Dangerous Cyclone Mahasen gathering strength in the Bay of Bengal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on May 11, 2013

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Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Mahasen is gathering strength over the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, and is a potential major threat to Bangladesh and Myanmar. The 11 am EDT Saturday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds at 55 mph, with a motion northwest at 19 mph into the center of the Bay of Bengal. Satellite loops show that Mahasen has a large area of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops that reach high into the atmosphere. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. However, the cyclone has developed respectable upper-level outflow channels to the north and east, which are ventilating the storm by carrying away air converging to the center near the surface. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is affecting the storm, which is keeping the system disorganized. However, wind shear has declined about 5 knots since Friday, and is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Sunday. This should allow organization into a Category 1 storm on Sunday. Aiding this process will be Mahasen's motion away from the Equator, which will help the cyclone leverage the Earth's spin to get itself spinning faster. Also aiding the intensification process will be ocean waters that are an exceptionally warm 31°C (88°F). This is about 1°C warmer than average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen gathering strength over the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal.

Forecast for Mahasen
The official forecast brings Mahasen to Category 1 strength before landfall occurs in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Wednesday. Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models show wide disagreement on the future intensity and speed of the storm, though. It is possible that wind shear will keep the storm disorganized and below hurricane strength until landfall, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models. The 06 UTC forecast from the HWRF model brings Mahasen to Category 3 strength on Monday, but weakens the storm to tropical storm strength at landfall. The model predicts that the storm will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 32 cm (12.6") over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a huge concern for the thousands of Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps, as reported by the New York Times.


Figure 2. Double trouble: Tropical Cyclone Jamala (lower) and Tropical Cyclone Mahasen (upper storm) spin on opposite sides of the Equator in this in this MODIS image taken at 04:25 UTC May 10, 2013. Mahasen is the name of a King of Sri Lanka from the 3rd century. Image credit: NASA.

MJO pulse that spawned Mahasen headed towards the Atlantic
Mahasen spun up in response to an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been moving through the Indian Ocean during the past week. The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The strong MJO pulse coincided with a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (CCKW), a wave of increased heat and moisture propagating along the Equator, which helped increase thunderstorm activity. The active pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach the Western Caribbean sometime May 22 - 26, and there will be a heightened chance of an early-season tropical storm forming in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean during that time period.

There is a small disturbance a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico today that has developed some spin and a bit of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is over cool waters of 77 - 79°F, and will likely be torn apart by high wind shear on Sunday.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning

Tutorial on Equatorial Waves in the COMET program's Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, plus their case exercise built around the May 2002 "twin twins" case, for use in a tropical synoptic course.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Dakster:


It ONLY takes ONE to wreck your day.


Or year..
Good Morning Dak..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6935
Quoting barbamz:


Source

Not a ghost strom: Mahasen track forecast.
And a good morning over there ...



And a Good Morning/Afternoon to you as well barb.. :)
Mahasen looking healthy this am..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6935


Source


Not a ghost strom: Mahasen track forecast.
And a good morning over there ...

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Can we give it a break on posting what the models are saying 380+hrs out. 240hrs is 10 days, and we know how bad the models are that far out. times that by 1000 and your close to how bad they are. Wait til they show maybe 240hrs then we have to start watching but posting + 240hrs and it's dreaming.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yeah TS can be problematic sometimes I'm sure everyone remembers TS Fay back in 08 we know what it did to Fl



With a tropical storm here in FL, the potential for flooding is usually the biggest threat. Tropical storm force winds bring down trees and cause some damage, but nothing Florida can't easily handle. I wouldn't mind having a system like TS Barry from 2007.
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Seems the 06z is more agressive than the 00z. The last couple days though each run has shown a low forming and heading in the general N/NE direction. The bare minimum I think we see a low heading the Florida around Memorial Day or just after bringing some big rains... water may have a chance to warm up by then and help develop further. If the 06z is right Key West could have a Storm on Memorial Day.

RCThunder
www.hurricanechat.com

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Quoting yonzabam:


Since 1900, there have only been two cat 1 and one cat 3 Atlantic hurricanes in May.

But the weather is starting to get a bit crazy, so you never know.


It ONLY takes ONE to wreck your day.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11658
Quoting Dakster:


99% chance you are correct... Doesn't mean I really want to deal with a TS either.

Yeah TS can be problematic sometimes I'm sure everyone remembers TS Fay back in 08 we know what it did to Fl

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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Being May, it will almost certainly be a tropical storm at most. Nothing to be that concerned about.


