NOAA, TSR, UKMET, PSU, WSI, and WU Community Predict Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:11 PM GMT on May 24, 2013

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NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their May 23 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 205% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16.5 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 162% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. Only five seasons since the active hurricane period that began in 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Sandy was the only other major Atlantic hurricane of 2012. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were 0.4°C above average, and were 0.33°C above the oceans in the remainder of the global tropics. Long-range seasonal computer model forecasts predict a continuation of above-average SSTs in the MDR during much of hurricane season.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

3) No El Niño event is expected this year. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Neutral conditions have been present since last summer, and are predicted to remain neutral through hurricane season by most of the El Niño computer forecast models.

NOAA said, "This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2013 hurricane season could see activity comparable to some of the very active seasons since 1995." NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts. These models include the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model CM2.1, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model, the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office model, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble.


Figure 2. Graphic from the 2013 NOAA Atlantic hurricane season forecast highlighting the reasons for this year's anticipated active character.

How accurate are NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 3. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) for the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2003-2012, as a function of lead time. Forecast precision is assessed using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) which is the percentage improvement in mean square error over a climatology forecast (six hurricanes in a given year.) Positive skill indicates that the model performs better than climatology, while a negative skill indicates that it performs worse than climatology. Two different climatologies are used: a fixed 50-year (1950-1999) climatology, and a running prior 10-year climate norm. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May, and CSU stopped providing quantitative extended-range December hurricane outlooks in 2011. Skill climbs as the hurricane season approaches, with modest skill levels by early June, and good skill levels by early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

TSR predicts an active hurricane season: 15.3 named storms
The May 24 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 15.3 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 3.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--11% - 25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 63% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 21% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these late May forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 8% - 12% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and slower than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.

UKMET office predicts a slightly above normal Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.

WSI predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The April 8 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for an active season with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

Penn State predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

The wunderground community predicts an active hurricane season: 17 named storms
Over 100 members of the wunderground community have submitted their seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are compiled on trHUrrIXC5MMX's blog. The April 28 version of this list called for an average of 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. This list will be updated by June 3, so get your forecasts in by then! As usual, I am abstaining from making a hurricane season forecast. I figure there's no sense making a forecast that will be wrong nearly half the time; I prefer to stick to higher-probability forecasts.



NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 13.5 named storms
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2013, there has already been one named storm. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 2 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

The week ahead: 91E, and a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
We're already behind last year's pace for named storms in both the Atlantic (where Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19, and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26), and in the Eastern Pacific, where Bud formed on May 21 (the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm.) The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific. The MJO is relatively weak, but is helping boost the chances that Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific will develop. On Friday, NHC was giving 91E a 20% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models were predicting that a weak circulation off the coast of Costa Rica, well east of the separate circulation currently called 91E, could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This system is a threat to spread heavy rains to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Guatemala on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS model is showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.) The prospects for an early June named storm in the Atlantic are probably above average, though, given that the MJO may be active in the Atlantic during the first week of June.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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New GFS has this in the bay of campeche at 162hrs.....

shoots NW as a weak low and crosses FL north of tampa...
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Quoting ncstorm:
06z Nogaps.

seems some of the models want to do an Allen Iverson "crossover" and send the Low over to the BOC..

last frame of the 180 hour run


#1387: ncstorm, that rain band in the model would fill up the Highland lakes or close in Austin. Happy Memorial day and thanks for that hopeful frame.. one million+
Central Texans would rejoice.
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1408. hydrus
.
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7 day rain total

Link NOAA Quad Cities, IA/IL
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1406. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MOC033-095-107-177-195-281500-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1000 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...MISSOURI RIVER NEAR NAPOLEON...WAVERLY

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CRESTS MAY VARY IF ACTUAL RAINFALL OR RUNOFF IS GREATER OR LESS THAN ANTICIPATED.

LOCATION: MISSOURI RIVER AT NAPOLEON
FLOOD STAGE: 17.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: NOT AVAILABLE
FORECAST CREST: 17.1 FEET SATURDAY JUN 01
AT 17.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS UNPROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD.

LOCATION: MISSOURI RIVER AT WAVERLY
FLOOD STAGE: 20.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 10.0 FEET AT 9 AM MONDAY
FORECAST CREST: 20.3 FEET SATURDAY JUN 01

LATER STATEMENTS...POSSIBLY WARNINGS...WILL BE ISSUED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
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Good Morning. I live in the Big Bend/Panhandle and am not concerned about a storm up in these parts at the moment in early June regardless of what some of the models might be saying................ :)

Another E-Pac system about to get going is the big picture at the moment and looks like it will be a doozy from the looks of it. I am going to stick with the assumption (my personal opinion only) that we will not see any significant activity in the Caribbean until things quiet down in the E-Pac which might take several weeks.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's hard to say, but I think that the energy comes from the Atlantic side. It "might" be associated with 92E as the GFS is showing that system making landfall a few days before this system begins to take shape in the Atlantic. As I've said so many times, consistency is key, and the GFS is starting to become consistent which is a good sign.


