Moore Tornado an EF-5; $2 Billion Damage Estimate: 3rd Costliest Tornado in History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

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The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 is now ranked an EF-5, making it one of only 59 U.S. tornadoes to achieve that distinction since record keeping began in 1950. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma announced Tuesday that their damage survey teams found an area of EF-5 damage near Briarwood Elementary School, with winds of 200 - 210 mph indicated. There were no EF-5 tornadoes observed in 2012, and the last time the U.S. had an EF-5 was on May 24, 2011, when the Oklahoma towns of Calumet, El Reno, Piedmont, and Guthrie were hit by an EF-5 with 210+ mph winds that killed nine people. The maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was a huge 1.3 miles. Detailed damage survey information in Google Earth Format provided by the Norman, OK NWS office shows that the typical width of the EF-0 and greater damage swath was about 0.6 miles, and the EF-4 damage area was about 0.1 miles across at its widest. EF-4 damage occurred along approximately 4 miles of the tornado's 17-mile long path. The damage swath from the May 20, 2013 tornado as it cut through the most densely built up portions of Moore was roughly 1.5 times as wide as the one from the May 3, 1999 EF-5 tornado. That tornado was the 4th costliest in history ($1.4 billion 2011 dollars), so it is a good bet that the 2013 Moore tornado will end up being even more expensive. This morning, the Oklahoma Insurance Department said the preliminary tornado damage estimate could top $2 billion. This would make the 2013 Moore tornado the 2nd most expensive tornado in history (as ranked by NOAA/SPC) or 3rd most expensive (as ranked by insurance broker Aon Benfield.) The nine billion-dollar tornadoes (2013 dollars) are:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.9 billion
2) Tuscaloosa, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $2.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
3) Moore, Oklahoma, May 20, 2013, $2 billion
4) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.8 billion
5) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 1970, $1.5 billion
6) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
7) Hackleburg, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $1.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
8) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
9) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion


Figure 1. The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)


Figure 2. The damage swath of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013. EF-4 damage (red colors) occurred along roughly 4 miles of the 17-mile path, and the EF-4 damage swath was up to 0.1 miles wide. The tornado's maximum width of 1.3 miles (EF-0 and greater damage) occurred over a relatively small portion of the path, before the storm reached Moore. Image credit: NWS Norman.


Figure 3. On May 20, 2013, a supercell thunderstorm in central Oklahoma spawned a destructive tornado that passed just south of Oklahoma City. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this natural-color image of the storm system at 2:40 p.m. Central Daylight Time (19:40 Universal Time), just minutes before the devastating twister began. The red line on the image depicts the tornado’s track. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

There have been bigger tornadoes
The 1.3 mile maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was not a record. Wikipedia documents that the EF-3 Edmonson, Texas tornado of May 31, 1968 had a damage path width between 2 and 3 miles (3.2 and 4.8 km) wide. The EF-4 Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska tornado on May 22, 2004 was of similar size, with a damage path up to 2.5 miles wide. Doppler radar measurements indicate that the May 4, 1999 Mulhall, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado--which thankfully passed mostly over farmland--would have caused damage over a path 4 miles wide at its peak size, had it encountered a built-up area. The EF-5 tornado that devastated Greensburg, Kansas on May 4, 2007 was 1.7 miles wide.


Figure 4. Damage swath of the Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska EF-4 tornado of May 22, 2004 was up to 2.5 miles wide, making it one of the largest tornadoes on record.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 22, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. You can follow today's severe weather from our Severe Weather page.

No tornadoes reported on Tuesday; "Slight Risk" of severe weather on Wednesday
The severe weather outbreak of May 18 - 22 peaked on Sunday and Monday. We did not record any tornadoes on Tuesday, though there were many reports of large hail and damaging winds, including three thunderstorms with wind gusts over 74 mph. Tuesday was the first day since May 14 that no tornadoes were recorded in the U.S. And after issuing four consecutive "Moderate Risk" outlooks for severe weather, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is going with only a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Wednesday in the U.S., with the main severe weather action expected to affect portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. The primary threat will be straight-line wind damage and large hail, though we can't rule out a few tornadoes. During the three-day period May 18 - May 20, 70 tornadoes (preliminary) were recorded by SPC.


