Mahasen not Strengthening; Eastern Pacific's First Tropical Depression Forming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Mahasen in the Bay of Bengal continues to show little change as it steams north-northeastward at 14 mph towards the Bangladesh coast just north of the border with Myanmar. Though the storm is no longer expected to reach hurricane strength, Mahasen's storm surge and heavy rains represent a significant threat to people living in low-lying areas along the Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts. At least 70,000 people have been asked to evacuate, and a boat carrying refugees capsized on Monday, killing eight and leaving 50 missing. The ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths on the Bangladeshi coast, and Mahasen is expected to bring a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet (1 - 1.5 meters) to the Bangladesh coast on Thursday, according to the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Delhi, India. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is warning of a 5 - 7 foot (2 meter) storm surge for their coastal districts. The greatest storm surge will occur to the right of where the center crosses the coast, in northern Myanmar. The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology is warning of a 6 - 10 foot (2 - 3 meter) storm surge there. Accompanying the surge will be torrential rains of 3 - 7 inches that have the potential to cause dangerous flooding. At least seven people have been killed in Sri Lanka due to landslides triggered by Mahasen's heavy rains.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 07:45 UTC Wednesday May 15, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. The storm appears disorganized due to wind shear keeping the heavy thunderstorms to the west of the center. Image credit: NASA.

The 10 am EDT Wednesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds near 50 mph. Satellite loops show that Mahasen continues to struggle with wind shear. The low-level circulation center has become exposed to view several times, with an intense area of thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops just to the west of the center. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. Wind shear remains a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but Mahasen is now over cooler waters with a much reduced total heat content, and it appears unlikely that the storm will change much in intensity before landfall. Landfall is expected to occur near 18 UTC on Thursday.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 12 UTC May 14, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 7" are expected along a wide swath of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.


Figure 3. Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal. The shallow waters of the Continental Shelf (mostly shallower than 200 meters) are shaded whitish-grey. From Kolkata, India to Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, the ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths. Fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar, bringing catastrophic storm surges. Image credit: geomapapp.org.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Invest 90E.

First tropical depression of the year forming in the Eastern Pacific
The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15 (today!), and Mother Nature is playing along with this idea. The first "Invest" of the year, Invest 90E, has become well-organized on satellite loops, and NHC has set in motion the process to name this system Tropical Depression One-E (or possibly Tropical Storm Alvin) at 11 am EDT. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and it is possible that this could become Hurricane Alvin late this week. The storm is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas.

I'll have a new post late this morning or early this afternoon on yesterday's remarkable heat wave in the Midwest. Can you believe 106° in Iowa and 108° in Nebraska, after unprecedented May snows were falling less than two weeks ago? Unbelievable!

Jeff Masters

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TD1 looks more like a TS now. First image of the loop compared to last image really shows the strengthening it is having right now.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Although GFS had dropped it I still strongly believe we will get our first Atlantic storm in the Caribbean between the last week of this month and the first week of June


TCFP still shows possible formation there :]
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316

TD1



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Although GFS had dropped it I still strongly believe we will get our first Atlantic storm in the Caribbean between the last week of this month and the first week of June
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bye, Jamala!

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Gearsts:
When does the ECMWF forecast come out?


The May MSLP is out and show near normal pressure in the MDR and Caribbean and that is different from the April one that had higher pressures.



Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC001-011-013-027-065-081-083-093-099-131-141-15 1930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0085.130515T1637Z-130515T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-HATILLO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CAMUY PR-
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...HATILLO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...UTUAD O ...SAN
SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...LAS MARIAS AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1233 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SECTIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
AND TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS...RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RIVER
RISES. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6703 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1837 6690 1839 6690 1840 6689 1840 6661
1816 6669 1818 6701 1840 6710

$$

JJA

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC029-031-119-127-139-152030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0084.130515T1632Z-130515T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 1230 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 430 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6607 1838 6576 1829 6586 1833 6607

$$

CASTRO


Lol fail... Look at this.. No radar.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Torito:


The storm is actually absorbing the monsoon trough, strengthing it further :P

Yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC001-011-013-027-065-081-083-093-099-131-141-15 1930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0085.130515T1637Z-130515T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-HATILLO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CAMUY PR-
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...HATILLO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...UTUADO ...SAN
SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...LAS MARIAS AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1233 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SECTIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
AND TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS...RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RIVER
RISES. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6703 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1837 6690 1839 6690 1840 6689 1840 6661
1816 6669 1818 6701 1840 6710

$$

JJA

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC029-031-119-127-139-152030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0084.130515T1632Z-130515T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 1230 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 430 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6607 1838 6576 1829 6586 1833 6607

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yeah,a very wet pattern for the Caribbean for next week. TV met Ada Monzon just mentioned it.
When does the ECMWF forecast come out?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
Weather channel on the TD...

