Tornadoes Slam 5-State Area, Killing Two; Outbreak Continues Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on May 20, 2013

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The Midwest U.S. is under the gun again today, as a potent storm system that spawned a preliminary count of 24 tornadoes in five states on Sunday reloads and prepares to dish out another afternoon and evening of atmospheric mayhem. Sunday's tornadoes swept through Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, with Oklahoma bearing the brunt of the assault. The outbreak's only deadly tornado--preliminarily rated as en EF-5 with 166 - 200 mph winds--hit Shawnee, Oklahoma, a town of 30,000 located 35 miles southeast of Oklahoma City. The twister leveled a trailer park, killing two people, and blew a semi-trailer off of an expressway overpass on I-40. At least 21 people were injured and 300 homes destroyed over the five-state area by the tornadoes. The 24 tornadoes from May 19 make it the biggest day for tornadoes in the U.S. this spring, and the highest number reported in one day since January 30, when 44 tornadoes touched down from Georgia to Indiana.


Figure 1. The Shawnee, Oklahoma tornado at 6:44 pm CDT May 19, 2013, as it passed just NW of Shawnee. The tornado killed two people in a mobile home park in Shawnee. Viewer submitted photo. #okwx pic.twitter.com/UCH9e8o9G8 Matt Mahler@themahler


Figure 2. The Shawnee tornado hurled a semi-trailer off of an expressway overpass at Highway 117 and I-40 in Oklahoma, and toppled another semi. Four people who sheltered under this overpass were injured, one seriously, and taken to the hospital. Highway overpasses can act to amplify a tornado's winds, and are very dangerous places to be during a tornado. According to the NWS in Norman Oklahoma, during the tornado outbreak of May 3, 1999, tornadoes crossed three highway overpasses, and at all three locations, there was a fatality. One of the fatalities occurred from an EF-2 tornado in a rural area, which suggests that a tornado need not be a large, violent tornado with a considerable debris cloud to cause fatal injuries to people seeking shelter from storms under overpasses. In addition to the fatal injuries to three people, there were also many severe, potentially life-threatening and gruesome injuries inflicted upon people underneath the overpasses, that in some cases, has left these people with permanent disabilities. Don't take shelter under a highway overpass from a tornado! Image credit: KFOR.com.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image taken at 6:08 pm CDT May 19, 2013 of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Shawnee, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Doppler velocity image taken at 6:08 pm CDT May 19, 2013 of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Shawnee, Oklahoma tornado. Note the couplet of dark red colors right next to light blues near the center of the image, showing that the air was moving both towards the radar and away from it within a short distance, indicating a tight rotation of the tornado's parent mesocyclone.

Iowa's record tornado-free streak ends at 359 days
A tornado touched down near Slater, Iowa at 6:10 pm CDT on Sunday, May 19, one of six tornadoes reported in the state that day. Remarkably, it was the first tornado recorded in the state since May 24, 2012 (Fayette County.) The 359-day streak without a tornado was the longest tornado-free period in state history. The previous record was 355 days, set between May 5, 1955, and April 26, 1956. The new streak is far more impressive because digital technology and spotter networks today are so comprehensive, resulting in far fewer missed tornadoes. There was a much higher likelihood back in the 1950s for tornadoes to be missed. The exceptional tornado-free period was due to the combination of the state's dry summer of 2012 (3rd driest on record) and cold spring of 2013 (8th coldest March - April on record). Thunderstorms like heat and moisture to form, and its tough to get a tornado if you're experiencing a top-ten driest or coldest spring or summer.


Figure 5. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado-spawning supercell thunderstorm that dropped an EF-1 tornado just to the southwest of Wichita, Kansas, on May 19, 2013.

Wichita gets lucky
At 3:30 pm Sunday, Kansas' largest city, Wichita, got a major scare when a large supercell thunderstorm spawned a half-mile wide tornado to the southwest of the city. The tornado headed directly for the airport and downtown Wichita, prompting the issuance of "Tornado Emergency" for the city. In the wake of the deadly EF-5 tornado that leveled Joplin, Missouri in 2011, the NWS decided to give local NWS offices the option to issue special, strongly worded tornado warnings to let the population know when a particularly dangerous tornado--one that has been confirmed by spotters to be on the ground--is approaching. The NWS issued one of these very strongly-worded tornado warnings on Sunday for Wichita:

Statement as of 3:47 PM CDT on May 19, 2013
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for southern Sedgwick County until 415 PM CDT...