Video 1. Charles Cook caught the birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado at Newcastle, OK. It moved from there to Moore where it caused catastrophic devastation.


Video 2. NOAA's GOES-East satellite collected this view of the storm system that spawned a deadly tornado over Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013. The animation runs from 10:45 a.m. through 6:45 p.m., Central Daylight Time. Images courtesy NASA GOES Project Science: ‪http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/‬

The Norman, OK NWS office has an excellent page with detailed info on the Moore tornado.

I did a 10-minute Skype interview with democracynow.org on Tuesday morning, discussing the Moore tornado.

I greatly appreciate all the valuable links members of the WU community have posted here, and I have used many of them in my posts over the past day. Keep up the great work!

How to help
Portlight Strategies, an organization that supports disaster victims with disabilities, will be working with shelter operators and disability stakeholder organizations in Oklahoma to serve the needs of people with disabilities. Further information and how to offer additional support can be found on their website.

Donations can be made to American Red Cross disaster relief at redcross.org/weather or by texting WEATHER to 90999 to donate $10.

Donations can be made on The Salvation Army's website or by texting STORM to 80888 to donate $10. You can also call to make donations of other monetary amounts at (800) 725-2769.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Any blob updates..anywhere?
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Quoting Grothar:


More weather action for our Levi in Norman, maybe now enjoying his first lightnings. But much less joy for the poor people in the tornado stricken regions unfortunately.

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What is going on in OKC
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
Senator Coburn was not opposed to Sandy disaster relief per se. He was opposed to all the additional pork stuck into that disaster relief bill. And that happens every time. It's shameful. But indicative of our political process that the guy who tries to stand up to such nonsense gets mischaracterized by those who live for porking up such legislation.


Tell that to (R)Peter King, who has told any fellow republicans who didn't vote for Sandy relief to not expect to raise any money for their reelection in the state of New York.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Good morning over there from a cold and wet Germany with even some freezing temps and maybe snow in mountainious regions, brrr. The "ice saints" (in the version of the Gregorian Calendar, see below) are very reliable this year. Trough from the north is digging very deep into Central Europe, sigh!



From Wikipedia: The Ice Saints is a name given to St. Mamertus, St. Pancras, and St. Servatius in Flemish, French, Dutch, Hungarian, German, Austrian, Polish, Swiss and Croatian folklore. They are so named because their feast days fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively. In Flanders St. Boniface of Tarsus is counted amongst the Ice Saints as well; St. Boniface's feast day falling on May 14. The period from May 12 to May 15 was noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in many years, including the last nightly frosts of the spring, in the Northern Hemisphere under the Julian Calendar. The introduction of the Gregorian Calendar in 1582 involved skipping 10 days in the calendar, so that the equivalent days from the climatic point of view became May 22–25.

In Poland and the Czech Republic, the Ice Saints are St. Pancras, Saint Servatus and St. Boniface of Tarsus (i.e., May 12 to May 14). To the Poles, the trio are known collectively as zimni ogrodnicy (cold gardeners), and are followed by zimna Zośka (cold Sophias) on the feast day of St. Sophia which falls on May 15. In Czech, the three saints are collectively referred to as "ledoví muži" (ice-men or icy men), and Sophia is known as "Žofie, ledová žena" (Sophia, the ice-woman).

In Sweden, the German legend of the ice saints has resulted in the belief that there are special "iron nights," especially in the middle of June, which are susceptible to frost. The term "iron nights" (järnnätter) has probably arisen through a mistranslation of German sources, where the term "Eismänner" (ice men) was read as "Eisenmänner" (iron men) and their nights then termed "iron nights," which then became shifted from May to June.
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"We may be talking about a significant severe weather outbreak come next Tuesday and Wednesday." (TA)
Good Heavens. These folks need a breather.




