Bay of Bengal Tropical Storm Mahasen remains a dangerous threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on May 13, 2013

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It's always a nervous time when a tropical cyclone with the potential to intensify marches through the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal. That's because fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent of these horrifying storms was 2008's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar. The Bay of Bengal's notorious history is why hurricane forecasters are watching Tropical Cyclone Mahasen a little nervously today. Even though there has been little change to the 55 mph tropical storm over the past two days, the storm remains a potential threat to undergo rapid intensification into a dangerous major hurricane. The 11 am EDT Monday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds at 55 mph, with a motion northwest at 11 mph towards India. Satellite loops show that Mahasen has a large area of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops that reach high into the atmosphere. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. This lack of organization is also apparent on radar out of Chennai. However, the cyclone has developed a respectable upper-level outflow channel to the northwest. Wind shear has decreased to a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is continuing to decrease. Ocean waters that are an exceptionally warm 31°C (88°F), about 1°C warmer than average for this time of year. The warm ocean waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is over 90 J/kg/cm^2, which is favorable for rapid intensification.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 07:55 UTC Monday May 13, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 00 UTC May 13, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") are expected along a wide swath just to the right of where the storm makes landfall. Bangladesh's two largest cities, Dhaka and Chittagong, are shown. If Mahasen's track occurs farther to the left, as suggested by some models, these two cities will receive Mahasen's heaviest rains. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

Forecast for Mahasen
The official forecast brings Mahasen to Category 1 strength before landfall occurs in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Thursday near 18 UTC. However, the model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models continue to show wide disagreement on the future intensity, speed, and landfall location of the storm. It is possible that wind shear will keep the storm disorganized and below hurricane strength until landfall, as suggested by the ECMWF model. However, other model guidance, such as the 00 UTC May 13 forecast from the HWRF model, bring Mahasen to Category 2 strength by Tuesday. Mahasen is currently approaching a trough of low pressure to its northwest that is expected to recurve the storm to the northeast into Bangladesh. As the recurvature process progresses today through Tuesday, wind shear should relax to a low to moderate 5 - 15 knots, and a strong upper-level outflow channel will intensify to the storm's north, aiding intensification. There is a lot of hot, dry air to the storm's northwest over India, and if this dry air gets wrapped into Mahasen's circulation, it could put the brakes on rapid intensification, though. Considering all these factors, I give a 30% chance that Mahasen will undergo rapid intensification to a Category 3 or stronger storm by Wednesday. The storm should experience higher wind shear and less oceanic heat content in the waters beneath it in the 12 hours before landfall, which should cause some weakening. But even a weakening Category 1 storm has the potential to bring a devastating storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh, and torrential rainfall will be a major flooding threat regardless of the storm's final intensity at landfall. The 00Z May 13 run of the HWRF model predicts that the Mahasen will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a particular concern for the thousands of Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps, as reported by the New York Times.

MJO pulse that spawned Mahasen headed towards the Atlantic
Mahasen spun up in response to an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been moving through the Indian Ocean during the past week. The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The strong MJO pulse coincided with a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (CCKW), a wave of increased heat and moisture propagating along the Equator, which helped increase thunderstorm activity. The active pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach the Western Caribbean (in a somewhat weakened state) May 21 - 25, and there will be a heightened chance of an early-season tropical storm forming in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean during that time period.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning

Jeff Masters

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GGEM as well as the Euro is bringing a flood threat to FL come next week as deep tropical moisture moves across the Bahamas and into FL.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2373
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAY 2013 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 14:42:42 N Lon : 85:59:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 996.8mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.1 3.4

Center Temp : -49.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 63km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


enjoy it as the 90's are only 2 days away.


So true. Will be back in the 90's this week end with slight chance for rain. No rain in my forcast til Sunday
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Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. Chilly morning in Fort Myers. Temp 63° Humidity nice and low :)



enjoy it as the 90's are only 2 days away.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2373
Much of the Great Plains and the Midwest will today see their warmest temperatures of the year so far, doubtless a welcome experience for many. Meanwhile, the blob of cold on the East coast this morning will be gone by tomorrow, with most areas that are chilly this morning expected to see temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer tomorrow morning.

temps

WU Weather Historian Chris Burt has posted a great new blog entry on this week's oddball US weather (Topsy-Turvy Temperature Regime for U.S. this May). He notes a number of things, such as the fact that Aberdeen, SD, warmed from 22F on Sunday morning to 92 yesterday.

