2014, Garcia said.
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583. Skyepony (Mod)
Landslide in Mexico on Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 03:16 (03:16 AM) UTC.
Description
At least seven people were killed on the Mexico-Queretaro highway in central Mexico, after a landslide buried several vehicles, the Federal Police confirmed Monday. The landslide occurred in Tepeji del Rio municipality in the central state of Hidalgo, due to strong rain and hail on Sunday night. Tons of soil and mud trapped at least five vehicle which were passing the highway at the moment of the landslide. Those killed were three men and two women who were in a taxi, as well as one woman and one man in a red van. Four other passengers of the red van were injured and taken to San Jose hospital in Naucalpan, state of Mexico. People from Tepeji del Rio are trying to clean their homes, as the storm had damaged 150 houses. Mexico's Federal Highway Police, the Ministry of Communications and Transporting, the Army and rescue teams from the state of Mexico and from Mexico City, were helping in the cleaning work and removing disaster rubble.
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582. Hugo5
easy to see hook on the back of the amarillo cell now.
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Large cone tornado in the Texas Panhandle.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
580. Skyepony (Mod)
Barbara's rawT is 3.5, the final Tnumber is 2.1

The scene is a curved band. The center of circulation is building but that isn't an eye yet.
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Quoting FutureWx6221:



I'll let you guys be the judge here, what does Barbara look like to you on the Dvorak scale?

I'm thinking at least 3, but more likely 3.5, which puts it at 50-55 knots.

Wow Barbara is getting up there
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People in the midwest region dealing with the tornado outbreak and in Mexico with a strengthening cyclone stay safe. Goodnight everyone!!!
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Oh wow

SevereStudios ‏@severestudios 1m

Law enforcement reports house leveled northwest of Lake Fenton, MI from earlier tornado.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
T2, Row 4.

Quoting FutureWx6221:



I'll let you guys be the judge here, what does Barbara look like to you on the Dvorak scale?

I'm thinking at least 3, but more likely 3.5, which puts it at 50-55 knots.
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The cell near Amarillo is looking nasty too.
Link
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Quoting FutureWx6221:
***Poll***: Does the recent trend in organization merit a hurricane watch at any time before Barbara's landfall?
No. I know Barbara is impressive, but I still don't think it'll reach hurricane strength.
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@NHCDirector 2m

Winds of a #hurricane not just a beach problem. Hugo 1989 brought hurricane-force winds to Charlotte, NC


Yeah, my mom was in a college in Charlotte area when Hugo came in 1989. She spent the night in a building that had the basement flooding nearly up to the first floor. Her stories of her survival that night when I was young triggered my interests in meteorology.
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WFUS53 KDTX 290203
TORDTX
MIC087-290300-
/O.NEW.KDTX.TO.W.0005.130529T0203Z-130529T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAPEER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 958 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODRICH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HADLEY AROUND 1015 PM EDT.
METAMORA AROUND 1025 PM EDT.
THORNVILLE AROUND 1030 PM EDT.
DRYDEN AND ATTICA AROUND 1040 PM EDT.
IMLAY CITY AROUND 1045 PM EDT.
ALMONT AROUND 1050 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
METAMORA... IMLAY CITY... HADLEY...
DRYDEN... ALMONT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 4289 8299 4288 8327 4288 8345 4302 8345
4308 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 264DEG 26KT 4292 8350

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

OROW/RBP
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I think she peaks at 90mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



I'll let you guys be the judge here, what does Barbara look like to you on the Dvorak scale?

I'm thinking at least 3, but more likely 3.5, which puts it at 50-55 knots.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ADVISORY for E pac storms come out at 8PM not 11PM like for Atlantic storms
It's the same. They both comes out at 8 pm PACIFIC TIME/11 pm EASTERN TIME. No differences.
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Quoting FutureWx6221:
***Poll***: Does the recent trend in organization merit a hurricane watch at any time before Barbara's landfall?