... Tornado emergency for Wichita...

At 345 PM CDT... a confirmed large... violent and extremely dangerous tornado was located on the southwest side of Wichita... and moving northeast at 30 mph.

This is a particularly dangerous situation.

Hazard... deadly tornado.

Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact... you could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter. Complete destruction of neighborhoods... businesses and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals.

Locations impacted include...Maize... downtown Wichita... Wichita... Bel Aire... McConnell Air Force Base…east Wichita and Oaklawn.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is an extremely dangerous tornado with complete devastation likely. You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter. Do not delay... seek shelter now! If no underground shelter is available seek shelter in an interior room of the lowest level of a structure... or if time allows... consider moving to an underground shelter elsewhere. Mobile homes and outbuildings will offer no shelter from this tornado.

Tornado... observed
Tornado damage threat... catastrophic
Hail... 2.75in

Wichita TV station KSNW did an excellent job covering the tornado, but were forced to abandon the studio during the height of the storm, as seen on this video clip. You can hear hail pounding the roof as the news crew scrambles for shelter. Station meteorologist J.D. Rudd has this to say: "We are okay. I'll tell you though, it got intense. That thing passed right over our studio. Luckily, it had lifted. But I truly thought the roof of our studio was about to peel off. And the sound of the hail was deafening. What a day. Three hours of coverage with the largest city in the state under a TOR warning for a long time. Weather service called it a Tornado Emergency…'Large, violent tornado on the ground'. Words that gave me chills when I read them." Preliminary damage surveys from the NWS indicate that the Wichita tornado was an EF-1 with a path length 4.6 miles that lifted two miles south of the Wichita airport.


Figure 6. Severe weather outlook for Monday, May 20, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, and portions of surrounding states. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Another big severe weather day today in the Midwest
The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather day again on Monday, with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, plus portions of Southwest Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and extreme North Texas. The highest threat for tornadoes will be in Southern Oklahoma and into North Texas. The severe weather outbreak will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, progressing eastwards into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather is expected those days.


Video 1. Impressive footage (peaking at 4:30 of the video) of the huge tornado that devastated Carney, Oklahoma on May 19, 2013.


Video 2. The "Dominator 3" armored tornado intercept vehicle saw plenty of action on Sunday, as seen in this video, taken just northeast of Edmond, Oklahoma. From the ‪http://tvnweather.com/‬ description of the video: "This tornado was one of the strongest ever intercepted, and we needed all 10,000k pounds of the new Dominator because I have never felt vibration like that before as we were slammed by suction vortices wrapping all around the vehicle. Jim Cantore was on board and he's hooked. All part of #TornadoChasers, Season 2013 coming up this fall on ‪http://tvnweather.com/ondemand‬"

Additional info
Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an interesting post discussing how last Wednesday's Granbury, Texas tornado was able to form in an atmosphere that seemingly had too little wind shear to get a supercell thunderstorm spinning. The Granbury tornado was an EF-4 with 166 - 200 mph winds that killed six people, and was part of a weather system separate from the one that is generating the current Midwest U.S. tornado outbreak.

news9.com out of Oklahoma City had some excellent live helicopter coverage of Sunday's storms, and will likely be out there again today.

Jeff Masters

Severe Thunderstorm Warned 4 (smyezek)
Outflow dominate storms, interesting to watch especially this wall of water that just pushed east. Lots of wind, heavy rains and even some decent size hail (mainly quarter sized, but may have been slightly larger). Intercepted this storm several miles SW of Coin, Ia (Page County). Wall of Water from an outflow dominate storm.
Severe Thunderstorm Warned 4
Don't Try This At Home (taddarkprince)
No Really....Don't try this at home. Pentax K-5 and Tamron 10-24mm Lens.
Don't Try This At Home
Rozel, KS Stovepipe Tornado! (charlesimages)
My first tornado ever in my chasing career, and it's this massive beast! Awesome! Follow my adventures at facebook.com/CharlesimagesStormedia and cistormedia.com!
Rozel, KS Stovepipe Tornado!
Medford, OK (amy1225)
Medford, OK
After the Storm (ctrmom)
Calm after the storm, with lots of birds singing in the background too!
After the Storm

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Quoting Bielle:


Sophos says it is clear.


