Moore Tornado an EF-5; $2 Billion Damage Estimate: 3rd Costliest Tornado in History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

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The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 is now ranked an EF-5, making it one of only 59 U.S. tornadoes to achieve that distinction since record keeping began in 1950. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma announced Tuesday that their damage survey teams found an area of EF-5 damage near Briarwood Elementary School, with winds of 200 - 210 mph indicated. There were no EF-5 tornadoes observed in 2012, and the last time the U.S. had an EF-5 was on May 24, 2011, when the Oklahoma towns of Calumet, El Reno, Piedmont, and Guthrie were hit by an EF-5 with 210+ mph winds that killed nine people. The maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was a huge 1.3 miles. Detailed damage survey information in Google Earth Format provided by the Norman, OK NWS office shows that the typical width of the EF-0 and greater damage swath was about 0.6 miles, and the EF-4 damage area was about 0.1 miles across at its widest. EF-4 damage occurred along approximately 4 miles of the tornado's 17-mile long path. The damage swath from the May 20, 2013 tornado as it cut through the most densely built up portions of Moore was roughly 1.5 times as wide as the one from the May 3, 1999 EF-5 tornado. That tornado was the 4th costliest in history ($1.4 billion 2011 dollars), so it is a good bet that the 2013 Moore tornado will end up being even more expensive. This morning, the Oklahoma Insurance Department said the preliminary tornado damage estimate could top $2 billion. This would make the 2013 Moore tornado the 2nd most expensive tornado in history (as ranked by NOAA/SPC) or 3rd most expensive (as ranked by insurance broker Aon Benfield.) The nine billion-dollar tornadoes (2013 dollars) are:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.9 billion
2) Tuscaloosa, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $2.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
3) Moore, Oklahoma, May 20, 2013, $2 billion
4) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.8 billion
5) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 1970, $1.5 billion
6) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
7) Hackleburg, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $1.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
8) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
9) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion


Figure 1. The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)


Figure 2. The damage swath of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013. EF-4 damage (red colors) occurred along roughly 4 miles of the 17-mile path, and the EF-4 damage swath was up to 0.1 miles wide. The tornado's maximum width of 1.3 miles (EF-0 and greater damage) occurred over a relatively small portion of the path, before the storm reached Moore. Image credit: NWS Norman.


Figure 3. On May 20, 2013, a supercell thunderstorm in central Oklahoma spawned a destructive tornado that passed just south of Oklahoma City. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this natural-color image of the storm system at 2:40 p.m. Central Daylight Time (19:40 Universal Time), just minutes before the devastating twister began. The red line on the image depicts the tornado’s track. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

There have been bigger tornadoes
The 1.3 mile maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was not a record. Wikipedia documents that the EF-3 Edmonson, Texas tornado of May 31, 1968 had a damage path width between 2 and 3 miles (3.2 and 4.8 km) wide. The EF-4 Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska tornado on May 22, 2004 was of similar size, with a damage path up to 2.5 miles wide. Doppler radar measurements indicate that the May 4, 1999 Mulhall, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado--which thankfully passed mostly over farmland--would have caused damage over a path 4 miles wide at its peak size, had it encountered a built-up area. The EF-5 tornado that devastated Greensburg, Kansas on May 4, 2007 was 1.7 miles wide.


Figure 4. Damage swath of the Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska EF-4 tornado of May 22, 2004 was up to 2.5 miles wide, making it one of the largest tornadoes on record.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 22, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. You can follow today's severe weather from our Severe Weather page.

No tornadoes reported on Tuesday; "Slight Risk" of severe weather on Wednesday
The severe weather outbreak of May 18 - 22 peaked on Sunday and Monday. We did not record any tornadoes on Tuesday, though there were many reports of large hail and damaging winds, including three thunderstorms with wind gusts over 74 mph. Tuesday was the first day since May 14 that no tornadoes were recorded in the U.S. And after issuing four consecutive "Moderate Risk" outlooks for severe weather, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is going with only a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Wednesday in the U.S., with the main severe weather action expected to affect portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. The primary threat will be straight-line wind damage and large hail, though we can't rule out a few tornadoes. During the three-day period May 18 - May 20, 70 tornadoes (preliminary) were recorded by SPC.


Video 1. Charles Cook caught the birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado at Newcastle, OK. It moved from there to Moore where it caused catastrophic devastation.


Video 2. NOAA's GOES-East satellite collected this view of the storm system that spawned a deadly tornado over Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013. The animation runs from 10:45 a.m. through 6:45 p.m., Central Daylight Time. Images courtesy NASA GOES Project Science: ‪http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/‬

The Norman, OK NWS office has an excellent page with detailed info on the Moore tornado.

