April 2013: Earth's 13th warmest April; 92E a threat to Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

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April 2013 was the globe's 13th warmest April since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA also rated it the 13th warmest April on record. The year-to-date period of January - April has been the 8th warmest such period on record. April 2013 global land temperatures were the 17th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record. April 2013 was the 338th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 13th or 11th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during April 2013 was the 9th largest in the 47-year period of record, and the first above-average April snow cover since 2003. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April 2013 in his April 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that The U.K. had its coldest April since 1989, and a storm felled the Pontfadog Oak, said by some to be Britain’s oldest tree. The historic tree dated back to at least 802 A.D., and was said to have served as a rallying point for a Welsh prince’s army that defeated England’s King Henry II in 1157 A.D.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2013, the 13th warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Temperatures were much warmer than average across much of Mexico, the coastal regions of South America, most of Argentina, southern Europe, parts of coastal Africa, far eastern Europe, and western Australia. Record warm temperatures were observed across the southern tip of South America, far western Brazil, the southern Philippines, and some locales in far eastern Russia. It was much cooler than average across a swath of central North America, central Paraguay, part of northwestern Canada, and much of Alaska, where the southeastern portion of Alaska had record cold April temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

One billion-dollar disaster in April: floods in Buenos Aires, Argentina
Torrential rainfall fell across parts of Argentina’s city and province of Buenos Aires between the 2nd and 4th, triggering flash flooding that killed at least 70 and did $1.3 billion in damage, making it the deadliest and most damaging weather disaster world-wide in April. In the city of Buenos Aires, seven hours of heavy rains flooded subways and submerged low-lying neighborhoods. Hardest-hit was the La Plata region, where 400 millimeters (15.74 inches) of rain fell in just two hours. The total was more than the city had ever recorded during an entire month of April. Argentina’s largest refinery, Ensenada, also sustained damage from the floods, plus a fire.

The Argentinian flood in April brought the 2013 tally of billion-dollar weather disasters to six, according to the April 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The six billion-dollar weather disasters through April 2013:

1) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
2) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
3) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
4) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
5) Flooding in Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
6) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

Preliminary damage estimates of $2 billion from the May 20, 2013 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma tornado will likely put that disaster on the list for May.


Figure 2. Severe flooding in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on April, 3, 2013 submerged half the city in waters up to 2 meters (6.6') deep. Image credit: focolare.org.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 13th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during April 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of May 20, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 7th lowest April extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during April reached its seventh lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 12th consecutive April and 143rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen seven of the ten lowest April extents in the satellite record.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Invest 92E.

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala
Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)


Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Monday, May 28, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. You can follow this week's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest begins today
The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period Monday though Wednesday in the Midwest, with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Monday) over portions of Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska. The severe weather outbreak will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, though SPC is only highlighting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather on those days at present.

Have a great Memorial Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Just a curious question, whats Florida's record for most years without a hurricane impact?
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


It has an 80% chance. May be designated tonight.
It may be designated as what tonite?
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Can someone please tell mother nature she left the water on down here...

Not that I want a drought, but at the same time there isn't a lot of 'high' ground either.
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92E remains at 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE DECREASED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14246
Very large and low wall cloud on Tornadoraiders stream.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's why they advertise this on some of the brochures here.



This says it all too.

Poor Florida..something bad is ALWAYS happening..What hurricane is that in the image?.
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Link Current Mesoscale Discussions
...good grief...
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Quoting beell:


Might look a little different at 700 mb. Which is (fwiw) a level I prefer for the monsoons.


I see, true enough. I still submit that the termination of the 500mb sub-equatorial ridge axis at ~70°W will be what ultimately allows some sort of significant monsoonal intrusion into the western Caribbean, probably not until about a week from now as you postulated. The precip will be kicking up long before then, though.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Doesn't feel like it, but it's true...

@NWSTallahassee 2m

FACT: about 40% of U.S. hurricanes & major hurricanes have passed through Florida. #flwx
That's why they advertise this on some of the brochures here.



This says it all too.

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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Hello! I'm in N. Wales! I'm sure it's been last 5 summers that were bad! LOL

I've not been here for such a cold and late spring before, so no idea what to expect for summer. I wouldn't mind a few decent beach days...on my days off mind :P

I hate the very late sunset and very early sunrise of late spring through summer even here, live alone even further towards a pole!


