NOAA, TSR, UKMET, PSU, WSI, and WU Community Predict Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:11 PM GMT on May 24, 2013

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NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their May 23 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 205% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16.5 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 162% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. Only five seasons since the active hurricane period that began in 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Sandy was the only other major Atlantic hurricane of 2012. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were 0.4°C above average, and were 0.33°C above the oceans in the remainder of the global tropics. Long-range seasonal computer model forecasts predict a continuation of above-average SSTs in the MDR during much of hurricane season.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

3) No El Niño event is expected this year. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Neutral conditions have been present since last summer, and are predicted to remain neutral through hurricane season by most of the El Niño computer forecast models.

NOAA said, "This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2013 hurricane season could see activity comparable to some of the very active seasons since 1995." NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts. These models include the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model CM2.1, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model, the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office model, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble.


Figure 2. Graphic from the 2013 NOAA Atlantic hurricane season forecast highlighting the reasons for this year's anticipated active character.

How accurate are NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 3. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) for the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2003-2012, as a function of lead time. Forecast precision is assessed using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) which is the percentage improvement in mean square error over a climatology forecast (six hurricanes in a given year.) Positive skill indicates that the model performs better than climatology, while a negative skill indicates that it performs worse than climatology. Two different climatologies are used: a fixed 50-year (1950-1999) climatology, and a running prior 10-year climate norm. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May, and CSU stopped providing quantitative extended-range December hurricane outlooks in 2011. Skill climbs as the hurricane season approaches, with modest skill levels by early June, and good skill levels by early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

TSR predicts an active hurricane season: 15.3 named storms
The May 24 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 15.3 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 3.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--11% - 25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 63% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 21% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these late May forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 8% - 12% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and slower than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.

UKMET office predicts a slightly above normal Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.

WSI predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The April 8 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for an active season with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

Penn State predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

The wunderground community predicts an active hurricane season: 17 named storms
Over 100 members of the wunderground community have submitted their seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are compiled on trHUrrIXC5MMX's blog. The April 28 version of this list called for an average of 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. This list will be updated by June 3, so get your forecasts in by then! As usual, I am abstaining from making a hurricane season forecast. I figure there's no sense making a forecast that will be wrong nearly half the time; I prefer to stick to higher-probability forecasts.



NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 13.5 named storms
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2013, there has already been one named storm. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 2 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

The week ahead: 91E, and a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
We're already behind last year's pace for named storms in both the Atlantic (where Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19, and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26), and in the Eastern Pacific, where Bud formed on May 21 (the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm.) The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific. The MJO is relatively weak, but is helping boost the chances that Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific will develop. On Friday, NHC was giving 91E a 20% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models were predicting that a weak circulation off the coast of Costa Rica, well east of the separate circulation currently called 91E, could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This system is a threat to spread heavy rains to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Guatemala on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS model is showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.) The prospects for an early June named storm in the Atlantic are probably above average, though, given that the MJO may be active in the Atlantic during the first week of June.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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510. VR46L
@507 LOL!!!

Anyway

shaping up to be another nasty 24hrs here..

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i hope you guys keep posting weather from everywhere. its everyones planet and everyones post. you can post whatever you like and if certain folks don't like it maybe they should be the ones to start there own blog.
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508. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


I guess my posts on European weather are not welcome too ....


You're posts are always welcome in my opinion.
I love the posts from all over ..makes me feel like a part of their community. Been lurking for a long time and post sometimes so I feel like everyone on here is family.
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Quoting VR46L:


I guess my posts on European weather are not welcome too ....


Much more welcome than gibberish a certain whiner posts.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Anyone have any input as to why there are differences in GFS model output depending on the computer you run the model on? I know this is out in la-la land timeframe (240 hours) but 12Z GFS from the new supercomputer (WCOSS):






Current production computer:




I would imagine that they can run the model at a much higher resolution on the Super Computer than the Production one.
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505. VR46L
Quoting Tazmanian:



am with you on this like how many of you guys are from Puerto Rico that blog on here??? i think vary few i think hafe of us are from the USA so oh cars about Puerto Rico weather i have seen post about Puerto Rico weather about 3 times a day on here may be its time that there sould be Puerto Rico weather blog so you can talk how about the weather in Puerto Rico you want


I guess my posts on European weather are not welcome too ....
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Glad to see everybody here's happy today.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33576
Anyone have any input as to why there are differences in GFS model output depending on the computer you run the model on? I know this is out in la-la land timeframe (240 hours) but 12Z GFS from the new supercomputer (WCOSS):






Current production computer:


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Quoting Tazmanian:



am with you on this like how many of you guys are from Puerto Rico that blog on here??? i think vary few i think hafe of us are from the USA so oh cars about Puerto Rico weather i have seen post about Puerto Rico weather about 3 times a day on here may be its time that there sould be Puerto Rico weather blog so you can talk how about the weather in Puerto Rico you want
I really disagree with you Taz. Yes, there are way more American members, but there's A LOT of islanders on here as well. Everybody is allowed to post whatever they want from their locations.
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12z GFS ensembles continues to predict a large low pressure system developing over the northwestern Caribbean on early June.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
this blog is a real doozy sometimes..people complain about long range model posts, people complain about which models you should show, people complain about posts without any explanation, people complain about long bandwidth posts, people complain about short posts..people complain about posts about location of bloggers..and yet all of this has to do with weather which is what this blog is supposed to be right?..

