TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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ASCAT for the general area of 92e

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02E:

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92E or 02E is looking much better than it did this morning!
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Quoting psetas23:


i do too it does look like it will be fun like in 04 just hope no charley because i have a feeling this time it wont miss tampa


Trust me. 2004 was no fun at all. I only hope that any storm would have 'minimal' impact anywhere on the mainland.
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It looks like my neighbor to the South (Baltimore) got a little shaken up today... A family member of mine works in that area so it'll be interesting to hear his story of what he saw.

And I also see that Barbara will most likely come together today. Busy day
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Satellite presentation shows a consolidating depression with the outlines of developing banding features...NHC could go to TS if their observations/calculations support TS wind speeds.

thats what I'm sayin
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Quoting Klolly23:

I'm an amateur at meteorology so go easy. Does the ITCZ physically lift north in the summer months or is it the earths natural tilt that gives the illusion that the ITCZ lifts north?TIA




The ITCZ is a band of convergence resulting from trade wind patterns that fluctuate based on the earth's differential heating beween n.Hem summer/winter patterns and the converse for the s.Hem.

The move North during N.Hem. Summer is related to the angle of the sun changing...(and the increased insolation for the Northern Latitudes...)
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Quoting tropicalnewbee:
Soo.... It really does seem FL is under the gun this year don't it? I live in East Central FL about 1.5 miles from the coast so if any of that pans out we are gonna have some fun!!!


i do too it does look like it will be fun like in 04 just hope no charley because i have a feeling this time it wont miss tampa
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I'm surprised nobody mentioned this yet, but we could be dealing with a significant severe weather/tornado outbreak tomorrow into Thursday.

Day 2 Moderate Risk


Day 3 Slight Risk
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141. VR46L
Quoting Klolly23:

I'm an amateur at meteorology so go easy. Does the ITCZ physically lift north in the summer months or is it the earths natural tilt that gives the illusion that the ITCZ lifts north?TIA


So am I !LOL

I honestly dont know all I know is that it is further North in the summer .Sorry I can't be more help
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Satellite presentation shows a consolidating depression with the outlines of developing banding features...NHC could go to TS if their observations/calculations support TS wind speeds.
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139. VR46L
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
which means the navy considers it a TD unless NHC updates it to TS at 5pm


Yes . But I would be surprised if its a TS by then judging the stats

Stats from Tropical East Pacific

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, May 28, 2013 18:00 Z

Location at the time:
175 statue miles (281 km) to the SSW (210°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, México.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
30 knots (~35 mph | 15 m/s | 56 km/h)

Pressure:
1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)

Coordinates:
14.0N 96.5W
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I believe "TD2E" will make landfall most of its energy gets transferred to the Gulf of Honduras/Caribbean and the rest of the remnants in the BOC Atlantic basin storm will form in the caribbean move towards Cuba and Florida and the rest in the BOC will mount to only surface trough
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Could be designated within twelve hours.

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From my ATCF page (under development), it looks like a tropical depression upgrade, though there are still 90 minutes before the first advisory during which the NHC could upgrade it again to a TS.

As of 18:26 UTC May 28, Invest 92E has been upgraded to Unknown Storm 02E

Unknown Storm TWO
As of 18:00 UTC May 28, 2013:

Location: 14.0°N 96.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
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Quoting VR46L:


Yep The ITCZ has to migrate a bit before a wave can make a real impact in the cane season ...Again Just my opinion .

I'm an amateur at meteorology so go easy. Does the ITCZ physically lift north in the summer months or is it the earths natural tilt that gives the illusion that the ITCZ lifts north?TIA
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Quoting VR46L:


The Navy is upgrading its status

02E.TWO
which means the navy considers it a TD unless NHC updates it to TS at 5pm
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2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific


green ball91E.INVEST


green ball02E.TWO



Central Pacific



West Pacific



Indian Ocean


green ball95A.INVEST


green ball94B.INVEST



Southern Hemisphere
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131. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Thats their opinion. The NHC still has it marked.


The Navy is upgrading its status

02E.TWO

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T.C.F.W.
02E/TD/B/CX
MARK
14.11N/96.8W
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
look like a tropical d to me.

starting to look more like TS
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The Navy site has removed 92e and updated; no longer an invest.