Hi, I'm in N. Wales, too. I didn't think that 2009 and 2010 were too bad, but 2011 and 2012 were quite lousy summers. Ok, if you compare that to Florida, all Welsh summer must feel too cold, haha.
This weekend was quite nice, just still a bit on the cold side. Where's the sub-tropical air when you need it?

Before moving here, I lived in Finland where it didn't get dark for about 3 months in summer, imagine 4 hours of twilight. The first summer up there, my body clock went completely bananas, I only slept for about 4 hours a night. The opposite in winter: 4-5 hours of daylight which can become quite depressing and you are very sleepy. Eventually, you get used to it though. Dealing with the cold was also easier than I expected.
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350. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Loks like a storm out in the Atlantic to me..


Not Seeing it but then again it depends on what you call a storm .All I see is an area of low pressure that doesn't really develop ! But My eyes are not the greatest and I might be missing something
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
For right now this seems like the only storm that could produce a tornado. Storms are firing to the south of this one and are better spaced. Will be interesting to see how they develop. Conditions support strong to violent tornadoes today in the current tornado warned area so if anything forms it could be big. Good thing the population in this area is tiny to none.

Looking at the streams and a nice wall cloud has developed on this storm.


Storm just got tornado warned.

WFUS53 KGID 272327
TORGID
KSC183-280000-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0011.130527T2327Z-130528T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
627 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 624 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHOL...OR 24 MILES EAST
OF PHILLIPSBURG....AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SMITH CENTER...BELLAIRE AND LEBANON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 9906 3997 9906 3994 9852 3971 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 289DEG 31KT 3982 9885

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BRYANT





Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Doesn't feel like it, but it's true...

@NWSTallahassee 2m

FACT: about 40% of U.S. hurricanes & major hurricanes have passed through Florida. #flwx
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I wonder if that is from the Wave that is about to emerge off of Africa that ncstorm was showing.
I've been wondering the origin of the storm.Other models have been showing it.
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Quoting ncstorm:
fingers crossed that I have the right image..

up to 240 hours


up to 360 hours
Looks like FL. rainy season about to kick into high gear.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Loks like a storm out in the Atlantic to me..
I wonder if that is from the Wave that is about to emerge off of Africa that ncstorm was showing.
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fingers crossed that I have the right image..

up to 240 hours


up to 360 hours
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Quoting VR46L:


Wash I aint yelling .. Just telling the truth !
Loks like a storm out in the Atlantic to me..
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341. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:


Thats a great image Hydrus ...Very Cool!
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340. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why are you yelling? like I get it you made your point.


Wash I aint yelling .. Just telling the truth !
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Cap is almost gone. Shouldn't be long now.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
For right now this seems like the only storm that could produce a tornado. Storms are firing to the south of this one and are better spaced. Will be interesting to see how they develop. Conditions support strong to violent tornadoes today in the current tornado warned area so if anything forms it could be big. Good thing the population in this area is tiny to none.

Looking at the streams and a nice wall cloud has developed on this storm.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Nothing impressive going on in Central USA other than couple of weak tornado warnings. Should get something going later tonight. SPC is sure of that.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting VR46L:


Its showing 2 nothings much, for the last 2 runs .. Just rain makers nothing more!
Why are you yelling? like I get it you made your point.
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Source
Good night with that little hook ...
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333. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS has been consistent in showing two storms..


Its showing 2 nothings much, for the last 2 runs .. Just rain makers nothing more!
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Quoting ncstorm:


your site images updated..it looks like to show a different scenario than what I posted earlier..

NCEP last frame


Your site


Yeah, there's zero difference between those two images. I'm not sure what you saw, but I can promise you the data being used to generate both plots is identical. Some lows may be shown on my plot that are not shown on the NCEP plot due to differences in the extrema-finding algorithm, but the pressure field itself is identical. It's simply a matter of how many minima the programmer chooses to display. Nobody can ever plot them all or they would crowd the image.
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Quoting Levi32:


No it doesn't. My plots use the exact same data as NCEP's and everyone else's.


my fault Levi..too much cookout on my brain..
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330. beell




05/27 18Z GFS 700 mb @ 120 hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16595
The GFS has been consistent in showing two storms..
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm not seeing an issue. If you're saying that two plots at the same forecast hour show different things, post them here and I'll try to clarify. I'll bet it's just a difference in plotting styles that you're seeing.


my fault everyone..GT right..I clicked the wrong 18z run..
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ncstorm those graphics you posted from Levi's site is the wrong date it said initialized on 5/25/13.
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326. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I don't think it will be that particular ridge. The sub-equatorial Atlantic ridge doesn't seem to extend much past 70W in the Caribbean due to already established troughiness in the Cuba / Bahamas / Florida area that won't want to fade away quickly. What I think will keep the monsoon circulation over central America for a while will be the ridge that develops over the north gulf coast in the wake of the trough that will move into the plains in a couple days and then lift north.