I did a 10-minute Skype interview with democracynow.org on Tuesday morning, discussing the Moore tornado.

I greatly appreciate all the valuable links members of the WU community have posted here, and I have used many of them in my posts over the past day. Keep up the great work!

How to help
Portlight Strategies, an organization that supports disaster victims with disabilities, will be working with shelter operators and disability stakeholder organizations in Oklahoma to serve the needs of people with disabilities. Further information and how to offer additional support can be found on their website.

Donations can be made to American Red Cross disaster relief at redcross.org/weather or by texting WEATHER to 90999 to donate $10.

Donations can be made on The Salvation Army's website or by texting STORM to 80888 to donate $10. You can also call to make donations of other monetary amounts at (800) 725-2769.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)
It is my harmless opine that this will be winters last whine...Zonal flow should prevail after the forecast omega block breaks down.Ye old Bermudi High will flex its muscle soon, and a summery pattern takes hold on the eastern half of our Great Nation. God bless to your relatives that fought and gave all during the wars.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)


Forecast for Bar Harbor is rain only, not nearly cold enough to snow: Link

It won't be cold enough to snow in Caribou either :)

I'm not trying to be contrary, but I was surprised to see that forecast for the north east. The mid-atlantic sweated right through yesterday at 90 degrees and humid with severe storms, so if it snowed this weekend- that would define whiplash weather!
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Quoting Chucktown:
This is some new unbelievable stuff from Google - Moore, OK

Link


WOW see the scrapes on the ground just before Briarwood Elementary School

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Just got a moderate risk for parts of NW Texas and far SE Oklahoma.
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More rain up there? this is like the 4th day in a row that they got flash flood statements...

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from noon EDT today through Friday
morning...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for the northern Adirondacks of New York... the
Champlain Valley... and the remainder of Vermont.

* From noon EDT today through Friday morning

* thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight will have the potential
to produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour. These storms
will be training... or moving over the same area... and this will
increase the threat for flash flooding.

* Flash flooding will occur quickly... thus roads can flood in a
very short period of time... small rivers can rise rapidly... and
culverts can fill up quickly. All of these situations can lead
to flooding in a short period of time.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



Evenson


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The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* Until Monday morning
* at 10:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 32.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 33.5 feet by
Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday
morning.
* Impact... at 32.0 feet... minor flooding occurs. The Mississippi
River backs into several creeks producing flooding.






943 PM CDT Wed may 22 2013

The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at Chester.
* At 9 PM Wednesday the stage was 28.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast... the river will fall below flood stage Sunday afternoon.


Lat... Lon 3826 9043 3826 9030 3769 8935 3769 8959 3787 9003



fld latest 7am forecast
location stg obs stg 05/23 05/24 05/25 05/26 05/27

Mississippi River
Canton ld20 14.0 14.22 14.0 13.5 13.1 13.0 13.0
Quincy 17.0 17.15 16.9 16.3 15.8 15.5 15.6
Hannibal 16.0 17.80 17.5 16.9 16.5 16.3 16.2
Saverton ld22 16.0 16.90 16.7 15.9 15.3 15.0 14.9
Louisiana 15.0 17.40 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.5 15.3
Clarksville ld 25.0 28.09 27.8 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.9
Winfield ld25 26.0 29.05 28.9 28.0 27.2 26.6 26.2


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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Beautiful morning sun coming up over the wooded rolling hills of Southern Illinois.



How much rain did you get yesterday? we got .3 inches due to a thunderstorm last night.
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GFS still has the gulf system, but keeps pushing it back towards the end of the run.
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Statement as of 5:02 am CDT on May 23, 2013
... Record low temperatures possible Friday morning (may 24th)...

Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected Friday morning with
low temperatures in the 20s north and lower to middle 30s over
the remainder of the area.

Here is a list of record lows for Friday (may 24th).

Record
location low year(s)
------------------------------------------------- --------------
Antigo 29 1917
Appleton 33 1925
Green Bay 33 1992
Manitowoc 34 1925

Marshfield 27 1917
Merrill 30 1956
Oshkosh 33 1935
Rhinelander 28 1925

Stevens Point 32 1924
Sturgeon Bay 31 1934
Wausau 32 1948... 1992
Wisconsin Rapids 29 1930

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Statement as of 3:53 AM CDT on May 23, 2013
... Frost advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am CDT
Friday...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am CDT
Friday.

* Low temperatures from 25 to 35 degrees are expected across the
area tonight.

