Tornadoes Slam 5-State Area, Killing Two; Outbreak Continues Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on May 20, 2013

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The Midwest U.S. is under the gun again today, as a potent storm system that spawned a preliminary count of 24 tornadoes in five states on Sunday reloads and prepares to dish out another afternoon and evening of atmospheric mayhem. Sunday's tornadoes swept through Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, with Oklahoma bearing the brunt of the assault. The outbreak's only deadly tornado--preliminarily rated as en EF-5 with 166 - 200 mph winds--hit Shawnee, Oklahoma, a town of 30,000 located 35 miles southeast of Oklahoma City. The twister leveled a trailer park, killing two people, and blew a semi-trailer off of an expressway overpass on I-40. At least 21 people were injured and 300 homes destroyed over the five-state area by the tornadoes. The 24 tornadoes from May 19 make it the biggest day for tornadoes in the U.S. this spring, and the highest number reported in one day since January 30, when 44 tornadoes touched down from Georgia to Indiana.


Figure 1. The Shawnee, Oklahoma tornado at 6:44 pm CDT May 19, 2013, as it passed just NW of Shawnee. The tornado killed two people in a mobile home park in Shawnee. Viewer submitted photo. #okwx pic.twitter.com/UCH9e8o9G8 Matt Mahler@themahler


Figure 2. The Shawnee tornado hurled a semi-trailer off of an expressway overpass at Highway 117 and I-40 in Oklahoma, and toppled another semi. Four people who sheltered under this overpass were injured, one seriously, and taken to the hospital. Highway overpasses can act to amplify a tornado's winds, and are very dangerous places to be during a tornado. According to the NWS in Norman Oklahoma, during the tornado outbreak of May 3, 1999, tornadoes crossed three highway overpasses, and at all three locations, there was a fatality. One of the fatalities occurred from an EF-2 tornado in a rural area, which suggests that a tornado need not be a large, violent tornado with a considerable debris cloud to cause fatal injuries to people seeking shelter from storms under overpasses. In addition to the fatal injuries to three people, there were also many severe, potentially life-threatening and gruesome injuries inflicted upon people underneath the overpasses, that in some cases, has left these people with permanent disabilities. Don't take shelter under a highway overpass from a tornado! Image credit: KFOR.com.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image taken at 6:08 pm CDT May 19, 2013 of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Shawnee, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Doppler velocity image taken at 6:08 pm CDT May 19, 2013 of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Shawnee, Oklahoma tornado. Note the couplet of dark red colors right next to light blues near the center of the image, showing that the air was moving both towards the radar and away from it within a short distance, indicating a tight rotation of the tornado's parent mesocyclone.

Iowa's record tornado-free streak ends at 359 days
A tornado touched down near Slater, Iowa at 6:10 pm CDT on Sunday, May 19, one of six tornadoes reported in the state that day. Remarkably, it was the first tornado recorded in the state since May 24, 2012 (Fayette County.) The 359-day streak without a tornado was the longest tornado-free period in state history. The previous record was 355 days, set between May 5, 1955, and April 26, 1956. The new streak is far more impressive because digital technology and spotter networks today are so comprehensive, resulting in far fewer missed tornadoes. There was a much higher likelihood back in the 1950s for tornadoes to be missed. The exceptional tornado-free period was due to the combination of the state's dry summer of 2012 (3rd driest on record) and cold spring of 2013 (8th coldest March - April on record). Thunderstorms like heat and moisture to form, and its tough to get a tornado if you're experiencing a top-ten driest or coldest spring or summer.


Figure 5. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado-spawning supercell thunderstorm that dropped an EF-1 tornado just to the southwest of Wichita, Kansas, on May 19, 2013.

