TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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That should be right over Amarillo right now.


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Now there's no confirmed reports of tornado in Amarillo. Might be a good news. Hail is just as deadly as tornado however so stay indoor.

@TxStormChasers 1m

11:51 PM: Several reports of up to baseball size hail in Amarillo. No confirmed reports of a tornado in the city at this time. #txwx
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100675
Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like Dmin hit the wx impacting our area... now wondering if the storms over the WCar and Central America will persist since Barbara is now consolidating so nicely...

Also interesting to note that most of the rain around the basin is related to upper level features...


as soon as Barbara hit land most of its storms will eventually end up in the gulf of honduras
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Basically, mets on new station in Amarillo left for basement with the radar still running. Tornado reported to be 2 miles SW of downtown Amarillo.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
There is a tornado on ground entering Amarillo. Crap...

@TxStormChasers: 11:40 PM: #Tornado confirmed by spotters near 45th Avenue and Soncy Road on the west side of Amarillo. #txwx
Geez... right after the wx guy says, "Sleep tight, guys, nothing to see here..."

Wonder how long after this he's going to keep that job.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting Astrometeor:


Come up north a little bit, that late winter and lingering cold so far has kept the bugs at bay, if not killed off some of them.



That's not good. Hope people are still watching the weather rather than taking that earlier "all clear" signal serious.
Also, congrats on your new job.
Thanks. I think this is just a major hail event going on in Amarillo. There's no clear rotation on radar, but you never know.
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Quoting Grothar:


No rain here at all. Just very cloudy hot, humid, and 11 million mosquitoes.
You can keep the humidity and the mosquitoes, tyvm... it's remarkably cool here for the last week in May. Quite a different feel to the air from true hurricane / TS rain, which is hot water falling through hot air... And I expect as soon as this system is through here, the horrid humidity will begin...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting TomTaylor:


Eye is probably trying to form there, yes. For now that is not an eye. There is no well-defined ring of thunderstorms. I hope we aren't starting the premature eye declaration stuff all over again.


There's no eye yet, but a warm spot has been evident in infrared and microwave images on a periodic basis.
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WOW anyone listening to that livestream I put up, the news station is going crazy, hearing tornado outside they are saying.
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Quoting Grothar:


No rain here at all. Just very cloudy hot, humid, and 11 million mosquitoes.


Come up north a little bit, that late winter and lingering cold so far has kept the bugs at bay, if not killed off some of them.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
There is a tornado on ground entering Amarillo. Crap...

@TxStormChasers: 11:40 PM: #Tornado confirmed by spotters near 45th Avenue and Soncy Road on the west side of Amarillo. #txwx


That's not good. Hope people are still watching the weather rather than taking that earlier "all clear" signal serious.
Also, congrats on your new job.
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Baseball size hail reported in Amarillo. NWS mets confirmed tornado in the city.
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Live Coverage in Amarillo:
http://myhighplains.com/news/livestream
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http://www.newschannel10.com/category/182022/super- doppler-online Using Metro map on the right with Rotation checked. On a scale of 1-10 the tornado entering Amarillo has risen from a 1 to a 3. There's another @3 NE of Amarillo.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

TXC375-381-290500-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130529T0500Z/
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RANDALL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1136 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE REPORTING A TORNADO NEAR 45TH AVENUE AND
SONCY ROAD. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
AMARILLO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
AMARILLO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 123.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 80.
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting TomTaylor:


Eye is probably trying to form there, yes. For now that is not an eye. There is no well-defined ring of thunderstorms. I hope we aren't starting the premature eye declaration stuff all over again.


Did you say premature?

Let me get warmed up here,

*cough* I SEES IT GUYS! AN EYE!!
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There is a tornado on ground entering Amarillo. Crap...

@TxStormChasers: 11:40 PM: #Tornado confirmed by spotters near 45th Avenue and Soncy Road on the west side of Amarillo. #txwx
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Is is not raining in S FL? My Wunderground widget says clear for the Ft. Lauderdale area, but the satellite is showing full cloud cover...


No rain here at all. Just very cloudy hot, humid, and 11 million mosquitoes.
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Barbara is looking really good and getting really high cloud tops starting to see white spots coming out on rainbow loop
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Quoting Grothar:
Impressive thunderstorms over central Africa




Headed our way eventually, I would imagine.

Did u see my question above?

