NOAA, TSR, UKMET, PSU, WSI, and WU Community Predict Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:11 PM GMT on May 24, 2013

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NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their May 23 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 205% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16.5 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 162% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. Only five seasons since the active hurricane period that began in 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Sandy was the only other major Atlantic hurricane of 2012. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were 0.4°C above average, and were 0.33°C above the oceans in the remainder of the global tropics. Long-range seasonal computer model forecasts predict a continuation of above-average SSTs in the MDR during much of hurricane season.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

3) No El Niño event is expected this year. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Neutral conditions have been present since last summer, and are predicted to remain neutral through hurricane season by most of the El Niño computer forecast models.

NOAA said, "This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2013 hurricane season could see activity comparable to some of the very active seasons since 1995." NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts. These models include the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model CM2.1, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model, the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office model, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble.


Figure 2. Graphic from the 2013 NOAA Atlantic hurricane season forecast highlighting the reasons for this year's anticipated active character.

How accurate are NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 3. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) for the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2003-2012, as a function of lead time. Forecast precision is assessed using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) which is the percentage improvement in mean square error over a climatology forecast (six hurricanes in a given year.) Positive skill indicates that the model performs better than climatology, while a negative skill indicates that it performs worse than climatology. Two different climatologies are used: a fixed 50-year (1950-1999) climatology, and a running prior 10-year climate norm. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May, and CSU stopped providing quantitative extended-range December hurricane outlooks in 2011. Skill climbs as the hurricane season approaches, with modest skill levels by early June, and good skill levels by early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

TSR predicts an active hurricane season: 15.3 named storms
The May 24 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 15.3 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 3.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--11% - 25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 63% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 21% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these late May forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 8% - 12% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and slower than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.

UKMET office predicts a slightly above normal Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.

WSI predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The April 8 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for an active season with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

Penn State predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

The wunderground community predicts an active hurricane season: 17 named storms
Over 100 members of the wunderground community have submitted their seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are compiled on trHUrrIXC5MMX's blog. The April 28 version of this list called for an average of 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. This list will be updated by June 3, so get your forecasts in by then! As usual, I am abstaining from making a hurricane season forecast. I figure there's no sense making a forecast that will be wrong nearly half the time; I prefer to stick to higher-probability forecasts.



NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 13.5 named storms
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2013, there has already been one named storm. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 2 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

The week ahead: 91E, and a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
We're already behind last year's pace for named storms in both the Atlantic (where Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19, and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26), and in the Eastern Pacific, where Bud formed on May 21 (the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm.) The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific. The MJO is relatively weak, but is helping boost the chances that Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific will develop. On Friday, NHC was giving 91E a 20% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models were predicting that a weak circulation off the coast of Costa Rica, well east of the separate circulation currently called 91E, could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This system is a threat to spread heavy rains to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Guatemala on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS model is showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.) The prospects for an early June named storm in the Atlantic are probably above average, though, given that the MJO may be active in the Atlantic during the first week of June.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Good evening/night friends!
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91E and the Nicaragua disturbance are gaining more vorticity in the 850 mb level over the past several hours on the latest CIMSS analysis. The other tropical disturbance between those two is expected to be used as energy for both of the stronger systems. 0z GFS forecasts two strong disturbances to become weak tropical cyclones by the next few days.

Now:



About 24 hours ago:



0z GFS at 66 hours:

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We can debate which storm was worst, etc, etc - fact is, they're all bad, maybe each in their own way. Property is one thing, but even a single life lost is tragic. So, in that sense they're all devastating.

And, the NHC can call Katrina a land-falling Cat 3 storm all they want, and by true measurements it may have been, but by any reasonable measure from anyone remotely affected, the storm was a major BA, a BA by comparison to any storm! There were 130 mph winds 150 miles inland, and she exited the northeast part of the state nearly 400 miles inland still a Cat 1 hurricane.

That's a BA storm by any measure!
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Quoting JRRP:


Very intense convection there but for sure it will diminuish a lot as time goes by. Right now there are no waves in the charts but we may see very soon the third one of 2013.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
656. txjac
If there's anyone on from the San Antonio area, sending postive thoughts your way and hope that you and your families are safe.