Wichita gets lucky
At 3:30 pm Sunday, Kansas' largest city, Wichita, got a major scare when a large supercell thunderstorm spawned a half-mile wide tornado to the southwest of the city. The tornado headed directly for the airport and downtown Wichita, prompting the issuance of "Tornado Emergency" for the city. In the wake of the deadly EF-5 tornado that leveled Joplin, Missouri in 2011, the NWS decided to give local NWS offices the option to issue special, strongly worded tornado warnings to let the population know when a particularly dangerous tornado--one that has been confirmed by spotters to be on the ground--is approaching. The NWS issued one of these very strongly-worded tornado warnings on Sunday for Wichita:

Statement as of 3:47 PM CDT on May 19, 2013
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for southern Sedgwick County until 415 PM CDT...

... Tornado emergency for Wichita...

At 345 PM CDT... a confirmed large... violent and extremely dangerous tornado was located on the southwest side of Wichita... and moving northeast at 30 mph.

This is a particularly dangerous situation.

Hazard... deadly tornado.

Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact... you could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter. Complete destruction of neighborhoods... businesses and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals.

Locations impacted include...Maize... downtown Wichita... Wichita... Bel Aire... McConnell Air Force Base…east Wichita and Oaklawn.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is an extremely dangerous tornado with complete devastation likely. You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter. Do not delay... seek shelter now! If no underground shelter is available seek shelter in an interior room of the lowest level of a structure... or if time allows... consider moving to an underground shelter elsewhere. Mobile homes and outbuildings will offer no shelter from this tornado.

Tornado... observed
Tornado damage threat... catastrophic
Hail... 2.75in

Wichita TV station KSNW did an excellent job covering the tornado, but were forced to abandon the studio during the height of the storm, as seen on this video clip. You can hear hail pounding the roof as the news crew scrambles for shelter. Station meteorologist J.D. Rudd has this to say: "We are okay. I'll tell you though, it got intense. That thing passed right over our studio. Luckily, it had lifted. But I truly thought the roof of our studio was about to peel off. And the sound of the hail was deafening. What a day. Three hours of coverage with the largest city in the state under a TOR warning for a long time. Weather service called it a Tornado Emergency…'Large, violent tornado on the ground'. Words that gave me chills when I read them." Preliminary damage surveys from the NWS indicate that the Wichita tornado was an EF-1 with a path length 4.6 miles that lifted two miles south of the Wichita airport.


Figure 6. Severe weather outlook for Monday, May 20, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, and portions of surrounding states. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Another big severe weather day today in the Midwest
The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather day again on Monday, with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, plus portions of Southwest Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and extreme North Texas. The highest threat for tornadoes will be in Southern Oklahoma and into North Texas. The severe weather outbreak will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, progressing eastwards into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather is expected those days.


Video 1. Impressive footage (peaking at 4:30 of the video) of the huge tornado that devastated Carney, Oklahoma on May 19, 2013.


Video 2. The "Dominator 3" armored tornado intercept vehicle saw plenty of action on Sunday, as seen in this video, taken just northeast of Edmond, Oklahoma. From the ‪http://tvnweather.com/‬ description of the video: "This tornado was one of the strongest ever intercepted, and we needed all 10,000k pounds of the new Dominator because I have never felt vibration like that before as we were slammed by suction vortices wrapping all around the vehicle. Jim Cantore was on board and he's hooked. All part of #TornadoChasers, Season 2013 coming up this fall on ‪http://tvnweather.com/ondemand‬"

Additional info
Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an interesting post discussing how last Wednesday's Granbury, Texas tornado was able to form in an atmosphere that seemingly had too little wind shear to get a supercell thunderstorm spinning. The Granbury tornado was an EF-4 with 166 - 200 mph winds that killed six people, and was part of a weather system separate from the one that is generating the current Midwest U.S. tornado outbreak.

news9.com out of Oklahoma City had some excellent live helicopter coverage of Sunday's storms, and will likely be out there again today.

