TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

Share this Blog
43
+

Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 200 - 150

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

tropical depression she is
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. THEREFORE...
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BEST
GUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELS
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELD
AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.2N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.9N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 17.6N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 18.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
We have TD 2E!

620
WTPZ22 KNHC 282031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
2100 UTC TUE MAY 28 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE
PIJIJIAPAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 96.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.6N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.6N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi what has caused the sudden cooling in the MDR?


I guess the cloudiness blocking the sun may be a cause but there may be other factors involved.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14020
Rain coming!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Hey guys I just came on to check on Grothar.I heard last time that he was hit by one the recent tornadoes.Is he okay? .I'm just very worried.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon friends!


Good afternoon nigel. How are things weatherwise in Jamaica?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14020


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting hurricanes2018:
UP TO 20% AT 2PM
The National Hurricane Center only issues Tropical Weather Outlooks at 11 and 5 local times. Therefore, we have to wait until 8pm EDT/5pm PDT for the next outlook on Invest 91E.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon friends!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7853
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
From my ATCF page (under development), it looks like a tropical depression upgrade, though there are still 90 minutes before the first advisory during which the NHC could upgrade it again to a TS.

As of 18:26 UTC May 28, Invest 92E has been upgraded to Unknown Storm 02E

Unknown Storm TWO
As of 18:00 UTC May 28, 2013:

Location: 14.0°N 96.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
Levi what has caused the sudden cooling in the MDR?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think that we indeed have Tropical Storm Barbara in the EPAC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I guess there's no recon scheduled to fly into it?


No recon is scheduled for today at this time.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
This is probably a tropical storm. It received T2.5 a couple hours ago and organization has only improved since then, and with the close proximity to land it would probably be wise for the NHC to initiate advisories as a TS.



I guess there's no recon scheduled to fly into it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282008Z - 282215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SVR STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN CB
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS
REVEAL CINH REMAINS BUT CONTINUED STRONG HEATING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LIKELY ELIMINATE CINH SOON. THERE IS SOME DISSOCIATION
BETWEEN THE BEST SHEAR /ACROSS SE WY...NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR SW
SD/ AND BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS WRN KS/...LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO
THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH AROUND 30 KT/
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND...GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY THREATS
ARE SVR WINDS AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/28/2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


You could be right. Satellite intensity estimates were T2.5/35 knots.
we will all know in 45 mins or so
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
UP TO 20% AT 2PM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And because no one posted yet...



SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92E

Rainbow Loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I believe NHC will be going with tropical storm at five and tropical storm warnings will be issued at that time for affected region/regions


You could be right. Satellite intensity estimates were T2.5/35 knots.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD INCLUDING THE DC-BALTIMORE METRO AREAS
TO PARTS ERN SHORE OF MD


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282001Z - 282230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN VA INTO MD INCLUDING THE DC-BALTIMORE METRO
AREAS TO PARTS OF MD/S EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF STRONGER-SVR STORMS...AND THUS PRECLUDES 1/ AN UPGRADE
TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AND 2/ THE NEED FOR SVR WEATHER WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING N-S ACROSS FAR ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA...AND THEN DRAPED
ESEWD THROUGH THE WV PANHANDLE /N OF PETERSBURG/ TO FAR NRN VA AND
BETWEEN KIAD-KBWI. DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING S OF THE WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING BREACHED PER
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AT IAD/RNK...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
TEMPERING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW STORMS HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN
VA...WHILE A SHORT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH
SWRN PA. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL MCV.

SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED GREATER STORM COVERAGE WITH
ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH NERN VA/MD TO THE MD ERN
SHORE BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THUS FAR AND WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING GIVEN BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES WOULD SUGGEST ANY
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST. IN ADDITION...WEAK BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION
AND THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER SVR WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DIURNAL TSTMS...GIVEN STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/28/2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I believe NHC will be going with tropical storm at five and tropical storm warnings will be issued at that time for affected region/regions
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
epac system is a slow mover if it moves onshore very heavy rains
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4335
92E

RGB Loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from 11am outlook as per the NHC

AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Doppler22:
It looks like my neighbor to the South (Baltimore) got a little shaken up today... A family member of mine works in that area so it'll be interesting to hear his story of what he saw.

