Moore Tornado an EF-5; $2 Billion Damage Estimate: 3rd Costliest Tornado in History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

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The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 is now ranked an EF-5, making it one of only 59 U.S. tornadoes to achieve that distinction since record keeping began in 1950. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma announced Tuesday that their damage survey teams found an area of EF-5 damage near Briarwood Elementary School, with winds of 200 - 210 mph indicated. There were no EF-5 tornadoes observed in 2012, and the last time the U.S. had an EF-5 was on May 24, 2011, when the Oklahoma towns of Calumet, El Reno, Piedmont, and Guthrie were hit by an EF-5 with 210+ mph winds that killed nine people. The maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was a huge 1.3 miles. Detailed damage survey information in Google Earth Format provided by the Norman, OK NWS office shows that the typical width of the EF-0 and greater damage swath was about 0.6 miles, and the EF-4 damage area was about 0.1 miles across at its widest. EF-4 damage occurred along approximately 4 miles of the tornado's 17-mile long path. The damage swath from the May 20, 2013 tornado as it cut through the most densely built up portions of Moore was roughly 1.5 times as wide as the one from the May 3, 1999 EF-5 tornado. That tornado was the 4th costliest in history ($1.4 billion 2011 dollars), so it is a good bet that the 2013 Moore tornado will end up being even more expensive. This morning, the Oklahoma Insurance Department said the preliminary tornado damage estimate could top $2 billion. This would make the 2013 Moore tornado the 2nd most expensive tornado in history (as ranked by NOAA/SPC) or 3rd most expensive (as ranked by insurance broker Aon Benfield.) The nine billion-dollar tornadoes (2013 dollars) are:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.9 billion
2) Tuscaloosa, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $2.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
3) Moore, Oklahoma, May 20, 2013, $2 billion
4) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.8 billion
5) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 1970, $1.5 billion
6) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
7) Hackleburg, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $1.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
8) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
9) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion


Figure 1. The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)


Figure 2. The damage swath of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013. EF-4 damage (red colors) occurred along roughly 4 miles of the 17-mile path, and the EF-4 damage swath was up to 0.1 miles wide. The tornado's maximum width of 1.3 miles (EF-0 and greater damage) occurred over a relatively small portion of the path, before the storm reached Moore. Image credit: NWS Norman.


Figure 3. On May 20, 2013, a supercell thunderstorm in central Oklahoma spawned a destructive tornado that passed just south of Oklahoma City. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this natural-color image of the storm system at 2:40 p.m. Central Daylight Time (19:40 Universal Time), just minutes before the devastating twister began. The red line on the image depicts the tornado’s track. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

There have been bigger tornadoes
The 1.3 mile maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was not a record. Wikipedia documents that the EF-3 Edmonson, Texas tornado of May 31, 1968 had a damage path width between 2 and 3 miles (3.2 and 4.8 km) wide. The EF-4 Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska tornado on May 22, 2004 was of similar size, with a damage path up to 2.5 miles wide. Doppler radar measurements indicate that the May 4, 1999 Mulhall, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado--which thankfully passed mostly over farmland--would have caused damage over a path 4 miles wide at its peak size, had it encountered a built-up area. The EF-5 tornado that devastated Greensburg, Kansas on May 4, 2007 was 1.7 miles wide.


Figure 4. Damage swath of the Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska EF-4 tornado of May 22, 2004 was up to 2.5 miles wide, making it one of the largest tornadoes on record.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 22, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. You can follow today's severe weather from our Severe Weather page.

No tornadoes reported on Tuesday; "Slight Risk" of severe weather on Wednesday
The severe weather outbreak of May 18 - 22 peaked on Sunday and Monday. We did not record any tornadoes on Tuesday, though there were many reports of large hail and damaging winds, including three thunderstorms with wind gusts over 74 mph. Tuesday was the first day since May 14 that no tornadoes were recorded in the U.S. And after issuing four consecutive "Moderate Risk" outlooks for severe weather, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is going with only a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Wednesday in the U.S., with the main severe weather action expected to affect portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. The primary threat will be straight-line wind damage and large hail, though we can't rule out a few tornadoes. During the three-day period May 18 - May 20, 70 tornadoes (preliminary) were recorded by SPC.


Video 1. Charles Cook caught the birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado at Newcastle, OK. It moved from there to Moore where it caused catastrophic devastation.


Video 2. NOAA's GOES-East satellite collected this view of the storm system that spawned a deadly tornado over Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013. The animation runs from 10:45 a.m. through 6:45 p.m., Central Daylight Time. Images courtesy NASA GOES Project Science: ‪http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/‬

The Norman, OK NWS office has an excellent page with detailed info on the Moore tornado.