* The cold temperatures will likely result in the formation of
frost by morning. Frost can damage cold-sensitive plants.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost poses a risk to cold-sensitive
plants. Sensitive vegetation that is left unprotected could be
damaged or killed. If possible... shelter any such plants in a
garage or shed overnight. If that is not possible... cover the
plants with a tarp or cloth.

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Quoting biff4ugo:
Morning/Evening

Is the severity of a weather event determined by who built the structures it impacts? If it hits a mall instead of a hospital and does the same types of damage, is the tornado weaker because the mall it hit isn't a government building?
Wind speed I get, it is the same if it blows past a tree or a truck. Is the Fujita scale for human damage assessment or a way to gage the strength of the storm? Something seems off when the ratings jump only when passing structures, is there a better way to judge wind speed when passing a field or farm fences, instead of just buildings?


Both wind and damage is measured to determine strength of a tornado.
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Quoting Chucktown:


That's for the end of next week (8-14 day) Yes, it will warm up after the nor'easter this weekend. C'mon Nea, your better than that !!
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)
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Statement as of 2:41 AM MDT on May 23, 2013
... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 am this morning to
8 PM MST this evening...

* winds... southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60
mph will develop by mid to late morning and continue through mid
evening.

* Impacts... blowing dust will reduce visibility from the Little
Colorado River valley into northeast Arizona. Cross winds may
hamper travel on area roadways.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph... or
gusts from 40 to 57 mph... are expected. Winds this strong can
make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles.
Consider securing loose belongings on your property. Additional
weather information is on the web at www.Weather.Gov/Flagstaff.

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Morning/Evening

Is the severity of a weather event determined by who built the structures it impacts? If it hits a mall instead of a hospital and does the same types of damage, is the tornado weaker because the mall it hit isn't a government building?
Wind speed I get, it is the same if it blows past a tree or a truck. Is the Fujita scale for human damage assessment or a way to gage the strength of the storm? Something seems off when the ratings jump only when passing structures, is there a better way to judge wind speed when passing a field or farm fences, instead of just buildings?
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Dense Fog Warning as of 5:56 AM MDT on May 23, 2013
... Dense fog Warning in effect until 8 am MDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a dense fog
Warning... which is in effect until 8 am MDT this morning.

* Visibility... one tenth mile or less.

* Impacts... significantly reduced visibilities will make travel
hazardous along area roadways. This includes Interstate 80
between mile markers 318 and 355.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog warning means visibilities will be
reduced to less than one fifth mile. If driving... slow down...
use your headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.





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Dense Fog AdvisoryStatement as of 8:06 AM CDT on May 23, 2013


... Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect until 9 am CDT this morning.

* Timing... through 9am this morning then improving.

* Visibilities... around one third of a mile at times.

* Impacts... low visibilities will result in hazardous driving conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning All..
76 degrees with 85%rh and dew at 71..
Mostly cloudy with winds from NNW at 6mph..
Feels very humid and almost summer like now..

Bright and inviting at the beach..
Surf is almost flat..

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Statement as of 9:12 AM CDT on May 23, 2013
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 930 am CDT
for southern McClain... central Garvin... east central Grady and
northwestern Pontotoc counties...


At 914 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
detect severe thunderstorms located 5 miles west of Maysville and
near Pauls Valley... moving south at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
half dollar size hail...
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Pauls Valley... Lindsay... Wynnewood... Stratford... Maysville... Wayne...
Paoli... Washington... Byars... Rosedale... Criner... Antioch... Whitebead
and Payne.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move inside a sturdy building until the storm has passed.

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Halloween solar storm of 2013
October 2003 – Halloween Storms
In late October 2003, three large active regions were present on the solar surface. One of these was responsible for the majority of the flaring and eruptive activity during the 2003 storm events. Not only was the geomagnetic storm noteworthy, the solar proton event was the fourth largest in 25 years of records. The largest solar active region was responsible for the ~2000 km/s CMEs that triggered the geomagnetic storms of 29-31 October.
Minor power grid disturbances were experienced in North America, including a capacitor trip in the Northwest, and transformer heating in the Northeast. Ground magnetic field fluctuations were stronger over Northern Europe, and Sweden experienced a blackout of less than an hour in length affecting around 50,000 customers. The blackout was attributed to the combination of harmonic distortions caused by geomagnetically induced currents and incorrectly set protective relay thresholds.
Perhaps the most surprising impact from this event was the twelve transformers in South Africa that suffered damage necessitating their removal from service. The low latitude of South Africa (~40 corrected geomagnetic latitude - roughly the same as the state of Florida) is usually assumed to be immune from surface electric fields strong enough to cause transformer internal heating.