Lol. The logical thing is to take the warning of the virus as truth and throw your computer as hard as you can onto concrete outside because it's done for anyway. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Torito:


It said that the site was being controlled by remote computers to access your personal information or something like that. Worst Anti virus program ever.


Sorry - I was trying to tease. Good luck with the storm chasing if you are heading out!
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Thank you Dr. Jeff Masters for featuring my stovepipe tornado image from Rozel. I have video of this tornado, and the others that formed after that particular one died as well. Here are a few clips.



It was an amazing chase day!
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Quoting docrod:


snɹıʌ ʇɐɥʍ


˙uosɐǝɹ ou ɹoɟ sıɥʇ buıpɐǝɹ sǝʇnuıɯ 03 ǝʇsɐʍ oʇ ǝʌɐɥ noʎ uǝɥʍ buıʎouuɐ os sʇǝb ʇı zǝǝb
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Wind advisories in NE TX will be fueling the storms in the plains later today


Oh hey I'm under a severe thunderstorm watch, cool.
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I actually think places like the SPC or NWS offices in often affected areas should move to primarily underground and concrete reinforced buildings with their own backup power supplies and saftey features.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting docrod:


snɹıʌ ʇɐɥʍ


It said that the site was being controlled by remote computers to access your personal information or something like that. Worst Anti virus program ever.
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Cluster to west just showing up on Lincoln now ILwthr, think we'll have more from west. Sun blazing at lunch, not sure about gust on site, never felt that much, but.. 81, 29.81",64 dew pt, 6-55? SW. Have a feeling it will get interesting around sunset. Hope most of the precip stays S of 64 for S IL, we've finally been able to get some corn in the ground, but still have a ways to go - .25 to .5 would be much better than the 1 I've seen on the maps. At least they've been able to get some in though, was beginning to wonder if they would.

See you've part of my town's name on your map ILw!
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Quoting Torito:
i remember my old virus blocker telling me once that nasa.gov was a virus site. Pshhhhh...


snɹıʌ ʇɐɥʍ
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Tornado have never hit SPC in Norman, btw.

Has a tornado hit the SPC? Not directly, thankfully! The closest call was on 10 May 2010, when the earliest stages of the east Norman/Little Axe tornado's ground circulation developed a few hundred yards south of the National Weather Center building that now houses SPC. Observers here gazed almost directly upward at the funnel. Other tornadoes could be seen from our previous facility on 3 May 1999 and 4 October 1998, the latter at night, both in the distance in Moore. The 10 May 2010 tornado also passed very close to the 5-cm wavelength, dual-polarization "OU-PRIME" research radar, which captured impressive, high-resolution data (PDF conference paper).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
i remember my old virus blocker telling me once that nasa.gov was a virus site. Pshhhhh...
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Quoting Bielle:


Sophos says it is clear.


Norton, Macafee both say it is safe as well.
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Quoting LargoFl:
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO MY FRIENDS ON HERE...I JUST INSTALLED A MUCH BETTER VIRUS PROTECTION AND IT TELLS ME..THERE IS A MALICIOUS SOFTWARE VIRUS ON THIS SITE...........AS OF THIS MINUTE I WILL NO LONGER POST IN HERE..AS IT IS IM TAKING A HUGE CHANCE POSTING RIGHT NOW..GOOD BYE MY WEB FRIENDS...............


Sophos says it is clear.
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i may go storm chasing in MD/PA if something fires up here today.

Maybe i will find a tornado to video.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I just heard that the NHC is relocating to Montana...


8>)
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Wind advisories in NE TX will be fueling the storms in the plains later today

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Quoting Bluestorm5:


SPC is located there because of Oklahoma University is leading college in severe weather meteorology program. Norman is also Severe Weather Capital of World. Also, they can get tons of data from storm chasers in area. I'm sure I'm missing many more reasons.