Strange stuff, indeed...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Good morning folks. Chilly morning in Fort Myers. Temp 63° Humidity nice and low :)

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Quoting robintampabay:



It was 46 at my house in Spring Hill.


Must be some really low lying areas then north of Tampa because temps are around 60 all over Orlando. It's a little crisp here though with the lower humidity.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2373
Euro is showing a surge of deep tropical moisture crossing FL early next week bringing in very heavy rains all across the FL Penisula.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2373
The CMC continues to indicate the development of a second tropical storm in the eastern Pacific by a week out.

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gotta do so errands, be back later..stay warm folks...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BECOME LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY AID THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... CHANCES FOR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. $$ MROCZKA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone

Largo: I'd just like to offer my congratulations on the new grand babe! Saw the posts but you had left before I got my word in!

Aislinn: I accused you of leaving "visions of food and things dancing in my head" every morning! (all good though :)

Tropics: Thanks for the update! Have a camping weekend coming up for the 23rd over on Water Island. Hope that rain you are talking about for next week clears out that weekend!

Lindy
good morning and thank you lindy..baby is doing great
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
60 here north of Orlando. Really not that cool outside compared to what some others are saying around FL.



It was 46 at my house in Spring Hill.
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Mahasen - not quite a beauty of a cyclone (luckily).
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60 here north of Orlando. Really not that cool outside compared to what some others are saying around FL.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2373
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all. I would like to share a link
European Severe Weather Database





Nice one (bookmarked). Thank you, Aussi.
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Quoting islander101010:
majors making landfall in e cen fl? cant find one in recorded history. can you? only problem recorded history isnt not that long ago


Hurricane Andrew

Diddnt make direct landfall there, but it was intense...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie and VIV have a wonderful Wednesday.

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And here in western New England, I came very close to losing all my peaches, pears and cherries last night, with trees in bloom and a freeze warning.

Meanwhile it's 46 and raining in W. Greenland:

Link

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Right now it is 56 in Regina, Canada

55 in Chicago

70 in Phoenix

49 in Portland, me

And 48 just north of Tampa, FLORIDA

Lol.
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Only supposed to get to 58 degress here today.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316


white is winter weather...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316



Carroll County, MD




Frost warning


Statement as of 2:04 AM EDT on May 14, 2013



... Frost warning remains in effect until 8 am EDT this morning...

* temperatures... middle 30s early Tuesday morning.

* Impacts... potential moderate damage to unprotected cold-sensitive
vegetation.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost warning means that frost is visible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Kinda shocking here today.... 77.4 degrees max yesterday and this morning it was 41.2 degrees.....
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Frost warning in MD.....

Quoting Bigblue55:
Thanks for the frost warning IN DELAWARE
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
wondering if I dare tell them it's already 80.5 and not 7:00 a.m. yet.... ;)

-L
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Thanks for the frost warning IN DELAWARE
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62 in Bismarck ND
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


53.2 on da Bayou Grande.
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majors making landfall in e cen fl? cant find one in recorded history. can you? only problem recorded history begins not that long ago
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Good morning everyone. Good evening Aussie. Its 33 degrees outside here...COLD! Thankfully this cold blast won't last long!
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Good morning. It looks to be an active weekend for severe weather across some parts of the country, the SPC has a threat area outlined for both Saturday and Sunday.



...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE ADVANCE OF
A WRN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES DAY 5 /SAT. 5-18/. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
OCCUR A BIT FARTHER N ON DAY 5 THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST -- I.E. FROM
NRN KS NWD INTO SD. CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION MAY BE
HINDERED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH SUPERCELLS SHOULD
INITIATE INVOF A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DAY
6 /SUN. 5-19/...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE -- FROM
IA SSWWD ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS AND INTO THE NWRN OK VICINITY. STORMS
-- POSSIBLY ONGOING IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS BEGIN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 AND
BEYOND....AND THUS WILL RESTRICT AREAL OUTLINE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO DAYS 5-6 ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/14/2013
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Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone

Largo: I'd just like to offer my congratulations on the new grand babe! Saw the posts but you had left before I got my word in!