Since 1900, there have only been two cat 1 and one cat 3 Atlantic hurricanes in May.

But the weather is starting to get a bit crazy, so you never know.
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The system the GFS is forecasting must be marginal, and the lower performance of the 00Z cycle in the tropics may be hinting at that, thus dropping it for that cycle.


A Comparison of Forecast Skills among GFS Four Cycles in the Past Ten Years






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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Being May, it will almost certainly be a tropical storm at most. Nothing to be that concerned about.


99% chance you are correct... Doesn't mean I really want to deal with a TS either.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11658
Quoting Dakster:
I am starting to NOT like the model consistency, although at 2 weeks out the best thing is to see a Hurricane going over your doorstep, since that is usually the last place it ends up. Granted, I won't be painting the house anytime soon.



BTW, they are sold out of shower curtains... He must have beat us all to the punch.


Being May, it will almost certainly be a tropical storm at most. Nothing to be that concerned about.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
According to GFS exactly one week form today we will have an invest forming in the SW Caribbean and what will eventually become our first storm of 2013 season

If that happens I will go to the creek next to my place and eat mud. It's a ghost "system".

Btw, you can hold me to that.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Btw does anyone have a link to CMC model that goes out 240 hours out
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Isn't it always a waiting game?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11658
Quoting TheChart:
The inconsistency among the various runs of the same model, GFS in this case, is something that alerts me to the likely possibility that the system that develops in some of the runs is an over-amplification of a area of disturbed weather that may be in-place during that time period.

The GFS is having difficulty resolving the atmospheric reaction to the upward MJO pulse, coupled with the climatalogical "heat low" present in the area of the SW Caribbean. I think this is a case where we will see normal prohibitive dynamics of the atmosphere mitigate any TC development.



Ok I guess we have to sit and wait see what GFS does and see what really happen

But one thing I know GFS is coming out of la la land and in to real word so yes let's watch
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According to GFS exactly one week form today we will have an invest forming in the SW Caribbean and what will eventually become our first storm of 2013 season
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I am starting to NOT like the model consistency, although at 2 weeks out the best thing is to see a Hurricane going over your doorstep, since that is usually the last place it ends up. Granted, I won't be painting the house anytime soon.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hear they're having a sale on shower curtains early this year..


BTW, they are sold out of shower curtains... He must have beat us all to the punch.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11658
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. It's kind of weird how the last two 0z GFS runs have been very non-enthusiastic on development while all of the other runs have been showing development and generally moving up the time frame. Maybe just a coincidence. Development on the 6z started at about 10 days, though there was low pressure/moisture there before that:


Further analysis show the Invest/disturbance forms 162H which is the 19th becomes TS 249H 22nd becomes a strong TS boarder H at 384H which is on the 28th
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Good morning. It's kind of weird how the last two 0z GFS runs have been very non-enthusiastic on development while all of the other runs have been showing development and generally moving up the time frame. Maybe just a coincidence. Development on the 6z started at about 10 days, though there was low pressure/moisture there before that:

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Quoting Civicane49:
The 6z GFS run is similar to the 18z GFS run. They both show a weak tropical depression/storm forming in the western Caribbean and moving northward to strike western part of Cuba and Florida. Still too far out but it gives a general notion of wet activity across much of the western Atlantic with the MJO expected to reach there on late May. Early development is possible.

With that I'm out. Good night.


Good night but before you go I just got to look further into it and well it quite different that 18Z if anything it maybe closer to
Yesterday's earlier runs its developing quicker and if you look at it closer its actually a moderate-strong TS
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks Gulf Bound Civicane and yep wunderkid I would keep an eye on it, looks like an early start to the season.

Yeah look at 336H that's just about right on top of cayman
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The 6z GFS run is similar to the 18z GFS run. They both show a weak tropical depression/storm forming in the western Caribbean and moving northward to strike western part of Cuba and Florida. Still too far out but it gives a general notion of wet activity across much of the western Atlantic with the MJO expected to reach there on late May. Early development is possible.

With that I'm out. Good night.
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If GFS continues like it did in 06Z run once it passes the 144H mark we need you keep both eyes out and by the look of it we should reach that mark by 18Z this evening or the 00Z runs late tonight
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Looks Gulf Bound Civicane and yep wunderkid I would keep an eye on it, looks like an early start to the season.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning all and Happy Mothers Day to all the mom's and soon to be mom's out there. Yep I just checked to confirm and from the looks of out we could be tracking something down there as early as in a week. Now if we can get some support from the other models and consistency I guess it's game on.


