Mahasen not Strengthening; Eastern Pacific's First Tropical Depression Forming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Mahasen in the Bay of Bengal continues to show little change as it steams north-northeastward at 14 mph towards the Bangladesh coast just north of the border with Myanmar. Though the storm is no longer expected to reach hurricane strength, Mahasen's storm surge and heavy rains represent a significant threat to people living in low-lying areas along the Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts. At least 70,000 people have been asked to evacuate, and a boat carrying refugees capsized on Monday, killing eight and leaving 50 missing. The ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths on the Bangladeshi coast, and Mahasen is expected to bring a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet (1 - 1.5 meters) to the Bangladesh coast on Thursday, according to the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Delhi, India. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is warning of a 5 - 7 foot (2 meter) storm surge for their coastal districts. The greatest storm surge will occur to the right of where the center crosses the coast, in northern Myanmar. The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology is warning of a 6 - 10 foot (2 - 3 meter) storm surge there. Accompanying the surge will be torrential rains of 3 - 7 inches that have the potential to cause dangerous flooding. At least seven people have been killed in Sri Lanka due to landslides triggered by Mahasen's heavy rains.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 07:45 UTC Wednesday May 15, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. The storm appears disorganized due to wind shear keeping the heavy thunderstorms to the west of the center. Image credit: NASA.

The 10 am EDT Wednesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds near 50 mph. Satellite loops show that Mahasen continues to struggle with wind shear. The low-level circulation center has become exposed to view several times, with an intense area of thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops just to the west of the center. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. Wind shear remains a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but Mahasen is now over cooler waters with a much reduced total heat content, and it appears unlikely that the storm will change much in intensity before landfall. Landfall is expected to occur near 18 UTC on Thursday.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 12 UTC May 14, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 7" are expected along a wide swath of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.


Figure 3. Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal. The shallow waters of the Continental Shelf (mostly shallower than 200 meters) are shaded whitish-grey. From Kolkata, India to Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, the ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths. Fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar, bringing catastrophic storm surges. Image credit: geomapapp.org.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Invest 90E.

First tropical depression of the year forming in the Eastern Pacific
The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15 (today!), and Mother Nature is playing along with this idea. The first "Invest" of the year, Invest 90E, has become well-organized on satellite loops, and NHC has set in motion the process to name this system Tropical Depression One-E (or possibly Tropical Storm Alvin) at 11 am EDT. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and it is possible that this could become Hurricane Alvin late this week. The storm is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas.

I'll have a new post late this morning or early this afternoon on yesterday's remarkable heat wave in the Midwest. Can you believe 106° in Iowa and 108° in Nebraska, after unprecedented May snows were falling less than two weeks ago? Unbelievable!

Jeff Masters

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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151441
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
I wounder if we could see 91E in a few days
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Dakster:


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?


Here is a good answer to that question...


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS RIGHT
ON CUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
Quoting Dakster:


Hopefully it doesn't cause as much mischief as the cartoon Alvin does.


Yea, i dont like the model runs for this storm either..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting AussieStorm:


We don't have Alvin yet only have TD 01.


Oh....and where are the chipmunks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Pretty exciting we got the very first tropical depression from the first invest of Pacific season. Maybe the first tropical storm and first hurricane of Pacific season as well? We'll see. I'm pretty surprised NHC got TD-One-E going as strong as Category 1 storm.


There have been 5 May hurricanes in the eastern Pacific since 2000 (two majors), but only 3 May hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1900 (one major).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:


probs within 2 days...


Hopefully it doesn't cause as much mischief as the cartoon Alvin does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?




when the NHC is ready too name then then you will no in tell then its TD1E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
The storm improved so much in the last 6 hours...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Dakster:


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?


probs within 2 days...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Tazmanian:



we don't have Alvin its TD 1E


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow,what a May 15,first TC in EPAC and first Tropical Wave introduced in Atlantic.See post #55.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FIRST TROPICAL WAVE of 2013 introduced at 12z Surface Analysis in MDR.

Is a low latitude and low amplitude one.




Link


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty exciting we got the very first tropical depression from the first invest of Pacific season. Maybe the first tropical storm and first hurricane of Pacific season as well? We'll see. I'm pretty surprised NHC got TD-One-E going as strong as Category 1 storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yay!







