TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Ask your questions about hurricane forecasting and preparedness in a May 30 Tweet Chat with NOAA National Hurricane Center experts!

Excerpt:

Just ahead of the start of Atlantic hurricane season (June 1), NOAA National Hurricane Center Branch Chief James Franklin and hurricane forecaster Robbie Berg, will answer your questions about tracking and forecasting of these potentially damaging storms and how best to be prepared.
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Quoting KeysieLife:


Clearly...


Hahahaha
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Quoting stormchaser19:
In the wind shear anomaly clearly you see the vorticity of the storm, clearly the storm will intensify, with the shear anomaly well below normal in front her...Note: Of COURSE in the hypothetical case!!!!


Clearly...
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No surprise, TD-2E at 5pm EDT.
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invest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.ren 28-May-2013 18:26 2.4K
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Dvorak Analysis says is a TD or TS:



TXPZ23 KNES 281802
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 28/1745Z

C. 14.2N

D. 96.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS AGAIN RELOCATED...THIS TIME SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH. BANDING MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 2.0 BUT THE CLOUD FEATURES WERE
NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 2.0 WHILE PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK


TAFB is at 2.0

EP 92 201305281745 10 DVTS CI 1390N 9600W 30 2 TAFB 2020 /////
EP 92 201305281745 10 DVTS CI 1420N 9630W 35 2 SAB 2525 /////
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In the wind shear anomaly clearly you see the vorticity of the storm, clearly the storm will intensify, with the shear anomaly well below normal in front her...Note: Of COURSE in the hypothetical case!!!!

East Caribbean Storm!!!!
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Quoting KeysieLife:


But you have to remember, everything is "unprecedented" this year...apparently that includes model forecasting.


I will keep that in mind ! Still would be in absolute shock if 3 storms are named in the Atlantic by the 7th of June ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
Dvorak Analysis says is a TD or TS:



TXPZ23 KNES 281802
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 28/1745Z

C. 14.2N

D. 96.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS AGAIN RELOCATED...THIS TIME SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH. BANDING MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 2.0 BUT THE CLOUD FEATURES WERE
NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 2.0 WHILE PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Quoting VR46L:


Looks to me like the CMC has lost the run of itself .. Don't eat me folks! 3 storms in that timeframe just don't make sense at this time of year .Just My Opinion !


But you have to remember, everything is "unprecedented" this year...apparently that includes model forecasting.
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Quoting VR46L:


Looks to me like the CMC has lost the run of itself .. Don't eat me folks! 3 storms in that timeframe just don't make sense at this time of year .Just My Opinion !
Really unlikely but not impossible.
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72 hours

96 hours
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Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC is showing a possible TD in East Caribbean...Hahahaha


Looks to me like the CMC has lost the run of itself .. Don't eat me folks! 3 storms in that timeframe just don't make sense at this time of year .Just My Opinion !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
12z Euro running
48 hours
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Nassau Weather Live
Residents throughout the archipelago should brace themselves for excessively prolonged rainfall throughout the day (Tuesday) and lasting through Friday night.

A broad area of moist unstable air extending southwest to northeast from the Caribbean Sea will generate heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across the entire archipelago. Conditions will be favourable for flash flood warning in low-lying areas.

Winds are expected to reach 30 miles per hour or more in embedded thunderstorms. Tornadoes are likely to be spawned from the thunderstorms.

A severe thunder storm watch or warning with the possibility of tornadoes will be issued when it is indicated by the weather radar or sighted by spotters.

The Department of Meteorology is appealing to residents in flood prone areas to be prepared to evacuate at a moment’s notice. Residents are advised not to drive, walk or play in flood waters as the depth can easily be misjudged. All efforts should be made to protect lives and property.

All advice and notifications by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) should be heeded.

