TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Gearsts:
And the GEM develops this?
All I see is a sheared system.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Topeka-Alma
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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The PDS tornado in Nemaha County, KS has a very nice structure.





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Quoting VR46L:


I would say there is a good chance as a Depression , but maybe post tropical at that stage .

Agreed.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
245. VR46L
Quoting Gearsts:
GFS kills it over land but it keeps low pressure in the gulf and develops a new system.

I know its the GFDL but its an interesting solution

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Violent tornado signature west of Corning, Kansas. Large and extremely dangerous tornado on the ground.

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Confirmed, violent tornado is on the ground in Kansas!
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There is nothing "new" about the process when a cyclone moves from one basin to another. It was first introduced in the 2002 version of the National Hurricane Operations Plan
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241. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new naming process states that a tropical cyclone entering one basin from another will keep its original name. Only if the system first dissipates but remains distinguishable and subsequently redevelops will it receive a new name. For example, if "Barbara" moves into the Bay of Campeche, it will still be known as Tropical Storm Barbara as opposed to Tropical Storm Andrea. If "Barbara" dissipates over the mountains of Mexico but remains distinguishable and then moves into the Bay of Campeche and redevelops, it will be known as Tropical Storm Andrea.


Not sure if I agree with this new naming system because it could potentially screw up the naming process across the basins. For example the first three names of this season could potentially be:

Barbara
Andrea
Barry
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PDS TORNADO WARNING FOR NEMAHA COUNTY, KS!

892
WFUS53 KTOP 282118
TORTOP
KSC131-282200-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0010.130528T2118Z-130528T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 415 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CORNING...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. THE TORNADO WAS
REPORTED 3 MILES WEST OF CORNING AT 416 PM.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT
TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORNING AND GOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9589 3957 9598 3961 9612 3975 9612
3981 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 276DEG 10KT 3965 9608

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...4.25IN

$$

LEIGHTON
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And the GEM develops this?
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Nice hook trying to form on the Kansas tornado.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
02E/TD/XX/CX
MARK
14.11N/96.8W


That is one messy looking storm right now.
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Quoting VR46L:


I would say there is a good chance as a Depression , but maybe post tropical at that stage .
GFS kills it over land but it keeps low pressure in the gulf and develops a new system.
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i doubt it will make it moving so slow the forecast might change
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Quoting Civicane49:


GFDL seems a little over enthusiastic. One might say that it needs to curb its enthusiasm.
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Quoting Doppler22:
So how many people think Barbara will make it into the Atlantic (BOC)?


I won't say it is impossible, but the odds don't favor it.

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
230. VR46L
Quoting Doppler22:
So how many people think Barbara will make it into the Atlantic (BOC)?


I would say there is a good chance as a Depression , but maybe post tropical at that stage .
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Now remember folks Florida is suppose to be under a hurricane warning with a cat 2 headed for them according to the GFS and what it was forecasting two weeks ago.lol.Conditions aren't favorable in the atlantic right now and as I've said it and so have Doc shear forecast can be hardly reliable days out.
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2nd TD of the EPAC season has formed!

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New tornado warning for northeast Kansas.

893
WFUS53 KTOP 282057
TORTOP
KSC131-282130-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0009.130528T2057Z-130528T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTRALIA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA AND CORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9597 3965 9596 3961 9619 3969 9624
3981 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 239DEG 17KT 3967 9615

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

LEIGHTON
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Here's another tornado-warned cell moving in an odd direction (i.e. - not northeast). This one is headed northwest as it surfs along the back edge of an outflow/gust front:

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So how many people think Barbara will make it into the Atlantic (BOC)?
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Good rain coming in now for WPB
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T.C.F.W.
02E/TD/XX/CX
MARK
14.11N/96.8W
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
they are not considered the same system



Teddy is right. New naming procedures states the storm keeps it's name as long as it keeps it core identity.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new naming process states that a tropical cyclone entering one basin from another will keep its original name. Only if the system first dissipates but remains distinguishable and subsequently redevelops will it receive a new name. For example, if "Barbara" moves into the Bay of Campeche, it will still be known as Tropical Storm Barbara as opposed to Tropical Storm Andrea. If "Barbara" dissipates over the mountains of Mexico but remains distinguishable and then moves into the Bay of Campeche and redevelops, it will be known as Tropical Storm Andrea.


