TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Link
Blob alert. West Caribbean.


Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
WOW!

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
The GFS and the CMC both have a low affecting Florida in a little as 60 hours with the CMC taking it up the east coast of florida and then out to sea while the GFS has a much weaker low but never closes..the fact that the GFS has piggy back behind the CMC in seeing a possibility give the CMC some street cred..and then again both of them might drop it in the next run as thats how models do..





at the end of the CMC run-BOC
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Link
Blob alert. West Caribbean.
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Looks messy...but only light showers so far in Lake Worth...

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Good morning to all. Have the models dropped the BOC/Western Caribbean scenario as I don't see the 00z run posted?
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Barbara now has 65mph maximum surface winds, so still strengthening. I guess I could see this becoming a minimum hurricane before landfall if it uses its environment to the fullest.
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WOW look at that! in the Caribbean!!

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!! it is bad out it like a TS in WPB!!:)
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barbara has got her act together last night
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Im gonna crash...its after 2am here on the left coast. Hold down the fort!
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The one showing that roof gettin peeled off?
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Looks like her circulation will be crossing the smallest amount of land to try and reach the BOC...as the forecast track shows. Maybe the mid level circulation can make it over. Wait and see I guess.
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I found a good two hour documentary film on Hurricane Iniki, including the real footages of right before, during, and after the storm.

Link
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...COMPRISED OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION.
BANDING HAS INCREASED...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING
ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. MORE RECENTLY...A PARTIAL
EYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH THE EYEWALL BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RAISED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/04. BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
COAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER
CROSSING THE COAST...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF THE REMNANTS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL SHOW ONLY LIGHT SHEAR
OVER BARBARA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS AROUND 30C.
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A HARBINGER
OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THE LACK OF TIME
OVER WATER IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND WELL AS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BARBARA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOR THIS
REASON...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Barbara is now at 60 mph. Forecast to peak at 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of hurricane strength.
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Yes, it's looking quite well.
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Hurricane watch now issued.

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
0900 UTC WED MAY 29 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO
ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUERTO ANGEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN


NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone home?


I'm still up.

You can see the eyewall on the radar you posted.
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Is the 5am up yet?
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Anyone home?
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Ineresting
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Quoting Grothar:
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???





Developing quite nicely,it appears to me.
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T.C.F.W.
R.I.FLAG FLAG
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.45N/95.95W
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Impressive:

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771. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Additional Information on BOB02-2013
-------------------

Satellite based Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal north of 13.0N and from 82.0E to 94.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.

Scatterometry data indicates the cyclonic circulation over the region and associated wind speed to be about 25-30 knots. Wind speed is relatively higher in the southern sector. Khepupara reported a mean sea level pressure of 997.8 hPa with 24 hours pressure change of 3.2 hPa at 3:00 AM UTC/8:30 AM IST.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 23.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast. Hence system lies close to the ridge which favors northward movement. The low level convergence along with low relative vorticity has increased during the past 24 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 30C. The sea height anomaly is about 20-25 meters. However, the vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high. It is low to the northeast of the system. The MJO lays over phase 1 with negligible amplitude.. it is not favorable for intensification.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2013 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 14:42:53 N Lon : 95:30:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.4mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.3

Center Temp : -76.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.4 degrees
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
ATCF says that Barbara has winds of 50 knots and pressure of 997 mb.

EP, 02, 2013052906, , BEST, 0, 145N, 958W, 50, 997, TS,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Goodnight everybody yall be safe!
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N22W TO 05N40W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-10N BETWEEN 12W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 49W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF
NEAR 19N92W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED WEST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE SE GULF...PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SW NORTH ATLC...AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY SE
OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N89W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA KEYS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 33N74W TO 25N97W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FAR NW GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
70W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N
OF 17N AND W OF 80W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 87W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG
11N/12N. CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF
70W WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW
IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY
CONCENTRATED E OF 65W. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST AND
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTLY FLOW DOMINATES AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
REGION WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROVIDING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS OVER A SINGLE
LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N65W. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING HOWEVER...MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W.
BRIDGING THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N56W TO 30N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
DOMINATES A LARGE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF
THE AZORES NEAR 40N33W. LASTLY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SNAKES
ACROSS THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO
ALONG 31N TO 22W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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Quoting nigel20:
Good night friends!
Nite Nigel! im right behind ya!
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763. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
8:30 AM IST May 29 2013
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over northern Bay of Bengal near 21.0N 89.5E, or about 130 km south southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh, and 200 km southeast of Kolkata, India.

The system is likely to move northward and cross Bangladesh coast about 50 km west of Khepupara later this evening.

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Quoting nigel20:
Good night friends!


Good night, Nigel.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
It's been a pretty wet day for some areas in Hawaii. The upper-level low located northeast of Hawaii has been adding some instability there with increase in showers, with some of them being very heavy like on Oahu today. However, the low is expected to move away from the islands and more stable weather will return by tomorrow and Thursday.

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Good night friends!
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..BARBARA STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
11:00 PM PDT Tue May 28
Location: 14.5N 95.7W
Moving: NE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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I also made a blog update in the tropics.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS EVENING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Barbara up to 50 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...BARBARA STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Shouldn't there be a new update now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh come on.


OK, maybe 36 kts.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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