Jeff Masters

Severe Thunderstorm Warned 4 (smyezek)
Outflow dominate storms, interesting to watch especially this wall of water that just pushed east. Lots of wind, heavy rains and even some decent size hail (mainly quarter sized, but may have been slightly larger). Intercepted this storm several miles SW of Coin, Ia (Page County). Wall of Water from an outflow dominate storm.
Severe Thunderstorm Warned 4
Don't Try This At Home (taddarkprince)
No Really....Don't try this at home. Pentax K-5 and Tamron 10-24mm Lens.
Don't Try This At Home
Rozel, KS Stovepipe Tornado! (charlesimages)
My first tornado ever in my chasing career, and it's this massive beast! Awesome! Follow my adventures at facebook.com/CharlesimagesStormedia and cistormedia.com!
Rozel, KS Stovepipe Tornado!
Medford, OK (amy1225)
Medford, OK
After the Storm (ctrmom)
Calm after the storm, with lots of birds singing in the background too!
After the Storm

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The rain is bad in WPB!


That upper level Tutt cell draped over Florida (below) with the combination of the sea breeze is combining to create some pretty strong storms along the Florida East Coast..........Baroclinic convection at it's best.

Link
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Good grief.
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Quoting Tazmanian:


you been reported for personal attack





if you guys dont have any thing nic too say about me then dont say nothing if you dont see any thing you dont like in my commets i wish you learn too ignore them and this move on with your posting




for now on say nothing about my commets this is how the bickering starts
Wow, reporting me for personal attack? How is that a personal attack when I got 13 people agreeing with me? And Taz? It's you that creates fights by telling other posters what they can/can't do and acting like a blog police. It's you that need to ignore the posters and let the mods take care of it. I don't want to start a fight and sound like an a-hole, but someone need to tell you this. I know you don't like hearing that, but it's the truth.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7445
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Quoting seminolesfan:


Forecast Sounding for Orlando this afternoon shows healthy low and midlevel lapse rates and significant boundary layer heating at the surface.

Should see some nice inland boomers today!


We got rocked yesterday early morning and then again yesterday afternoon up near Rock Springs. Some extreme lightning came from those storms. Had many strikes hit close to the house.

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

No, just a completely irrelevant WU message. Essentially like a normal spam email, except to my WU account. Just thought it was weird and wondered if anyone else got a spam message this morning too.


No I didn't 1900.
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Forecast Sounding for Orlando this afternoon shows healthy low and midlevel lapse rates and significant boundary layer heating at the surface.

Should see some nice inland boomers today!
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If you live in Central Palm Beach County please stay home as the flooding is very serious there.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1204 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013


PALM BEACH FL-
1204 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY..
.

AT NOON EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES 7 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THIS
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ABERDEEN GOLF
COURSE AND ABERDEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS
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The rain is bad in WPB!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The supercells that develop this afternoon and evening across Oklahoma/Texas will likely be more linear than they were yesterday, and less widespread. However, the discrete or semi-discrete cells we do get will be capable of producing violent tornadoes, extremely large hail, and damaging winds.

Was thinking the same thing too, and apparently so is the SPC, with only the 10% tornado risk and the expanded 45% wind risk at the last update. Like you said though, the discrete storms will remain very dangerous, especially earlier on before cells congeal in my opinion.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm going to bed. If someone can email admin and forward it to them, they will sort it out. We shouldn't be getting spam emails on our WU mail.

Goodnight


I sent it to keeperofthegate a few minutes ago.
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Who wants to participate in my poll on my blog about when will the first named storm will form?

Vote on my blog
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Quoting Torito:


The fact that the word "before" is spelled wrong in both emails makes me suspicious.

I'm going to bed. If someone can email admin and forward it to them, they will sort it out. We shouldn't be getting spam emails on our WU mail.

Goodnight
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The supercells that develop this afternoon and evening across Oklahoma/Texas will likely be more linear than they were yesterday, and less widespread. However, the discrete or semi-discrete cells we do get will be capable of producing violent tornadoes, extremely large hail, and damaging winds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting AussieStorm:

same.... this shouldn't happen, we are a closed network.


The fact that the word "before" is spelled wrong in both emails makes me suspicious.

I replied "STFU, SPAMMER xD" to the message.
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Quoting Torito:


Was it like the one i sent you?

same.... this shouldn't happen, we are a closed network.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I just checked my email. I got one of those weird as spam email. wth is going on? Thought this was a closed network.

