April 2013: Earth's 13th warmest April; 92E a threat to Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

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April 2013 was the globe's 13th warmest April since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA also rated it the 13th warmest April on record. The year-to-date period of January - April has been the 8th warmest such period on record. April 2013 global land temperatures were the 17th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record. April 2013 was the 338th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 13th or 11th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during April 2013 was the 9th largest in the 47-year period of record, and the first above-average April snow cover since 2003. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April 2013 in his April 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that The U.K. had its coldest April since 1989, and a storm felled the Pontfadog Oak, said by some to be Britain’s oldest tree. The historic tree dated back to at least 802 A.D., and was said to have served as a rallying point for a Welsh prince’s army that defeated England’s King Henry II in 1157 A.D.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2013, the 13th warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Temperatures were much warmer than average across much of Mexico, the coastal regions of South America, most of Argentina, southern Europe, parts of coastal Africa, far eastern Europe, and western Australia. Record warm temperatures were observed across the southern tip of South America, far western Brazil, the southern Philippines, and some locales in far eastern Russia. It was much cooler than average across a swath of central North America, central Paraguay, part of northwestern Canada, and much of Alaska, where the southeastern portion of Alaska had record cold April temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

One billion-dollar disaster in April: floods in Buenos Aires, Argentina
Torrential rainfall fell across parts of Argentina’s city and province of Buenos Aires between the 2nd and 4th, triggering flash flooding that killed at least 70 and did $1.3 billion in damage, making it the deadliest and most damaging weather disaster world-wide in April. In the city of Buenos Aires, seven hours of heavy rains flooded subways and submerged low-lying neighborhoods. Hardest-hit was the La Plata region, where 400 millimeters (15.74 inches) of rain fell in just two hours. The total was more than the city had ever recorded during an entire month of April. Argentina’s largest refinery, Ensenada, also sustained damage from the floods, plus a fire.

The Argentinian flood in April brought the 2013 tally of billion-dollar weather disasters to six, according to the April 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The six billion-dollar weather disasters through April 2013:

1) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
2) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
3) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
4) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
5) Flooding in Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
6) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

Preliminary damage estimates of $2 billion from the May 20, 2013 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma tornado will likely put that disaster on the list for May.


Figure 2. Severe flooding in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on April, 3, 2013 submerged half the city in waters up to 2 meters (6.6') deep. Image credit: focolare.org.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 13th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during April 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of May 20, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 7th lowest April extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during April reached its seventh lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 12th consecutive April and 143rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen seven of the ten lowest April extents in the satellite record.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Invest 92E.

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala
Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)


Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Monday, May 28, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. You can follow this week's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest begins today
The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period Monday though Wednesday in the Midwest, with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Monday) over portions of Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska. The severe weather outbreak will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, though SPC is only highlighting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather on those days at present.

Have a great Memorial Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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The Gulf is ready for business!

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Almost a TD.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.




If anyone wants it, here is a link to the Mexico RADAR Network. Link
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GFS Ensembles 240hrs thru 276hrs




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GFS Ensembles precip accum

1-5 day


6-10 day


11-15 day
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Africa..

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.
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6z GFS




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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I see 92E is still it.. maybe upgrade by 11Am as NHC hints.

Would this system (regardless of development) enhance development of a new system in the western Caribbean as some people here call for...

Something like. Alma-Arthur in 2008...

sorry, not been on top of the updates lately

yep yep yep
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13574
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You can already see convection gathering in the NW Caribbean.



So it's going to be a typical monsoon low formation cyclonic low?
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Almost a TD.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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Are the Tampa Shields down this year?

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You can already see convection gathering in the NW Caribbean.


I know
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13574
I see 92E is still it.. maybe upgrade by 11Am as NHC hints.

Would this system (regardless of development) enhance development of a new system in the western Caribbean as some people here call for...

Something like. Alma-Arthur in 2008...

sorry, not been on top of the updates lately
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WPC is considering the CMC as an outlier..from their 2am discussion

THE 12Z CMC IS AN OUTLIER WITH ERN TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE VAST MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH ITS
ERN GULF SYSTEM THAT GETS CAPTURED BY ITS AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-282330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY
TODAY PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS EXCEPT THE TAMPA
BAY THROUGH MID MORNING. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EASTERLY SURGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS BACK INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES HIGH ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHERE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL




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You can already see convection gathering in the NW Caribbean.

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The CMC starting at 120 hours.









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Euro is finally onboard with a system forming in the NW Caribbean.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I've seen some models showing 25" to 28" of rain across FL over the next 2 weeks. This is something that really needs to be watched as this is a very dangerous flood set up for FL especially as many areas across eastern FL has already had a very wet April and May.



