Survey says: 97% of climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on May 07, 2013

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Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But what would a larger sample of the scientific literature show, extended all the way up to 2011? You're invited to help find out, by participating in an anonymous 10-minute survey where you will be reading the abstracts (summaries) of ten randomly selected technical papers on Earth's climate published between 1991 and 2011. The survey was created by physicist John Cook of The Global Change Institute at Australia's University of Queensland. Mr. Cook is the creator of one of my favorite climate change websites, skepticalscience.com. He authored one of our special Earth Day 2013 essays, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change, from which I have pulled Figure 1 below. Mr. Cook is lead author on a new paper called "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," to be published in the next month or so in Environmental Research Letters. The paper analyzes the same papers included in the survey you're asked to participate in, and the researchers plan to compare the results. Each of these 11,944 papers written by 29,083 authors and published in 1,980 journals included the keywords "global warming" or "global climate change" in their listing in the ISI Web of Science database. After reading each abstract, you will be asked to rate the level of endorsement within the abstract for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming. There will be these choices available on a drop-down menu for you to choose from:

1. Explicit Endorsement with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing more than half of global warming.
2. Explicit Endorsement without Quantification: abstract explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
3. Implicit Endorsement: abstract implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
4. Neutral: abstract doesn't address or mention issue of what's causing global warming.
5. Implicit Rejection: abstract implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.
6. Explicit Rejection without Quantification: abstract explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming.
7. Explicit Rejection with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming.
8. Don't know.

When you are all done, the survey will let you know how your average score for the ten papers compares to the rating given by the authors. The survey took me about 8 minutes to complete, and it was interesting to see the tremendous diversity of research being done on global warming in my random sample. I'll post about Mr. Cook's results when his paper is published in the next few months.


Figure 1. Two recent studies have sought to measure the level of agreement in the scientific community in different ways and arrived at strikingly consistent results. A 2009 study led by Peter Doran surveyed over 3,000 Earth scientists and found that as the scientists' expertise in climate change grew, so did the level of agreement about human-caused global warming. For the most qualified experts, climate scientists actively publishing peer-reviewed research, there was 97% agreement. Alternatively, a 2010 analysis led by William Anderegg compiled a database of scientists from public declarations on climate change, both supporting and rejecting the consensus. Among scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, there was 97% agreement. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. This is articulated concisely by John Reisman who says: "Science is not a democracy. It is a dictatorship. It is evidence that does the dictating." Figure and text taken from Mr. John Cook's special Earth Day essay, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change.

Thanks for participating!

Jeff Masters

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627. azucas
9:16 PM GMT on May 11, 2013
One hundred percent of climate scientists have been taught that human Carbon dioxide is changing the climate.

As 100% of nutritionists were taught that Sodium was bad, so 97% of nutritionists will advise a low Sodium diet.

The truth remains that it has been well known for forty years that it is the Chlorine ion in table salt that is bad for you.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
626. Torito
4:11 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting louisianaboy444:


YAWN lol :)


New blog from jeff masters....xD

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
625. louisianaboy444
4:09 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:

Eventually it will be.

Regardless, I suspect 2013 will be 2013. :)


YAWN lol :)
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
624. AussieStorm
3:57 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:
24S Weakening fast (convection anyways..)




Looking ok to me.







Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
623. Torito
3:55 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


LOL Hail in MD..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
622. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:55 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
621. Torito
3:55 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


They can sink small ships though


lol........ Most ships dont go into polar lows... unless if the captain does it willingly.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
620. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:54 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
619. Torito
3:53 PM GMT on May 08, 2013


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
618. AussieStorm
3:52 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:



Calm down dude, it isnt that big of a deal.... He didn't know it was going to happen...

Don't worry, that's just Taz being the blog policeman. Hey taz, we have Moderators for that so relax dude.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
617. FunnelVortex
3:51 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:


Idk, they just look cool to me and are usually harmless.
Quoting Torito:


Idk, they just look cool to me and are usually harmless.


They can sink small ships though
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
616. Torito
3:50 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting DFWdad:


OK, I have not read the whole article, so I am not speaking on what the developer said.

But this article makes my skin crawl, like I am being sold something using misinformation.

The article says the beach problem in Granada is because of sand extraction for construction (subsidence?) and storm surges eating away at the beach. That has been happening on the U.S. Gulf Coast after every Hurricane forever.

Oh, it does say that Climate Change 'made the storm surge worse'.

Then the whole article extrapolates based on, "If climate change impact predictions come true'. Now it seems many of you 'believe' that all that is predicted is going to come true, so you are completely fine with this extrapolation. And you may call me a 'denier'. But I am really just trying to skeptically cut through the hype, and emotional appeal.

I just do not like the weak correlation that is used to paint such dire future results. I see this over and over again in news articles. I know, post links to millions of studies, but I am not talking about research, just the hype.