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have invest get stronger with it being in the monsoon trough we this proves them wrong




late
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting Gearsts:


Yeah,a very wet pattern for the Caribbean for next week. TV met Ada Monzon just mentioned it.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755


See, monsoon almost completely absorbed.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,they were analizing it as a surface trough but dropped it and now is the first wave.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have an invest get stronger with it being in a monsoon trough, this proves them wrong


The storm is actually absorbing the monsoon trough, strengthing it further :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have invest get stronger with it being in the monsoon trough we this proves them wrong
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Torito:


isnt this the same wave that we were talking about 2 days ago?...


Yes,they were analizing it as a surface trough but dropped it and now is the first wave.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting Torito:


I dont like the models continuing to move towards the united states..





The sea temps are far too cool for any full impact on Baja or the US. If luck would have it and any moisture carries on after it dissipates, it just might head for places that can use the rain, there's a chance anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TCFP is not working again, site being updated or something.... -_-

Edit: NVM new link now...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Torito:


isnt this the same wave that we were talking about 2 days ago?...
I haven't been around the last couple of days so i don't know.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
Quoting Gearsts:
Dude we are talking about the first wave!


isnt this the same wave that we were talking about 2 days ago?...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
101. Gearsts
4:20 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Torito:


The wave looks like any other wave, nothing suspicious yet..
Dude we are talking about the first wave!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
100. Tazmanian
4:20 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look like a ts yet.



its not up too you too make that if the nhc thinks it has made it too a TS then it is a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
99. Gearsts
4:19 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Torito:



They dont have to look picture perfect to become named storms, just meet enough requirements to do so... Storms can miss 1-2 requirements and still become TS+ as long as all the other requirements are met.
I know that's why i said it.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
98. Gearsts
4:18 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Did you see my post #55? We have the first wave officially!!
Yep very cool that we got a td and the wave in the same day NHC trolling us.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
97. Torito
4:15 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Did you see my post #55? We have the first wave officially!!


The wave looks like any other wave, nothing suspicious yet..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
96. Torito
4:14 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look like a ts yet.



They dont have to look picture perfect to become named storms, just meet enough requirements to do so... Storms can miss 1-2 requirements and still become TS+ as long as all the other requirements are met.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
95. Tropicsweatherpr
4:10 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look like a ts yet.


Did you see my post #55? We have the first wave officially!!
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
94. Gearsts
4:08 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Torito:
TD-1E now has wind speeds of 37mph.... Getting close to TS status, might see NHC change it to TS Alvin when they issue new information at 2:00 EST.
It doesn't look like a ts yet.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
93. Torito
4:02 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
Well guys, I'm going to hit the hay. Maybe I'll wake up to Alvin, and maybe not. I have the people of Eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, I know there will be deaths, I just hope it says low.



UN OCHA Flash Update 4, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

A red Storm Alert remains in effect for Tropical Cyclone Mahasen which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The cyclone does appear to have weakened and it is has been downgraded to a category-1 cyclone. It is expected to reach land now early on Friday morning (17 May). In its current path the cyclone is expected to hit north of Chittagong, Bangladesh but could, depending on its final trajectory, bring life threatening conditions for 8.2 million people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The highest impact, tidal surge and rainfall predictions are for the Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar areas of Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, where the Government raised the signal level to 4 (of 6) yesterday, a preparedness meeting were held in Dhaka, as well as all of the 14 District Committees. The Government has allocated resources towards food (100 MT of rice) and cash payments (100,000 BDT) at the field level per district.

District Committees have been advised to treat all public buildings as cyclone shelters, including some private building such as hotels. Private owners will be compensated if necessary. Around 40 water treatment plants are ready to be mobilised to the potential affected areas. The Armed Forces, under the Prime Minister’s Office have established a coordination and information cell in preparation, and the Air Force is on call ready for food distribution drops. Of particular concern are the hard-to-reach areas, especially island communities. The Director General of the Department of Disaster Management briefed humanitarian agencies and told them refugees from Myanmar around Cox’s Bazaar are located on higher ground, and therefore less at risk of being affected. He confirmed that assistance would be provided equally without discrimination.