Im out till later..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I will post the information about PR and the Caribbean at my blog so nothing will be posted on Dr Masters blogs. Believe it or not,there are some people from the islands that are members and may want to know what is going on but go to my blog or to our friend Nigels one.
DO NOT! Lots of us want to know what's going on, and it's not just the islanders, either. Besides, you are not the only blogger posting yea and forever long posts on local wx. If you have to quit, so should everyone else. Since that actually contradicts the purpose of the blog, that would be a BAD IDEA.

U have to understand Taz is a minimalist... :o)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's possible to find a solution between the two extremes, you know.....


I would like for one of the mods to chim in on this to see how do we go ahead as what you said is correct about our fellow Caribbean members posting valuable information.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15363
Quoting Gearsts:
As i said...feel free to ignored.
It's possible to find a solution between the two extremes, you know.....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



am with you on this like how many of you guys are from Puerto Rico that blog on here??? i think vary few i think hafe of us are from the USA so oh cars about Puerto Rico weather i have seen post about Puerto Rico weather about 3 times a day on here may be its time that there sould be Puerto Rico weather blog so you can talk how about the weather in Puerto Rico you want
I don't agree. I find having regular posts from the bloggers in the Eastern Caribbean, PR, JA, Caymans etc. go a long way to keeping us in close contact with the TROPICAL wx they are experiencing. I agree the long posts should not be quoted if possible, but I don't see the PR wx posts any differently from what other pple constantly post from FL, TN, AL etc...
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495. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:



am with you on this like how many of you guys are from Puerto Rico that blog on here??? i think vary few i think hafe of us are from the USA so oh cars about Puerto Rico weather i have seen post about Puerto Rico weather about 3 times a day on here may be its time that there sould be Puerto Rico weather blog so you can talk how about the weather in Puerto Rico you want


I would say the bloggers from PR that visit WU do care .. even if they don't post ..
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro..well its official..4 major models with the Euro going west..LOL

Images are not posting on allan's site


Hey NC. I can't really tell what's going on on the EURO but I think they show something going up toward you from the Bahamas this time. Maybe. Lol. Link
Link

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well sometimes it is.For some people their computer can freeze due to a certain post and the bandwith it has taken up.It happened to me a few times in the past with my old computer and that resulted in some bloggers getting put on ignore.
I've found it's possible to delete the major portion of the post, just leaving enough to id the post.

Of course, all this could be solved by including the post # in the quote... [hint hint]
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Quoting Tazmanian:



am with you on this like how many of you guys are from Puerto Rico that blog on here??? i think vary few i think hafe of us are from the USA so oh cars about Puerto Rico weather i have seen post about Puerto Rico weather about 3 times a day on here may be its time that there sould be Puerto Rico weather blog so you can talk how about the weather in Puerto Rico you want
Taz im sorry but i disagree with you on this. We are all posting on a WEATHER blog so we are free to talk about any weather event.
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Quoting Gearsts:
I didn't know scrolling down was such a hassle so forgive me and feel free to ignored.


I will post the information about PR and the Caribbean at my blog so nothing will be posted on Dr Masters blogs. Believe it or not,there are some people from the islands that are members and may want to know what is going on but go to my blog or to our friend Nigels one.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15363
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well sometimes it is.For some people their computer can freeze due to a certain post and the bandwith it has taken up.It happened to me a few times in the past with my old computer and that resulted in some bloggers getting put on ignore.
As i said...feel free to ignored.
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Quoting yonzabam:


No, but I have to scroll through it. As do the rest of us, and that's a nuisance. There are far too many very long cut and pastes about Puerto Rico weather on here by that poster. By quoting them with one line posts, you just make things worse.

Of course, I could just put both of you on ignore, which I don't like doing. However, I think that's probably best thing to do. Ignored.



am with you on this like how many of you guys are from Puerto Rico that blog on here??? i think vary few i think hafe of us are from the USA so oh cars about Puerto Rico weather i have seen post about Puerto Rico weather about 3 times a day on here may be its time that there sould be Puerto Rico weather blog so you can talk how about the weather in Puerto Rico you want
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Quoting Gearsts:
I didn't know scrolling down was such a hassle so forgive me and feel free to ignored.
Quoting Gearsts:
I didn't know scrolling down was such a hassle so forgive me and feel free to ignored.
Well sometimes it is.For some people their computer can freeze due to a certain post and the bandwith it has taken up.It happened to me a few times in the past with my old computer and that resulted in some bloggers getting put on ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


No, but I have to scroll through it. As do the rest of us, and that's a nuisance. There are far too many very long cut and pastes about Puerto Rico weather on here by that poster. By quoting them with one line posts, you just make things worse.

