TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Ok this is my forecast cone for Barbara

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
11:00 AM WED MAY 29 Hurricane (Category 1) 15.7N 94.9W N 1 (1) -- 75 (65)
4 5:00 AM WED MAY 29 Tropical Storm Barbara 15.2N 95W NE 8 (7) 29.38 (995) 65 (56)
3 2:00 AM WED MAY 29 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.8N 95.6W NE 5 (4) 29.44 (997) 60 (52)
2A 11:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.5N 95.7W NE 3 (3) 29.53 (1000) 50 (43)
2 8:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.5N 95.7W NNE 3 (3) 29.56 (1001) 45 (39)
1A 5:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.2N 96W STNRY 0 (0) 29.65 (1004) 40 (35)
1 2:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Depression Two-e 14.2N 96.5W N 2 (2) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)

This shows Hurricane strength within 2 hours.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Really surprised how quickly Barbara has been able to spin up and near hurricane strength this am.....I still think it might have something to do with that "curve" coastal pocket she is in that is helping the circulation consolidate....It has been getting better and better the closer she has moved towards the coast starting yesterday.
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New model from NHC shows hurricane strength before landfall.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
It appears that the high pressure ridge that parks over east Texas evey summer seems to be extending into the GoM a bit further than usual. Anyone see this breaking down soon? It helps steer these storms away from us.
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Re: #862 "reflectivity" image -- Just look at that solid mass of clouds evaporating as they get about halfway across the peninsula. Heartbreaking for us in SW Florida. It's been the story at least here in Southeast Cape Coral for days - a "shower curtain" in place, killing the rain and thunderstorms as they approach. Heaven help us that we get some rain today at last....
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WTPZ32 KNHC 291159
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 95.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO
ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA
.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED 500 AM PDT
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A NORTHEAST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Jet Stream Analysis..







SST..GFS





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The fact that Barbara is stronger now means it has an even lower chance of surviving the crossing into the Bay of Campeche. Tropical cyclones in general don't have a good friendship with mountainous terrain, but this is especially true for hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

That sounds like they'll just issue Hurricane Warnings to be safe. I don't see 75 MPH. 65 MPH is probably all she will attain. TCHP's drop off dramatically as she approaches the swallower shelf.


She is at 65mph right now, and hurricane warnings are in effect now.


Hurricane winds do exist in the center of barbara now.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
NNNN

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And a ULL Tutt cell draping down from the tip of Cuba that is probably enhancing the baroclinic convective burst:

Link

It will probably diminish over the next several hours; I would be surprised if it were still in this shape by this evening.


Not to mention Shear..

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Really high CAPE for so early in the morning across C FL.


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Good morning everybody! Today is going to be a very active day for significant weather.

Barbara is likely going to become a hurricane today before making landfall in Mexico.


Large damaging hail seems very likely again today in the central plains as well as a tornado threat. Some tornadoes could be strong and long tracked.

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Quoting stribe37:


The NHC isn't so sure:

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

---
RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
----

Any chance if this thing gets into the Gulf it will re-form into a Tropical Storm, presuming it dies off to a Depression by the time it reaches there?


Theres a chance it's remnants will become Andrea.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
883. MahFL
Sadly no one on the SW MX beaches will get the warnings and people will drown.
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Kudos to the GGEM as this is the only model that accurately portrayed this set up across FL. WPC may want to re-asses their precip maps for FL.


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Also, no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And a ULL Tutt cell draping down from the tip of Cuba that is probably enhancing the baroclinic convective burst:

Link

It will probably diminish over the next several hours; I would be surprised if it were still in this shape by this evening.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Doesn't look like it will happen.


The NHC isn't so sure:

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

---
RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
----

Any chance if this thing gets into the Gulf it will re-form into a Tropical Storm, presuming it dies off to a Depression by the time it reaches there?
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northeast 5%
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no real relief in sight

4.68 in --- May
26.48 in -- For year total

Going to be a long hot and dry summer if things dont change fast
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Today is last chance to see Barbara make a run at Hurricaine status..
Intensity chart is between now and approx. 12hrs..
Thats all..



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Good Morning. Interesting looking blob has emerged in the NW Caribbean just off the coast of Honduras. Looks impressive but is has a big flow of wind sheer moving across it from the West in the 30 knot range:

Link

The rainbow and WV loops show a big convective complex but we should get a better view of the effect of sheer in a few hours on the visible loops as the sun comes up over there in earnest.........That should tell the story.
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15% tornado risk today per latest convective outlook. I got to go, by everyone.
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872. MahFL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Barbara is aiding in possibly spinning up a system in the NW Caribbean">


30 kts of screaming shear would say NO.
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Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Video from CBS 12's Eric Roby on the scene at Park Vista High School.
Link
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Seems to be hovering around 55 knots.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
If anything endures from Barbara..
It will land in here..

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well looks like Barbara is E of ever forecast plot so far maybe they need to out TS warning and Hurricanes Warning further S and E
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting pcola57:


Hey WDE..
Absolutely, positively, nothing here..
Having to keep the sprinklers on already..
Was reading Treasure Island yesterday and I felt as if I were there amongst the tropics of Spyglass Hill and Skeleton Island..
I bet I lost ..oh..3 lbs yesterday..
Pure sweat..
The little hit and miss showers make for little relief.. :)


HaHa, hopefully we can get some relief soonest
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lots of rain out there
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Miami, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

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Not to bad now but big rain coming!
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Just did a quick blog update on TS Barbara.

Damage surveys start today to determine the EF rating of the tornadoes in Michigan yesterday.
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BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
5:00 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.2°N 95.0°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph wow 65 mph
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Quoting WDEmobmet:
Morning PCola,

Found myself watching drizzles in the yard yesterday afternoon for the first time in what seemed like months


Hey WDE..
Absolutely, positively, nothing here..
Having to keep the sprinklers on already..
Was reading Treasure Island yesterday and I felt as if I were there amongst the tropics of Spyglass Hill and Skeleton Island..
I bet I lost ..oh..3 lbs yesterday..
Pure sweat..
The little hit and miss showers make for little relief.. :)
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Blob Alert!!!



Hey, only the resident certified blobologist can call it a blob, lol.
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Interesting read.

Weather Satellite Outage Points to Larger Problems
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Not me lol
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Hope that's not your car left in park with the lights on, South Florida Weatherman!
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...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
5:00 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.2°N 95.0°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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Morning PCola,

Found myself watching drizzles in the yard yesterday afternoon for the first time in what seemed like months
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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