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760. beell
One of these pieces could certainly provide potential over at least a limited area. If you buy into recent research that favors less progressive kinks in the jet stream due to loss of Arctic sea ice and warming at the poles-one would have to favor the ECMWF.
:-)

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT EVEN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY WITH HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS PIECES
OF THE WRN TROUGH EJECT EWD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE DAYS 4-5
/SUN. AND MON./ THAN THE ECMWF...THUS SHIFTING THE SURFACE TROUGH
EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

LATER...BOTH MODELS REDEVELOP THE WRN RIDGE...BUT AGAIN -- THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...SHIFTING IT
INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY 7 WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER-MOVING WRN TROUGH
-- AND THUS RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
UNTIL DAY 8.

IN WHAT MANNER THESE EJECTIONS OF WRN U.S. ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS
OCCUR WILL LARGELY MODULATE DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ATTM -- IT
APPEARS THAT EVEN WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6.
WHILE THREAT COULD INCREASE SOMETIME IN THE DAY 7-8 TIME
FRAME...DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF A
THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2013
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14908
Quoting bigwes6844:
may 22

may 28


Looks like the GOM has cooled, also the east coast has cooled a bit too.
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LOL the geographical tropical weather outlook satellite is glitched!

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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We may be talking about a significant severe weather outbreak come next Tuesday and Wednesday.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting bigwes6844:
may 22

may 28


What am i looking at? sst looks about the same. xD
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may 22

may 28
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JeffMasters, do you think you can make a blog on solar weather sometime soon? :P
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
Senator Coburn was not opposed to Sandy disaster relief per se. He was opposed to all the additional pork stuck into that disaster relief bill. And that happens every time. It's shameful. But indicative of our political process that the guy who tries to stand up to such nonsense gets mischaracterized by those who live for porking up such legislation.
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...
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Yesterday with the suns incredible solar flares.

There were actually 2 flares within 50 minutes of each other, as shown in this GIF.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

****Update#12: ****GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode while the
anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or estimated
return to service at this time.

GOES-14: Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
activation is in the process with imaging now estimated to begin at
approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013.

GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. **




NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO :'(
meh.... i can live without it xD
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. This was the end of the 0z GFS run last night:



tell 0z keep dreaming!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning wes... still pretty cool near us. I hope the warming takes its own sweet slow time in Bahamian waters...
morning baha! i see 0z tryna start early and give us a direct hit
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745. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!

I hate this ... look at the far extreme of the Image .. you would swear something is cooking up but instead its a flaw ..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
the city of moore now has a stigma associated with it. could miami be next? what will rubio say after his town is run over by back to back major hurricanes. he wont care about the pork then
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


But many places have politicians who are anti-government funding. So, they have no backing for gov funds for anything that helps the common folkes. I read some OK politicians vetoed help for Sandy. How can they ask for funding for OK when they didn't want funding for elsewhere hit by natural disaster as well? Irony I suppose for them. But those who oppose government and funding for help...can't go and ask for it when it hits them like only they are worth having it I reckon. there's a reason for government help and taxes, and those who rally against it, need to open their eyes...but sadly only do when it affects them or their city/state.
Senator Coburn was not opposed to Sandy disaster relief per se. He was opposed to all the additional pork stuck into that disaster relief bill. And that happens every time. It's shameful. But indicative of our political process that the guy who tries to stand up to such nonsense gets mischaracterized by those who live for porking up such legislation.
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Here is the latest on what is going on with the sattelites GOES-13 and GOES-14.

********Update#13: ********GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode
while the anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or
estimated return to service at this time.

> GOES-14:**Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
> activation is complete and recovery mode imaging commenced at
> approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013. Until recovery mode is
complete,
> the imagery should not be considered within normal tolerance for
> navigation. Transition to the normal routine schedule (or RSO if
> requested) should take place at approximately 1600 UTC on May 23,
> 2013. The ingest and distribution channels of GOES-East data
have not
> been changed, so the satepsdist ADDE servers are automatically
> receiving GOES-14 data. Regarding GOES-East GVAR, users will need to
> repoint their antennas to GOES-14 at 105 degrees West in order to
> receive the GOES-14 GVAR broadcast data stream. GOES-14 GVAR
will not
> be transmitted through GOES-13 channels while GOES-13 recovery
efforts
> continue. Since the recovery schedule is presently unknown, users
> should consider their near-term needs against the efforts required to
> repoint to GOES-14.

GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. ******

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14908
Good morning. This was the end of the 0z GFS run last night:



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Rainstorm on the morning of 22 May 2013


A trough of low pressure lingering around the coast of Guangdong brought several episodes of heavy rain and thunderstorms to Hong Kong this morning (22 May) which caused landslides and flooding in some places. The Hong Kong Observatory issued the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal at 4:10am, the first time since July 2010.

From midnight till noon, more than 150 millimetres of rain were recorded in many places over the territory. The rainfall recorded in Tseung Kwan O, eastern Kowloon, northern part of Hong Kong Island, Tuen Mun and Tung Chung even exceeded 200 millimetres.



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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare april22/may22 2013


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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Rain is the word to use to describe the forecast for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.

MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14908
Quoting bigwes6844:
The gulf is coming alive right on time! 80 degrees now

Look at the temps in the carribean
Morning wes... still pretty cool near us. I hope the warming takes its own sweet slow time in Bahamian waters...
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Good morning all. Fell asleep last night without realizing I wasn't still blogging... lol

Coffee's going on right now... trying a new Madagascar Caramel Vanilla blend this morning along with the standard regular and decaf....

Breakfast is light this morning... wheat toast and old-fashioned Sawyer's guava or pineapple jam.

Still no GOES, so I can't even offer a satellite shot for ur coffee this a.m.... :o(

I gotta make an early departure this morning, so I may not be in until much later. However, a very good morning to all. Enjoy your day!

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Issue Time: 2013 May 23 0509 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2013
Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0240 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3950 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems Link we have now reached the S3 threshold

Issue Time: 2013 May 23 0348 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0330 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare april22/may22 2013

can i smell uh oh! its getting warm!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only a slight risk hail is greatest concearn
oh okay i was nervous at first!
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compare april22/may22 2013

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting bigwes6844:
keeper not again!!!
only a slight risk hail is greatest concearn
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141


--------------040903010804070809000202
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

********Update#13: ********GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode
while the anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or
estimated return to service at this time.
> GOES-14:**Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
> activation is complete and recovery mode imaging commenced at
> approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013. Until recovery mode is
complete,
> the imagery should not be considered within normal tolerance for
> navigation. Transition to the normal routine schedule (or RSO if
> requested) should take place at approximately 1600 UTC on May 23,
> 2013. The ingest and distribution channels of GOES-East data
have not
> been changed, so the satepsdist ADDE servers are automatically
> receiving GOES-14 data. Regarding GOES-East GVAR, users will need to
> repoint their antennas to GOES-14 at 105 degrees West in order to
> receive the GOES-14 GVAR broadcast data stream. GOES-14 GVAR
will not
> be transmitted through GOES-13 channels while GOES-13 recovery
efforts
> continue. Since the recovery schedule is presently unknown, users
> should consider their near-term needs against the efforts required to
> repoint to GOES-14.
GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. ******
**
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
and this shows the gulf is warming up! at one point it was all blue.
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The gulf is coming alive right on time! 80 degrees now

Look at the temps in the carribean
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looks like amarillo
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
keeper not again!!!
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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

****Update#12: ****GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode while the
anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or estimated
return to service at this time.

GOES-14: Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
activation is in the process with imaging now estimated to begin at
approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013.

GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. **

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
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91E remains embedded along the monsoon trough as the tropical wave is about to enter into the eastern Pacific. This wave must also be watched for potential development as global models are hinting that. It'll be interesting to see if three tropical storms develop in the eastern Pacific this month, which it never occurs yet.

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Invest 91E remains disorganized but still has an opportunity to organize.



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Quoting Patrap:
Termites swarming here ...RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN '''
yes indeed Pat! I was at work and saw them coming around 8:15. they came all inside the store! it was bad tonight
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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