Well GFS has consistency and CMC and the EURO has jumped on the bandwagon either by lowering pressure in the area or increased precip

Quoting Civicane49:
6z GFS at 336 hours:



Crap it on my house hardware store this week yep
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6z GFS at 384 hours:

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6z GFS at 336 hours:

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
06Z GFS now at 171H invest disturbance forms around 162H 19 may by the looks of it so far GFS is back on track
Good morning all and Happy Mothers Day to all the mom's and soon to be mom's out there. Yep I just checked to confirm and from the looks of out we could be tracking something down there as early as in a week. Now if we can get some support from the other models and consistency I guess it's game on.
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Good morning and happy mothers day. Good weather will prevail today with only isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT
23N AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BUT THE LOWER LEVEL LOW BELOW 700 MB
NORTH OF PR HAS DECOUPLED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN 00Z GFS SHOWS. IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON MON/TUE. SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
NORTHWARD OF 19N WHILE THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING INTO PR/USVI
ABOVE 850 MB. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SINCE WE ARE UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

TRADE WINDS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A COUPLE MORE DAYS THEN HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT BACK FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE
TRADES DEEPEN A BIT BY TUE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT DO NOT SEE VERY MANY OF THEM OCCURING
ANYTIME THIS WEEK AS THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL NOT YET RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VCTS/VCSH ARE STILL POSSIBLE AFT 12/16Z
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL
ONLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 4 FT OR UNDER FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR FLOODING TO BE A PROBLEM
TODAY. SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND IT STARTED SAT IN DRYING
OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 78 / 40 20 20 20
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06Z GFS now at 171H invest disturbance forms around 162H 19 may by the looks of it so far GFS is back on track
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06Z GFS now at 144H
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06Z GFS is now running now at 21H
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Good Morning Folks and HAPPY MOTHER"S DAY LADIES!!........
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487. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
11:30 AM IST May 12 2013
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over southeast Bay of Bengal moved slightly westward at 7 knots and now lays near 10.0N 87.0E, about about 650 km west northwest of Car Nicobar, 650 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, 800 km southeast of Chennai, India, and 1440 km south southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

It would move initially northwestwards during next 36 hours and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

According to satellite imagery, the cloud system is disorganized. However, deep convection persists (T2.0, CI 2.5). Intense to very intense convection seen over southern Bay of Bengal, adjoining Indian Ocean between 4.5N to 13.5N and 81.0E to 90.0E, and adjoining Sri Lanka. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Latest ocean SAT-2 winds suggest wind speed of 30-35 knots around the center of the system. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 15.0N and is providing poleward outflow in association with anticyclonic circulation over southern Andaman sea. Upper level divergence is favorable for maintaining the intensity. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no change during the past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is around 30-32C. Ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over the storm area. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind continues to be around 5-10 knots in the northeastern sector. However, the wind shear is moderate to high around the center of the system. The MJO now lies in the border of phase 3 with amplitude greater than 2. It is favorable for intensification and northward movement of the system. Dynamical parameters show intensification of the system after recurvature.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest initial northwestward movement during the next 36 hours and then recurving northeastward towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast. However, there is a large divergence in the numerical weather prediction models guidance with respect to intensification of the system. ECMWF and HWRF maintain intensity until recurvature and weakening thereafter. UKMO maintains intensity until landfall. JMA and GFS indicate weakening of the system. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest slight weakening during the next 48 hours then intensification further for subsequent 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.5N 85.6E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 12.4N 85.2E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.7N 86.2E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 17.5N 87.7E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
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486. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
8:30 AM IST May 12 2013
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm Mahasen over southeast Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwestwards and lays center near 10.0N 87.5E, about 600 km west southwest of Car Nicobar, 700 km northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, 850 km southeast of Chennai, India, and 1450 km south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

It would move initially northwestwards during next 36 hours and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast. Latest satellite imagery shows disorganisation of cloud mass and weakening of the system

According to satellite imagery, the cloud system is disorganized. However, deep convection persists. (T2.0, CI 2.5) Intense to very intense convection seen over southern Bay of Bengal, adjoining Indian Ocean between 4.5N to 13.5N and 81.0E to 90.0E, and adjoining Sri Lanka. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.
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484. vis0
Besides any of the "007" (Bond) nemesis, controlling weather it is nearly impossible, but
influencing weather i state can be done.