Of course, I could just put both of you on ignore, which I don't like doing. However, I think that's probably best thing to do. Ignored.
I didn't know scrolling down was such a hassle so forgive me and feel free to ignored.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Sorry but i wasn't talking to you.


No, but I have to scroll through it. As do the rest of us, and that's a nuisance. There are far too many very long cut and pastes about Puerto Rico weather on here by that poster. By quoting them with one line posts, you just make things worse.

Of course, I could just put both of you on ignore, which I don't like doing. However, I think that's probably best thing to do. Ignored.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3153
Quoting yonzabam:


Did you really have to repeat a foot of bandwith on a cut & paste post about Puerto Rico weather?
Sorry but i wasn't talking to you.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wash..if you have something you want to say, my WU mail is open to discussion..Everytime I post something, you come at it negative but yet you never post anything yourself. If anyone has taken up for you the most on here against other bloggers, it has been me but yet lately you find come at my posts with nothing but sarcasm..I can expect that from other bloggers but not from you..

If you continue to act like that, please dont quote me or better yet put me on ignore..

Lol.I'm not mad at you and I use sarcasm with everyone.But really what was that in that in the gulf?.BTW I just learned how to use cut and paste and put images on here like this week/today.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS
starting at 180 hours














Not liking this easterly solution, which could be expected to bring extensive rains to the NW Bahamas. We are just recuperating from this week's rain event...
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Wash..if you have something you want to say, my WU mail is open to discussion..Everytime I post something, you come at it negative but yet you never post anything yourself. If anyone has taken up for you the most on here against other bloggers, it has been me but yet lately you come at my posts with nothing but sarcasm..I can expect that from other bloggers but not from you..

If you continue to act like that, please dont quote me or better yet put me on ignore..

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Quoting Gearsts:
Maybe this crazy rain event will happen tomorrow?lol


Did you really have to repeat a foot of bandwith on a cut & paste post about Puerto Rico weather?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3153
SevereStudios‏@severestudios7 min
Tornado Warning for Goliad and Refugio County in TX until 3:30pm CDT. #txwx
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-261000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130526T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
252 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
POSE A RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN OVER THE AREA ON EAST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL...
NORTHERN...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN SOIL SATURATION AND THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON
SUNDAY WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

* EXPECT RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS OR GUTS AND RIVERS...WITH
MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE IN STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

Maybe this crazy rain event will happen tomorrow?lol
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Quoting Gearsts:
NWS San Juan‏@NWSSanJuan17m
Flash Flood Watch/Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas has been extended until Sunday afternoon 4 PR/Vieques/Culebra & USVI


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-261000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130526T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
252 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
POSE A RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN OVER THE AREA ON EAST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL...
NORTHERN...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN SOIL SATURATION AND THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON
SUNDAY WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

* EXPECT RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS OR GUTS AND RIVERS...WITH
MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE IN STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15363
NWS San Juan‏@NWSSanJuan17m
Flash Flood Watch/Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas has been extended until Sunday afternoon 4 PR/Vieques/Culebra & USVI
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro..well its official..4 major models with the Euro going west..LOL

Images are not posting on allan's site
Lol what was that?
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The rainy forecast continues without any change.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE 25/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO LOOSE AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO MVFR CONDS VCTY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ TIL 25/22Z DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION AND LOW SCUD CLDS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 25/23Z.
THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR COASTAL
WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VCSH
FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL WINDS WILL
FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT BCMG FM W WITH MAX WND
AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 85 / 70 70 60 60
STT 77 86 79 87 / 70 70 70 70

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15363
There was a tornado on the ground near Victoria, Texas a little while ago.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33576
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

GFS CMC/GGEM NOGAPS/NAVGEM EURO show Carib storm
EURO doesn't develop the same thing.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro




Looks like an abstract painting by an artist on chemical enhancers. I can't make out any geography at all under that mess. Could be Outer Mongolia for all I can see.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3153
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro



GFS CMC/GGEM NOGAPS/NAVGEM EURO show Carib storm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12808
12z Euro


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Soooooo, another year of the models agreeing to disagree?
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel3 min
From the NWS in Corpus Christi, a possible tornado on the ground near Victoria, TX: Link
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GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
Blog on the possibility of development in the NW Caribbean. Feel free to check it out. I am out for a while, bye.
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My blog about my high school graduation in few weeks, my future in Asheville, UNC-Asheville storm chasing team, my interview in school's yearbook, my hurricane season prediction, AND my tracking maps. I've worked very hard on this blog, as it took me two tries to finish it. Hope y'all enjoy it!

My blog: Link
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12z Euro..well its official..4 major models with the Euro going west..LOL

Images are not posting on allan's site
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I see we now have three invests in the ENPacifc probably only one or two will develop.See you later my friends as the biggest parade and carnival in northern Honduras is going to start.
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GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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