Wow..the bahamas about to take a licking and hopefully keep on ticking..
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I've seen some models showing 25" to 28" of rain across FL over the next 2 weeks. This is something that really needs to be watched as this is a very dangerous flood set up for FL especially as many areas across eastern FL has already had a very wet April and May.

5 day precip accum GGEM
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Florida is in for a very serious rain event over the next 2 weeks as deep tropical moisture gets pulled up into FL from 92E.


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92E looks like it could be TS Barbara(40 mph)

also looks like its moving ENE-NE I'm not sure if thats just the convection or its actual movement
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13574
92E...

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Since the weather is inclement, and looks to stay that way for a while, I think I'll have some oatmeal this morning... the big-flaked, fluffy old-fashioned kind cooked in milk with brown sugar, nuts and raisins added...

And a cup of coffee [of course :o)]

You can join me... fixin's on the sideboard... or consult the chef for further meal ideas...

Have a great one! Gotta get out in between the raindrops...


I've recently found I'm carbohydrate intolerant, so no oatmeal, bread, muffins, biscuits, potatoes for me. Not even having fruit or milk.

This morning, I had two boiled eggs and a bowl of prawn cocktail. I'm not trying to lose weight, but I've lost about 7lbs in the two months I've been off carbs.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3243
go figure big bend landfalls are rare during cape verde season yet during early season they are almost common
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Since the weather is inclement, and looks to stay that way for a while, I think I'll have some oatmeal this morning... the big-flaked, fluffy old-fashioned kind cooked in milk with brown sugar, nuts and raisins added...

And a cup of coffee [of course :o)]

You can join me... fixin's on the sideboard... or consult the chef for further meal ideas...

Have a great one! Gotta get out in between the raindrops...
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Okay... that was ... fun... while it lasted....

Now back to the computer...

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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

May 2013 now ranks as the 4th wettest in San Juan on record and we may break the record with the wet forecasts until May 31.

MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 12.04" SO FAR. MAY 1936 CONTINUES TO BE
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WITH 16.87".
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Link

The Week-2 outlook is based on the expectation of a renewed organization of the MJO with its enhanced phase across the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Although dynamical MJO index forecasts differ on the exact evolution of the MJO signal, models generally agree on the enhanced phase of the MJO centered over the Western Hemisphere. Below average rainfall is expected to continue across the Philippines and expand east across the western Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean, south India, Sri Lanka, and western Africa are expected to become more convectively active which is consistent with MJO precipitation composites. Above average rainfall is likely to persist across the eastern Pacific Ocean, Central America, and shift east into the western Caribbean Sea. Warmer than normal SSTs and enhanced convection maintains elevated chances for tropical cyclone development across the eastern Pacific Ocean. A large scale ridge predicted over the southern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico during Week-2 is expected to reduce wind shear and provide favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Due to the reduced wind shear in an area of enhanced convection, the development of an early season tropical cyclone is favored for the northwest Caribbean Sea. The GFS model has been consistent in developing a potential tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in early June.
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Quoting Civicane49:


i see its making way into the GOM!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all. This is BahaHurican. I. am trying to fix m phone.so I.can use it to blog. This is not as easy as I was expecting ....
I think it worked! Lol. We have cooler than average temperature this a.m. and it just started POURING.rain!
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Good morning all. This is BahaHurican. I. am trying to fix m phone.so I.can use it to blog. This is not as easy as I was expecting ....
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from spaceweather.com
ELECTRON STORM: In the past 24 hours, the flux of high-energy electrons swarming around Earth has increased more than tenfold. The source of this "electron storm" is a 700 km/s stream of solar wind buffeting Earth's magnetic field. NOAA cautions satellite operators that "satellite systems may experience significant charging" in response to accumulated electrons.

I would have to look deeper for a list, but there has been times during this solar cycle that the electrons have been this high
here is just one time from May 2010



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Low-level center of 92E is slowly becoming better defined but still broad on the recent ASCAT pass.

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deleted... photo wouldn't link


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

caribbean really high just about enough to support a hurricane


If we're talking strictly about TCHP here, it's probably actually able to support an upper end major hurricane. It really doesn't take as much heat content as you might think; provided other parameters (dry air/instability, wind shear, etc.) are equal, it really doesn't take heat content that is off the charts to start getting category 3 and stronger storms.
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Quoting Dakster:


What is getting really moist?

caribbean

anyway I takin a nap cause I fallin off the chair
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

getting real moist
More than anyone wanted to know.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

getting real moist


What is getting really moist?
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Quoting Civicane49:



caribbean really high just about enough to support a hurricane
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Quoting Civicane49:



getting real moist
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

on caribbean side it increasing too


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Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. Convection is continuing to increase on 92E.

on caribbean side it increasing too
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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