GFS 120 hours shows this ridge after the trough lifts out. Notice troughiness from the western Caribbean northeast to the Bahamas and beyond, but the monsoon circulation is too far west at this point to be drawn to the north yet.



Might look a little different at 700 mb. Which is (fwiw) a level I prefer for the monsoons.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16595
Quoting ncstorm:


so is yours correct?


I'm not seeing an issue. If you're saying that two plots at the same forecast hour show different things, post them here and I'll try to clarify. I'll bet it's just a difference in plotting styles that you're seeing.

E.g. 384 hour is fine:

NCEP:



Mine:

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134 Patrap: Summit, Greenland... ...Elev: 10522 ft

~3.2kilometres, 38feet short of being 2miles high
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting beell:
Any takers on the nose of the ATL sub-tropical ridge across the northern Caribbean/GOM suppressing any present or future monsoon disturbance into the EPAC for the next week? Blasphemy?


I don't think it will be that particular ridge. The sub-equatorial Atlantic ridge doesn't seem to extend much past 70W in the Caribbean due to already established troughiness in the Cuba / Bahamas / Florida area that won't want to fade away quickly. What I think will keep the monsoon circulation over central America for a while will be the ridge that develops over the north gulf coast in the wake of the trough that will move into the plains in a couple days and then lift north.

GFS 120 hours shows this ridge after the trough lifts out. Notice troughiness from the western Caribbean northeast to the Bahamas and beyond, but the monsoon circulation is too far west at this point to be drawn to the north yet.

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252 hrs. vorticity shows the potential system as stretched out.

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Quoting beell:
Any takers on the nose of the ATL sub-tropical ridge across the northern Caribbean/GOM suppressing any present or future monsoon disturbance into the EPAC for the next week? Blasphemy?

Nah. Shouldn't be an issue in a few days.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
Quoting Levi32:


No it doesn't. My plots use the exact same data as NCEP's and everyone else's.


so is yours correct?
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319. VR46L
Quoting beell:
Any takers on the nose of the ATL sub-tropical ridge across the northern Caribbean/GOM suppressing any present or future monsoon disturbance into the EPAC for the next week? Blasphemy?


LOL!!

I will take your word that thats a possibility!;)
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Quoting beell:
Any takers on the nose of the ATL sub-tropical ridge across the northern Caribbean/GOM suppressing any present or future monsoon disturbance into the EPAC for the next week?

Yeah most likely
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11974
"dam* Africa" (Mean Girls)

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Quoting ncstorm:


yeah..Levi site has a totally different scenario..

last frame from the NCEP..



No it doesn't. My plots use the exact same data as NCEP's and everyone else's.
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315. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


might be another plotting issue on Levi's site..that sure would have been interesting if that was the run..


Aye It might be Give it time .. probably a few teething problems ... It has the best graphics in my opinion ..
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The low will form off of Nicaragua move N and get enhanced by 92E N of Honduras develop more and move between NNE-ENE toward Cuba and Florida

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11974
I doubt we'll get an B storm from 92E. Maybe tropical depression, but the storm doesn't have that long before landfall.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting VR46L:


Ralleigh is Identical to Instant Maps



might be another plotting issue on Levi's site..that sure would have been interesting if that was the run..
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311. beell
Any takers on the nose of the ATL sub-tropical ridge across the northern Caribbean/GOM suppressing any present or future monsoon disturbance into the EPAC for the next week? Blasphemy?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16595
Quoting gulfbreeze:
When did the NHC start this?




some time a go i think dont no what year but i this wanted too bring that up in case some of you where thinking has soon has the B storm moveed in too the gulf it would get a new name but it wont so has long has it has the same low and evere thing it will keep its name
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.