Link


Thats their opinion. The NHC still has it marked.
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so are the models trending more towards a BOC storm- drifting towards Florida?
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look like a tropical d to me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just watched the video of TIV2 intercepting the violent tornado in north-central Kansas last night. The crew measured peak winds of 175 mph (mid-grade EF4) before the tornado ripped the instrument off their vehicle. Apparently the doors weren't latched closed correctly, so they ripped open and debris was blown into the TIV. The crew is lucky this tornado hadn't hit anything significant...pieces of wood from houses moving at 175 mph+ would probably do some damage.

But anyways, definitely the best video of a tornado intercept I've ever seen.

Would this be the first video inside an EF-4? Pretty crazy. Probably wont be officially an EF-4 because the NWS will be doubtful of these measurements, but based off the radar velocities, NROT and measured 175MPH winds, this was likely at least an EF-4.. Wish they had a barometer on there too, curious how low pressures got.
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02E/TD/B/CX

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last frame on the Euro

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The Navy site has removed 92e and updated; no longer an invest.

Link
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Soo.... It really does seem FL is under the gun this year don't it? I live in East Central FL about 1.5 miles from the coast so if any of that pans out we are gonna have some fun!!!
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216 hours


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now we got 2nd tropical system going in EPac so when will we get the advisory
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Quoting VR46L:


Yep The ITCZ has to migrate a bit before a wave can make a real impact in the cane season ...Again Just my opinion .



:)

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Round one wasn't much.

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Marysville, KS tornado is EF2, but survey still ongoing. Cora tornado (the one Sean Casey intercepted in the video) is still unrated. I can't find the information about that tornado anywhere.
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113. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
too early to call everyone aboard the wave train??



Yep The ITCZ has to migrate a bit before a wave can make a real impact in the cane season ...Again Just my opinion .

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168 hours


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00
AGXX40 KNHC 281835
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

BY LATE WED...FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE MORE WITH THE ECMWF AND
UKMET DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN
...WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. THESE LATTER MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING
THIS LOW AND CARRYING SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI...WITH
THE GFS AGAIN SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ON THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED E
PACIFIC SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO BE VALID HERE.
MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...LONG-FETCH FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS NEAR 8 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH SUN. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED
WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. MWW3 WAVE USED WITH HAND EDITS/CAPPING
OF THE WAVE HEIGHTS CLOSER TO EC WAVE GUIDANCE.

BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ACROSS THE W CENTRAL/SW PORTION
OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN. COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N W OF 72W. WINDS
ARE MAINLY 20-25 KT NEAR THE TROUGHING...WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NW TO
ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS TAKES THE
TROUGH INTO THE E GULF ACROSS FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
INDICATES A MORE ILL-DEFINED AND WEAKER TROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM DAY 3-5. IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WILL CORRESPONDING
SEAS...WHILE THE GFS AND WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGER/HIGHER.
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Hey Hydrus is that
Pacman????
105 last image.
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109. VR46L
Quoting allancalderini:
Might be two ts and 1 td you never know ;)


We will see!
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too early to call everyone aboard the wave train??

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Not sure that the same BOC phenomenon applies (with the circular terrain aiding with spin up) but 92e is near a similar geographic "curve" so to speak....I am thinking that this may have aided with some of the consolidation of the coc prior to landfall.
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Quoting VR46L:


I will keep that in mind ! Still would be in absolute shock if 3 storms are named in the Atlantic by the 7th of June ...
Might be two ts and 1 td you never know ;)
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104. VR46L
Quoting Carnoustie:


I predict zero names storms by the 7th June.


Whispering ...so do I!
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Quoting VR46L:


I will keep that in mind ! Still would be in absolute shock if 3 storms are named in the Atlantic by the 7th of June ...


I predict zero names storms by the 7th June.
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Remember, everything is unprecedented until it happens.



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Figured they would once the satellite intensity estimates came in. Circulation is still poorly defined, but its proximity to land likely played a part in classification.
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Ask your questions about hurricane forecasting and preparedness in a May 30 Tweet Chat with NOAA National Hurricane Center experts!

Excerpt:

Just ahead of the start of Atlantic hurricane season (June 1), NOAA National Hurricane Center Branch Chief James Franklin and hurricane forecaster Robbie Berg, will answer your questions about tracking and forecasting of these potentially damaging storms and how best to be prepared.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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