Ah... the rain is down again... I have a feeling locations east of here, especially Eleuthera, are getting absolutely soaked...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Talked to MIL earlier in Amarillo, lots of damage from earlier this afternoon, power lines down, signs blown out etc....have not heard from her since about 10 pm central time. Anxiously awaiting word.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye aye.



Eye is probably trying to form there, yes. For now that is not an eye. There is no well-defined ring of thunderstorms. I hope we aren't starting the premature eye declaration stuff all over again.
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Very large hail headed straight for Amarillo. The city is also under a tornado warning. Bad night.

Good night.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
Amarillo is under tornado warning. Rotation is still not healthy, but tornado could drops anytime. If it's not tornado that will hurt you, it's hail. 3 inches hail is reported for that cell.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO NEAR
31N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 32N58W TO
29N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH IS N
OF BERMUDA WITH A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE
AZORES. W ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH WED. A
TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA WED THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT. T

This is from the 8 p.m. TWD.

You can always plus another one to make it even.... only don't let the finger slip... lol

I'm still trying to figure out how pple read and POST to the blog from a cell phone... they must know something I don't...

Yeah, lol...
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8421
TORNADO WARNING
TXC375-381-290500-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0010.130529T0428Z-130529T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHERN POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUSHLAND...OR 12 MILES WEST
OF AMARILLO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
AMARILLO... BUSHLAND...


THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 114 AND 123.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 55 AND 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Impressive thunderstorms over central Africa




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Is is not raining in S FL? My Wunderground widget says clear for the Ft. Lauderdale area, but the satellite is showing full cloud cover...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
I hope people in Amarillo know about this storm...
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO NEAR
31N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 32N58W TO
29N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH IS N
OF BERMUDA WITH A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE
AZORES. W ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH WED. A
TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA WED THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT. T

This is from the 8 p.m. TWD.

Quoting nigel20:
Hey baha!

Sorry about the minus...I was trying to plus your post but I accidentaly press the minus option.
You can always plus another one to make it even.... only don't let the finger slip... lol

I'm still trying to figure out how pple read and POST to the blog from a cell phone... they must know something I don't...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687


Looks like Dmin hit the wx impacting our area... now wondering if the storms over the WCar and Central America will persist since Barbara is now consolidating so nicely...

Also interesting to note that most of the rain around the basin is related to upper level features...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting nigel20:
Hey baha!

Sorry about the minus...I was trying to plus your post but I accidentaly press the minus option.


More spacing on those would be nice. I accidentally hit the minus button once on one of Dr. Masters' posts. Didn't mean it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye aye.


I'm happy that this radar is back up as it will give us the best view of what's going on with Barbara.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8421
Hey baha!

Sorry about the minus...I was trying to plus your post but I accidentaly press the minus option.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8421
Quoting floridaT:
http://www.connectamarillo.com/news/video.aspx#.U aV _3tiTU3I Check this out the meteorologist in Amarillo telling viewers they can sleep well tonight as the storms will be gone by then
Well, they only got one more cell with tornado warning in it and it's over. However, it's pretty premature of that meteorologist to be telling people they're safe. You never know if tornado is going to forms again. Rotation is not very impressive, but it's not done either.
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Eye aye.

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Quoting Hugo5:
im watching this from afghanistan
I'm assuming rather drier there than here right now...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
http://www.connectamarillo.com/news/video.aspx#.UaV _3tiTU3I Check this out the meteorologist in Amarillo telling viewers they can sleep well tonight as the storms will be gone by then
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Evening night crew.

Rain is down heavily here in my area of New Providence. I missed the late night weather forecast here, but it seems forecasters are continuing to warn about extensive flooding.

I notice quite a few of our bloggers are under the gun tonight. I hope everybody stays safe out there...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
659. DDR
0z gfs continuing with the rains in and around T&T.
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Nice curved band and a developing inner core:

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Looks very good.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF WILDORADO...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VEGA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
BUSHLAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 120.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
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Rotation for Texas tornado is still not impressive though...

NWS Norman on Twitter is thinking the chance for tornadoes is increasing especially for Western Oklahoma.
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BREAKING: People are trapped in a bar that collapsed near Grand Blanc, MI, in a #tornado around 9:30pm, Tues. Rescue underway - @TWCBreaking

Sounds kind of bad.
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convection is increasing in the W Caribbean now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
they all seem to keep going evening/tonight
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THAT AMARILLO TORNADO SEEMS TO JUST KEEP GOING
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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