Dead 2, 200 rescued so far

Stay safe
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655. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting opal92nwf:

I think there is definitely a difference in the wind damage with Camille and Andrew. As described in that article, there were mobile homes near the point of landfall in Camille that were still basically fully intact. I think the winds were well below Cat. 5 strength in Camille.


I beg to differ with that .. I was there there were no housing intact near landfall of any kind ..
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good night all - Camille and Andrew and Georges were not nice rides. Glad I was only brushed by Katrina, Ike, and Wilma.

eve - "over and out"
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653. JRRP
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Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Camille (MS, 1969) broke the equipment at Keesler Air Force Base (home of the Hurricane Hunters) in Biloxi, MS when her winds reached somewhere around 205 to 210 mph. So we'll really never know just how high her winds were.

Category 5 is as high as it gets. Maximum sustained winds over 155 mph are category 5. It is hard for the storms to maintain that kind of intensity for long lengths of time, so there really isn't any need for another category after 5.


Category info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml


Camille ... I don't need to be reminded, but perhaps others need to, nevertheless - thanks and take care.

I ... wel
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Quoting opal92nwf:

It's been since Charley that we have had a storm that is both:

1. Category 4+
2. Not weakening at landfall

I still consider Andrew to have the worst damage from any hurricane considering the damage was just as worse relatively far inland. It really makes a difference when the hurricane is not weakening at landfall as the wind damage seems to be worse with those "mini streaks" seen in Andrew and other storms like Celia in 1970.

Of all the hurricanes, I would be most scared to be caught in the eyewall of Andrew, nothing compares with this ^^ (at least wind wise)
What about 1935 Labor Day storm? It was pretty bad, although buildings are weaker back in time and winds might be overestimated. It was also strengthening at landfall.
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Good Night All - Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay High and Dry - Keep Warm
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Storm Surge Scales and Storm Surge Forecasting



1.L. Kantha, 2006 in EOS.

2.M. D. Powell and T. A. Reinhold, 2007 in Bulletin American Meteorological Society.

3.E. S. Blake and colleagues, 2007 in NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC 5.


During the open public comment period for the draft of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, many people suggested that the National Weather Service develop a storm surge specific scale as well as improve its forecasting of storm surge. It is acknowledged that there are some researchers who advocate developing another scale for hurricanes specifically geared toward storm surge impact1,2
by incorporating aspects of the system's size.

However, the National Hurricane Center does not believe that such scales would be helpful or effective at conveying the storm surge threat. For example, if 2008's Hurricane Ike had made landfall in
Palm Beach, Florida, the resulting storm surge would have been only 8', rather than the 20' that
occurred where Ike actually made landfall on the upper Texas coast. These greatly differing surge impacts arise from differences in the local bathymetry (the shallow Gulf waters off of Texas enhance storm surge while the deep ocean depths off of southeastern Florida inhibit surge).

The proposed storm surge scales that consider storm size do not consider these local factors that play a crucial role in determining actual surge impacts.
The National Weather Service believes that a better approach is to focus directly on conveying the depth of inundation expected at the coast and inland. Because storm surgeinduced flooding has killed more people in the United States in hurricanes than all other hurricane-related threats (freshwater flooding, winds, and tornadoes) combined since 1900
, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is working to enhance the analysis and prediction of storm surge.
Direct estimates of inundation are being communicated in the NHC's Public Advisories and in the Weather Forecast Office's Hurricane Local Statements. New ways of communicating the threat have also been developed. NHC's probabilistic storm surge
product, which provides the likelihood of storm surge values from 2 through 25 feet, became operational in 2009, and the NWS's Meteorological Development Laboratory is providing experimental, probabilistic storm surge exceedance products for 2010. In addition, coastal WFOs will provide experimental Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics in 2010;

these include a qualitative graphic on the expected storm surge impacts. Finally, the NWS is exploring the possibility of issuing explicit Storm Surge Warnings, and such warnings could be implemented
in the next couple of years. In all of these efforts, the NWS is working to provide specific and quantitative information to support decision-making at the local level.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Hurricane Camille (MS, 1969) broke the equipment at Keesler Air Force Base (home of the Hurricane Hunters) in Biloxi, MS when her winds reached somewhere around 205 to 210 mph. So we'll really never know just how high her winds were.

