TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

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Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

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With the development of Tropical Storm Barbara, this year is the second consecutive year for the eastern Pacific to feature two named storms in the month of May. In addition, this year is tied with 2012, 2007, 1984, and 1956 for featuring the most named storms in the eastern Pacific on May.
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I get the feeling that Dominator 2 has just been sitting in a tornado for the last 5 minutes. Either that or incredibly heavy rain and wind.
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I've been multi-tasking this afternoon/evening, trying to monitor the tornadoes while also writing a blog, which I have now finished and posted if you're interested.

Link
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http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/blogs/carib_ir 4_sat_tropicalindex_0.gif?20135282016


Is there something brewing in the Caribbean?
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I have to wonder about the condition of the field west of Bennington. This wedge tornado has been spinning across it for well over an hour now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
For those asking, I've been following storms on my RadarScope (that app is soooo awesome) including that tornado that went in a small circle.

Link?


Link
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For those asking, I've been following storms on my RadarScope (that app is soooo awesome) including that tornado that went in a small circle.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Did D2 just intercept? Lots of crazy stuff going on that webcast.
Link?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7462
Well, I just got home from celebration dinner because I got my first job today working at Walmart. My parents also told me to blow off my first paycheck so I'm planning on saving up until I get enough for GRLevel2Analyst.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7462
What's left of a home hit by the large tornado earlier near Corning, Kansas.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Did D2 just intercept? Lots of crazy stuff going on that webcast.
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Quoting VegasRain:
Tornado Warning for Erie County PA. Strong rotation on radar and a spotter confirmed Tornado near Waterford PA.
Seems like weak to no rotation on the storm and the warning has no mention of a spotter confirmed tornado. Does mention a brief weak tornado was spawned earlier.
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Tornado Warning for Erie County PA. Strong rotation on radar and a spotter confirmed Tornado near Waterford PA.
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There we go, tornado warning issued for that storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
And now we have a tornado warning for Ottawa County, KS!

551
WFUS53 KTOP 290006
TORTOP
KSC143-290030-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0017.130529T0006Z-130529T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 702 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CULVER...AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 9760 3897 9759 3897 9777 3905 9778
3907 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 067DEG 1KT 3901 9773

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

551
WFUS53 KTOP 290006
TORTOP
KSC143-290030-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0017.130529T0006Z-130529T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 702 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CULVER...AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.



LAT...LON 3909 9760 3897 9759 3897 9777 3905 9778
3907 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 067DEG 1KT 3901 9773

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125583
It's warned again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"THIS REPLACES THE TORNADO WARNING FOR THIS AREA."
Yeah just got it. Need to remember net is messed up today.
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That has to be a tornado. There is no way...
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I don't think we are ever going to get to see this one.

Yeah, this thing is more than likely completely rain wrapped.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Did the NWS just allow the tornado warning to expire without reissuing?

"THIS REPLACES THE TORNADO WARNING FOR THIS AREA."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting Ameister12:
Likely producing another huge tornado.


No spotter confirmation and no tornado warning
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.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Likely producing another massive tornado.
I don't think we are ever going to get to see this one.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
They tornado warn land spouts? Those things have fairly weak winds. People could walk in them if they wanted. Would most likely get knocked down but they could.

Yes they do.

Also now the wording for the warning is a rope tornado(the small cell one). It was for a landspout earlier.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Likely producing another huge tornado.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Would be amazing to have 3 name storms in the Eastern Pacific in May and 3 name storms in June in the Atlantic.

nah thats wild
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This storm needs a tornado warning again. A severe t-storm warning was issued in place for the old tornado warning, but with the rotation back a new warning is needed.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Confirmed landspout tornado, so not the type of tornadoes like in Bennington.

Speaking of that tornado near Bennington, it's backkkk...
They tornado warn land spouts? Those things have fairly weak winds. People could walk in them if they wanted. Would most likely get knocked down but they could.
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Quoting Civicane49:
91E up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...LOCATED NEAR THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Would be amazing to have 3 name storms in the Eastern Pacific in May and 3 name storms in June in the Atlantic.
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It's back.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Interesting
14.2N 96.5W Adv#1
14.2N 96.0W Adv#1A

moved east lets see what its at 8pm PDT
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This has to be a mistake. Tornado warning was issued 4 min ago for a confirmed tornado on these cells. Calling BS.


Confirmed landspout tornado, so not the type of tornadoes like in Bennington.

Speaking of that tornado near Bennington, it's backkkk...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Oh my. Its back and stronger than ever.
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Dick McGowan just reported on Fox the tornado in central Kansas has moved east, north, then west and has been in the same vicinity for nearly 45 mins.
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Quoting Ameister12:
TS Barbara: organizing nicely




It is indeed organizing nicely. You can see the deep convection wrapping around the center.
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Pacific season seems to be coming to a healthy start, right?
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This has to be a mistake. Tornado warning was issued 4 min ago for a confirmed tornado on these cells. Calling BS.

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Quoting yqt1001:
91E



91E has improved slightly with more organized convection near the partially exposed low-level center.
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Wheee....?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
TS Barbara: organizing nicely


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731
WFUS51 KCLE 282353
TORCLE
PAC049-290045-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0001.130528T2353Z-130529T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 751 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
WATERFORD...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF ERIE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
UNION CITY AROUND 805 PM EDT.
CORRY AROUND 820 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.



LAT...LON 4201 7975 4200 7960 4185 7961 4185 8013
4209 8022 4212 8016 4217 8013 4218 8007
4216 8006 4224 7989 4224 7985 4228 7978
4228 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 267DEG 37KT 4192 8001
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125583
91E

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Last few frames show a organizing storm.

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA

Rainbow Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125583
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No its about a new virus. "New virus called a global threat", "The world needs to pull together its resources to properly tackle the virus, said the World Health Organization chief." You remember the Bird Flu scare?


Oh okay. That would seem to cause panic!

If I'm not mistaken, they're going to talk about the tornadoes in a few minutes.

They're also going to talk about the train explosion outside Baltimore that happened today. I saw the smoke from it from my house (I'm on the other side of the city), and my uncle had his windows blown out from it. It was unbelievable!
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
we have TS Barbara
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.2N/96.9W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Tropical Storm Barbara:

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Wedge tornado doing a cyclonic loop

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515
WUUS53 KEAX 282350
SVREAX
KSC043-MOC087-290015-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0074.130528T2350Z-130529T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 649 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROBINSON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIGHLAND...TROY...LEONA...SEVERANCE...IOWA POINT AND FANNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



LAT...LON 3989 9534 3994 9534 3998 9505 3974 9502
3976 9534 3988 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 261DEG 29KT 3984 9534

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125583

513
WFUS53 KDDC 282348
TORDDC
KSC165-290015-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0013.130528T2348Z-130529T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 642 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OTIS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. A SMALL TORNADO WAS
REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTH OF OTIS.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN RUSH COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3841 9903 3850 9920 3868 9903 3868 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 217DEG 18KT 3852 9903
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125583

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.