Started with

I came across your profile in the site, ()i know we don't know each


YEAH, that one.


I came across your profile in the site, ()i know we don't know each

other befor now,but knowing some one starts a day,my name is pahaly

nechwa,i am a girl and i will like you to contact me with my email(

-email here-) so that we can know each other and i will tell

you about my self and my picture for better understanding.

-email here-
pahaly
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I just checked my email. I got one of those weird as spam email. wth is going on? Thought this was a closed network.


Was it like the one i sent you?
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Expect thunderstorms to become numerous over C & N FL over the coming hours as a UPPER LEVEL LOW tracks south into C FL this evening.

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This has nothing to do with any of the recently discussed topics, but did anyone else get spam WU mail this morning?

Yeah, I just checked my email. I got one of those weird as spam email. wth is going on? Thought this was a closed network.

Started with

I came across your profile in the site, ()i know we don't know each other befor now
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've seen a lot of violent tornadoes before (both in life and on video), but I have to say the motion associated with the Shawnee tornado (via video) yesterday was by far the most violent I have ever seen. The tornado didn't hit a lot of populated areas except the trailer park, so there's not much evidence...if any...of an EF5 rating, but I believe it was of that intensity.

I don't know the validity of the report, but storm chasers were reporting ground scouring right after it last night. Forbes showed pictures of the trees debarked. Would give validity to such a rating. Again, though, NWS won't upgrade without VERY clear evidence.


The rapid rotation is indicative of at least an EF-4, especially for a tornado this large.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I did mention that earlier


sorry, diddnt see it .-.
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Quoting Torito:
That spot on the TCFP map is roaring back to life after being gone for 3 days.


I will never understand why people hug these images.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting Torito:
That spot on the TCFP map is roaring back to life after being gone for 3 days.


I did mention that earlier
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Taz being Taz, posting about an off topic topic and then when people complain he reports them cause he's the blog police, ya know.
Simple thing to do Taz, is to not post anything off topic. Take it to your own blog, not the main blog. Link by saying, Important pc info. Just sayin'

Good luck today everyone in the slight and Moderate area's. Stick close to a radio wx or am. Please head all warning also, don't forget elderly neighbour, they are important too. Look after your community cause one day, they may help you.

Stay well, stay safe.
Goodnight.


Did you get a spam email today? me and 1900hurricane got one.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I dunno... that seemed like bloggerbaiting to me... however, ymmv...


Taz being Taz, posting about an off topic topic and then when people complain he reports them cause he's the blog police, ya know.
Simple thing to do Taz, is to not post anything off topic. Take it to your own blog, not the main blog. Link by saying, Important pc info. Just sayin'

Good luck today everyone in the slight and Moderate area's. Stick close to a radio wx or am. Please head all warning also, don't forget elderly neighbour, they are important too. Look after your community cause one day, they may help you.

Stay well, stay safe.
Goodnight.
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That spot on the TCFP map is roaring back to life after being gone for 3 days.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is a nice definition of what a weather related analog is from the University of Illinois Met Program:

Analog Method:

Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.

Analogs are what you go to when you have no real skill.
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Michigan!!!

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201634Z - 201730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN LOWER MI...AND MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND
SPREAD EWD OVER THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
INITIAL THREAT OF DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY REMAINS
SEMI-DISCRETE...BUT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO PRIMARILY A DMGG WIND THREAT
WITH TIME. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
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I've seen a lot of violent tornadoes before (both in life and on video), but I have to say the motion associated with the Shawnee tornado (via video) yesterday was by far the most violent I have ever seen. The tornado didn't hit a lot of populated areas except the trailer park, so there's not much evidence...if any...of an EF5 rating, but I believe it was of that intensity.

