TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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THAT AMARILLO TORNADO SEEMS TO JUST KEEP GOING
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image center over my general area

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DEAF SMITH TX-OLDHAM TX-
1048 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OLDHAM AND NORTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILDORADO...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF VEGA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE
TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP
TO BASEBALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM AND NORTHEASTERN
DEAF SMITH COUNTIES.
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ACCN10 CWTO 282020
Forecast of thunderstorm potential for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada at 3:57 PM EDT Tuesday 28 May 2013.
The next statement will be issued at 4:00 AM Wednesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..A few non-severe thunderstorms are expected over
Southwestern and South Central Ontario with heavy downpours likely.
Local amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres are possible with
thunderstorms. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over
Southwestern Ontario with torrential downpours and damaging winds as
the main threats. Chance of a non-severe thunderstorm along the
Manitoba border and over Eastern Ontario.

Wednesday..Isolated thunderstorms are expected over Southern and
Eastern Ontario. There is slight risk that some of these storms may
be severe, especially near the Lower Great Lakes, with torrential
downpours, damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Chance of a
non-severe thunderstorm over Northeastern Ontario near Northern Lake
Huron early in the day and over Northwestern Ontario in the
Afternoon and evening.

Thursday..Chance of non-severe thunderstorms from northwestern
Across Northeastern Ontario to south central and into Eastern
Ontario. A thunderstorm or two over southwestern and Eastern Ontario
may approach severe limits. Heavy downpours, gusty winds and small
hail would be the main concerns.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
A thunderstorm is defined as severe if it produces one or more of the
following:

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres in diameter or greater.
- rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres or greater in one hour or less.
- a tornado.

Note: this forecast is issued twice daily from May 1 to September 30.

END/OSPC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56048
Quoting AussieStorm:

Keeper, you're in Toronto, right?
just ne of Toronto in scarbrough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56048
Puerto Angel radar
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
storms heading towards my area here in scar


Keeper, you're in Toronto, right?

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Rotation has weakened significantly on that Panhandle cell, and its well out in the hinterlands...shouldn't harm many people unless you are unfortunate enough to be driving down a country road at night or you just happen to be one of the few folks who has a ranch in that region.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Yeah, that's very scary. I also have several family members who live a couple miles south of the affected areas.


My family lives around Lansing, just north of it. Fenton is east of Lansing as I recall from my last visit.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
storms heading towards my area here in scar

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56048
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Fenton, MI. They're having a bad night tonight, this is just east of almost my entire family.

Yeah, that's very scary. I also have several family members who live a couple miles south of the affected areas.
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T.C.F.W.
R.I.FLAG OFF
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.25N/95.95W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56048
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Fenton, MI. They're having a bad night tonight, this is just north of almost my entire family.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a picture of the multi-vortex tornado near Byron, Michigan earlier. It reminds me of the '65 Palm Sunday tornado with a smaller cone and then a main wedge-like tornado.



Well I was going to post those pics but I'm slow. It will be interesting to see what this tornado is rated. Hope your family didn't get impacted.
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Not trying to burst anyones bubble here, but the radar indicated rotation is WELL SOUTH of Vega, Texas...probably by at least a dozen miles. It's hard to tell with texas size counties.
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I have a feeling Babara could get very close to hurricane strength if not hit the 75 mph mark right before landfall
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Fenton, MI. They're having a bad night tonight, this is just east of almost my entire family.
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Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Dry - Stay Warm
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628. Hugo5
good picture

http://www.newschannel10.com/category/181782/stor mtrack-10-interactive-radar
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Any clue how big that tornado is heading to Vega, TX?
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Rotation isn't that impressive. Also, it's going to miss Vera, TX. On path toward Amarillo, but it's still a long way to go before arriving to city.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
NORTHERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

* AT 1112 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KALAMAZOO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATTLE CREEK...RICHLAND...NASHVILLE...GALESBURG...AUGUSTA ...HICKORY
CORNERS...SPRINGFIELD...BANFIELD...BEDFORD...DOWL ING...LACEY...