I know all of that but they escape getting destroyed once a year..Chaser data can still be relayed.
The University of Oklahoma is the main reason they are there, alont with nws norman and others.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK INTO NWRN TX AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201726Z - 201930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALL POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM KS INTO N TX.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN
KS INTO NRN OK AND BENDING SWWD W OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. FARTHER
SW...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NWRN TX...ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SW
ACROSS W TX.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK
INTO SERN KS WHERE A DEEP MOIST LAYER EXISTS. GIVEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THIS AREA COULD BE
WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS.

TO THE S...AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH AN INCREASING
CU FIELD FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...AS WELL AS
HODOGRAPH AUGMENTATION NEAR THE SFC FRONT WILL AID IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL. HP SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND
POSSIBLE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWS...AND RAPIDLY
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ERN OK LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

The larger the tornado, the faster the winds must appear to be in order for you to have the same ground speed. So "especially for a tornado this large" actually wouldn't make as much sense as "especially for a tornado this small."


Everyone's a critic. :P
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167
Everyone in kansas, and anywhere else here, stay safe today. These are the kind of storms you do not want to mess with.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Yet again, the storms find a way to miss me. Starting to see a line of convection break out near the Illinois/Indiana border. I would not be surprised to see at least a severe thunderstorm watch for Indiana here very quickly.



Yeah it looks like a line might try to fire down there in East Central Illinois, I'm looking at maybe around the Mattoon/Effingham area. Wouldn't be shocked if that started extending Northeastward as well.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
You know...if I was the SPC...i wouldnt have been in OK and MO....prob would have relocated to pennsylvania or nevada or california or something.


SPC is located there because of Oklahoma University is leading college in severe weather meteorology program. Norman is also Severe Weather Capital of World. Also, they can get tons of data from storm chasers in area. I'm sure I'm missing many more reasons.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Bourbon county getting so many threats today.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
southeastern Kansas
western and central Missouri

* effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
several tornadoes possible
numerous damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
several large hail events likely with a few very large hail
events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 115 statute
miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of
Columbia Missouri to 45 miles west southwest of Joplin Missouri.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou0).

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.


Other watch information... continue... ww 189...

Discussion... severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
surface cold front and remnant outflow boundary across the watch
area during the next few hours... before congealing into one or more
organized clusters later this afternoon. Before upscale growth
occurs... a few supercells are possible... accompanied by a risk for
tornadoes... in addition to large hail. Thereafter... damaging wind
gusts may become the more prominent threat.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
500. Mean storm motion vector 24040.


... Kerr


Areal Flood WarningStatement as of 8:58 AM CDT on May 20, 2013
The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flood Warning for small streams in...
eastern Bourbon County in southeast Kansas...
northwestern Vernon County in west central Missouri...

* until 300 PM CDT Monday.

* At 852 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
that overnight rainfall was producing flooding across the warned
area. Doppler radar has estimated that several inches of rainfall
has occurred.

* Runoff from this rain is causing flooding. Creeks... streams and low
water crossings will be especially susceptible to the dangers of
flooding.

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...

Highway 54 3 miles east of Deerfield...
Route kk at Dry Wood creek 5 miles northwest of Moundville...
Route v at the Osage river just north of Stotesbury.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or has been reported.
Stream rises will be slow and flash flooding is not expected.
However... all interested parties should take necessary precautions
immediately.


Lat... Lon 3787 9490 3804 9464 3804 9463 3806 9461
3806 9427 3804 9423 3806 9421 3805 9419
3806 9414 3768 9459 3768 9498


Griffin




Flash Flood WatchStatement as of 12:48 PM CDT on May 20, 2013
... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 8 PM CDT this evening
through Tuesday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Kansas and Missouri... including the
following areas... in southeast Kansas... Bourbon... Cherokee
and Crawford. In Missouri... Barry... Barton... Benton...
Camden... Cedar... Christian... Dade... Dallas... Dent... Douglas...
Greene... Hickory... Howell... Jasper... Laclede... Lawrence...
Maries... McDonald... Miller... Morgan... Newton... Oregon...
Ozark... Phelps... Polk... Pulaski... Shannon... St. Clair...
stone... Taney... Texas... Vernon... Webster and Wright.

* From 8 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning

* additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon into early Tuesday across portions of
extreme southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Heavy
rainfall will be possible across the region. Total rainfall
amounts of one to two inches with locally higher amounts near
three inches will be possible. The heaviest rainfall this
evening and tonight is generally expected to occur along and
south of the Interstate 44 corridor.