Category 5 is as high as it gets. Maximum sustained winds over 155 mph are category 5. It is hard for the storms to maintain that kind of intensity for long lengths of time, so there really isn't any need for another category after 5.


Category info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Patrap:
Department of Agriculture

A Lady Called Camille




That lady at 10:06 always startles me
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Cat size numbers are the poorest way,scale wise to measure any Hurricane Landfall impact.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Still technically a Category 5, but we'll see if they downgrade it in future. Didn't realized there's papers about Camille not being 190 mph freak of nature. Basically, Camille did what Katrina did in 2005... going from Category 5 down to Category 3 or 4 before landfall (Katrina down to Cat. 3).

I think there is definitely a difference in the wind damage with Camille and Andrew. As described in that article, there were mobile homes near the point of landfall in Camille that were still basically fully intact. I think the winds were well below Cat. 5 strength in Camille.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Who remembers this one?



Alberto from 2000?
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Quoting washingtonian115:


I wonder if'll be seeing one of these guys this year with all the doom forecast out...








It's been since Charley that we have had a storm that is both:

1. Category 4+
2. Not weakening at landfall

I still consider Andrew to have the worst damage from any hurricane considering the damage was just as worse relatively far inland. It really makes a difference when the hurricane is not weakening at landfall as the wind damage seems to be worse with those "mini streaks" seen in Andrew and other storms like Celia in 1970.

Of all the hurricanes, I would be most scared to be caught in the eyewall of Andrew, nothing compares with this ^^ (at least wind wise)
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Hurricane Alberto 2000
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Who remembers this one?



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Quoting opal92nwf:

Great website and great article

Hurricane Camille was not a Category 5 at Landfall
Still technically a Category 5, but we'll see if they downgrade it in future. Didn't realized there's papers about Camille not being 190 mph freak of nature. Basically, Camille did what Katrina did in 2005... going from Category 5 down to Category 3 or 4 before landfall (Katrina down to Cat. 3).
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Camille Imagery







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Department of Agriculture

A Lady Called Camille



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I meant rare US landfall as Category 5. My bad. There's only three Cat. 5 at landfall (1935 Labor Day, Camille, and Andrew). Not too many hit other Atlantic countries as Category 5 either (about 10 or so).

Great website and great article

Hurricane Camille was not a Category 5 at Landfall
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Quoting daddyjames:
Good afternoon.

Gotta question . . .
is the formation of a mesocyclone/tornado an example of a positive feedback loop? You have rotating winds in a thunderstorm that lowers pressure, and the lower pressure causes increased windspeed as air rushes in to fill the void? And these two factors (in some instances) feed into one another?


Was this a silly question? Or, could someone point me to a reference that I may consult?

Thanks.
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Forget what I asked.... silly me.

Im off, Gnite
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Well why do you stress on the US?
Many others have in other locations more recently
I meant rare US landfall as Category 5. My bad. There's only three Cat. 5 at landfall (1935 Labor Day, Camille, and Andrew). Not too many hit other Atlantic countries as Category 5 either (about 10 or so).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Well why do you stress on the US?
Many others have in other locations more recently


Well, for all general intensive purposes, the general feel of the discussion was on the U.S., specifically Miami. A Cat 5 is itself rare for the U.S., imagine what one of Katrina/Ike/Sandy size would do to a city such as Houston/New Orleans/ or perhaps a east coast city.
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6 years ago both Dean and Felix were cat 5's when they made landfall..however it was in central america not the U.S.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Um, well, count how many Cat 5s have directly impacted the U.S. at that intensity in the last 20 years.


Well why do you stress on the US?
Many others have in other locations more recently
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The Edwards Aquifer has risen nearly seven feet today!

Link
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What do you mean by "rare"?


Um, well, count how many Cat 5s have directly impacted the U.S. at that intensity in the last 20 years.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I really hope not... Andrew was a rare Category 5 at landfall.


What do you mean by "rare"?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I really hope not... Andrew was a rare Category 5 at landfall.
It happened once and it can happen again..Miami was lucky but if this beast was right on top of them..that's all she wrote.
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Quoting washingtonian115:


I wonder if'll be seeing one of these guys this year with all the doom forecast out...







