TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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849. beell
It's possible that the remains of Barbara, in combination with the tail of a front could provide the seed for a disturbance in the western gulf beginning next Monday. Provided there is at least something of a circulation left after Barbara crosses Mexico.

Wind shear over the BOC may be less than 30 knots. A little higher farther north.

All this timed with a trough over the southeast US to tap/pull the monsoonal moisture northeast. A longshot, maybe.



05/29 06Z GFS 850 mb Vorticity-Valid @ 120 hrs

GFS with an initial weak portrayal of an inverted trough over the western gulf.


05/29 03Z WPC Forecast Surface-Valid 12Z Monday

click any image to open in new window
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I know its been posted already but...

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 291025
TCUEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
325 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO...

AT 325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL
.

SUMMARY OF 0325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...15.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH/LANDSEA

Didnt see that coming
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Good Morning All..
A humid morning here..
77 degrees with 83%rh and dew at 72..
Scattered clouds with winds 12ENE..
I performed weekly maintenance yesterday on my inground pool and it liked to have wiped me out..
I am so not looking forward to this summers heat and humidity..
Pressure washing is next.. :(

Beach looking ok..
Surfs up a bit as usual when winds are from the East/South..
Yellow flags flying this am..



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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flooding at Park Vista High School in Boynton Beach this morning. The school has been closed for the day.


Let me guess, the driver of that car didn't think the water was deep enough to cause their car to drown? Silly silly Billy. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN YA GOOSE should be tattooed on his/her forehead.
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845. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Blob Alert!!!


yeap morning ill have to second that even tho gro hasnt made it oficial yet ! BLOB ALERT
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry I haven't been well these past few days so I've only been dropping in from time to time. I didn't read back. Sorry


Hope you get to feeling better Auz, no apologies neccessary was really just picking on Taz
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Quoting WDEmobmet:
Ahh i see what your asking now AUssie, good question... So if a storm maintains a name crossing basins do we skip that letter in our own list of names, or do we just have two "B" storm names??? Hmmmm


Exactly. Will we have 2 "B" named systems?
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Taz has touched on this about 100X times since TD 2 was declared, surprised you missed it

Sorry I haven't been well these past few days so I've only been dropping in from time to time. I didn't read back. Sorry
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Flooding at Park Vista High School in Boynton Beach this morning. The school has been closed for the day.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Aussie great post as usual and to answer your question if Barbara remains intact as it gets into the Gulf then it will retain Barbara.


YEea but would we then skip over Barry, otherwise we would have two B storm names
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Ahh i see what your asking now AUssie, good question... So if a storm maintains a name crossing basins do we skip that letter in our own list of names, or do we just have two "B" storm names??? Hmmmm
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Aussie great post as usual and to answer your question if Barbara remains intact as it gets into the Gulf then it will retain Barbara.


But will there also be a Barry in the ATL or will it be skipped due to Barbara?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Question: If Barbara makes it into the BOC intact and regenerates into a TS/HU will the NHC skip "B" (Barry) or still use Barry?


Hi Aussie great post as usual and to answer your question if Barbara remains intact as it gets into the Gulf then it will retain Barbara.
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by Friday it'll be a lovely 95 around these parts with very dangerous humidity levels...2012 vibes already..
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Question: If Barbara makes it into the BOC intact and regenerates into a TS/HU will the NHC skip "B" (Barry) or still use Barry?


Taz has touched on this about 100X times since TD 2 was declared, surprised you missed it
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone think Barbara could make it into the BOC intact?



It's going to be a close call.


Good Morning Aussie..
I'll go with it emerging into BOC but gets sheared to death..
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My new Forecast for Tropical Storm BARBARA
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Question: If Barbara makes it into the BOC intact and regenerates into a TS/HU will the NHC skip "B" (Barry) or still use Barry?
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What is this 20 questions? :)


Seriously though, does anyone have a link for historical satellite pics, i wanted to compare current moisutre levels to about a week ago. Looking for comparison to see the effects of an MJO
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NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami
#ParkVistaHigh has been closed due to flooding this morning in #PalmBeach County.
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Did anyone see this??

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 291025
TCUEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
325 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013


...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO...


AT 325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.


A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


SUMMARY OF 0325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...15.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH/LANDSEA
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Blob Alert!!!
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Does anyone think Barbara could make it into the BOC intact?



It's going to be a close call.
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I wouldnt think so, doesnt appear to have enough time left, however I also never thought it would obtain its current level of itensity. I was also curious to see how the dry air over mexico would treat Barb but looking at water vapor, it appears she has put up a fairly decent shield in front of her, either that or the MJO is helping out
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824. VR46L
Good Morning Folks


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very serious flooding likely from Melbourne down to Miami today. Some areas could see 12" plus of rain today.



and look what is en route...
Image from RAMMB

Loop embedded



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
Looks like Barbara is aiding in possibly spinning up a system in the NW Caribbean.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Blob Alert!!!




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Might be one of those illusions, but it looks as if Barbara is bouncing off the coast

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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Looks suprisingly good this AM Aussie


Does anyone think Barbra make it to minimal hurricane status?
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Blob Alert!!!

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Quoting AussieStorm:




Looks suprisingly good this AM Aussie
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All of this talk by the WPC Folks saying the GGEM was out to lunch with showing close to 20" rainfall amounts across parts of FL well looky here it's the only model to accurately show this set up across FL right now.

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Quoting islander101010:
barbara has got her act together last night


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Very serious flooding likely from Melbourne down to Miami today. Some areas could see 12" plus of rain today.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Precip so far today!!!!!:)4.48 inch!:) and the rain is coming down!:)


Lucky you! I only got .33 in yesterday
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Precip so far today!!!!!:)4.48 inch!:) and the rain is coming down!:)
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Here is the Tropical Weather Discussion at 8:05 AM EDT of the Caribbean Sea by NHC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
66W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW
OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED
ALONG 10N. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 71W-78W.
FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF 66W WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
AREAS EAST TO 50W. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW
IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY
TRADES PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-292130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
520 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
UNTIL 7 PM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF OVER 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY EAST WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET. OPERATORS OF
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN AMPLE MOISTURE WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING


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The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
eastern Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... West Palm Beach... Riviera Beach...
Lake Worth... Delray Beach... Boynton Beach... Boca Raton...

* until 900 am EDT

* at 702 am EDT... Doppler radar has indicated that 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall has fallen from the heavy showers that continue to spread
ashore across portions of Palm Beach County this morning. An
additional 1 to 2 inches through 900 am will remain possible
... especially from Boca Raton to just south of Juno Beach. Reports
from the local area of Boynton Beach and the acreage area indicate
a few flooded streets.
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Hurricane warnings are up...As I expected last night Barbara could reach hurricane hur intensity.
I talked about peaking at 75 mph but now I say 80 mph.

Rapid consolidation but running out of time and room
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I hope nogaps plays out here, as mexico and texas could use some rain...


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short life ahead for barbara...

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Good morning all.



Yikes! Did we say the storm was on the Pacific side???

I'm not sure we can say the MJO has a weak signal in the area right now...

It hasn't stopped raining here since about this time last night. It's just light rain now, but it's been heavy off and on all night. Winds were sustained as much as 20 mph at several points last night.

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Good Morning
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From the Miami NWS Disco...Just a teaser...Good read...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FROM THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES AND
CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OVER TWO INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE. GLOBAL MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AT MID
LEVELS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS.
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WRF Model drops shear over the West Caribbean to 10-15kts by Saturday. Could allow something to develop if we can get some organized convection to initiate down there.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Link
Blob alert. West Caribbean.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.