ASSYRIA...MORROW LAKE...HOWLANDSBURG...HIGHLAND PARK...YORKVILLE...
GULL LAKE...FORT CUSTER...LEVEL PARK AND BEADLE LAKE.

...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
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This is a picture of the multi-vortex tornado near Byron, Michigan earlier. It reminds me of the '65 Palm Sunday tornado with a smaller cone and then a main wedge-like tornado.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32819
623. Hugo5
I hate to say this, but according to the supper doppler from the link the rotation has gone up, and the tornado appears to be headed to the center of Vege tx.
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Amarillo only spans 2 counties north and south, Potter and Randall. Deaf Smith and Oldham are to the west and Amarillo are not a part of those counties.
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Quoting Hugo5:


yes, to both questions. the tornado is in the suburbs of amarillo. no local news reports that i am pulling up.


Thanks for your service - stay safe and come back home.

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Quoting Hugo5:
im watching this from afghanistan


Link

drop by my page to mark my vistor map

thanks in advance
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My husbands family is in Amarillo, talking to MIL now, she said the tornado has not made it to Amarillo yet. Had strong gusty winds earlier today. Its about 20-30 miles away now.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT

* AT 1048 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLOMA...

AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OSHTEMO WERE STRENGTHENING.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KALAMAZOO... DECATUR... BANGOR...
PAW PAW... RICHLAND... SCHOOLCRAFT...
PORTER TWP... MCDONALD... KENDALL...
LAWRENCE... LAWTON... GOBLES...
KEELER... GLENDALE... MATTAWAN...

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

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616. Hugo5
very interested to see what this tornado is on the scale.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

The Grand Blanc storm had a PDS tornado warning earlier, just a regular tornado warning now. Rotation looks to have thankfully weakened. The structure is not in the typical direction... Also will probably get woken up be storms tonight. I still haven't got anything exciting.
That's because I'm over here in Farmington focusing on keeping the weather as boring as possible. Sorry!
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Video from the Dominator crew of the massive tornado near Bennington, KS.

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612. Hugo5
looks like city of Vega is in direct path, or very close. storm also appears to be weakening
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www.newschannel10.com super-doppler-online
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610. Hugo5
Quoting Dakster:
Hugo are you in the US Military?


yes, to both questions. the tornado is in the suburbs of amarillo. no local news reports that i am pulling up.
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Quoting Dakster:
Patrap is that a populated area in your storm tracker?

I hope not...


Amarillo, TX wundermap
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Hugo are you in the US Military?
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Patrap is that a populated area in your storm tracker?

I hope not...
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606. Hugo5
im watching this from afghanistan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

077
WFUS54 KAMA 290257
TORAMA
TXC117-359-290330-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0007.130529T0257Z-130529T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF SIMMS...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
VEGA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
VEGA... SIMMS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3537 10251 3505 10228 3497 10268 3514 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 239DEG 16KT 3509 10264
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Quoting Hugo5:
tornado debris cloud on radar for amarillo


Any tv links?
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sounds like a sad miserable dead for Barbara after landfall expect to dissipate in 48 hours if not sooner
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Amarillo
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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601. Hugo5
tornado debris cloud on radar for amarillo
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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE EVEN SHOWN AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 0000 UTC...BUT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY SINCE THAT TIME TO START
WITH AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

A LITTLE BIT OF RELOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE DATA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BARBARA NOW HAS A
MOTION OF 030/3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BARBARA INLAND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW
ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREMELY WARM
WATER ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF BARBARA...ITS RELATIVELY SMALL INNER CORE...AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY STEEP INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE
COAST. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING A TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN
THE VERY SHORT-TERM...AND BRINGS BARBARA TO 55 KT IN 12 HOURS.
BARBARA COULD GAIN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...BUT TIME WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF BARBARA AND ITS REMNANTS...AS
WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.5N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.3N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.7N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 17.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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