TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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513
WFUS53 KDDC 282348
TORDDC
KSC165-290015-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0013.130528T2348Z-130529T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 642 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OTIS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. A SMALL TORNADO WAS
REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTH OF OTIS.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN RUSH COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3841 9903 3850 9920 3868 9903 3868 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 217DEG 18KT 3852 9903
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Its about to drop another one!
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91E up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...LOCATED NEAR THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You guys thought today was good wait for tomorrow.

I'm not sure about tomorrow...not as much as I have been the past few days anyways. We have a ton of extra upper-air support and wind shear, but instability isn't going to be as high and leftover convection may just create a big mess.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...

RGB Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting weatherbow:


What was the headline? Nothing about the tornado right now.
a new worldwide virus threat
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has to be some flash flooding...

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...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...
5:00 PM PDT Tue May 28
Location: 14.2°N 96.0°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting weatherbow:


What was the headline? Nothing about the tornado right now.
No its about a new virus. "New virus called a global threat", "The world needs to pull together its resources to properly tackle the virus, said the World Health Organization chief." You remember the Bird Flu scare?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
We have Barbara.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

929
WFUS53 KICT 282341
TORICT
KSC009-290030-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0020.130528T2341Z-130529T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALBERT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LANDSPOUT TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLMITZ AND HOISINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Rotation seems pretty much gone now. The storm ingested crapvection to its southwest.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Oh great the headline on CNN is going to start a mass panic. Take a look at it yourself...


What was the headline? Nothing about the tornado right now.
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
Storm is reforming very nicely and should drop another soon. Not sure how long it will last as another storm is about to smash the rotation.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Flooding is also becoming a problem since the storm isn't moving.

The latest scan shows the rotation weaker.
thank god.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You can still clearly hear the roar of the tornado

Not showing much sign of weakening either visually or on radar.

Flooding is also becoming a problem since the storm isn't moving.

The latest scan shows the rotation weaker.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
You guys thought today was good wait for tomorrow.
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Defiantly has lifted by now. Was on the ground for a long time though.

EDIT -- or maybe not?
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You can still clearly hear the roar of the tornado

Not showing much sign of weakening either visually or on radar.

EDIT: And new scan shows nothing. It's dead for now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Reed Timmer on Fox in the middle of a mile wide tornado
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Surely no lack of moisture in the ATL at this time as we approach the start of cane season. Big difference from the bone dry years past.

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Oh great the headline on CNN is going to start a mass panic. Take a look at it yourself...
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Absolutely massive tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Btw the tornado has moved west or has been stationary for the last 10-20 min.
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Quoting Ameister12:

I think your right. Rotation has weakened a bit.
As soon as I say that its back up again. Should still die in the next 1-10 min thought. Doubt it will last any longer.

Edit: Is really starting to die now. This will probably be the only tornado this storm produces.
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Chris Collura is streaming the wedge live SE of Ottawa KS:
Link
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Seems like it is finally killing itself with the cool air from not moving. Was wondering how much longer it could last.

I think your right. Rotation has weakened a bit.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Wow, it just won't budge. It actually appeared to backed up towards the west.
Seems like it is finally killing itself with the cool air from not moving. Was wondering how much longer it could last.
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Wow, it just won't budge. It actually appeared to backed up towards the west.
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Sweet a DOW is on it right now. Still seems to be a mile wide and not moving. Can't believe the storm has not suffocated itself yet.
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on matt's cam there was a huge lightning bolt that almost hit them!
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Quoting Ameister12:

I don't know, It's very close to the town and is showing no signs of stopping soon.
It is not even moving atm.
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This makes me think the tornado may last a long while.


Shows that even though tornado is more in the precip area of the storm inflow for it is still reaching it. Very weird shape. Tornado is right were the yellow meso symbol is.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It is moving so slow I doubt it will get there. I think it would reach Bennington in 20-30 min.

I don't know, It's very close to the town and is showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.
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How do you like my new Forecast for TD 2 in the Eastern Pacific
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It is moving so slow I doubt it will get there. I think it would reach Bennington in 20-30 min.

Looking at a radar loop of the storm, it almost looks like the tornado is turning back to the west a little. Still really huge.

The tornadic storm that was headed toward me dissipated in Livingston County... :(
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
The tornado has been on the ground for quite a while but shows no sign of weakening, and there really isn't any obvious reason it would weaken. Absolutely massive, easily a mile wide.
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Still a mile plus wide. Not moving at all.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Over a mild wide and rain wrapped. We can only hope it cycles and dissipates before hitting Bennington.
It is moving so slow I doubt it will get there. I think it would reach Bennington in 20-30 min.
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Over a mild wide and rain wrapped. We can only hope it cycles and dissipates before hitting Bennington.
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This tornado has most likely exceeded 1 mile in width.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Two large tornadoes on the ground now!
This is incredible. The entire rain shield is rotating rapidly. Matt Grantham has a good shot.
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MAN That's an incredibly large tornado, I've never seen anything that big before. It takes up the entire screen!
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350. VR46L
TD 02E
Looking at the loop included it would appear to be weakening

Image from RAMMB

Loop embedded

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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