OK, off my soapbox and back to work, and occasional lurking.


Haha i lurk alot too..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
615. Torito
3:48 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Why, exactly?


Idk, they just look cool to me and are usually harmless.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
614. DFWdad
3:47 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting KeysieLife:
This must be the dumbest quote I have seen in a while:

"If the sea level rises a foot or two it really doesn't make any difference here in Grenada because we have beaches that have a reasonably aggressive falloff," De Savary said. "If the water gets a few degrees warmer, well, that's what people come to the Caribbean for, warm water, so that's not an issue."

So you're telling me that warmer Caribbean waters are not an issue? Really!?

Article on sea level rise.


OK, I have not read the whole article, so I am not speaking on what the developer said.

But this article makes my skin crawl, like I am being sold something using misinformation.

The article says the beach problem in Granada is because of sand extraction for construction (subsidence?) and storm surges eating away at the beach. That has been happening on the U.S. Gulf Coast after every Hurricane forever.

Oh, it does say that Climate Change 'made the storm surge worse'.

Then the whole article extrapolates based on, "If climate change impact predictions come true'. Now it seems many of you 'believe' that all that is predicted is going to come true, so you are completely fine with this extrapolation. And you may call me a 'denier'. But I am really just trying to skeptically cut through the hype, and emotional appeal.

I just do not like the weak correlation that is used to paint such dire future results. I see this over and over again in news articles. I know, post links to millions of studies, but I am not talking about research, just the hype.

OK, off my soapbox and back to work, and occasional lurking.
Member Since: November 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
613. FunnelVortex
3:46 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:
These are probably my favorite weather phenomeon...



polar lows.


Why, exactly?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
612. Torito
3:45 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
WOOOOOO

The one invest in the indian ocean has officially been classified as a cyclone :D



Now it needs to get stronger to get a name.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
611. Torito
3:43 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
These are probably my favorite weather phenomeon...



polar lows.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
610. 1900hurricane
3:41 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm aware of that, the hook to the SW is what I was referring to as a "Beryl type system," it will be interesting to see if further storms that develop that are tropical take similar paths.

Ok, was not aware that is what you were trying to get across. I'll say this though: with the thickness near the center of the low being extremely low (starting out as modeled near an incredible 540 dam), it would have to spend a huge amount of time over the Gulf Stream to reverse the thickness.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
609. Torito
3:40 PM GMT on May 08, 2013


Perhaps the Rarest hurricane location ever recorded...
BRAZIL.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
608. Torito
3:38 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
24S Weakening fast (convection anyways..)

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
607. Torito
3:36 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:



may be you sould test things on your own blog then that way if some in gos worng with the link your not going too mass up dr m blog at the same time



Calm down dude, it isnt that big of a deal.... He didn't know it was going to happen...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
606. Tazmanian
3:34 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting ncstorm:
testing..pulling out the old links for a test drive..




may be you sould test things on your own blog then that way if some in gos worng with the link your not going too mass up dr m blog at the same time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114781
605. Torito
3:33 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's still only a 1/50 chance.


Heres your .0001% storm -_-


Cyclone Catarina

More info
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
604. CaribBoy
3:31 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Convection missing again the N Leewards. The west part is for PR/VI and the east part for the S Leewards and N Windwards. Between those two areas... there is some dry air... and no need to say this boring part will be for me.

Link

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001
603. FunnelVortex
3:31 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:


Thats pretty good odds for something this early in the year.


I'm still watching it, just in case.

But I am really interested in the Carribean later this month.

The Carribean will probably be a hotspot this year.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
602. MrMixon
3:30 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Wow, kind crazy... and it came from ~2.5" of rain?
Always interesting to see how different the amounts of rainfall are across the country that cause significant flooding. That amount of rain would be an almost yearly occurrence here on the gulf coast. We had similar impacts to that with the higher-end flash flood event on May 1st, but that was from 6-7" of rainfall in 3hrs...


Good point. Of course, antecedent soil conditions also play a big role in how flashy a flash flood is. But even accounting for soil moisture variations, some geographies are more capable than others of absorbing rainfall. Here in Colorado, 2.5" of rain in a couple hours would cause enough flash flooding and erosion to turn this...



into this...



:)
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
601. Torito
3:30 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's still only a 1/50 chance.




^-^
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
600. Torito
3:28 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's still only a 1/50 chance.


Thats pretty good odds for something this early in the year.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
599. Tropicsweatherpr
3:27 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Gearsts:
Do you know if we have radar for PR today or are we completely blind?


At least we have the Toa Baja one.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
598. FunnelVortex
3:26 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:


It has went from 1% to 2% and doubled in size xD

And the answer to that would be: 2% of the time...