More than 50% chance that this TD will become at least a cat 1 hurricane in the near future.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
01E/INV/XX



I like your triple play format....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.A.
01E/TD/XX/XX

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
My numbers for the EPAC season are 18/10/5.


I'll note that change. I started a list awhile back and you said 17/9/4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hi guys....so whats up with alvin?



we don't have Alvin its TD 1E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
FIRST TROPICAL WAVE of 2013 introduced at 12z Surface Analysis in MDR.

Is a low latitude and low amplitude one.




Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
The national hurricane center has number the tropical depression in the eastern pacific TD-1-E.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Oh Gosh, they are going to be on the bad side. I hope they evacuate them all in time, But, to where?


Yes, the bad side unfortunately; I've realized it too with this map. Most of the refugees resist evacuation because they distrust the authorities (I've sent a link somewhere in the last blog). Otherwise preparations seem to go on with big effort:

CNN Video report: Bangladesh, Myanmar prepare for arrival of Cyclone Mahasen

Edit: And here a new BBC report.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting JeffMasters:


It's been five in row.

Jeff Masters
SNAP!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Alvin called to be Hurricane!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2157
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS RIGHT
ON CUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.A.
01E/INV/XX

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
Quoting Tazmanian:



I think your late some one else posted that in the other blog


See, I knew you could do it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hi guys....so whats up with alvin?


We don't have Alvin yet only have TD 01.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks,Doc!!...Like i said couple days ago,Alvin appears to be in time for may 15...BTW GFS is the only enthusiastic with him.
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2157
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hi guys....so whats up with alvin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:

Ah, here is a map which shows exactily where those refugee camps, being threatened by Mahasen, are located (yellow dots).
Source BBC with enlarged pics


Oh Gosh, they are going to be on the bad side. I hope they evacuate them all in time, But, to where?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



I think your late some one else posted that in the other blog

I didn't know that. I had no idea it had been re-numbered. So thanks CybrTeddy for posting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Ah, here is a map which shows exactily where those refugee camps, being threatened by Mahasen, are located (yellow dots).
Source BBC with enlarged pics
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If anyone has enough time. The final assessment report for Hurricane Sandy has been released by NOAA/NWS. 66 pages(pdf) >>>> Here <<<<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was renumbered about two and a half hours ago.


Wow, I'm not in my best form today.

Guess it's only Atlantic systems that get 20 reposts for a number.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23891
Quoting AussieStorm:

Or we could ignore you and make it a better place. Either way we win. LOL



I see we don't have Alvin just yet.

TXPZ21 KNES 151224
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 15/1145Z

C. 8.1N

D. 103.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON 0906Z TRMM IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN 37 GHZ DATA WITH A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
JUST EAST OF THE ESTIMATED POSITION
. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE
LAST 2 HOURS. 4/10 BROKEN BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5 BUT THE BANDING
FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY








Yeah I dont see it yet either.. but is coming close


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6878
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No real surprise.
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren

It was renumbered about two and a half hours ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I beat TW13 to a renumber. Today is going to be a good day.



I think your late some one else posted that in the other blog
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting Tazmanian:




was that needed ????




like I been saying some of you act like little 3 year olds ingnoring the ones that act like 3 year olds on here make this blog a march better place

Or we could ignore you and make it a better place. Either way we win. LOL Just kidding Taz. Luv ya bud



I see we don't have Alvin just yet.

TXPZ21 KNES 151224
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 15/1145Z

C. 8.1N

D. 103.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON 0906Z TRMM IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN 37 GHZ DATA WITH A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
JUST EAST OF THE ESTIMATED POSITION
. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE
LAST 2 HOURS. 4/10 BROKEN BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5 BUT THE BANDING
FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I beat TW13 to a renumber. Today is going to be a good day.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23891
No real surprise.
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23891
Looking good

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2013 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
01E.ONE

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean
01B.MAHASEN

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
I think it will get named too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A good time for everyone to be reminded:

This README describes the sub-directory structure and file layout / format
for ATCF realtime database files. These files contain forecast guidance,
along with position and intensity estimates of Tropical and Subtropical
Cyclones. The data are provided "as-is" in a realtime automated fashion;
consequently, the users of the data are REQUIRED to perform quality control
of the data prior to use since there is a potential for errors within the
files.

Users are also cautioned that the data in these files are subject to
frequent revisions and can differ from information issued in official NHC
products.



Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11072


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My numbers for the EPAC season are 18/10/5.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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