Bay of Bengal Tropical Storm Mahasen remains a dangerous threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on May 13, 2013

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It's always a nervous time when a tropical cyclone with the potential to intensify marches through the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal. That's because fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent of these horrifying storms was 2008's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar. The Bay of Bengal's notorious history is why hurricane forecasters are watching Tropical Cyclone Mahasen a little nervously today. Even though there has been little change to the 55 mph tropical storm over the past two days, the storm remains a potential threat to undergo rapid intensification into a dangerous major hurricane. The 11 am EDT Monday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds at 55 mph, with a motion northwest at 11 mph towards India. Satellite loops show that Mahasen has a large area of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops that reach high into the atmosphere. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. This lack of organization is also apparent on radar out of Chennai. However, the cyclone has developed a respectable upper-level outflow channel to the northwest. Wind shear has decreased to a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is continuing to decrease. Ocean waters that are an exceptionally warm 31°C (88°F), about 1°C warmer than average for this time of year. The warm ocean waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is over 90 J/kg/cm^2, which is favorable for rapid intensification.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 07:55 UTC Monday May 13, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 00 UTC May 13, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") are expected along a wide swath just to the right of where the storm makes landfall. Bangladesh's two largest cities, Dhaka and Chittagong, are shown. If Mahasen's track occurs farther to the left, as suggested by some models, these two cities will receive Mahasen's heaviest rains. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

Forecast for Mahasen
The official forecast brings Mahasen to Category 1 strength before landfall occurs in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Thursday near 18 UTC. However, the model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models continue to show wide disagreement on the future intensity, speed, and landfall location of the storm. It is possible that wind shear will keep the storm disorganized and below hurricane strength until landfall, as suggested by the ECMWF model. However, other model guidance, such as the 00 UTC May 13 forecast from the HWRF model, bring Mahasen to Category 2 strength by Tuesday. Mahasen is currently approaching a trough of low pressure to its northwest that is expected to recurve the storm to the northeast into Bangladesh. As the recurvature process progresses today through Tuesday, wind shear should relax to a low to moderate 5 - 15 knots, and a strong upper-level outflow channel will intensify to the storm's north, aiding intensification. There is a lot of hot, dry air to the storm's northwest over India, and if this dry air gets wrapped into Mahasen's circulation, it could put the brakes on rapid intensification, though. Considering all these factors, I give a 30% chance that Mahasen will undergo rapid intensification to a Category 3 or stronger storm by Wednesday. The storm should experience higher wind shear and less oceanic heat content in the waters beneath it in the 12 hours before landfall, which should cause some weakening. But even a weakening Category 1 storm has the potential to bring a devastating storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh, and torrential rainfall will be a major flooding threat regardless of the storm's final intensity at landfall. The 00Z May 13 run of the HWRF model predicts that the Mahasen will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a particular concern for the thousands of Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps, as reported by the New York Times.

MJO pulse that spawned Mahasen headed towards the Atlantic
Mahasen spun up in response to an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been moving through the Indian Ocean during the past week. The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The strong MJO pulse coincided with a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (CCKW), a wave of increased heat and moisture propagating along the Equator, which helped increase thunderstorm activity. The active pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach the Western Caribbean (in a somewhat weakened state) May 21 - 25, and there will be a heightened chance of an early-season tropical storm forming in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean during that time period.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry sould have saide Baja California peninsula

It's ok Taz. Yeah the Baja gets TC's too, but it is still at a less frequency then areas farther south.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
California has had 1 or 2 direct tropical cyclone impacts in recorded history. You need perfect conditions for a storm to make it that far north. Mexico on the other does get lots of activity. California is just too far north so SST's are almost always too cold and there is usually too high of shear so TC's very rarely impact CA landfall-wise.


And that's a good thing. One less thing to Deal with.