And I also see that Barbara will most likely come together today. Busy day


Shaken as in Earthquake?? Go here, nothing shown. MGS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanes2018:
what happern if invest 93E go to the Atlantic will it get a new name or keep the same name!!


Atlantic/Pacific crossover storms are given new names when they cross from one basin to the next. If 92e becomes named storm Barbara in the Pacific and then crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, it would become named storm Andrea if it is a tropical storm or hurricane at that point. If it emerged as an invest in the gulf it would be noted as such and then be named Andrea when it picked up tropical storm properties.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanes2018:
what happern if invest 93E go to the Atlantic will it get a new name or keep the same name!!


National Hurricane Operations Plan

See section 3.3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


lookin good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
invest 91E LOOKING BETTER TO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all. Severe weather and extensive flooding are being expected in the NW Bahamas over the next 12 - 36 hours. I'm looking for a couple of reports online. Then I'm headed home.

I found this at one site about last week's flooding:


Bahamas Meteorological Department Reports on Overnight Rainfall
By Bahamas Department of Meteorology
May 22, 2013 - 9:11:56 AM

Email this article
Printer friendly page
rainfall.jpg
Nassau is heading up to a partly cloudy day and will be a warm 84°F or 29°C this afternoon. The maximum temperature yesterday was 84°F or 29.4°C. The low temperature tonight will be 72°F or 22°C. The minimum temperature last night was 68°F or 20.0°C. The winds are presently from the SE at 05 KTS. The mean daily min for May is 70.9°F and the mean daily max for May is 85.8°F......

Here are the rainfall totals:
Lynden Plindling International Airport (LPIA)

Average for the month of May: 4.54 inches

24 hour Rainfall for LPIA: 4.35 inches(8am Tuesday 21st. to 8am Wednesday 22nd.)

Record Rainfall for May at LPIA: 5.74 inches.

Around the island 24 hr totals:

Elizabeth Estates Police Station: 12.79 inches
Camperdown: 15.29 inches
Fox Hill: 15.00 inches
Stapleton Gardens: 3.16 inches
LPIA: 4.35 inches


Damn! It feels like we've gotten 4+ inches today so far alone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Thats their opinion. The NHC still has it marked.


Incorrect. 92E has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 2E per the ATCF site. And the Navy's "opinion" should be treated as factual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Klolly23:

I'm an amateur at meteorology so go easy. Does the ITCZ physically lift north in the summer months or is it the earths natural tilt that gives the illusion that the ITCZ lifts north?TIA
Physically lifts north...Earth's tilt allows it to lift north by giving us seasons. Different seasons (really the position of the sun) dictate the mean position of the ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what happern if invest 93E go to the Atlantic will it get a new name or keep the same name!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


So am I. Today is expected to be active, as well, although Wednesday is expected to be the most active. Surprised there's nothing eventful, as yet, even if it is a bit early in the day. Kansas has a Torcon warning of 7 for tomorrow.


Yes. It looks like the daytime heating is taking place. A large area now part of a mesoscale discussion across four states in that area:


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0837.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon all. Severe weather and extensive flooding are being expected in the NW Bahamas over the next 12 - 36 hours. I'm looking for a couple of reports online. Then I'm headed home.

I found this at one site about last week's flooding:


Bahamas Meteorological Department Reports on Overnight Rainfall
By Bahamas Department of Meteorology
May 22, 2013 - 9:11:56 AM

Email this article
Printer friendly page
rainfall.jpg
Nassau is heading up to a partly cloudy day and will be a warm 84°F or 29°C this afternoon. The maximum temperature yesterday was 84°F or 29.4°C. The low temperature tonight will be 72°F or 22°C. The minimum temperature last night was 68°F or 20.0°C. The winds are presently from the SE at 05 KTS. The mean daily min for May is 70.9°F and the mean daily max for May is 85.8°F......