* This excessive rainfall may result in flash flooding of small
streams... low water crossings... and other flood prone areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.





Local Storm Report

05/19/2013 1012 PM

Fort Scott, Bourbon County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60.00 mph, reported by public.


Penny sized hail also reported.




05/19/2013 1015 PM

Fort Scott, Bourbon County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


Tree reported down across Franklin street in Fort Scott.
Nickel sized hail also reported one mile southeast of
town.




05/19/2013 1015 PM

Fort Scott, Bourbon County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


Tree reported down across Franklin street in Fort Scott.
Nickel sized hail also reported one mile southeast of
town.





05/19/2013 1012 PM

Fort Scott, Bourbon County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by public.


Penny sized hail also reported.



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234. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
You know...if I was the SPC...i wouldnt have been in OK and MO....prob would have relocated to pennsylvania or nevada or california or something.


That is probably why they are there... it makes sense to have the severe specialists where the severe weather occours ...
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Hi - seems to be a lot of anxiety around here today.

I see the GFS has switched back to Havana Daydreaming instead of Tampico Trauma in the latest run.

Link

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You know...if I was the SPC...i wouldnt have been in OK and MO....prob would have relocated to pennsylvania or nevada or california or something.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Yet again, the storms find a way to miss me. Starting to see a line of convection break out near the Illinois/Indiana border. I would not be surprised to see at least a severe thunderstorm watch for Indiana here very quickly.



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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the 12z GFS precipitation forecast for the Caribbean and it continues to look wet until the end of the month. Is possible it may be overdoing the rain totals but we will see if it occurs.


Maybe either way I know we are going to get a ton of rain here in Grand Cayman
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Quoting MrstormX:


Translation: "I installed a random anti-virus software which I will not name, which tells me there is a virus on this site that I will also not name, and though I know there is a virus on this site I will post anyways though it might infect my computer."

^Does that make any sense to you?
Not to me. :)
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Quoting LargoFl:
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO MY FRIENDS ON HERE...I JUST INSTALLED A MUCH BETTER VIRUS PROTECTION AND IT TELLS ME..THERE IS A MALICIOUS SOFTWARE VIRUS ON THIS SITE...........AS OF THIS MINUTE I WILL NO LONGER POST IN HERE..AS IT IS IM TAKING A HUGE CHANCE POSTING RIGHT NOW..GOOD BYE MY WEB FRIENDS...............
Um... I'm 100% sure WUnderground is safe to use. You don't have to leave just because your virus program told you to,
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Quoting LargoFl:
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO MY FRIENDS ON HERE...I JUST INSTALLED A MUCH BETTER VIRUS PROTECTION AND IT TELLS ME..THERE IS A MALICIOUS SOFTWARE VIRUS ON THIS SITE...........AS OF THIS MINUTE I WILL NO LONGER POST IN HERE..AS IT IS IM TAKING A HUGE CHANCE POSTING RIGHT NOW..GOOD BYE MY WEB FRIENDS...............
Be careful of what you trust as far as AV scanners go. Depending on software settings some client side java will trigger alerts. Did you pay money for this new tool Largo? (Avast is a great free tool!)
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Quoting LargoFl:
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO MY FRIENDS ON HERE...I JUST INSTALLED A MUCH BETTER VIRUS PROTECTION AND IT TELLS ME..THERE IS A MALICIOUS SOFTWARE VIRUS ON THIS SITE...........AS OF THIS MINUTE I WILL NO LONGER POST IN HERE..AS IT IS IM TAKING A HUGE CHANCE POSTING RIGHT NOW..GOOD BYE MY WEB FRIENDS...............


Translation: "I installed a random anti-virus software which I will not name, which tells me there is a virus on this site that I will also not name, and though I know there is a virus on this site I will post anyways though it might infect my computer."

