Message from Jeff and Gamma Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2005

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Dr. Masters was nice enough to write you all a blog entry before he left for vacation. Enjoy what he wrote along with a Gamma Update below.

Message from Dr. Masters

It's probably premature to talk about this, since we may still see more tropical storms this season, but was this year's total of 24 Atlantic tropical storms really a record? It is almost certainly a record for the number of storms since the year 1944. That was the year that the U.S. began flying regular long-range aircraft reconnaissance missions over the Atlantic to detect tropical storms far out over the ocean. According to Dr. Chris Landsea's paper, A Climatology of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes, only a very few short-lived tropical storms that formed far out over the open Atlantic were missed by these aircraft missions or ships plying the shipping lanes between Europe and North America. Beginning 1960, weather satellites gave us full coverage of all the ocean areas, and it is unlikely we missed any tropical storms after then. Looking at the tracks for the 2005 hurricane season, only Tropical Storm Lee may have been short-lived enough to not be detected by aircraft and ships. Similar examinations of the hurricane tracks of storms from the past ten years yields an average of perhaps one storm per year that may have been missed. However, for the period 1851-1910, the Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project estimates that the number of missed tropical storms and hurricanes for the 1851-85 era is on the order of 0-6 per year and on the order of 0-4 per year for the period of 1886 to 1910. (The higher detection for the latter period is due to increased ship traffic, larger populations along the coastlines and more meteorological measurements being taken.) There were no years in the the 1851-1885 period with more than 12 tropical storms. But 1887 had 19 tropical storms, so there is a small chance that 1887 tied 2005 with 23 storms if the maximum of four missed storms occurred.


Figure 1. Tracks for all 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclones.

During the 1910-1944 era, there is one other year that might have challenged 2005 for the record number of storms--1933, when 21 tropical storms formed. If we assume that increased ship traffic since the 1886-1910 era resulted in 0-3 tropical storms being missed during 1933, there is a 25% chance that 1933 bested 2005 for the busiest season on record, if a full three storms went undetected. Hurricanes are much harder to hide than tropical storms, though, since hurricanes last longer and typically have long tracks that multiple ships will encounter. Thus, it is likely that this year's tally of 13 hurricanes is unmatched since 1851. There were only 10 hurricanes in 1933, and 11 in 1887.

So in conclusion, the 23 storms and 13 hurricanes observed in 2005 were both very probably records for the post-1850 time period for the Atlantic. There may have been years before 1851 that had greater levels of activity, as the emerging science of paleotempestology is attempting to discover.

Jeff Masters

Gamma Update
Satellite imagery showed an increase in convection north of the storm's center early, but has since decreased once again. The storm center was located at 16.9N 86.2W at 1 a.m. EST with sustained winds at 45 mph. This is 140 miles east-southeast of Belize City.
High pressure north of the storm is expected to weaken, allowing a trough currently over the Plains to sweep the storm on a more northern course. Some strengthening of the system is possible, but wind shear is still high so any further intensification will be limited.

Figure 2. Computer models for Tropical Storm Gamma.
A couple of the (GFS and UKMET) are out to lunch, keeping the storm system in the western Caribbean and dissipating it. The latest run of the GFDL has trended more to the east, keeping the system's center off the Yucatan Peninsula, tracking it over western Cuba and through the Florida Straits. As far as Florida, this model run takes the storm farther south than the run earlier on Friday.
The NHC official forecast trends toward the GFL as the BAM model appears to be too far to the west, taking the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the coast of Belize where heavy rainfall is also expected. Warnings are also in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

I will be back later Saturday with another update.

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177. LakeWorthFinn
10:25 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
new blog up
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7292
176. NOLAinNC
10:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Yes, Asheville is amazing. We head to the beach a couple of times a year. I miss being close to the water. Where are you?
175. hurricanechaser
10:21 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Thats awesome NOlainNC,

Ashevile is gorgeous and I wish we could get some of yoursnow here along the beaches.:)

174. seflagamma
10:21 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Chaser,
You got Mail !
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40890
173. hurricanechaser
10:19 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
sorry boldman..been blog hopping..I responded to you in my blog and yors..lol..