I would do it to be safe. With the way Barbara is going, anything is possible.
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
567. Hugo5
cell near beloit and osborne ks looks to have a pretty good hook, suprised no warning is out.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Seems like that is hard to identify in a severe thunderstorm where there can be a lot of 60-70 mph gusts causing minor damage anyway. Although they can identify wind direction to keep from confusing it with straight line winds.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Seems like that is hard to identify in a severe thunderstorm where there can be a lot of 60-70 mph gusts causing minor damage anyway. Although they can identify wind direction to keep from confusing it with straight line winds.


Yes i'm sure the surveyors take into account the wind direction and type of damage that is observed in relation to straight line or rotational winds. In addition first hand accounts form storm chaser and the general public is useful information to determine if it was indeed tornado damage.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Storms coming off the lake. It's strong over by Chicago and to the southwest.

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Quoting Patrap:
Rainbow Loop



Heavy convection wrap around the center. However ever its still has land and dry impeding its NW quadrant. However this looks like a 50 mph storm in the next advisory. Still looking at a peak at 60-65 before landfall.
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***Poll***: Does the recent trend in organization merit a hurricane watch at any time before Barbara's landfall?
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Near Byron, Michigan earlier:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting wxchaser97:

I was excited for that cell as it was aimed directly at SE Oakland County, and then it went poof. I'm sure the MCS will find a way to weaken or move around me as usual >:(


LOL...I prefer things that way...just some pop-up t-storms is nice and relaxing...just like the summers back where I grew up in NC...
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EP022013 - Tropical Storm BARBARA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853

just 5 and 10 knots of shear


850 mb
not too shabby
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557. Hugo5
Two active cells that need watching, The first being the cell near Amarillo TX, Second cell in Kansas
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Quoting IceCoast:


Don't have an official source for this answer, but one would think they measure the width of a Tornado from the 2 widest points where EF-0 damage is observed. Still searching for a link.


Seems like that is hard to identify in a severe thunderstorm where there can be a lot of 60-70 mph gusts causing minor damage anyway. Although they can identify wind direction to keep from confusing it with straight line winds.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Don't worry...nothing exciting for me either...that adjacent tornado warning near my workplace quickly fizzled...so other than a brief period of dark skies I didn't get much action.....

Yeah...I did see your post earlier tonight from the SPC...looks like the MCS over Chicago may translate here with possible damaging winds for you & me tonight...

I was excited for that cell as it was aimed directly at SE Oakland County, and then it went poof. I'm sure the MCS will find a way to weaken or move around me as usual >:(
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Caonabo:
Hi, guys. I'm in the center of The Dominican Republic. If a hurricane is coming I'll inform you and I'll send you pictures of damages or flooding.


Wlcome aboard.

I am in the Turks and Caicos to your North, and I look forward to any reports you give from the DR.
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835
WFUS54 KAMA 290154
TORAMA
TXC117-359-290230-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0005.130529T0154Z-130529T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
854 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 851 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOOTLEG...OR 34 MILES WEST
OF HEREFORD. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
SIMMS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3528 10277 3491 10258 3484 10304 3511 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 252DEG 17KT 3498 10294
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting wxchaser97:

The Grand Blanc storm had a PDS tornado warning earlier, just a regular tornado warning now. Rotation looks to have thankfully weakened. The structure is not in the typical direction... Also will probably get woken up be storms tonight. I still haven't got anything exciting.


Don't worry...nothing exciting for me either...that adjacent tornado warning near my workplace quickly fizzled...so other than a brief period of dark skies I didn't get much action.....

Yeah...I did see your post earlier tonight from the SPC...looks like the MCS over Chicago may translate here with possible damaging winds for you & me tonight...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ADVISORY for E pac storms come out at 8PM not 11PM like for Atlantic storms

8pm Pacific Daylight Time (PDT), not Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). So for us on the east coast it still comes out at 11pm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?


Don't have an official source for this answer, but one would think they measure the width of a Tornado from the 2 widest points where EF-0 damage is observed. Still searching for a link.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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