I did a 10-minute Skype interview with democracynow.org on Tuesday morning, discussing the Moore tornado.

I greatly appreciate all the valuable links members of the WU community have posted here, and I have used many of them in my posts over the past day. Keep up the great work!

How to help
Portlight Strategies, an organization that supports disaster victims with disabilities, will be working with shelter operators and disability stakeholder organizations in Oklahoma to serve the needs of people with disabilities. Further information and how to offer additional support can be found on their website.

Donations can be made to American Red Cross disaster relief at redcross.org/weather or by texting WEATHER to 90999 to donate $10.

Donations can be made on The Salvation Army's website or by texting STORM to 80888 to donate $10. You can also call to make donations of other monetary amounts at (800) 725-2769.

Jeff Masters

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967. oracle28
5:17 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting oracle28:


Law changed in 1968. Don't be so conservative.

I kid, I kid. My grandfather served in WWII. The greatest generation, for sure
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
966. oracle28
5:16 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)


Law changed in 1968. Don't be so conservative.

I kid, I kid.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
965. oracle28
5:12 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting seminolesfan:

Its crazy, right? Its almost like the long range(over 100 hrs) models are just guessing at the outcome!

Like they are not really very accurate at ALL and are almost just a mirage.

Its a wonder why sooo many people get soooo ga-ga over super long range model predictions, right?!?


At least we can say with absolutely certainty that the Earth is warmed by man's activities and sea level will rise in the next 20 years. For certain.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
964. Luisport
4:20 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Torito:
Moore tornado

Quoting wxmod:
From www.rt.com

"Russia to evacuate Arctic floating research laboratory as ice melts

"Russia has ordered the urgent evacuation of the 16 crewmembers of a drifting Arctic research station, after the ice floe that hosts the floating laboratory began to disintegrate. Natural Resources and Ecology Minister Sergey Donskoy on Thursday set a three-day deadline to draft a plan to evacuate the North Pole-40 floating research station. %u201CThe ice is disintegrating,%u201D AFP quoted a ministry spokesperson as saying. %u201CCracks appeared in the floe.%u201D If the situation is not addressed, it may also result in the loss of equipment and contaminate the environment near Canada's economic zone."

MODIS satellite photo

Can you post the article link please? Thank's!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
963. Torito
4:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Moore tornado

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
962. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
961. wxmod
4:02 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
From www.rt.com

"Russia to evacuate Arctic floating research laboratory as ice melts

"Russia has ordered the urgent evacuation of the 16 crewmembers of a drifting Arctic research station, after the ice floe that hosts the floating laboratory began to disintegrate. Natural Resources and Ecology Minister Sergey Donskoy on Thursday set a three-day deadline to draft a plan to evacuate the North Pole-40 floating research station. %u201CThe ice is disintegrating,%u201D AFP quoted a ministry spokesperson as saying. %u201CCracks appeared in the floe.%u201D If the situation is not addressed, it may also result in the loss of equipment and contaminate the environment near Canada's economic zone."

MODIS satellite photo

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752
960. ScottLincoln
4:01 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting opal92nwf:
I don't understand how there was bare slabs of foundations with the debris completely swept away (which I thought was considered EF5 damage) just immediately south of Plaza Towers Elem. school, and the only EF5 damage they site is at the Briarwood school. Does anyone have an explanation?

According to the new EF-scale, homes of typical construction that are completely destroyed with all walls removed down to the slab is estimated as 200mph winds. EF5 damage starts at 201mph. Homes must have signs of higher-than-typical construction for them to be classified as EF5.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/2.html

Similar situation for elementary schools. The Briarwood school is relatively new and they likely found evidence that it was built far above code and better than typical construction such that it's damage was caused by winds near the upper bound for the degree of damage sustained.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/15.html
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
959. Torito
3:59 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Jeff Masters at 18:35 :D

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
958. ScottLincoln
3:57 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
You misunderstand; no offense was intended. I wasn't trying to turn this into a theological debate; I was merely responding to a suggestion that the church building was spared by divine intervention by saying that if that were so, I wish the divine intervener would have steered the tornado into the church and away from the kids. (Or, better yet, not have spun up an EF-5 tornado and plowed it through a populated area in the first place.)