I am probably gonna get a nap soon myself..lol
172. hurricanechaser
10:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
ok your wish is my command dear Gamma,lol

I appreciate your thoughtfulness and completely agree with you. :)
171. theboldman
10:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
mybahamas i still listen to megathumpa sometimes
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
170. NOLAinNC
10:17 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Yes, Chaser. Asheville, NC. I'm from New Orleans originally. I've been here about 4.5 years.
169. theboldman
10:15 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
nce to see you as well hows it going
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
168. seflagamma
10:14 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hurricanechaser,
You know I Love you to death but If you apologize one more time I will "attack" you myself!!!! LOL LOL LOL
Take care and we love your input into these blogs!
Smile and quit apologizing. Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40890
167. hurricanechaser
10:11 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hey Gamma,

I know I am one you have to be referring to because thats what I've done simply because I've moved on but others keep bringing it back up and I am not one that backs down from bullies or will allow anyone who misrepresnts my well intentions to be considered otherwise. I don't have to restate how I take responsibility for my actions and apologize sincerely for my part in past conflicts..I agree enough is enough already! thanks.
166. mybahamas
10:10 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
hiya cgablesgal :)
Good to see ya! Everything is pretty kosher here. We had like two solid weeks of great weather due to high pressure systems over us; so the cloudiness and rain now seems almost alien. ;)
I do hope that if the shear and front doesn't kill Gamma, an unpopulated area of Cuba's mountains does the job. :)
The only bad thing is that the islands it is appearing to head to now have salt as a major product (Morton Salt) and the heavy rain could through a monkey wrench in the works. During Katrina, they lost millions of $$ in product. :(
The best to all of you. :)
165. hurricanechaser
10:09 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
youre soi welcome noLAinNC,

can I assume that you might also live in NC by your screen name?
164. seflagamma
10:04 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
cgables, have a great time tonight, know you are looking forward to going to the game. and YOU GO GIRL! loved your soapbox post!

I too get so very tired of those 3 page long apology and explaination posts from our dear friends here that we all love very much. And they keep reappearing all over the place time after time the same reposts. Enough of all of the past I mean PAST misunderstanding and Please stop thinking that you have to write a long explaination each time it happens...I don't want people to be run off of these blogs either. There's been time's my feelings were hurt, but I hope it was not meant on purpose. Now I will stop! LOL

Bahamas, now that we are in the clear in S Forida, I am really pulling that a very weak TS Gamma will disappear entirely and spare all of the Bahamas; like us, you have all been thru alot also.

Let's all get ready for some good Thanksgiving Days this coming up week! I am ready for this workday to end; because I will be on vacation next week, not returning to work until Next Saturday, 11/26. YEAH!!!
Can't wait to go home tonight and have a nice glass of wine!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40890
163. NOLAinNC
9:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Super explanation chaser, thanks so much.
162. hurricanechaser
9:57 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
hey Boldman,
Nice as always to see you on here..how are you feeling this afternoon..watching football, etc.?
161. hurricanechaser
9:56 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hey noainNC,

Im sorry that I just noticed your question..a trough is simply a dip in the upper level jet stream winds (fast moving columns of air that dictate the progression of all weather systems) which in this case is being caused by a strong cold front which is the dividing line between two contrasting air masses (i.e. warmer air in front and cold air behind the front) I hope this helps explain it better. Thank you for your kind comments and you are very welcome.:)
160. theboldman
9:50 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
hello so is this true that gamma is not going for flordia the track is bahamas now
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
159. NOLAinNC
9:46 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hello boldman!
158. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:46 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
theboldman hi there

this to give you a up date of what going on her atmosweather is not going to with us no more
157. NOLAinNC
9:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Chaser, what is a trough? I know this is a basic question, but I find the explanations on this blog are easier to understand than elsewhere. Thanks for posting.
156. cgableshurrycanegal
9:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
am going to be heading out to the UM/GeorgiaTech game in a bit. Keep good thoughts for me, as I'm taking a rain poncho, and would rather sit on it than wear it!!! ::VBG:: Got an invite and it's been YEARS since I've been to the Orange Bowl! This is the game postponed thanx to Wilma!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
155. theboldman
9:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
helll all whats up
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
154. hurricanechaser
9:37 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Back to the weather..