Humanitarian agencies in Bangladesh updated the Government on their preparedness plans. While the Government hasn’t requested assistance from the international community, clusters have been working with the Government to ensure complementary efforts. All clusters are reviewing and/or revising their contingency plans with input from all cluster members, updating stocks and pre-positioning supplies in at-risk locations such as Chittagong.

In Myanmar, relocation and evacuation efforts according to the Government's plan are underway. As part of stage-1, the plan is to move 38,000 IDPs yesterday and today (14 May). It is unclear how many people have been relocated. Teams from humanitarian agencies have been monitoring the relocation efforts. Some IDPs are reluctant to relocate and some communities have refused to use military vehicles or to shelter in military barracks. Discussions between Government and communities in Sittwe are ongoing to negotiate alternative sites. The Government agrees that relocations are to be done in consultation with the IDPs. Muslim leaders have issued a statement encouraging people to cooperate with authorities.

Humanitarian agencies are keen to understand what the triggers are for starting stage-2 of the evacuation plan which involves moving 100,000 IDPs. In Sittwe, the University will be used for stage-2 relocations.

Last night, seven boats with IDPs from the Pauktaw camp Nget Chaung, were moving to other camps in advance of the storm. One of the boats hit some rocks and capsized. It is understood that 100 IDPs were on the boats and 58 remain missing. This has now been confirmed by the Government. The Government will provide boats for the relocation of other IDPs in Pauktaw. The UN is calling for search and rescue capabilities to be assessed.

In Maungdaw, in northern Rakhine State, relocations are proceeding more slowly than in other locations. A total of 64 villages are to be relocated. Evacuations began on 13 May and the Government estimates that the majority will be moved by 15 May. The Planning Minister has told humanitarian agencies that the Government will not allow anyone to die in the cyclone, and that assistance must be provided equally to all affected people. Personal belongings are not being moved with the IDPs. The Government is informing villagers through multiple channels such as loudspeakers, the use of yellow flags, and leaflets. The Government has invited agencies to visit the relocation sites to assess their suitability and to help inform communities of the process. The shelter cluster coordinator has also arrived in Maungdaw to support operations.

In Kyaukhpyu, relocation has not yet started, however the site has been identified.

Humanitarian agencies responding as clusters in the areas of health, protection, shelter, food security, education and, water and sanitation have all made available staff that can deploy for response and assessments. Stock has been prepositioned such as medical supplies, tents and food. The Ministry of Health and the heath cluster have deployed 10 mobile teams to Sittwe and activated its emergency plan.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.


cya aussie!
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
92. AussieStorm
4:01 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Well guys, I'm going to hit the hay. Maybe I'll wake up to Alvin, and maybe not. I have the people of Eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, I know there will be deaths, I just hope it says low.



UN OCHA Flash Update 4, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

A red Storm Alert remains in effect for Tropical Cyclone Mahasen which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The cyclone does appear to have weakened and it is has been downgraded to a category-1 cyclone. It is expected to reach land now early on Friday morning (17 May). In its current path the cyclone is expected to hit north of Chittagong, Bangladesh but could, depending on its final trajectory, bring life threatening conditions for 8.2 million people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The highest impact, tidal surge and rainfall predictions are for the Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar areas of Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, where the Government raised the signal level to 4 (of 6) yesterday, a preparedness meeting were held in Dhaka, as well as all of the 14 District Committees. The Government has allocated resources towards food (100 MT of rice) and cash payments (100,000 BDT) at the field level per district.

District Committees have been advised to treat all public buildings as cyclone shelters, including some private building such as hotels. Private owners will be compensated if necessary. Around 40 water treatment plants are ready to be mobilised to the potential affected areas. The Armed Forces, under the Prime Minister’s Office have established a coordination and information cell in preparation, and the Air Force is on call ready for food distribution drops. Of particular concern are the hard-to-reach areas, especially island communities. The Director General of the Department of Disaster Management briefed humanitarian agencies and told them refugees from Myanmar around Cox’s Bazaar are located on higher ground, and therefore less at risk of being affected. He confirmed that assistance would be provided equally without discrimination.

Humanitarian agencies in Bangladesh updated the Government on their preparedness plans. While the Government hasn’t requested assistance from the international community, clusters have been working with the Government to ensure complementary efforts. All clusters are reviewing and/or revising their contingency plans with input from all cluster members, updating stocks and pre-positioning supplies in at-risk locations such as Chittagong.