Airport is down, 102 East of the airport, 98.0 1 mile East up the hill here and 95.8 here. Ouch...... Humidity around 12%
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This site has it all:
www.spaghettimodels.com

Quoting wxchaser97:

Wunderground
Tropical Tidbits
SSD Floater Page
Navy TC page
You can find other resources as well.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Taz. I saw this one first. :)




you seen nothing 1st
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I am admittedly not as enthusiastic about the East Pacific season but I still think the development of storms is fascinating and the basin does produce an awful lot of beautiful strong hurricanes even if most go nowhere. It is my back up when the Atlantic is quiet and my appetizer before the Atlantic hurricane season.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
California has had 1 or 2 direct tropical cyclone impacts in recorded history. You need perfect conditions for a storm to make it that far north. Mexico on the other does get lots of activity. California is just too far north so SST's are almost always too cold and there is usually too high of shear so TC's very rarely impact CA landfall-wise.



sorry sould have saide Baja California peninsula
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The US is a little whiplash-like today, with many locations in the Midwest seeing record or near-record low temperatures over the weekend, and record or near-record high temperatures today. For instance, Valentine, Nebraska, dropped to 38 on Saturday morning, and is at 93 and climbing now.

Thaty's bound to change again, however, as the CPC's 6-10 day forecast calls for cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and from the upper Great Plains to Florida, while it's expected to be warmer to much-warmer than normal in the desert Southwest and, especially, the Northeast:

cpc

You know it's spring when the forecast map looks like a Peter Max painting... ;-)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and guys here is a sample this is just to show how the new Cayman Radar looks will look once the new website is created new website maybe up by the end of the month

That will be a great help in spotting rotations in devoloping storms Congrats to the caymens
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Quoting Grothar:


What month are we in, by the way?

I wish the middle of June, as school would be over and the ATL hurricane season would be officially underway. Sadly, it's the middle of May.
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Quoting Grothar:


What month are we in, by the way?

Last time I checked, May.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



MX/CA can get vary strong hhurricanes some time and some of them can be vary deadely and there are a lot of mts in MX and hurricane and mts do not mixs
California has had 1 or 2 direct tropical cyclone impacts in recorded history. You need perfect conditions for a storm to make it that far north. Mexico on the other does get lots of activity. California is just too far north so SST's are almost always too cold and there is usually too high of shear so TC's very rarely impact CA landfall-wise.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



MX/CA can get vary strong hhurricanes some time and some of them can be vary deadely and there are a lot of mts in MX and hurricane and mts do not mixs


Hey, Taz. I saw this one first. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27465
The latest OSCAT of 90E from a few hours ago:



This thing has a long way to go in terms of organization, but this thing has no problem firing off convection (not to mention, the dry air has subsided slightly since yesterday).

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Quoting stormchaser19:


Woowww Gro....Seeing this graph i feel like it was yesterday the end of the 2012 season!!!


What month are we in, by the way?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27465
Talk about a Mass Ejection...
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

No. Me neither. I have no interest in it.



MX/CA can get vary strong hhurricanes some time and some of them can be vary deadely and there are a lot of mts in MX and hurricane and mts do not mixs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Woowww Gro....Seeing this graph i feel like it was yesterday the end of the 2012 season!!!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This must be a beast of a sunspot rotating in...

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and guys here is a sample this is just to show how the new Cayman Radar looks will look once the new website is created new website maybe up by the end of the month

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Eh don't care for the pacific but have fun anyways.




you sould care there mx and CA and some time MX can get some bad hurricanes in the E PAC
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Eh don't care for the pacific but have fun anyways.
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This isn't a place that you would expect to be getting much severe weather this time of year.