Here is a portion from my latest updated blog entry on my best educated GUESS as I always say regarding my expectations for Gamma during the next few days..,

Where Will Gamma Go And How strong Will It be?

Honestly, not much has changed in my initial expectation as it appears that this storm should soon move further north and encounter increasing shear after about 12 to 24 hours which will limit any possible intensification. Likewise, this shear will be the result of a strong trough which is currently digging south and eastward toward the gulf and will eventually steer Gamma on a NE to ENE motion as the upper level wind flow will be out of the SW. Therefore, I expect this Tropical Storm to remain south of the Florida Pennisula and remain a weak tropical storm. To be more specific, my best educated GUESS is that Gamma will move acrossed Cuba, stay South and East of the Fl. keys and pass through some areas of the Bahamas as a transitioning extratropical storm (meaning it will become a cold core low pressure area) before possibly being absorbed by a much stronger developing Baroclonic low that the models are forecasting to develop as the strong cold front pushes to the east during the next few days.
As always, thank you so much for reading this blog and I hope to talk with each of you again soon. In the meantime, please feel free to leave comments,any questions, or simply congrigate here to fellowship with other members of this wonderful community in my blog if you like. Thanks again and God bless each of you.

153. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:36 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
atmosweather do not do this there been a lot of time on her that i feel that i was not welcome here but they tell me to stay around they like me a lot and so i stay so come on back and give it one more ch ok atmosweather i like you a lot and so dos ever one on her so come back if not then i see you around some time and be safe and some time around stop by my blog this to say hi and some time you and i can talk so come back and gvie it one more ch you are all ways welcome here is that right ever one hmmm?


did any one see my?
152. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
well is see thank you for leting me no DR.M i hop that you are keeping a eye on this ts and i hop this do not pop up to any more then a ts so stay safe and keep a i on it

151. hurricanechaser
9:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hey Baha,

That was a very well written and extremely thoughtful plea for Atmos to stay and I couldn't agree with that more. Thats what I did and it certainly helped. When he does return which I pray he will..people don't need to rehash something that should be in the past..it just reopens old wounds.
150. Fshhead
9:33 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
yes cgablesgal
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
149. cgableshurrycanegal
9:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
fshhead, you in MIA?
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
148. cgableshurrycanegal
9:29 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hiya, MyBaha!
Been thinking about you and your islands and how things are going! Hope thing dissipates by then!!!
DIE TS GAMMA DIE!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
147. cgableshurrycanegal
9:28 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
KRWZ, the cone takes TS Gamma well to the north of PR, as of right now, which is where he is vacationing.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
146. Fshhead
9:28 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
no I am fshhead cause I am Fla Marlins baseball fan LOL but thanx for the tip on the band. I like music & will check them out.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
145. mybahamas
9:27 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hiya from The Bahamas :)

Hiya BahaHurican. Good call! :)
I hope that Gamma stays well south of the northern Bahamas because I don't think that Grand Bahama could even handle a tropical depression righ now. :(
The best to all in this (still-going) hurricane season. :)
144. BahaHurican
9:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
For Atmosweather,

I have only just started at wunderground, but I have been posting in nntp newsgroups since 1999. I have never felt that a regular poster leaving a group because of an argument was productive for the group. In the end, the larger group (often lurkers) don't get the benefit of intelligent commentary, while a smaller group feels emotionally satisfied for what usually turns out to be a very short while. I have not been privileged to read many of your comments as yet, but in my opinion, if you have make worthwhile contributions in the past, you should continue to do so in the future. As someone else has implied, we are all "big" people here. Even if we disagree, we should all still be able to share the board.

