TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
kori u think well get a 1 o'clock edition?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Was just thinking about your radar... and ours... they would be great to have online in situations like this. I tried getting on the the BMO website this afternoon, and the whole site seems to be offline. That's something for me to call them about tomorrow.

It has been down for somtime now...I normally post info from the BMO on my blog, but i've not done so in a while.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8170
Quoting Grothar:


I wouldn't expect to see much more than 35 kts. Maybe 40 in a little while.


Oh come on.
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Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, they also had some rain earlier along with Ocho Rios. It's a pity our radar is not available to the public even though it's back up...the met service of Jamaica said that it will be available to the public in July.
Link
Was just thinking about your radar... and ours... they would be great to have online in situations like this. I tried getting on the the BMO website this afternoon, and the whole site seems to be offline. That's something for me to call them about tomorrow.
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Wow. Oahu has been deluged by the great amount of rainfall today, especially on the Koolau Range.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting BahaHurican:
I want to be the first to call, Pinhole Eye!

[Okay, I'm calming down now.]
I tell u one thing it looks real good when Gro showed me that map. Its really showing us that the MJO is there!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... hasn't completely stopped here since about 6 p.m. It's lightened up for the moment, but it's been cycling like that all evening. Looking at Grothar's post #725, I'd say we have at least a couple more rounds coming before the night is through.

Looks like Montego Bay area might be getting some rain right now.

Yeah, they also had some rain earlier along with Ocho Rios. It's a pity our radar is not available to the public even though it's back up...the met service of Jamaica said that it will be available to the public in July.
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8170
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
anyways I'm extremely tired I'll be back inateast half an ahour rehar
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Quoting KoritheMan:


40 kt pending the upcoming intermediate advisory from the NHC.

There have been several tornadoes today, including a couple of large, strong ones. Southeast Michigan in particular was hit hard. Amarillo was also under a tornado warning not too long ago, although I am unaware of any tornadic damage in the area. Very large hail, though.
Isee i go to work for a little while and all hell breaks loose!
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Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know you were in Hawaii.


Well now you know. :)
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
Flash flood warning is up for my location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
705 PM HST TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

*
THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2161 15806 2173 15796 2133 15769 2129 15784

$$
Looks like you guys are getting in on the tropical rainfall...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


40 kt pending the upcoming intermediate advisory from the NHC.

There have been several tornadoes today, including a couple of large, strong ones. Southeast Michigan in particular was hit hard. Amarillo was also under a tornado warning not too long ago, although I am unaware of any tornadic damage in the area. Very large hail, though.


I wouldn't expect to see much more than 35 kts. Maybe 40 in a little while.
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Quoting Grothar:


Looks like you are going to get some heavy rain this week. It just started up with some heavy squalls here.



They've been forecasting another round of flooding, this time extended to much of The Bahamas, especially since they don't expect the wx to break before Friday. Some of the residents in lowlying areas got up to 10' of water in their homes last week, and I hear people on the eastern end of the island were sandbagging this afternoon.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Flash flood warning is up for my location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
705 PM HST TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 650 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR NEAR PUNALUU. THE STREAM GAGE AT PUNALUU STREAM
WAS AT 6.75 FT AND THE STREAM GAGE AT KAHANA STREAM WAS AT 5.77
FT. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU...LAIE...KAAAWA AND KAHUKU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2161 15806 2173 15796 2133 15769 2129 15784

$$


I didn't know you were in Hawaii.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... hasn't completely stopped here since about 6 p.m. It's lightened up for the moment, but it's been cycling like that all evening. Looking at Grothar's post #725, I'd say we have at least a couple more rounds coming before the night is through.

Looks like Montego Bay area might be getting some rain right now.


Looks like you are going to get some heavy rain this week. It just started up with some heavy squalls here.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
It looks like its getting stronger! and its wrapping!
I want to be the first to call, Pinhole Eye!

[Okay, I'm calming down now.]
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Finally! How much stronger is she?
ANY torniac activity?


40 kt pending the upcoming intermediate advisory from the NHC.

There have been several tornadoes today, including a couple of large, strong ones. Southeast Michigan in particular was hit hard. Amarillo was also under a tornado warning not too long ago, although I am unaware of any tornadic damage in the area. Very large hail, though.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
It looks like its getting stronger! and its wrapping!


It sure does.

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Quoting nigel20:

Is it still raining at the moment?
Yeah... hasn't completely stopped here since about 6 p.m. It's lightened up for the moment, but it's been cycling like that all evening. Looking at Grothar's post #725, I'd say we have at least a couple more rounds coming before the night is through.

Looks like Montego Bay area might be getting some rain right now.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... I am sure I cannot think who that might be.... lol

I am thinking I'm not convinced about the TC potential in the BoC, I can guess where the energy for the sub-tropical development off the SE CONUS is coming from, and the central ATL must be a Twave we don't currently see...

IOW, nothing much.


OK, no more hints for you :P
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Quoting Grothar:
It looks like its getting stronger! and its wrapping!
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I can think of one. :)
LOL... I am sure I cannot think who that might be.... lol

Quoting Grothar:
What do you guys think of these?



I am thinking I'm not convinced about the TC potential in the BoC, I can guess where the energy for the sub-tropical development off the SE CONUS is coming from, and the central ATL must be a Twave we don't currently see...

IOW, nothing much.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not sure where that is on Carmichael Rd.... hmmm... must be on the western end somewhere. I note there's not very much water there. I drove through a lot more along the more northern roads - Wulff Rd, W. Bay St - trying to get to / from work this morning.