Mesoscale Discussion #635
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

PRC021-051-061-127-135-137-132130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0077.130513T1831Z-130513T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
231 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 231 PM AST...TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY INTENSITY IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS...ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6624 1838 6603 1832 6604 1838 6627

$$

CASTRO

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

PRC003-081-099-131-132115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0076.130513T1820Z-130513T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADA PR-
220 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 219 PM AST...TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY INTENSITY IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS...ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6711 1833 6682 1824 6685 1835 6715

$$

CASTRO

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
139 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

PRC013-073-141-132030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0075.130513T1739Z-130513T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-
139 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA...UTUADO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 137 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. IN
ADDITION...U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSOR INDICATED ONE TO TWO INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 430 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6663 1835 6658 1832 6661 1832 6658
1828 6656 1826 6656 1824 6657 1825 6672
1842 6673

$$

CASTRO

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
108 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

PRC017-039-054-091-101-107-132000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0074.130513T1708Z-130513T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
108 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...CIALES...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS AND OROCOVIS

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 105 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 400
PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6659 1844 6650 1824 6636 1819 6645

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15284
Quoting cg2916:
For the hurricane season, is there a go-to place for online tracking resources (like models, satellite, etc.)?

Wunderground
Tropical Tidbits
SSD Floater Page
Navy TC page
You can find other resources as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
241. VR46L
Quoting cg2916:
For the hurricane season, is there a go-to place for online tracking resources (like models, satellite, etc.)?


Navy site


Tropical Pacific

Tropical atlantic

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Quoting cg2916:
For the hurricane season, is there a go-to place for online tracking resources (like models, satellite, etc.)?


National Hurricane Center
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For the hurricane season, is there a go-to place for online tracking resources (like models, satellite, etc.)?
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Invest 90E... your two days early! But thank you for giving us something to talk about
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct. However, I believe it has a higher chance than that Atlantic disturbance we had a few days ago ever did.


Of course. It actually has a little model support and it's nearly time for the EPac season.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27465
Does anyone has the link to the text of the Tropical models? I lost that one.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15284
So, I see that we have 90E. I wonder if the NHC will wait until May 15th to start TWOs or if we'll get an early one. How well is this thing supposed to do?

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whelp the 2013 Hurricane Season is off and running in the Epac as predicted on this blog last week!
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232. VR46L
Quoting Torito:
Link

here is the fancy satellites and data from Noaa.


Thank you

Looks nice in RGB

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The designation of 90E doesn't change the fact that it still has a ways to go. It has to depart from the ITCZ/monsoon trough first and then be able to sustain convection on its own. The models still believe it will be a few days before anything of significance can develop from this.


Correct. However, I believe it has a higher chance than that Atlantic disturbance we had a few days ago ever did.
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:D
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27465
Link

here is the fancy satellites and data from Noaa.
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wind shear


850mb vorticity
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Lol, I love the SHIPS model on invests, it is so awful with them, it take 90E to 80kts in less than 5 days.

V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 40 48 57 67 73 76 80 80

Lol, silly SHIPS. If only disturbances could detach from the ITCZ, consolidate and sustain convection, get a good surface low going, and intensify into a hurricane in just a matter of a few days.
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The designation of 90E doesn't change the fact that it still has a ways to go. It has to depart from the ITCZ/monsoon trough first and then be able to sustain convection on its own. The models still believe it will be a few days before anything of significance can develop from this.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Torito:
Maybe jeff masters will make a new blog about 90E...


This will put the squash on the GW topics.
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well no freeze around Tampa Bay in this 7-day...........
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Lol, I love the SHIPS model on invests, it is so awful with them, it take 90E to 80kts in less than 5 days.

V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 40 48 57 67 73 76 80 80
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...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY NEW JERSEY...ORANGE AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING..

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED BY
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
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not bad


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Maybe jeff masters will make a new blog about 90E...
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From Miami NWS Disco

SO THEN IS EVERYONE READY FOR THE ARCTIC BLAST? JUST A LITTLE MID
MAY SOUTH FLORIDA HUMOR. IT IS RATHER RARE TO GET A COLD FRONT THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY LOWER A FEW
DEGREES, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS WITH DEW
POINTS LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. JUST A NICE BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEFORE
THE "REAL" RAINY SEASON STARTS.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY...THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MARYLAND. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
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Np It happens to all of us!:)
Quoting Torito:
Sorry guys.... :/
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