On the other hand, sometimes a temporary withdrawal from a tense situation can be helpful in moderating emotions and giving you a chance to distance yourself from an untenable position. Sometimes when the level of emotions becomes raised, people say or do things that they would not otherwise consider; this is especially true when the person under attack is on the other side of a keyboard and screen. So I can understand your actions from that perspective.

I hope you will continue to make contributions in the future, but I can respect your desire to distance yourself, at least temporarily, from the whole fracas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
143. hurricanechaser
9:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
In my humble opinion..I think there are simply too many competing personalities trying to out forecast the other...we all are here because of our love and interet for weather and we ALL can learn something valuable from the OTHER regardless of our experience, knowledge, or education.

Why can't everyone simply respect one another, accept sincre apologies, and move forward treating others as they wish to be treated..ok, thats my two cents worth..now back to the weather discussions.
142. NOLAinNC
9:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Radiators are a band, some of their fans call themselves Fishheads. They are from New Orleans. I guess it does sound strange out of context!
141. Fshhead
9:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
hmmm not sure what a radiator fan is LOL. so I cannot answer
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
140. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
did ever one her where DR.M was going on vacation i no now the Cone is out of FL but now look at the Cone now
139. hurricanechaser
9:22 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
I will also post my response to Atmos since he referenced me here and posted in on the blog as well/. Don't care for any further misunderstanding..too much of that already as you so accurately noed in your comments CoralCables.

Hey Atmos,

First and foremost I want to apologize for misinterpreting your appparent comments the other night that I thought implied that I was the agressor with Lefty. I agree that arguments are two way affairs. Where I disagree adamently is that I didn't once resort to name calling, cursing and the like. Moreover, I apologized numerous times that night and since to Lefty and he refused to either accept my apology nor offer one himself which was certainly necessary. It appears you should be able to empathize with me considering your difficulties with others on here also originated as a sincere and thoughtful effort to resolve an argument amongst others, so I still will never understand how you or anyone else can think so highly of Lefty. To me, its far more important to be respectful of others than sharing my knowledge about storms. In your case, I completely understand how you feel because thats exactly what I've had to endure myself.

However, on a far more important subject to me personally, I sincerely hope that you will come to the same conclusion as I have that I simply don't desire to have any further unecessary conflicts on here and only got upset the other night when I see continued misrepresentation of the confrontation I had with Lefty. Very few if any have held Lefty responsible for his behavior yet portray me as insensitive which I am far from being in contrast to Leftys apparent behavior. In short, I was encouraged by a few that they wished I would reconsider leaving the community for they truly valued my input and that in some ways I was being selfish since they knew of others who needed my advice. This being said, its obvious that the same is true concerning you and its obvious that you are a very intelligent person with a gift for forecasting and are a huge asset to many on here. I for one thoroughly enjoyed your 2006 hurricane outlook and look forward to your future updates. In conclusion, I apologize sincerely for any and all hardship my misinterpretation may have caused you and I appreciate the comments you wrote in response in my blog. Thats shows alot of character on your part and I respect you greatly for it. So, please don't leave the community because we do appreciate your valued opinion and that will remain the case. Regarding Lefty, my frustration exists because he hasn't ever or isn't willing to ever accept responsibilty for inflicting verbal abuse on others and I certainly wasn't the first and have received many comments from others who have felt intimidated to offer their thoughts because they said Lefty attacked them with verbal barrages insulting their forecasts calling them idiots, etc. Moreover, others have thanked me for taking a stand against Leftys actions and I did that because we should all treat others as we wish to be treated. The reason you and I feel so mistreated for lack of a better word and misunderstood is a result of the fact most don't care about a persons feelings just simply their own selves. I apologize for rambling a little too much here, the simple point I want to make is that I hope you reconsider and I look forward to talking with you again soon.