Aislinn: I accused you of leaving "visions of food and things dancing in my head" every morning! (all good though :)

Tropics: Thanks for the update! Have a camping weekend coming up for the 23rd over on Water Island. Hope that rain you are talking about for next week clears out that weekend!

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 57 degrees this clear morning with a high later of about 84.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgium waffles with fresh fruit or maple syrup, thick slices of honey ham, bran or blueberry muffins, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Right now it is 56 in Regina, Canada

55 in Chicago

70 in Phoenix

49 in Portland, me

And 48 just north of Tampa, FLORIDA

Lol.


53.2 on da Bayou Grande.
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Good morning. A trough will increase the showers starting today for PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST DRAWS CLOSER.
TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED AND EAST OF THE AREA THU.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC WILL
PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ON WED...TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT TIME OF PEAK
HEATING AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF AXIS
ACROSS PR. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE WITH MODELS
SHOWING CALM WINDS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO STRONG
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND
FVRBL RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS.

TROF AXIS PULLS OUT WED NIGHT WITH ECMWF INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A DROP IN H85 THETAE AND PW VALUES. THE
DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT. ON SUN...MODELS SHOW RISING PW
VALUES AS ANOTHER TROF OVR THE BAHAMAS PROMOTES MOISTURE AND
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW...GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PORTRAYING A VERY WET SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST
UNTIL THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL BTWN 14/17-22Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS UP TO 2 KFT FOR THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 40 0 20 20
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 40
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Right now it is 56 in Regina, Canada

55 in Chicago

70 in Phoenix

49 in Portland, me

And 48 just north of Tampa, FLORIDA

Lol.
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Evening all. I would like to share a link
European Severe Weather Database



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581. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
11:30 AM IST May 14 2013
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved northward during the past 6 hours of the speed of 5 knots now lays near 14.0N 85.5E, about 350 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman IS, 480 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam, India, 700 km south southwest of Paradip, India, and 1140 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

It would move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong during the evening/night of May 16th.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5, CI 2.5. The system has the shear pattern for the past three hours. The convective clouds is sheared to the west of low level circulation center by about 0.9. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 17.5N west of 86.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N and is providing poleward out flow. The anticyclonic circulation lies over east central Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 5-10 knots in the northeast sector and 10-20 knots in other sectors. Upper level divergence has decreased during past 6 hours. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no change during past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 30C and ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over Storm area and decreases gradually towards northern Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 4 with amplitude equal to 2. It is favorable for intensification and northward movement of the system.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northward movement during next few hrs and then recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast and landfall over Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong between 12:00-18:00 PM UTC of May 16th. However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. GFS continues to maintain initial intensity as a depression until landfall. ECMWF model maintains cyclonic storm intensity for next 24 hours and weakens gradually thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity of cyclonic storm till landfall. UKMO and JMA suggest gradual increase in intensity until landfall.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks!..the Coffee is perked for when you get here..nice and cool here this morning and you can feel the lower humidity which is great...

Coffee. Yeah, coffee is good. A couple of gallons should get me started.

A very cool 52F here in SW Volusia County this morning.
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From the tropical weather discussion:

LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE EARLY SEASON MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N96W HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HELP
OF SHEAR VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS...BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN A BAROTROPICALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING BY WED. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-PROPAGATING DISTURBANCE...
IN THIS CASE A CARIBBEAN WAVE THAT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN SOME
CASES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
<>img src="Eastern Pacific hurricane season">
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i know we have an invest but we are 21 hours away from the eastern pacific hurricane season start up!
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another X3.2 flare during the night...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Good Morning folks!..the Coffee is perked for when you get here..nice and cool here this morning and you can feel the lower humidity which is great...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Good Morning Folks! 7-day for Tampa Bay area...........
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Global SST anomaly update:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Invest 90E:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting allancalderini:
One is needed near Nicaragua.

yep and one for Honduras
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11234
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11234
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the caribbean and their radars
One is needed near Nicaragua.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.