Credit from here.
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This is some new unbelievable stuff from Google - Moore, OK

Link
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Hi nrt. Will NOAA have a stream to see the conference where they will release their outlook at 1 PM EDT?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13340
Quoting JeffMasters:


With hurricane season around the corner, I doubt I'll have have a chance to talk about space weather.

A new report released today from AER and Lloyd's had this to say:


The total US population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD.

Jeff Masters



Holy cow 1-2 years?!

Geez, thats crazy, and that cost to fix it is beyond comprehension!

Thanks for replying, and i understand what you are saying, with an active hurricane season drawing near.

-Torito

Edit: Nice link, by the way.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
At least one of these two forecasts is wrong:

cpc


That's for the end of next week (8-14 day) Yes, it will warm up after the nor'easter this weekend. C'mon Nea, your better than that !!
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Quoting FLwolverine:
I think the perception of "pork" has a lot to do with whose ox is being gored


If it doesn't have anything to do with relief from the disaster in question, it's pork and should be handled in a separate bill. And pork is not a Democrat versus Republican issue, too many in both parties load up all kinds of bills with extra spending to benefit their own pet special interests. It's wrong across the board. But it's especially egregious in disaster bills that need to be passed in a timely manner to benefit those affected.

Regarding offsets, one of the cardinal rules of politics is when confronted with a budget cut, slice off muscle instead of fat to present the illusion that any cuts will have a dire impact. There is always plenty of fat to be cut. But the fat represents those in top positions in government with the most perks, and therefore the most desirable of government jobs, such as commissions and multiple layers of administrators. The people in government that actually perform vital services are therefore the first to go.

Basically, our political leadership is nothing of the sort.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Exactly what "Z" is most trustworthy?


Ok, it won't let me link this for some reason. 39 page study from NOAA

A Comparison of Forecast Skills among GFS Four Cycles in the Past Ten Years -- Justification for the 06Z and 18Z Runs
Fanglin Yang
NCEP EMC Global Modeling Branch Biweekly Briefing
December 13, 2012

SUMMARY

1.The GFS 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as the 00Z and 12Z cycles.

2.The 06Z cycle is the least skillful.

3. Conventional data count of the 06Z is consistently less (~10%) than that of the other cycles. No large difference in satellite data count is found among the four cycles.

4.For short-range forecast ( ~ 3 days), the later 06Z (18Z) cycle does show better forecast skills than the earlier 00Z (12Z) cycle when both are validated at the same verification time.

5.For medium and longer range forecast, the later 06Z (18Z) cycle is not significantly different from the earlier 00Z (12Z) cycle. --- only run the 06Z and 18Z cycles for short-range forecast?

6.In general, both the GFS and ECMWF have the best (better) forecast skills for the 00Z cycle. However, both model showed worse tropical 850-hPa winds for the 00Z cycle than that of the other cycles.
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School got cancelled for me today due to a power outage, thank goodness.

Icky weather in my area today, warm, wet, and humid right now but temps are expected to fall near 50F later today and get pretty windy.
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785. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Torito:
JeffMasters, do you think you can make a blog on solar weather sometime soon? :P


With hurricane season around the corner, I doubt I'll have have a chance to talk about space weather.

A new report released today from AER and Lloyd's had this to say:


The total US population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD.

Jeff Masters
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like the wavetrain has begun in a slow way.


It's a bit early to look toward the CV islands for a good wave to develop. But I just love that sat pic
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...
Puh-leeze. It was pork. A disaster relief bill should stick to the disaster in question, instead of getting loaded up with this kind of pork:

One of the most stunning elements in the amendment is $16 billion for the Community Development Block Grant, a slush fund that states and localities can hand out pretty much anywhere they choose. The amendment contains several pages of language ostensibly aimed at restricting use of the funds, but also says they can be applied to “other eligible events in calendar years 2011, 2012, and 2013.” It’s just a guess, but events in 2011 and 2013 are not likely the result of Hurricane Sandy.

http://blog.heritage.org/2013/01/14/hurricane-san dy-relief-an-early-opportunity-for-budgeting/

It wasn't about making a statement back home (and nice job disparaging those in flyover country). Political leadership should not be about exploiting the good nature of the American people to pork up a disaster bill.
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Quoting Chucktown:
Snow for NE over Memorial Da Weekend !?!
Say whaaaaat !!

Link
At least one of these two forecasts is wrong:

cpc
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Good Morning, Afternoon or whatever,
Sunrise on the West Coast, 62.8F
Forecast 74 (WU) normal is 81/57
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Quoting barbamz:
Good morning over there from a cold and wet Germany with even some freezing temps and maybe snow in mountainious regions, brrr. The "ice saints" (in the version of the Gregorian Calendar, see below) are very reliable this year. Trough from the north is digging very deep into Central Europe, sigh!