I really hope not... Andrew was a rare Category 5 at landfall.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Improved computer models helping forecasters better predict hurricane strength

Link
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Andrew is also a good example of what high pressure environments can do with storms..make them smaller..and during low pressure events the storms are bigger like Ike.
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Asto... (that) was a mistake, phones fault
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...
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT/SOUTHERN ND/WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 217...

VALID 260148Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 217 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 217 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN/NORTHERN SD INTO SOUTHERN ND. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH /OR EXTENSION/ MIGHT BE
WARRANTED BEYOND 04Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD.

DISCUSSION...ALONG AN ANGLING ROUGHLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL ZONE...SCATTERED SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SOME SUPERCELLS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHWEST SD...IN ADDITION TO NEAR
THE RAPID CITY AREA ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS AS OF 0130Z. BASED ON
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM GLASGOW MT/RAPID CITY SD AND
SUPPLEMENTAL SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...MLCAPE GENERALLY RANGES FROM
1000-1750 J/KG WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR COINCIDENT WITH 45-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SCENARIO WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO /ROUGHLY THROUGH 03Z/ ESPECIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE RAPID
CITY AREA/EASTWARD ALONG THE I-90 VICINITY. IN THIS
CORRIDOR...FACTORS SUCH AS NOCTURNALLY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
CINH WILL BE OFFSET BY LOWERING TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WITH A
BACKING/STRENGTHENING TREND WELL NOTED IN RECENT RAPID CITY WSR-88D
VWP DATA /30 KT AROUND 1 KM/.

MEANWHILE...A WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED
SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES CONTINUES TO MAKE A MODEST EASTWARD MOTION
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ND /NEARING THE MISSOURI RIVER AND BISMARCK AREA
AT 0130Z/ AND NORTHERN SD. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE SHORT-TERM AND/OR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MCS SOUTHERN FLANK ACROSS NORTHERN ND...WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
LOCATED PROGRESSIVELY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2013


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ohhh right... so you're done now?...
You'll be here full time now...that is a good thing..... (maybenotsomuch).
Anyway, good


What do you mean Max? -_-
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Quoting vis0:



If someone told you that you'll get 1 false alarm a year to save your life, i ask yourself is it worth it. Well as to so called NWS (NHC) false alarms and TS its about 1 every ~4 years (50 yr avg)

THAT STATED, what we need are ideas as what i sent The Weather Channel in the 1990s.
i sent many ideas including what i call TS wind deflectors which protect homes without the use
of nails or other destructive to home processes. Destructive as nail make holes in homes structures.


Since i promised just yesterday not to post my ideas/theories on science on other's blogs
due to complaints here just a sketch in words NOT OF MY SCIENCE THEORIES but invention to help people..

Pole anchors are set deep into the ground in front of home's windows. If the public wants these
anchors can be inspected once every ~3 years to make sure they withstand cat 5+ hurricanes.

What is the purpose of these deep in the ground pole anchors?

The public can buy specially designed poles that fit into these anchors.

If they buy them they should get a better insurance rate.

The poles have a special design & a strong plastic designed curve(s) to deflect wind and
objects away from the window & home. The design i sent The Weather Channel is its
strong point as it causes deflected winds to become so penta-turbulent to be detrimental
to tornado development. The more homes that have this the less of a chance of a TS
(Tropical Storm) spawned tornado hitting developed areas.This is 'cause TS spawned
tornadoes are usually not higher than F3 (EF3, Enhanced Fujita scale(s) used to determine
Tornadoes force damage)

Since these anchors are built in front of the home's weak points (doors,windows,hinged openings)
then the deflector poles purpose is to strengthen those weak points by deflecting on coming
winds in such a manner that the man deflected winds hinder straight on TS winds thus winds coming in
contact with homes are 10% to 25%* weaker than the winds just a hundred feet away from the homes,
again because of the way the curves are twisted on the deflectors.

The designs sent to The Weather Channel if tested shows how the stronger the on coming winds
the more they are deflected, hence the saying:

Remember never go against nature dance with her.