And the original insinuation that the tornado changed direction at a church is stemming from preliminary survey tracks. If you really dig into the data, you can see that some of the survey points do not line up perfectly with the structures discussed. Also of note, you can see the delineations of damage do not match perfectly to the satellite pictures.
The track still needs clean-up, and is generalized more for the city scale, yet people are trying to analyze direction changes at the neighboorhood scale that amount to nothing more than a vertex in a polygon outline.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
957. Torito
3:56 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
956. Torito
3:53 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
It's too quiet here...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
955. Neapolitan
3:53 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting K8eCane:



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me
You misunderstand; no offense was intended. I wasn't trying to turn this into a theological debate; I was merely responding to a suggestion that the church building was spared by divine intervention by saying that if that were so, I wish the divine intervener would have steered the tornado into the church and away from the kids. (Or, better yet, not have spun up an EF-5 tornado and plowed it through a populated area in the first place.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
954. opal92nwf
3:53 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
I don't understand how there was bare slabs of foundations with the debris completely swept away (which I thought was considered EF5 damage) just immediately south of Plaza Towers Elem. school, and the only EF5 damage they site is at the Briarwood school. Does anyone have an explanation?
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2535
953. hurricanes2018
3:51 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
what is the color red mean??
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 20165
952. yonzabam
3:51 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Levi32:
The 700mb-500mb layer is super-adiabatic in Amarillo. Could get nasty in northern TX this afternoon if the inversion is broken.



Nasty, as in 'tornadoes', or just severe thunderstorms?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2918
951. daddyjames
3:48 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


I can count the number of times I've been in a hailstorm on my two hands. We get it more often in Fairbanks, but most of the time the storms aren't deep enough to produce. I haven't seen hail in Norman yet, but I'm sure I will soon enough. Next week looks like it might get bad.


Oh, don't say that :(

Believe it or not, more afraid of the hail than I am of the tornadoes . . . because of the probabilities of experiencing it.

You enjoy - just don't stand outside too long during it :D
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
950. Levi32
3:48 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
The 700mb-500mb layer is super-adiabatic in Amarillo. Could get nasty in northern TX this afternoon if the inversion is broken.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
949. yonzabam
3:47 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Torito:
Carribbean still on track to have an above average hurricane season.



I'll believe that when I see an above average vertical instability graph.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2918
948. barbamz
3:47 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, for those that missed the updated google earth map earlier today

Link


Hmm, this link doesn't work for me. Perhaps this one is better?
http://google.org/crisismap/2013-oklahoma-tornado
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5914
947. calkevin77
3:46 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting pcola57:
Todays Updated Drought Monitor..



12 Week animation for comparison..



Hopefully some precip in that area will add to the bucket.

Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
946. CybrTeddy
3:45 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting seminolesfan:

Care to post any model verifications to support this statement?
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.


Hypothetically speaking, if a major hurricane were to hit the United States in the time period you're here would you be required to visit the damage area as well?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23880
945. moonlightcowboy
3:45 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROF E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE IVORY AND GRAIN COASTS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N15W TO 1N27W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
944. HurricaneDean07
3:45 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Tension, Arguing, Religion, Preaching, etc. etc. Think I picked the wrong day to be on here...

Agreed.

Ill be making a blog post tonight, I think.
Be back later.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
943. daddyjames
3:44 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting K8eCane:



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me


Totally uncalled for - you may have your differences with Nea, but over the line - as you acknowledge.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
942. FunnelVortex
3:44 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Tension, Arguing, Religion, Preaching, etc. etc. Think I picked the wrong day to be on here...


Thank Nea.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
941. Levi32
3:43 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting daddyjames:


Yes, it is.

Do you get hail quite often up in Alaska? I find the lightning here unimpressive (I'm originally from SoFl) but the hail is absolutely amazing to me - well, unless its bouncing off my car.


I can count the number of times I've been in a hailstorm on my two hands. We get it more often in Fairbanks, but most of the time the storms aren't deep enough to produce. I haven't seen hail in Norman yet, but I'm sure I will soon enough. Next week looks like it might get bad.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
940. Astrometeor
3:43 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Welcome to the lower 48, Levi.

During heavy thunderstorms, there are sometimes two bolts every second, strong winds, and rain so heavy you cant make out the features on the house across the street!


Had one of those coming home with my father once. Dad was like, "Well, someone is going to have to get the dog."
And he said it in such a way that I immediately knew that the "someone" was me.

I put on a jacket, was only in the rain for <30 seconds, and I still got drenched to the bone. And with lightning crashing all around, too. Thanks Dad. -_-
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10225
939. Torito
3:43 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
SST Has been about .2 degrees colder for a while now, even though it isnt much different.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
937. schistkicker
3:41 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting K8eCane:


And let me clarify. This by no means says that I am glad or not very upset that it hit the schools. Don't twist my words.


If you ask people not to twist your words after making a post where you twist someone else's, does that make it a double-knot of irony?
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
936. Torito
3:40 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Carribbean still on track to have an above average hurricane season.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
935. HurricaneDean07
3:40 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I checked again, the development is at 300... sorry guys.

But in the meantime. An epac landfaller below 200.


