TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like Florida is going to be wet for a while...

The west side needs some. .
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Quoting Dakster:
It's been a hot, west, nasty day for me as well.

Although the weather has been ok.
HeHe..
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The whole mess off the Yucatan will probably die down when TD 2-E does since it's feeding off of it heavily (virtually no vorticity at any level). It has another 36 hours to spin itself downwards before its wind of opportunity closes.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
More rain


Hey Baha!

I see that you guys are getting quite a bit of rain as well.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Looks like Florida is going to be wet for a while...

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Quoting bigwes6844:
kool try to snap sum photos for us!

If I get anything I'll be sure to get pics.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is has been a very wet May being the 4th most rainy May on record and there are three days left to get closer to the all time record of 16.87 inches on 1936.


.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 12.04" SO FAR. MAY 1936 CONTINUES TO BE
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WITH 16.87".
More rain

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
If shear doesn't calm down I don't think that mass of rain near the Yucatan will turn into anything.
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It's been a hot, west, nasty day for me as well.

Although the weather has been ok.
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Thank god this thing lifted before hitting Corning.
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ChaserTV
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah, not many bloggers are up here, of course Dr. Masters.

Unconfirmed report of a tornado in Leslie, MI. New tornado issued for areas farther east. It's still headed right to me.
kool try to snap sum photos for us!
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tele-connections across the basin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55970
The Global Hazard update is out and mentions a possible TC development near the Yucatan Peninsula.



The Week-2 outlook is based largely on the expectation of a renewed organization of the MJO with its enhanced phase centered across Africa propagating eastward into the Indian Ocean. Low frequency variability and model guidance are also used to create the outlook. Above-average (below-average) rainfall is favored across much of the western Indian Ocean (western Pacific) due to the forecast MJO phase. Uncertainty with respect to the MJO leads to reduced confidence in these areas. Wetter-than-average conditions are also favored across parts of western and central Africa based largely on MJO composites. The Caribbean is forecast to remain active into Week-2, with the threat of TC development lingering near the Yucatan Peninsula.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883
Quoting hydrus:
HWRF has 92E intensifying rapidly just before landfall.

It is the HWRF. Over intensifies most storms.
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I just got nailed with just under 2 inches of rain in around 30 minutes, we had wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and some intense lightning. My dry weather streak has finally ended with a bang as it often does here!

Looks like my chances at getting much more will only get better as the week goes. I really didn't expect this today given the forecast was a 20% of an isolated shower, I expected it to arrive by tomorrow. Tropical moisture has streamed north already.

I must say, the showers and thunderstorms feel a lot like tropical rain bands, very chaotic and the rain moves through in thick on and off waves or bursts rather than steady rain.
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HWRF has 92E intensifying rapidly just before landfall.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
i forgot u in michigan

Yeah, not many bloggers are up here, of course Dr. Masters.

Unconfirmed report of a tornado in Leslie, MI. New tornado issued for areas farther east. It's still headed right to me.
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here baha a vis fr ya I will drop one for ya from time to time

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55970


In the above image you can clearly see the connection between the wx affecting The Bahamas and our latest EPac system.

Also, I'd say the MJO has arrived....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55970
The storm that produced the large tornado seems poised to cycle an put something down again.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Looks like I missed a large tornado, darn.
Who knows, if this cell holds together I may get my chance in person.
i forgot u in michigan
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
we need to watch this rain here.
Definitely. Storms savor the Western Caribbean sea...:)
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Can TD 2-E do the exact same thing as tropical storm hermine ?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55970
Evening all. I was fortunate enough to get into a lull in the inclement wx this afternoon on the way home, but the thunder has been increasing since about 1/2 hour ago. I have a feeling round two is going to start shortly.

Anybody have suggestions on a website that for sat images in place of the NASA Viewer site is still down?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Couplet is coming back.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL NEMAHA AND WESTERN
CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES HAVE LIKELY
FALLEN WITH ANOTHER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 530 PM. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS THIS AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORNING...
FAIRVIEW...
GOFF...
WOODLAWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.
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Looks like I missed a large tornado, darn.
Who knows, if this cell holds together I may get my chance in person.
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In 30 minutes, the tornado has moved less than 10 miles.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Decent rotation with this storm in Ingham county, MI.

WFUS53 KGRR 282137
TORGRR
MIC065-282215-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0001.130528T2137Z-130528T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
537 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN INGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 533 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINNEVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
EDEN AND LESLIE AROUND 545 PM EDT.
BUNKER HILL AND DANSVILLE AROUND 555 PM EDT.
STOCKBRIDGE AROUND 605 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MILLVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 8414 4242 8460 4257 8460 4267 8415
4256 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 263DEG 30KT 4249 8451

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

NJJ







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Rotation has weakened quite a bit on the latest frame.
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Gone for now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Large tornado is still on the ground. It's moving very slow (may have even stalled for a little bit). Fortunately it looks like it may pass just north of Corning.
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temps for the new storm if it makes it
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#256 Who, What, Where...
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Quoting FutureWx6221:


I was 1 advisory too late in calling the depression, but it looks like the NHC is right in line with me in terms of intensity.

yea just about right with me but I don't tink this is lasting pass 36/48hours I don't think anything will be in 48hours I think most of the energy would start transferring over to the Gulf of Honduras/W Caribbean by then
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
TD 2-E:

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Here we go again... Flooding possible....


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
416 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO BANDERA TO DERBY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ANTICIPATED BURRO
(MEXICAN PLATEAU) THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
FURTHER EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS PROPAGATE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THE MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COMPLEX
TRANSITIONING FROM ONE THAT PRODUCES SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS) TO ONE THAT PRODUCES HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE WATCH AREA COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND RESULTANT FLASH
FLOODING.

TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-149-163-17 7-187-209-255-
259-285-287-325-453-491-493-290530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0003.130529T1200Z-130530T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALD WELL-COMAL-
DEWITT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNE S-KENDALL-LAVACA-
LEE-MEDINA-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...BANDERA...BASTROP...
SAN ANTONIO...BLANCO...BURNET...LOCKHART...NEW BRAUNFELS...
CUERO...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...GONZALES...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...
KARNES CITY...BOERNE...HALLETTSVILLE...GIDDINGS...HONDO.. .
AUSTIN...GEORGETOWN...FLORESVILLE
416 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLA NCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...FRI O...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...L AVACA...
LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
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Starting to get warm here again.
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Cuban radar mosaic
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465


I was 1 advisory too late in calling the depression, but it looks like the NHC is right in line with me in terms of intensity.
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Quoting Gearsts:
And the GEM develops this?
All I see is a sheared system.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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