Here are the rainfall totals:
Lynden Plindling International Airport (LPIA)

Average for the month of May: 4.54 inches

24 hour Rainfall for LPIA: 4.35 inches(8am Tuesday 21st. to 8am Wednesday 22nd.)

Record Rainfall for May at LPIA: 5.74 inches.

Around the island 24 hr totals:

Elizabeth Estates Police Station: 12.79 inches
Camperdown: 15.29 inches
Fox Hill: 15.00 inches
Stapleton Gardens: 3.16 inches
LPIA: 4.35 inches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting calkevin77:
ASCAT for the general area of 92e



The most recent passes are from the wee hours of the morning, such as this one. It's quite likely that the circulation looks much better than that now.

This is really no surprise. Last night, some of us mentioned the low level structure looking pretty good, just void of convection. Well, just as expected, the convection fired right back up throughout the night and now we should have a tropical cyclone at the update. My forecast for this system was a moderate strength TS with the possibility of it reaching 70mph. We'll see.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Forbes updated numbers

Wednesday, May 29

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak likely in SD, NE, KS, west and central OK, northwest MO, IA, central and south MN, central and southwest WI, extreme northwest IL, east TX panhandle, west TX near Wichita Falls, Mineral Wells, Abilene, San Angelo, Del Rio. TOR:CON - 6 west OK; 6 central KS and south-central NE.

Isolated severe thunderstorms in southeast MI, NY, VT, NH, MA, CT, north and east PA, north NJ, northeast OH. TOR:CON - 2 to 3.

TOR:CON details:
CT - 2 to 3
IA - 3
IL extreme northwest - 2 to 3
KS central - 6
KS west - 5 to 6
KS east - 4 to 5
MA - 2 to 3
MI southeast - 2 to 3
MN central, south - 3
MO northwest - 4
NE west - 2 to 3
NE east - 4 to 5
NE south-central - 6
NH - 2 to 3
NJ north - 2 to 3
NY - 2 to 3
OK west - 6
OK central - 5
PA north, east - 2 to 3
SD west, central - 2 to 3
SD east - 3 to 4
TX east panhandle - 5 to 6
TX near Wichita Falls, Mineral Wells, Abilene, San Angelo, Del Rio - 2 to 3
VT - 2 to 3
WI central, southwest - 3
Thursday, May 30

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak likely in east ND, MN, WI, western upper MI, IA,
southeast SD, east NE, central and east KS, OK excluding panhandle, northwest AR, MO excluding
bootheel, west-central and north IL. TOR:CON - 6 north-central OK, southeast KS; 4 north MO,
south IA; 4 southeast MN, west WI

TOR:CON details:

AR northwest - 5
IA south - 4
IA north - 3
IL north, west-central - 3 to 4
KS central - 5 to 6
KS east - 6
MI western upper peninsula - 3 to 4
MN - 3 to 4
MN central, east - 3 to 4
MO south - 4 to 5
MO north - 4
ND east - 3
NE east - 3
OK central, northeast - 6
OK southeast - 5
SD extreme southeast - 3
WI west - 4
WI east - 3 to 4
other areas - less than 2
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14474
Tornado Watch 233

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS NEWD ACROSS SRN IA. OTHER STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF
MO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS WELL. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
MODULATED BY MATURE STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE VORTICITY IS ENHANCED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Another view which shows the circulation cells outside the ITCZ areal extent...


Link with a lot more info on positioning of the ITCZ axis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
I'm surprised nobody mentioned this yet, but we could be dealing with a significant severe weather/tornado outbreak tomorrow into Thursday.


So am I. Today is expected to be active, as well, although Wednesday is expected to be the most active. Surprised there's nothing eventful, as yet, even if it is a bit early in the day. Kansas has a Torcon warning of 7 for tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ASCAT for the general area of 92e

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 200 - 150

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.