Is it still raining at the moment?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8170
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Quoting KoritheMan:


hey bro

We have Barbara. That good enough? ;)
Finally! How much stronger is she?
ANY torniac activity?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
What do you guys think of these?



WOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

I saw this picture ( Carmichael Road) on Tribune242 twitter page earlier today
Link
I'm not sure where that is on Carmichael Rd.... hmmm... must be on the western end somewhere. I note there's not very much water there. I drove through a lot more along the more northern roads - Wulff Rd, W. Bay St - trying to get to / from work this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flash flood warning is up for my location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
705 PM HST TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 650 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR NEAR PUNALUU. THE STREAM GAGE AT PUNALUU STREAM
WAS AT 6.75 FT AND THE STREAM GAGE AT KAHANA STREAM WAS AT 5.77
FT. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU...LAIE...KAAAWA AND KAHUKU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2161 15806 2173 15796 2133 15769 2129 15784

$$
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was laughing when I saw you post that question earlier... I mean, was there ANYbody who said this wouldn't develop??? lol

I think we've gotten pretty good bout calling these early ones in the EPac... the WCar is a different story.


Yes, I can think of one. :)
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What do you guys think of these?



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Quoting bigwes6844:
I just got off somebody tell me wats going on!!!


hey bro

We have Barbara. That good enough? ;)
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Quoting Grothar:


I saw you writing about it. You're a good boy. :)


I can be. ;)
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I just got off somebody tell me wats going on!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


I saw you writing about it. You're a good boy. :)
I was laughing when I saw you post that question earlier... I mean, was there ANYbody who said this wouldn't develop??? lol

I think we've gotten pretty good bout calling these early ones in the EPac... the WCar is a different story.
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Very cold cloud tops continue to appear on conventional IR imagery. The image below shows some tops <-80C:

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Time (EDT) Temp. Dew Point Humidity Pressure Visibility Wind Dir Wind Speed Gust Speed Precip Events Conditions
12:00 AM 73.4 °F 69.8 °F 88% 30.10 in - East 6.9 mph - N/A Rain Rain

Still waiting for 1 am...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not trying to brag, but I have been nothing less than totally consistent from the start with a forecast for rapid intensification near the coast. Seeing as though it has another 18-24 hours over water and appears to be developing an inner core, we haven't actually seen anything yet. I'm doing a blog right now, and I anticipate a 60 kt tropical storm at landfall tomorrow evening, but I would place the odds of Barbara reaching minimal hurricane status at 15%.

Now to be fair, I did kind of consider this morning that it might not develop into anything beyond a minimal tropical storm because it kept having organization issues, but I never surrendered the likelihood of development in my forecasts. It's kind of amazing how after all these years, some people still aren't patient with this stuff; the cyclogenesis process takes time.


I saw you writing about it. You're a good boy. :)
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Quoting Grothar:
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???




It just goes to show how quickly these storms can develop or intensify.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8170
Quoting Grothar:
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???





I'm not trying to brag, but I have been nothing less than totally consistent from the start with a forecast for rapid intensification near the coast. The environment was just too favorable, and I don't forecast rapid intensification on a regular basis. Seeing as though it has another 18-24 hours over water and appears to be developing an inner core, we haven't actually seen anything yet. I'm doing a blog right now, and I anticipate a 60 kt tropical storm at landfall tomorrow evening, but I would place the odds of Barbara reaching minimal hurricane status at 15%.

Now to be fair, I did kind of consider this morning that it might not develop into anything beyond a minimal tropical storm because it kept having organization issues, but I never surrendered the likelihood of development in my forecasts. It's kind of amazing how after all these years, some people still aren't patient with this stuff; the cyclogenesis process takes time.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You can keep the humidity and the mosquitoes, tyvm... it's remarkably cool here for the last week in May. Quite a different feel to the air from true hurricane / TS rain, which is hot water falling through hot air... And I expect as soon as this system is through here, the horrid humidity will begin...

I saw this picture ( Carmichael Road) on Tribune242 twitter page earlier today
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8170
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's no eye yet, but a warm spot has been evident in infrared and microwave images on a periodic basis.
Yes, and for some reason some insist on calling this an eye. I know an eye is trying to form there, that is the center of the storm, but is there an eye? No, not yet...hopefully TA was pointing out that that is where the eye will be, and not actually playing the iSpy the eye game.

It shouldn't really matter, it's a technicality, but when the "eye" becomes temporarily obscured (because it was never truly defined by a strong ring of thunderstorms previously) people say "where'd the eye go?". Some people do rely on this blog for their information, let's try and keep it at least somewhat accurate.
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MIL just contacted me, they just had quarter inch hail, no other damage that they know of around their home. They are older so unless water is pouring into the house or they hear something large hit the roof they won't go out and check until morning.
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Where are all the people who said this would never develop???



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Tornado warning expired. Not renewed so Amarillo is safe from tornado. However, widespread reports of hail more than 1.5 inches is coming in. Hails are still damaging!
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livestream says there were power flashes in SW Amarillo.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Come up north a little bit, that late winter and lingering cold so far has kept the bugs at bay, if not killed off some of them.



That's not good. Hope people are still watching the weather rather than taking that earlier "all clear" signal serious.
Also, congrats on your new job.


I just got back from Northern PA a few days ago. It was near 90 everyday.
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Quoting Grothar:
That should be right over Amarillo right now.


It's completely over Amarillo now. It's hailing pretty badly there, but tornado reports stop coming in.

Hail from Amarillo area few minutes ago...

Link
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That should be right over Amarillo right now.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.