In this case the Euro is not needed for a consensus?
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1401. cg2916
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Quoting ncstorm:
7 day precip map

Quoting Luisport:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather5 min
A levee along Beaver Creek in Butler County, IA has failed and will impact the town of New Hartford this morning.
Anyone with more info on this?
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1399. bappit
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, going with climatology on something like a CV development in June is obviously the smarter decision. It just doesn't really happen this early.

Climatology is the benchmark for no skill. So I think saying the smart decision is climatology says a lot.
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1398. ncstorm
7 day precip map

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
945 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...


* UNTIL 345 PM CDT MONDAY

* AT 941 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT FLOOD WATERS FROM
BEAVER CREEK HAVE CAUSED A BREACH ALONG TERRACE AVENUE...
APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE WEST OF NEW HARTFORD. FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS EAST OF TERRACE AVENUE INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE TOWN OF NEW HARTFORD.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEW HARTFORD.

FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NEW HARTFORD. IF YOU
ARE THREATENED BY THESE FLOOD WATERS...SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL ONE...
ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&
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1396. hydrus
NAEFS is still showing two systems...Link
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1395. ncstorm
this is the latest from the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion..someone is talking about it now..

CANADIAN MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HERALD THE START OF THE ATLC BASIN
TROPICAL SEASON WITH VARIATIONS OF A SYSTEM SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
ERN GULF/SERN CONUS/WRN ATLC REGION. SUFFICIENTLY FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATE A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW THAT RESPECTIVE MEANS
DISPLAY NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURE.
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1394. ncstorm
The 00z Euro is showing nothing..

last frame..

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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather5 min
A levee along Beaver Creek in Butler County, IA has failed and will impact the town of New Hartford this morning.
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1392. ncstorm
Quoting hydrus:


seems South Florida is 'bought to get a lot of rain..
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1391. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's hard to say, but I think that the energy comes from the Atlantic side. It "might" be associated with 92E as the GFS is showing that system making landfall a few days before this system begins to take shape in the Atlantic. Consistency is key, and the GFS is starting to become consistent which is a good sign.

Thanks. Appreciate that.
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Quoting pottery:

So where does that come from ?
East or from the Pacific side ??


It's hard to say, but I think that the energy comes from the Atlantic side. It "might" be associated with 92E as the GFS is showing that system making landfall a few days before this system begins to take shape in the Atlantic. As I've said so many times, consistency is key, and the GFS is starting to become consistent which is a good sign.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24939
1389. hydrus
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Quoting ncstorm:
06z Nogaps.

seems some of the models want to do an Allen Iverson "crossover" and send the Low over to the BOC..

last frame of the 180 hour run

Well,the Gulf(sst)is above normal now!!
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1387. ncstorm
06z Nogaps.

seems some of the models want to do an Allen Iverson "crossover" and send the Low over to the BOC..

last frame of the 180 hour run
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1386. SLU
Quoting stormchaser19:


I'm not saying that this in particular will develop, just saying is really strange have this type of T.Wave so early in the season,therefore, i'm talking About late July (20th) to that is what I'm referring( To early CV)...Would be very strange see a CV storm or Hurricane this early...BTW someone knows when was the earliest CV hurricane or TS..TIA


The San Antonio Hurricane, also known as the St. Lucia Hurricane. On June 13, 1780 a hurricane "caused deaths and losses" on Puerto Rico, after having also struck St. Lucia, where it killed around 4,000 to 5,000. It later went on to the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane #2 1933



TS Ana 1979



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Quoting hydrus:
The model run are reminding me of 1966,s Alma.


would be epic, if the system can reach to that intensity!!!!!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.


wow...look at that high over the mid-atlantic...
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1383. SLU
Quoting SLU:
Real heavy stuff in Trinidad and Tobago this morning. Tobago just reported sustained winds of 32mph (10-min average) at 10am and a gust to 40mph an hour ago.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


The US vice president Joe Biden is due in Trinidad today. He's gonna get lots of showers of blessings Trini style.
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1382. hydrus
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.

The model run are reminding me of 1966,s Alma.
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Quoting Grothar:


I was in Pennsylvania last week and it was in the upper 80's and 90's, then dropped into the 30's. Very strange for this late in the season.