Now before i explain the statement as to "influencing weather", please remember
one reason why people seem gullible might be 'cause education in this country is not
 looked at as important as, oh lets say being on TV/iPod. Yet another reason is 'cause
history teaches one (by example) that 80% of discoveries are by accident or by
amateurs. Does that mean we should scrap professionals, of course not. To me
what feeds science new ideas are the armatures & accidents that give professionals
new things to tinker & tweak eventually try to perfect. Another way of stating that is,
thinkers (amateurs) invent, memorize-rs (professionals) perfect. Amateurs don't rely
simply on past discoveries or  books they use ideas they thought of from within or from
without, some might say they pulled it out of their as(...as matter of fact) to professionals
it might seem that way.   Professionals build on thinkers ideas, are those that get high
IQ scores, reference tons of books (books by the way   that include information that
was considered crazy when first spoken) yet those then crazy ideas now fills our pricey
college or official reference books.
example: Wright Bros. or Alberto Angel or Ader (latter two were man from Southern
Europe ~10 yrs before the Wright Bros. ) Mr. Angel died testing his flying devices. Both
created what we now know as planes, yet in their times what books did
they read to teach themselves the How,What,When.Why,Where of building a flying vehicle?
It was in there imagination blended with some known facts including (sadly) learning from
others falling off mountains trying to fly using feathers and other inventions to try to "fly".
Yet imagine back then someone saying build the flying objects using heavier material than
sea ship and use the airflow above large wings instead of pushing off the air below. You'd
say THEN that those person(s) were crazy, THEN, but those THEN weird theories is what
led to first generation  planes then after (jet) engines where perfected we had jet airliners,
tons of metal flying through the sky. Tomorrows successful inventions come from today's
Crazy ideas, otherwise tomorrows failures will blossom from today's ignorance.

Well the next major discovery is in the imagination of a kid, boy or girl, healthy or starving,
having the kid's village living in peace or being bombed or in a poor or rich family, with
parents or is adopted, straight or gay, religious or non religious the important thing is TO
LISTEN TO ALL and use ones education to separate ideas that should be studied from
ideas that should be set aside. Yet today's society (i call the 1980s ...till who knows when)
the "ignorant age" 'cause if professionals don't see it in a book it must not be possible and
that's what is passed on to children, as children learn by example.
They see adults saying if it doesn't come from a professional  it must be no good.
Think 'bout it, those that became astronauts, as kids thought Martians existed & played
with funny looking space ships. Yet their imaginations blended with known science helped
give NASA top quality workers.
 
i state weather (actually nature) can be influenced** , i state i've been influencing weather
since the 1970s. Though  never more than 14 days in succession and no more than the
accumulated time of ~2-3 months per year.
 
 That was till January 2010, the ml-d is ON continuously be it in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico from
 Jan till early Feb 2010 &  May till early July 2010, had 2 ml-ds ON)  the rest of the time the
 ml-d is in Manhattan, NY zip 10016.   (unless otherwise stated on my wunderground blog the
 ml-d is ON). Also post blogs when the ml-d  settings are changed/moved. Plus if one checks
 they will notice that  i state the ml-d affects that will  occur and  do so at 99% accuracy.
 Therefore i can either see the future, as blogging at Wxu for last 3 yrs  at over 99%
 accuracy  for weather trends when forecasters in my area are ~65% on 3 day prognostications
 & below 50% on  5 day plus prognostications when the ml-d is changed. Just last week
 posted a change in the ml-d, as i forgot  change the ml-d settings months ago.  Stated what
 should occur after i change the ml-d and what the meandering LOW  of the 1st week of May
 2013  should do over 3/4s of the U.S. The meandering LOW moved as i stated the ml-d would
 influence it to move  leading to more precipitation, at first out west (Midwest) stall stay strong
 then towards the East / NYC area and if one reads how the ml-d works then one should figure
 out whats next as to the ml-d and what i call the Galacsic Calender changes.
 