What's interesting is that the NHC shows it becoming post-tropical right as it moves into the GOMEX. That being said, conditions in the BoC aren't exactly favorable, but they're decreasing slowly. If TD2E can develop a strong anti-cyclone over it, it may have a chance at intensifying over the BoC.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I guess the cloudiness blocking the sun may be a cause but there may be other factors involved.

Stronger trade winds from the High out in the ATL...
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The new naming process states that a tropical cyclone entering one basin from another will keep its original name. Only if the system first dissipates but remains distinguishable and subsequently redevelops will it receive a new name. For example, if "Barbara" moves into the Bay of Campeche, it will still be known as Tropical Storm Barbara as opposed to Tropical Storm Andrea. If "Barbara" dissipates over the mountains of Mexico but remains distinguishable and then moves into the Bay of Campeche and redevelops, it will be known as Tropical Storm Andrea.
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I'm watching thunderstorms approaching me from the east near Tampa Bay, already had a quick downpour as I left work down the street, I love this kind of weather, I'm glad its back on schedule just in time for June!
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Expedition 36 Trio has Launched and is on orbit to rendezvous with the ISS tonight.

Three new Expedition 36 crew members launched aboard the Soyuz TMA-09M spacecraft from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan at 4:31 p.m. EDT Tuesday (2:31 a.m. Wednesday, Baikonur time) to begin an accelerated six-hour journey to the International Space Station.

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doc has updated the top section of the blog to reflect 02E's formation
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Well, looks like the rainy season is arriving here in Florida, it will be much needed here on the West Coast of Florida as it has been very dry here despite pretty moist conditions across the eastern half of Florida and south Florida.

The models seem to be hinting at the possibility of Debby round 2 for the Tampa Bay area. It may or may not happen, but I wouldn't be surprised as it is pretty common to see broad and weak tropical storms impact the Tampa Bay area with drenching rains early in the hurricane season. Its happened here quite a few times since I've lived here.


Meanwhile tornado season remains in full swing in the great plains, there have been some epic tornado footage and intercepts over the past few days.
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they are not considered the same system

Quoting CybrTeddy:
If this occurs, it's possible the system we've been talking about wouldn't be named Andrea, but Barbara.
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here we go!
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics!

It has been mostly cloudy since the start of the day, but still very humid.


Here is has been a very wet May being the 4th most rainy May on record and there are three days left to get closer to the all time record of 16.87 inches on 1936.


.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 12.04" SO FAR. MAY 1936 CONTINUES TO BE
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WITH 16.87".
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If this occurs, it's possible the system we've been talking about wouldn't be named Andrea, but Barbara.
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Also, the NHC says TD 2E can go up to 60 mph. I think that with the given conditions, that 60 mph is plausible...maybe even a little higher. I think it would be interesting to see "Barbara" in the Atlantic though!

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The NWS say it going to get up to 60MPH!
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Confirmed tornado in Oklahoma

275
WFUS54 KAMA 282033
TORAMA
OKC007-282100-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0001.130528T2033Z-130528T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF MOCANE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEAVER.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
BEAVER... MOCANE... KNOWLES...
FORGAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9999 3670 10038 3685 10059 3700 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 208DEG 11KT 3689 10043

$$

JOHNSON
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Might be able to cross over if it can keep its stuff together.
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Quoting Patrap:
T-minus :45 min LIVE NOW: NASA TV Coverage for Next Soyuz Space Station Crew Launch/nasatv


Thanks for posting this - I got online just in time to see it.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon nigel. How are things weatherwise in Jamaica?

Hey Tropics!

It has been mostly cloudy since the start of the day, but still very humid.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
tropical depression she is
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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