I don't know the validity of the report, but storm chasers were reporting ground scouring right after it last night. Forbes showed pictures of the trees debarked. Would give validity to such a rating. Again, though, NWS won't upgrade without VERY clear evidence.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Alvin gone, but its presence is still here.
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N95W TO 07N115W TO
09N122W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N126W TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 07N132W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W AND FROM 05N TO 11N
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1009 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12.5N123W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N123W TO
15N123W. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA BOUNDED BY 11N-17N BETWEEN 120W-130W. FARTHER WEST...AN
AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT IS NOTED WITH SEAS TO 9
FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-15N W OF 136W. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...EXTENDS ALL THE WAY NE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

$$
GR



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Quoting seminolesfan:
Funny how the blog is reading today:
a)Poster complains about another poster's post.
b)Poster2 complains about another poster's posting of a post complaining about the first posters's post.
c)Original complaining post poster posts a post cautioning other posters about complaining about HIS posts.

I don't envy the mod's job of maintaining sanity here. lol


And through it all, no one even thanked the responder to the original poster's comments for helping resolve the issue...sheesh! SST's are on the upswing!
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NVM i got a spam email like 90 seconds ago.. xD
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ready for the afternoon run here another mod risk day coming up

afternoon all heed warnings today in the risk areas
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52130
Quoting seminolesfan:
Funny how the blog is reading today:
a)Poster complains about another poster's post.
b)Poster2 complains about another poster's posting of a post complaining about the first posters's post.
c)Original complaining post poster posts a post cautioning other posters about complaining about HIS posts.

I don't envy the mod's job of maintaining sanity here. lol


In other words, it's just like any other blog. Welcome to the blogging world. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
nice read doc thanks on this day off monday
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52130
Quoting 1900hurricane:

No, just a completely irrelevant WU message. Essentially like a normal spam email, except to my WU account. Just thought it was weird and wondered if anyone else got a spam message this morning too.


My mail is completely empty except for one email to keeperofthegate.
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Don't make it personal; That is more into the territory of 'bickering' than observational comedy. :P


lol ok xD
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big one from early this morning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52130
Here is a nice definition of what a weather related analog is from the University of Illinois Met Program:

Analog Method:

The Analog Method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past.

For example, suppose today is very warm, but a cold front is approaching your area. You remember similar weather conditions one last week, also a warm day with cold front approaching. You also remember how heavy thunderstorms developed in the afternoon as the cold front pushed through the area. Therefore, using the analog method, you would predict that this cold front will also produce thunderstorms in the afternoon.

The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a perfect analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. However, as time passes and more weather data is archived, the chances of finding a "good match" analog for the current weather situation should improve, and so should analog forecasts.


Link
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Quoting Torito:
Whatever happened to Taz anyway? he hasnt talked in at least an hour now.

Don't make it personal; That is more into the territory of 'bickering' than observational comedy. :P
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Quoting Torito:


you mean the same message multiple times? that happened to me before.

No, just a completely irrelevant WU message. Essentially like a normal spam email, except to my WU account. Just thought it was weird and wondered if anyone else got a spam message this morning too.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS becoming very consistent on the next EPAC storm.

Looks like greater potential impacts with this one.
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GFS becoming very consistent on the next EPAC storm.

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G'morning all. Muggy and warm here in Central Texas. The may severe weather pattern has come in like gang busters accross the midsection. We might be in for a decent hail event tomorrow around this area if conditions materialize as forecasted.
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Quoting Torito:
Whatever happened to Taz anyway? he hasnt talked in at least an hour now.
I dunno... that seemed like bloggerbaiting to me... however, ymmv...
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Massive amounts of smoke and haze in the BOC, heading north

Yeah there is. You can clearly see it on vis.

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Quoting seminolesfan:
Funny how the blog is reading today:
a)Poster complains about another poster's post.
b)Poster2 complains about another poster's posting of a post complaining about the first posters's post.
c)Original complaining post poster posts a post cautioning other posters about complaining about HIS posts.

I don't envy the mod's job of maintaining sanity here. lol
And this is not even season peak yet... lol...

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nice looking wave south of the CV islands. the sal is very reduced this year.thereby increasing sst in the MDR
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This has nothing to do with any of the recently discussed topics, but did anyone else get spam WU mail this morning?


you mean the same message multiple times? that happened to me before.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.