We went from 92 and storms on Wednesday to 33 degrees Friday morning a little south of PA. Our friends in Houtzdale, PA said they had frost Saturday morning. It was a strange weekend, but was a welcome change- now the heat is turned back up again.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

possibly check and find out how many CV storms we had in early June from '95-'12 and tell me please


I'm not saying that this in particular will develop, just saying is really strange have this type of T.Wave so early in the season,therefore, i'm talking About late July (20th) to that is what I'm referring( To early CV)...Would be very strange see a CV storm or Hurricane this early...BTW someone knows when was the earliest CV hurricane or TS..TIA
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1379. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not saying it's going to happen.But sometimes climatology doesn't apply.I remember this from doc's old blogs


"this is the 2005 season these rules don't apply here"

I think he said that last year as well for the 2012 season at some point in time.

True.
Especially as the Climate changes, and the parameters shift around.

We have never been here before......
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not saying it's going to happen.But sometimes climatology doesn't apply.I remember this from doc's old blogs


"this is the 2005 season these rules don't apply here"

I think he said that last year as well for the 2012 season at some point in time.


Lol. True! Let's hope we don't have one of those seasons.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
the system the gfs is showing is a broad low pressure that is monsoonal and also pieces coming from the east pacific. that tends to lead to a large and messy storm. the pattern however does favor the first named storm of the atlantic basin to form sometime in early june in the caribbean.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, going with climatology on something like a CV development in June is obviously the smarter decision. It just doesn't really happen this early.
I'm not saying it's going to happen.But sometimes climatology doesn't apply.I remember this from doc's old blogs


"this is the 2005 season these rules don't apply here"

I think he said that last year as well for the 2012 season at some point in time.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19160
invest 92 E moving more north
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1374. ncstorm




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Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what we said in 2010..and we got a near tropical depression in the Atlantic..


Well, going with climatology on something like a CV development in June is obviously the smarter decision. It just doesn't really happen this early.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
1372. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

a bit of both from monsoon trof down SE and from 92E
kinda Alma/Arthur situation E Pac crossing over to Caribbean

Thanks.
See post 1368, wind reports from Tobago.
I'm going to keep watching this Blob.....
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1371. SLU
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

possibly check and find out how many CV storms we had in early June from '95-'12 and tell me please


Zero but there were tropical depressions there in June 2000 and 2003 which did not make it to TS strength ... not to mention the "unnamed" TS at least in my books that formed in the CATL in June 2010 that the NHC didn't classify.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, a lot would have to change shear-wise for the CV season to get an early jump. However, as you showed yesterday, the long range GFS drops shear in the MDR well below normal. However, that could just be GFS-fantasy. We'll see, but obviously any CV-wave development would definitely be against climatology in June.
That's what we said in 2010..and we got a near tropical depression in the Atlantic..
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1369. Grothar
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1368. SLU
Real heavy stuff in Trinidad and Tobago this morning. Tobago just reported sustained winds of 32mph (10-min average) at 10am and a gust to 40mph an hour ago.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting pottery:

So where does that come from ?
East or from the Pacific side ??

a bit of both from monsoon trof down SE and from 92E
kinda Alma/Arthur situation E Pac crossing over to Caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13577
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
How rare or common was this San Antonio flood?

Somewhat uncommon, but not as rare as you would think. Locations along the Balconies Escarpment such as Austin and San Antonio are sometimes referred to as Flash Flood Alley due to the magnitude of the rainfall events that have occurred there historically.

Link
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1365. pottery
Quoting Grothar:



I think we may be doing a lot of hummmmmm, this season. I hope the predictions are wrong, but it looks like the long range forecasters have been doing quite well so far.


Indeed !
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1364. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Touche' ! :):))

Doing very well, all things considered.
Looking at the various forecasts and predictions, and the current overall set-up and thinking "Hmmmmm...."

... which clearly shows a firm and unwavering opinion based on my unique understanding of these things, dont you think ?



I think we may be doing a lot of hummmmmm, this season. I hope the predictions are wrong, but it looks like the long range forecasters have been doing quite well so far.
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Quoting stormchaser19:



Seems, like you said yesterday,92e will transfer a lot of energy to system in western carribean, BTW looks how vigorous is the wave that is leaving Africa...Early CV season?


Well, a lot would have to change shear-wise for the CV season to get an early jump. However, as you showed yesterday, the long range GFS drops shear in the MDR well below normal. However, that could just be GFS-fantasy. We'll see, but obviously any CV-wave development would definitely be against climatology in June.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10285
1362. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quite a massive tropical cyclone being portrayed by the GFS by 240 hours.

So where does that come from ?
East or from the Pacific side ??
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Quoting stormchaser19:



Seems, like you said yesterday,92e will transfer a lot of energy to system in western carribean, BTW looks how vigorous is the wave that is leaving Africa...Early CV season?

possibly check and find out how many CV storms we had in early June from '95-'12 and tell me please
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13577
1360. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
My weather has been beautiful Gro although a little on the chilly side for this time of year.By the middle of the week we'll be talking about 80's and then by Thursday we'll be talking about 90's.


I was in Pennsylvania last week and it was in the upper 80's and 90's, then dropped into the 30's. Very strange for this late in the season.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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