28/05/2013 at 11:15 am
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its heating up

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CMC is showing a possible TD in East Caribbean...Haha
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The Gfs is portraying the supposedly system we are getting in the Atlantic as big as the invest we have in the Eastern Pacific.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TD forming.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.


yep
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
I still like the ECMWF over the CMC or GFS. But The GFS did prove itself last year with Debby , one of the few times it had it before the ECMWF. If the ECMWF shows what the GFS shows I'd take more notice.
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TD forming.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

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Quoting hydrus:
I was thinking they were. Maybe not dead center, but close enough....must have been a incredible experience.

like i said, crazy! they were very close
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Quoting ncstorm:


its the toilet bowl for the GOM..


Remember that one storm that just spun out and spun out for a week in the BOC? I forget his name already.
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Wave developing below high shear and a TUTT to the north. GEM CRAZY!
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
"Here ya go!!"
Sigh...Everyone's a comedian... (LOL)



WHAT ARE YOU SAYING!?
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Strong wave in both models but GEM likes it more than the GFS
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"Here ya go!!"
Sigh...Everyone's a comedian... (LOL)


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boy, that was a doozy on that 12z CMC run..Im waiting to see what the WPC model diagnostic discussion will say..holy smokes if that scenario played out!

here is the other website for the CMC with all the pretty red..and a 993 mb pressure..thats a hurricane..LOL
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and then it creates ANOTHER one but this as a weak low..someone throw florida a life jacket..






and the last frame..in atlantic approaching the islands
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Quoting ncstorm:
well folks..the CMC..WOW

72 hours












So many lows on the first frame. xD
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203




Band of upper level Westerlies still 'screaming' over the GOM.
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it continues and develops another one..Florida, GA, SC, and NC..my word!!!







996 mb
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Reminds me somewhat of Tropical Storm Debby from last year.


That's what I was thinking too, look at the way the GFS is handling this system -- it's causing it to become elongated and extra-tropical before it reaches the Florida cost just like it did with Debby.
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well folks..the CMC..WOW

72 hours









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How long will high wind shear be dominant in GOM? The low is almost stationary. It may be a while before it crosses into GOM. Pressures are low in GOM. If it does by chance become a tropical storm and hits W FL. will it be the first trans-basin to strike CONUS this early in the season?
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Thanks for the new blog Doc. We will see how this year's Atlantic Season™ will unfold
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That Sean Casey tornado video is amazing!!!.WOW!
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Quoting Chicklit:

Looked like they were in the nado. crazy
I was thinking they were. Maybe not dead center, but close enough....must have been a incredible experience.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS ensembles have been persist with anything that develops being very large and broad. It'd be a big rainmaker with relatively low wind impact. The ensemble mean is also consistent with anything that develops tracking northward towards the west coast of Florida.

Large, I believe, because of the two areas of low pressure that are relatively close to each other. Weak, the fight for dominance will keep strengthening at bay for a while.
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Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc. intense video from T.I.V.2

Looked like they were in the nado. crazy
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Quoting mikatnight:


While you're at it, check out the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide's page on Wind.
Do you know how much stronger an 80 mph wind is over a 40 mph wind?
Do you know how much more damage can be expected by a mere 5 mph increase in wind speed, from 75 mph to 80 mph?



Link to Patrap's Hurricane Preparation 2013 as well...


Well, wind force = wind speed squared... so...
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2864
Quoting Patrap:
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos : Day 3 — Wind


While you're at it, check out the Hurricane Protocol 2013 hurricane guide's page on Wind.
Do you know how much stronger an 80 mph wind is over a 40 mph wind?
Do you know how much more damage can be expected by a mere 5 mph increase in wind speed, from 75 mph to 80 mph?



Link to Patrap's Hurricane Preparation 2013 as well...
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the 12z CMC is currently running

as little as 60 hours a low is developing off the east coast of Florida..will see what this creates..00z run showed a lot of precip instead of the Low

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS ensembles have been persist with anything that develops being very large and broad. It'd be a big rainmaker with relatively low wind impact. The ensemble mean is also consistent with anything that develops tracking northward towards the west coast of Florida.



Could be a TS. Isaac was very broad as a TS.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2864
I still can't believe Sean Casey and his crew got out of that tornado with the door open. Insane.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good morning to all from america's left coast


Its noon here in the midwest. I'm eating my lunch right now.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2864

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.