From Wikipedia: The Ice Saints is a name given to St. Mamertus, St. Pancras, and St. Servatius in Flemish, French, Dutch, Hungarian, German, Austrian, Polish, Swiss and Croatian folklore. They are so named because their feast days fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively. In Flanders St. Boniface of Tarsus is counted amongst the Ice Saints as well; St. Boniface's feast day falling on May 14. The period from May 12 to May 15 was noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in many years, including the last nightly frosts of the spring, in the Northern Hemisphere under the Julian Calendar. The introduction of the Gregorian Calendar in 1582 involved skipping 10 days in the calendar, so that the equivalent days from the climatic point of view became May 22–25.

In Poland and the Czech Republic, the Ice Saints are St. Pancras, Saint Servatus and St. Boniface of Tarsus (i.e., May 12 to May 14). To the Poles, the trio are known collectively as zimni ogrodnicy (cold gardeners), and are followed by zimna Zośka (cold Sophias) on the feast day of St. Sophia which falls on May 15. In Czech, the three saints are collectively referred to as "ledoví muži" (ice-men or icy men), and Sophia is known as "Žofie, ledová žena" (Sophia, the ice-woman).

In Sweden, the German legend of the ice saints has resulted in the belief that there are special "iron nights," especially in the middle of June, which are susceptible to frost. The term "iron nights" (järnnätter) has probably arisen through a mistranslation of German sources, where the term "Eismänner" (ice men) was read as "Eisenmänner" (iron men) and their nights then termed "iron nights," which then became shifted from May to June.


Heya Barb. Much colder here in N Wales today too. Wind chill 37' in the brisk winds. Not as wet here though. Lumps of rain quite random and blowing through quickly. Pretty typical blustery, patchy rain spring. Everything now finally looking green and like spring at least here!
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


It looks like the wavetrain has begun in a slow way. IMO,the North Atlantic season looks like it will have a slow start with the first storm forming around mid to late June.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13340
Quoting Neapolitan:
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...
Here's a summary (written by the GOP House caucus) of the Sandy relief bill. Link. The amendment which tripled the size of the expenditures was presented by a Republican rep from New Jersey. I think the perception of "pork" has a lot to do with whose ox is being gored (to thoroughly mix metaphors - sorry). We'll see what happens this time. My objection to offsetting relief funds with budget cuts is that the cuts disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society (effects of the sequestration being a prime example).
/politics off
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Quoting Chucktown:
Snow for NE over Memorial Da Weekend !?!
Say whaaaaat !!

Link


There is NO way that is a reliable model.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2866
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Snow for NE over Memorial Da Weekend !?!
Say whaaaaat !!

Link
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GFS still showing an EPAC landfall.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2866
Well, I wrote to the Doc yesterday to let him know of my hurricane guide. He wrote back (how does he have the time?) to tell me he enjoyed looking through it, but that he wouldn't be needing it.

Very funny. Everybody's a comedian.
Truthfully, I didn't expect him to even look at, let alone offer up any suggestions, as busy as he is.
But you guys aren't busy. If you were you wouldn't be sittin' on your fanny reading this post!

So help me out, and tell me of some links, pics, videos, whatever, that I should have but don't.

Off to work for me, I get to crawl under a house and play with wires!
Have a great day everyone!
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Any blob updates..anywhere?


No significant blobs.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23751
Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone

Tropics: So here's the thing. Finally got a weekend off. No fishing, no painting, no cleaning. Leaving tomorrow for four days of camping on Water Island. I'm looking at the pile of tools on top of the cistern cover (no, I STILL haven't moved them), knowing that the water is getting low, and the rain that's coming is a good thing; right? Right?

I'm still trying to convince myself, as you can see....

So I'm packing books, mosquito spray (four cans in various forms), more books and sufficient island beverages to get us through what could be a miserable weekend!

Lindy



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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Levi
Holy cow! Lightning just took out a light-bulb less than a quarter mile from my window!

It is an experience for him. :)


The constant lightning, wind, and rain-producing supercells is a big step from the low-topped storms that only produce a few rumbles that he is used to.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2866
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. This was the end of the 0z GFS run last night:





Exactly what "Z" is most trustworthy?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2866
Quoting barbamz:


More weather action for our Levi in Norman, maybe now enjoying his first lightnings. But much less joy for the poor people in the tornado stricken regions unfortunately.


Levi
Holy cow! Lightning just took out a light-bulb less than a quarter mile from my window!

It is an experience for him. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Any blob updates..anywhere?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.