Ok. Then that would make your last comment valid. I do agree that anything past 10 days is la la land. But it still should be monitored, because its not very often that all models agree on development and then not get, at the very least, a low that attempts to develop.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
934. Torito
3:38 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Development chance in the purple area moved up again from 2% to 4-6%.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
933. K8eCane
3:36 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting K8eCane:



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me


And let me clarify. This by no means says that I am glad or not very upset that it hit the schools. Don't twist my words.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3098
932. Torito
3:34 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Patrap:


LOL told ya xD

The new one loks better :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
931. K8eCane
3:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, I wish that whoever was in the driver's seat would have steered away from the two elementary schools full of kids and hit the church instead... :/



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3098
930. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
929. daddyjames
3:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


This morning was unbelievable. It brought me right out of bed. I had lightning strike 1/4 mile away on a light pole right in front of my face. I've never really seen cloud-to-ground before. Amazing. We've had copious rainfall as well. It looked like a literal shower out there before sunrise. The mesonet is reporting over 2 inches of rain in some spots, and convection is still redeveloping over OKC. This is terrible for Moore.


Yes, it is.

Do you get hail quite often up in Alaska? I find the lightning here unimpressive (I'm originally from SoFl) but the hail is absolutely amazing to me - well, unless its bouncing off my car.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
928. pcola57
3:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:


I think RitaEvac is having an 'unclear on the concept' kind of a day.


I think we all have "our days" yonzabam.. :)
It helps when folks pitch in and help explain..
I know I need it more often these days.. :p
I'm a victim of "Evelynn Woods Speed Reading Course" myself..LoL.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6813
927. Chucktown
3:32 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting RitaEvac:
After looking at aerials on Google map of the damage, one thing stood out the most. The tornado was moving on a NE direction and where there is the Central church of Christ along I-35 the tornado literally changed to an ESE direction going opposite of the church. There is no way the tornado should of turned like that. That is by far the most stunning event I've ever seen, and the evidence of the track change is evident.


Yea, for those that missed the updated google earth map earlier today

Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
926. Patrap
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231523Z - 231800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL HAZARD WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS FAR
ERN PA/NRN NJ. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WHERE GREATER
CLUSTER/LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS APPARENT.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE ABE/TTN TO 20 NW EWR AREA AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OFF THE 12Z APG/WAL RAOBS HAVE BEEN BREACHED WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN 15Z METARS. AMIDST A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED 500-1000 J/KG.
MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A FAST UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WHICH MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS
PRIMARILY PRODUCING SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...B GM...

LAT...LON 43067382 43317289 43077200 42707193 42077223 41467298
41107349 40717386 40247443 40187490 40487540 40767527
42097440 43067382
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
925. FunnelVortex
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No. Beyond 240-300 hours Is lala land. 200 hours is only 8 days from now which, considering that, even our normal forecasts go out to 7 days, so really it's believable that anything within 10 days is broadly accurate.


I checked again, the development is at 300... sorry guys.

But in the meantime. An epac landfaller below 200.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
924. Torito
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Patrap:


That is yesterday's watch, i believe...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
923. seminolesfan
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No. Beyond 240-300 hours Is lala land. 200 hours is only 8 days from now which, considering that, even our normal forecasts go out to 7 days, so really it's believable that anything within 10 days is broadly accurate.

Care to post any model verifications to support this statement?
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
922. K8eCane
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting RitaEvac:


No religion is allowed in schools anymore Nea


yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, ya think that would work? ridiculous and go ahead and ban me
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3098
921. JRRP
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting CaribBoy:


Windshear?
Yeah
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5696
920. Patrap
3:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2013



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231457Z - 231730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL HAZARD TODAY WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WRN
NY INTO NWRN PA. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WHEN GREATER
CLUSTER/LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS APPARENT.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR ROC SWWD TO FKL. AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OFF THE 12Z BUF/PIT RAOBS HAVE BEEN
BREACHED. RELATIVELY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS WHICH IS RETARDING SURFACE HEATING...BUT GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST THE PRESENCE OF 10-12 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS
MAY YIELD POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A FAST UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 43167705 43597626 44167566 44447522 44337450 43977408
43407431 42267535 41557649 40617833 40587921 40907967
41357969 43167705
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
919. Torito
3:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
918. Patrap
3:29 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
917. FunnelVortex
3:29 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


This morning was unbelievable. It brought me right out of bed. I had lightning strike 1/4 mile away on a light pole right in front of my face. I've never really seen cloud-to-ground before. Amazing. We've had copious rainfall as well. It looked like a literal shower out there before sunrise. The mesonet is reporting over 2 inches of rain in some spots, and convection is still redeveloping over OKC. This is terrible for Moore.


Welcome to the lower 48, Levi.

During heavy thunderstorms, there are sometimes two bolts every second, strong winds, and rain so heavy you cant make out the features on the house across the street!
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.