 Weird that one of the respected (rightly so) wxu bloggers, Zachary Labe (Northeast Weather
 Analyst) posted on  May 6, 2013 a blog titled: Increasing chances for rain over the next seven
 days.... i posted 6 hours  earlier the ml-d change and what  should occur, don'y read NOAA
 forecast not have million  $$ compu'rs to tap info from. This has occurred at least 11 times
 since 2010 were i post the ml-d affects to happen and a day later to a month later the
 professionals notice that same trend to start. So again  either i can see the future (if i could
 see the future then why haven't i played the lottery or horses, instead of barely paying my
 rent, almost homeless twice. Due to my inability to remember things only  jobs i can do are
 those that need little memory, in my case in-studio cameraman, housekeeping/maintenance 
 w/blueprints,  Also a back injury  has me unemployed till the job freeze in NYC is removed. So
 why would i waste my time / money posting  blogs.
 
 Here one of my ideas i drew up/wrote as a kid 1970s & years! later sent to The Weather
 Channel (1990s) as a idea to see if anyone there could help me present it ti science before 1997.
   Before you read it remember the Hoover damn was thought impossible when first presented.
  
 The idea was if the ml-d can influence weather to build LARGE WIND Turbines bolted into
 earth just off shore, even off parishes off Louisiana. Why LA.?, (at age 9 a girl i liked was
 from LA. and i heard how her family feared Hurricanes, so i read up on Louisiana and found
 oil wells were being built off the LA. coast.   i presented her with this idea to take to her family
 in LA., niave?, sure, but if later the ml-d really works it was feasible.
 So in short, idea was build wind turbines using off shore oil well technology, place ml-ds on
 16 x 16 rooms over the turbines then as Tropical Storms/Hurr. came near the ml-d man made rigs
 ml-d engineers would steer these Tropical lows to stay off shore close
 enough to bring wind streams onto the Parishes turbines thus supply Louisiana, eventually the U.S.
 with energy from these storms as the more wind the more "storage batteries" down the line would
 store these energies. The storms are not "killed" / destroyed, if you try that Nature WILL WIN,
 what i do is ... oh lets call it "dance with nature"  that's good. Ml-d style is to have LOWs 
 stalled till nature comes along again with a front or dry wedge and sweeps the LOW out to sea.
 Eventually i state 1 ml-d assisted wind turbine can take the place of 70 windmills, imagine in / over
 NYC every 4 sq miles the tallest building has a ml-d, its painted in specific pattern dots so that when
 it spins the dot's & their colours (sunlight reflected) on it change its look depending on the turning speed
 of the turbines not to mention  each turbine powers a 4 sq mi area by using man made wind stream(s) no
 more than 8 (continuous) to12 hrs a day (jet streams are natures untapped REAL SOLAR POWER)
  as not heat or light powers planets, but the change in air temperature from day/night
 gives us the greatest potential energy tap, wind and as that jet stream flies overhead
 what a waste that its not brought down in a controlled manner to power up to 60% of intelligent beings
  energy waste i mean needs. But again i'm a nut lets hope someone whom is respected
  comes along and shows science how to do this, again
        & nbsp;     ==========================

 Am posting this to add my "2 cents" . If i don't post for a while its 'cause i  will be busy helping
 2 family members move LONG DISTANCES so should be away from the compu'r for a few
 weeks,  might add an  ml-d diary blog.
 
 
**(have left clues throughout the webnet, including here on wxu and the only way i'll show its for real is via my request that it be tested in Africa)

,peace
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Quoting Civicane49:
Mahasen continues to organize.

Looks like he is dying in my opinion.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Mahasen continues to organize.



Looks like there's some dry air issues, just spit out a massive outflow boundary.
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Please note yes it's very shallow and hardly recognisable
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Also if you look closely at the extreme right or east of this image you will see that now CMC now has the Caribbean system or the start of it at least

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAY 2013 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 10:38:03 N Lon : 86:27:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 994.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -74.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.2 degrees
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Mahasen continues to organize.

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CMC continues to get more aggressive with forecasting two tropical cyclones over the eastern Pacific by the end of next week.



In addition, the recent GFS run is showing a weak tropical depression over the eastern Pacific.



While we might see some potential development in the western Caribbean in late May, we might also see at least one tropical cyclone over the eastern Pacific during that time. The MJO should be in these areas by the latter part of this month.
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475. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT caught the naked swirl.

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I have a feeling that maybe 06Z maybe more eventful and may pull timing forward we will just have to wait and see but if during the day on Sunday GFS keep on pulling back timing and creating more uneventful scenes then we could call it a write off
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Wow 00Z is so uneventfull anyway that's for 00Z let see what 06Z has to offer
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gfs wnatl
20130512 00 UTC
TIME 05/28/00 UTC
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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