Thanks,
Tony
Hurricanechaser
138. hurricanechaser
9:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hey Coralgablesgirl,

I couldn't agre with you more and I believe my comments reiterate your point of view. Thats why I repeatedly tried to resolve the issue with Lefty apologizing numerous times for my part our conflict. Honestly, my frustration bore out of him not only not accepting my apology when I didn't resort to name calling and cursing but yet he didn't feel the need to apologize for his actions. Feel free to visit Atmos blog and read my response to his comments regarding his desire to leave the community.
137. NOLAinNC
9:17 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Fish, are you a Radiators fan?
136. NOLAinNC
9:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Years ago, tire companies lobbied against public transportation in cities because they wanted more folks to buy cars (and tires). In America, we use many times more oil per capita than any other industrialized nation. We own more and bigger cars and live in the largest houses and YET we have the worst public schools and the worst healthcare system by far. I LOVE this country, but we have let corporate greed ruin everything we stand for. I guess I'm on the soapbox, too
135. Fshhead
9:13 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
well said cgableshurrycanegal!!!! This should be neutral territory!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
134. Fshhead
9:10 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
good point NOLAinNC. When are people in this world going to realize that the gasoline is one of the biggest factors contributing to this warming. What burns me is we can get energy from so many other resources its not even funny. They complain that it is to costly to convert. Hmmmm... seems to me if we do not convert then we might not be a species on this planet anymore so cost kinda goes out the window.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
133. cgableshurrycanegal
9:08 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Gonna get on a soapbox for a moment so everyone bear with me.
I've watched a lot of tempers flare on different blogs. I've seen misunderstandings occur.
We have lost some pretty good folks from this particular blog which I think is a shame.
When people write their thoughts down it is NOT the same as the spoken word face-to-face. Expression and intonation add a great deal to how words are taken. Too many people fly off the handle when reading the written word and perhaps take offense where none was intended. Then, again, ::G:: there HAVE been instances where it HAS been intended. I know, I've been the recipient of some really nasty comments. I, however, refuse to be chased off of any space where I choose to be. That would be capitulating to (in my case I considered them) petty terrorists. Why should I leave a medium I enjoy because there are some few folks who are foul-dispositioned? ::VBG:: My sweet revenge is that I only run into them for a little bit here or there while they have to live with themselves 24/7/365.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that it is a shame that in the short time I've been blogging I've seen talented, charismatic people up and leave. If nowhere else, I would think that Dr. Master's bolg should be considered neutral territory. If anyone has a beef, take it off this blog and to the personal mail boxes. If it's REALLY bad, do as I did in more than one case. Report the individual to ADMIN and be done with it.
Life is too short and we all have something we can learn from one another. Be it climatology, patience, history or a bit of fun trivia, soak it up!
Now, trust me on this. I am NO Rebecca of SunnyBrook Farm. Any of you backs me repeatedly into a corner I'm going to make you SO sorry you have no idea. I don't tolerate intolerance, bullies or pushiness. For the most part that doesn't seem to exist here, and when I see it flare up I sit back and weigh my answer.
I would hope that we could all agree that THIS PARTICULAR BLOG, Dr. Jeff Master's, be neutral ground. Take your anger and venom elsewhere, so that all feel free to comment and NOT leave off commenting, no matter who it is.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
132. Fshhead
9:05 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
WOOO HOOOO That new track looks REAL good!!! You guys think it will still be a storm if it goes across Cuba?? Alot of mountains there to break it up.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
131. NOLAinNC
9:04 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Thanks for the applause, Fish. Speaking of global warming, one of the networks is getting ready to capitalize on the concept by airing a "benefit concert" LOL, I wonder if they'll advertise SUV's during the show!
130. BahaHurican
9:03 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Hey MYBAHAMAS,

I'm just getting on again. I see my prediction from yesterday seems to be coming true (i. e. across Cuba). When Michelle came through here a few years ago that was the only thing that saved us, the central mountains of Cuba.

I'm hoping the shear stays high so that development is limited.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
129. Fshhead
9:01 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
Gotta say I am new here so not sure if my opinion counts but, I think Atmosweather sometimes u just have to ignore some people. You seem very knowledgable & we need as much thinking about these storms as possible. The paper here said how bad the weather services have been choked by the govt. cutting the funding etc... ALL thinking is good to help us in time of need!!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
127. snowboy
8:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2005
I agree with seflagamma, mouseybabe etc - stick around atmos your sage advice has been most appreciated
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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