Same as to the idea to prevent HOMES from flooding, one can;t stop communities from flooding as to REAL BIG FLOODS but one can easily prevent homes from flooding if one tries the floating damn idea sent to twch. It AGAIN dances with nature. i saw a year or so ago a young lady present a almost similar idea in getting a scholarship for it, so look her idea up. If NWS service wants it perfected just ask The Weather Channel for the design i sent it in the 1990s.
When i sent my ideas i stated it for human kind, thus free

Ok?...
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting Astrometeor:


I don't know, I just posted a graphic for today's storms.

Oh, and BTW Max, I should be on the blogs full time now, thanks to school being over!!!


Ohhh right... so you're done now?...
You'll be here full time now...that is a good thing..... (maybenotsomuch).
Anyway, good
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873


I wonder if'll be seeing one of these guys this year with all the doom forecast out...







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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


That is what Im asking you


I don't know, I just posted a graphic for today's storms.

Oh, and BTW Max, I should be on the blogs full time now, thanks to school being over!!!
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Waiting for ONE day of rain to show up on the 10 day forecast..... "sigh"

Hmm I see why we have been getting so much rain lately
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Live: Flooding in Texas Claims Two Lives

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
May 25, 2013; 4:45 PM

For the second time in less than 24 hours, thunderstorms are drenching San Antonio and leading to life-threatening flooding.
A woman drowned when she was swept from the roof of her vehicle during a water rescue. A second person downed when their vehicle was swept into a drainage ditch by flood waters.
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613. vis0

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Thanks doc

From last blog



Look its too early to say. best thing to do is prep and watch, don't put anything into effect like shuttering up yet. we will most likely have to wait till we get an invest. models ain't that good till we got something to track.


If someone told you that you'll get 1 false alarm a year to save your life, i ask yourself is it worth it. Well as to so called NWS (NHC) false alarms and TS its about 1 every ~4 years (50 yr avg)

THAT STATED, what we need are ideas as what i sent The Weather Channel in the 1990s.
i sent many ideas including what i call TS wind deflectors which protect homes without the use
of nails or other destructive to home processes. Destructive as nail make holes in homes structures.


Since i promised just yesterday not to post my ideas/theories on science on other's blogs
due to complaints here just a sketch in words NOT OF MY SCIENCE THEORIES but invention to help people..

Pole anchors are set deep into the ground in front of home's windows. If the public wants these
anchors can be inspected once every ~3 years to make sure they withstand cat 5+ hurricanes.

What is the purpose of these deep in the ground pole anchors?

The public can buy specially designed poles that fit into these anchors.

If they buy them they should get a better insurance rate.

The poles have a special design & a strong plastic designed curve(s) to deflect wind and
objects away from the window & home. The design i sent The Weather Channel is its
strong point as it causes deflected winds to become so penta-turbulent to be detrimental
to tornado development. The more homes that have this the less of a chance of a TS
(Tropical Storm) spawned tornado hitting developed areas.This is 'cause TS spawned
tornadoes are usually not higher than F3 (EF3, Enhanced Fujita scale(s) used to determine
Tornadoes force damage)

Since these anchors are built in front of the home's weak points (doors,windows,hinged openings)
then the deflector poles purpose is to strengthen those weak points by deflecting on coming
winds in such a manner that the man deflected winds hinder straight on TS winds thus winds coming in
contact with homes are 10% to 25%* weaker than the winds just a hundred feet away from the homes,
again because of the way the curves are twisted on the deflectors.

The designs sent to The Weather Channel if tested shows how the stronger the on coming winds
the more they are deflected, hence the saying:

Remember never go against nature dance with her.

Same as to the idea to prevent HOMES from flooding, one can;t stop communities from flooding as to REAL BIG FLOODS but one can easily prevent homes from flooding if one tries the floating damn idea sent to twch. It AGAIN dances with nature. i saw a year or so ago a young lady present a almost similar idea in getting a scholarship for it, so look her idea up. If NWS service wants it perfected just ask The Weather Channel for the design i sent it in the 1990s.
When i sent my ideas i stated it for human kind, thus free
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS says we'll have Barbara by Tuesday.



GFS may be too aggressive as right now there are three lows competing to be which will dominate and try to develop and that could take a few days.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Quoting Astrometeor:


What's wrong Max?


That is what Im asking you
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Um ok...???


What's wrong Max?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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