In Myanmar, relocation and evacuation efforts according to the Government's plan are underway. As part of stage-1, the plan is to move 38,000 IDPs yesterday and today (14 May). It is unclear how many people have been relocated. Teams from humanitarian agencies have been monitoring the relocation efforts. Some IDPs are reluctant to relocate and some communities have refused to use military vehicles or to shelter in military barracks. Discussions between Government and communities in Sittwe are ongoing to negotiate alternative sites. The Government agrees that relocations are to be done in consultation with the IDPs. Muslim leaders have issued a statement encouraging people to cooperate with authorities.

Humanitarian agencies are keen to understand what the triggers are for starting stage-2 of the evacuation plan which involves moving 100,000 IDPs. In Sittwe, the University will be used for stage-2 relocations.

Last night, seven boats with IDPs from the Pauktaw camp Nget Chaung, were moving to other camps in advance of the storm. One of the boats hit some rocks and capsized. It is understood that 100 IDPs were on the boats and 58 remain missing. This has now been confirmed by the Government. The Government will provide boats for the relocation of other IDPs in Pauktaw. The UN is calling for search and rescue capabilities to be assessed.

In Maungdaw, in northern Rakhine State, relocations are proceeding more slowly than in other locations. A total of 64 villages are to be relocated. Evacuations began on 13 May and the Government estimates that the majority will be moved by 15 May. The Planning Minister has told humanitarian agencies that the Government will not allow anyone to die in the cyclone, and that assistance must be provided equally to all affected people. Personal belongings are not being moved with the IDPs. The Government is informing villagers through multiple channels such as loudspeakers, the use of yellow flags, and leaflets. The Government has invited agencies to visit the relocation sites to assess their suitability and to help inform communities of the process. The shelter cluster coordinator has also arrived in Maungdaw to support operations.

In Kyaukhpyu, relocation has not yet started, however the site has been identified.

Humanitarian agencies responding as clusters in the areas of health, protection, shelter, food security, education and, water and sanitation have all made available staff that can deploy for response and assessments. Stock has been prepositioned such as medical supplies, tents and food. The Ministry of Health and the heath cluster have deployed 10 mobile teams to Sittwe and activated its emergency plan.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
91. Torito
4:00 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
TD-1E now has wind speeds of 37mph.... Getting close to TS status, might see NHC change it to TS Alvin when they issue new information at 2:00 EST.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
90. cyclonekid
3:55 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Hurricane Season is here! :)

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
89. AtHomeInTX
3:55 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Don't know if this has been posted yet

Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction


A little known fact is that the source of most weather forecasts delivered on your TV news and smartphones are two supercomputers housed in Reston, Va. and Orlando, Fl. An infusion of funding into the National Weather Service from Hurricane Sandy relief legislation promises to facilitate massive upgrades to these machines that may dramatically improve local, national, and global weather forecasts.

“This is a breakthrough moment for the National Weather Service and the entire U.S. weather enterprise in terms of positioning itself with the computing capacity and more sophisticated models we’ve all been waiting for,” said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service.

Last year, criticism began to emerge concerning the inferior accuracy of the NWS’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model – run on earlier versions of the supercomputers – compared to the model run at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) based in the United Kingdom. The GFS and ECMWF models are, by far, the most heavily relied on by meteorologists around the world for forecasting.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
88. Torito
3:53 PM GMT on May 15, 2013


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
87. CybrTeddy
3:49 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Our first tropical wave (of many).
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
86. Torito
3:43 PM GMT on May 15, 2013


NOGAPS actually is with the other models instead of being way off like usual...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
85. Torito
3:42 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
84. Torito
3:41 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Hamweather's exclusive track map.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
83. Torito
3:36 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
This storm is the first to be in this place at this time. (in recorded history, anyways...)

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
82. Luisport
3:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
This proton event is piking up quikly!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
81. Torito
3:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013


I dont like the models continuing to move towards the united states..



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
80. Torito
3:30 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Nasty weather may be trying to form here...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
79. barbamz
3:30 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

Mahasen. I think the eye is in the southern part of the black-grey mass.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6484
78. Tazmanian
3:29 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Quoting Dakster:
Welcome Alvin - Now be a good boy and stay off shore.




we do not have Alvin
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
77. Dakster
3:27 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Welcome TD1E, soon to be Alvin - Now be a good boy and stay off shore.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10628
76. Torito
3:25 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151441
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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