^Does that make any sense to you?
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Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1m
Flying to Norman, OK today. Tornadoes damaged a town very close by yesterday. More severe wx expected today. My first real trip to lower 48.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


probably not...first of all its very likely it would hit a tree....and second, grass destruction/ground scouring would could lead to higher rating such as ef2-4. Ef0s and ef4s do not do the same thing to grass and dirt.
I believe ground scouring is only for EF5. Pavement being peeled and trees getting debarked completely is another example of EF5 damage. In El Reno tornado, most of support for EF5 damage came from trees being debarked, pavement being peeled, and ground scouring. Couple of well-built buildings also suffered EF5 damage as well, but it was the tree, pavement, and ground that supported EF5 damage the most.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Anyone knows when four consecutive Moderate Risk days occurred in past years?
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Quoting LargoFl:
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO MY FRIENDS ON HERE...I JUST INSTALLED A MUCH BETTER VIRUS PROTECTION AND IT TELLS ME..THERE IS A MALICIOUS SOFTWARE VIRUS ON THIS SITE...........AS OF THIS MINUTE I WILL NO LONGER POST IN HERE..AS IT IS IM TAKING A HUGE CHANCE POSTING RIGHT NOW..GOOD BYE MY WEB FRIENDS...............


Chill, man. Just use your work computer.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ANTRIM COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SOUTHEASTERN LEELANAU COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 136 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAWN...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRAVERSE CITY...ELK RAPIDS...TRAVERSE CITY STATE PARK...FOUCH...
GREILICKVILLE...BINGHAM...MAPLETON...SUTTONS BAY...PESHAWBESTOWN...
OLD MISSION...KEWADIN...CLAM RIVER...OMENA AND BATES.

...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
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Quoting LargoFl:
hello south florida...stay safe down there,i hear its raining buckets full down there...please sendf a bucket or two up here will ya lol....kidding aside..stay safe with that street flooding etc.

Looks like a nice cluster of N-to-S boomers moving your way later on Largo, but seems some Tampa Shield action going on though...
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IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO MY FRIENDS ON HERE...I JUST INSTALLED A MUCH BETTER VIRUS PROTECTION AND IT TELLS ME..THERE IS A MALICIOUS SOFTWARE VIRUS ON THIS SITE...........AS OF THIS MINUTE I WILL NO LONGER POST IN HERE..AS IT IS IM TAKING A HUGE CHANCE POSTING RIGHT NOW..GOOD BYE MY WEB FRIENDS...............
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216. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropicsweatherpr 5:38 PM GMT on May 20, 2013


I rapidly deleited it.


okay.
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Update for Tuesday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN TX...EXTREME SERN
OK...CENTRAL AND SRN AR...AND NWRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS DRIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS GRADUALLY
WHILE AN UPSTREAM COLD LOW DROPS SEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT NOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING NEWD AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NRN PLAINS UPPER LOW. IN THE SOUTHEAST...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY EWD
AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY SWWD INTO OK AND TX WILL
DRIFT SEWD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY 1 OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL RESULT IN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ON
TUESDAY.

...AR/SERN OK/NERN AND CENTRAL TX...
MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLES/
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE OVER PARTS OF AR/OK AND NRN TX
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SERN AR INTO NERN/NORTH CENTRAL TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S...AND WITH ENHANCED DIABATIC
HEATING ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PRE-EXISTING
MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG IS
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...STORM
INITIATION IS EXPECTED FROM SERN OK/SWRN AR INTO PARTS OF NRN TX
NEAR THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP SWWD NEAR/AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TX...WITH ALL ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 20-25 KT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER WITH HEIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE BY EVENING WITH SEVERAL QLCS/S FORMING
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY 03-6Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL TEMPORARILY
STABILIZE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE SURFACE PATTERN WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THIS AREA DURING THE
MORNING...BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL PERMIT REGIONS OF ENHANCED DIABATIC
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AMIDST A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KT WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SEPARATE BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARCING ACROSS
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/WRN MA...
GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED NWD AWAY FROM THE
WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
IF LARGER INSTABILITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEVELOPS...AN UPGRADE
TO SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..WEISS.. 05/20/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1732Z (1:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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This one will miss me to the north by a slim margin. It's already starting though, and I'm still mostly sunny which can only add to the instability. Temps in the mid/upper 80's and dew points in the upper 60's right now.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The rapid rotation is indicative of at least an EF-4, especially for a tornado this large.

The larger the tornado, the faster the winds must appear to be in order for you to have the same ground speed. So "especially for a tornado this large" actually wouldn't make as much sense as "especially for a tornado this small."
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3200

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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