It's still only a 1/50 chance.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
597. Torito
3:25 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
LOL!


xD
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
596. SFLWeatherman
3:24 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
LOL!
Quoting Torito:


It has went from 1% to 2% and doubled in size xD
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4423
595. Torito
3:24 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


When has a little 2% spot ever developed?


It has went from 1% to 2% and doubled in size xD

And the answer to that would be: 2% of the time...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
594. Torito
3:23 PM GMT on May 08, 2013


World in general.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
593. SFLWeatherman
3:23 PM GMT on May 08, 2013

Quoting Gearsts:
Do you know if we have radar for PR today or are we completely blind?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4423
592. FunnelVortex
3:21 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Torito:



Area for formation of a tropical system is getting larger....


When has a little 2% spot ever developed?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
591. Gearsts
3:21 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well,it depends on the ridges if a strong Cape Verde season occurs and most of them go more west than to go fishing.Timing,timing,timing is the key.
Do you know if we have radar for PR today or are we completely blind?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1573
590. Torito
3:20 PM GMT on May 08, 2013


warmer than average water...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
589. Torito
3:19 PM GMT on May 08, 2013



Shear forcasted to trend lower...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
588. ScottLincoln
3:18 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Luisport:
New Yorkers were caught totally by surprised this morning when serious flash floods hit the city. The 2.5 inches of rain came down in just a couple of hours causing serious flooding in New York and Northern New Jersey. Here are photographs from Weather.com. Link


Wow, kind crazy... and it came from ~2.5" of rain?
Always interesting to see how different the amounts of rainfall are across the country that cause significant flooding. That amount of rain would be an almost yearly occurrence here on the gulf coast. We had similar impacts to that with the higher-end flash flood event on May 1st, but that was from 6-7" of rainfall in 3hrs...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3172
587. Torito
3:18 PM GMT on May 08, 2013



Area for formation of a tropical system is getting larger....
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
586. ChillinInTheKeys
3:16 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting bappit:
Aaaaah, put one person on ignore and the blog is half as long. Now I can read what people have to say.


That was a great idea especially when using a mobile hotspot with limited data,(That's only my 2nd iggy).

The Keys have been great this week. Cool and very dry air for May.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
585. CybrTeddy
3:16 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I certainly wouldn't call the system on the 00Z ECMWF tropical or subtropical. That is one deep cold core system.



I'm aware of that, the hook to the SW is what I was referring to as a "Beryl type system," it will be interesting to see if further storms that develop that are tropical take similar paths.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23638
584. dabirds
3:15 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Our farmers hope you get all the rain you want barefoot, as long as you keep it west of the MS! Saw Dr. Forbes gave us a 3 Torcon for tomorrow, just hope the rainfall totals StL is predicting are on the high side. Did see 4-5 days of dry after this, if on low side maybe they can get some corn planted.

75 w/ 56 dew pt, 30" still light N winds. Might be able to finish baling the yard tonight after an initial 4" cut last night. Some was higher than the 6" I stated yesterday. If get through quick enough will see if any morels remain in my timber.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
583. biff4ugo
3:11 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
People won't pay to visit armored beaches or snorkel over bleached dead coral for very long. Yes, warmer water and CO2 acidified water kills coral and reefs. That won't change the flow of tourist traffic?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1558
582. hydrus
3:11 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's the thing: Devary is probably smart enough to realize what climate change will mean to his island--just as most oil company CEOs know what their product is doing. But profit is an amazingly strong force, so you'll not catch Devary telling potential buyers, "Those millions I spent buying and developing all those acres or beachfront property? I wasted them buying what will be underwater in a matter of years!"
Yep..It is my theory that the eustatic rise will increase expotentially as time wears on. I wonder what effect it will have on the worlds economy spending hundreds of billions walling off all the vulnerable cities.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
581. stormchaser19
3:08 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
The Atlantic and the caribbean sea are warming significantly, but the trade winds are supposed to increase in the next week or so......Lets see what are the effect of this....



Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
580. Torito
3:07 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Carribbian:



Gulf:



East Atlantic
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
579. biff4ugo
3:06 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Looks like waves are pulling up from South America but there is no sign the sheer is going to slack over the Caribbean or gulf of Mexico to let anything happen.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1558
578. Torito
3:04 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Here comes the 11:00 Updated sattellite!

92B


The demoted 94S! (24S now.)




If sattelite is too blurry, use this link.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
577. Neapolitan
3:02 PM GMT on May 08, 2013
Quoting KeysieLife:


True, but he is a developer in the Caribbean. There is no way you can tell me he doesn't know that warmer waters could mean more dangerous storms.

I am no where near being a scientist, but this thing called common sense...well, we can't all win I guess.
That's the thing: Devary is probably smart enough to realize what climate change will mean to his island--just as most oil company CEOs know what their product is doing. But profit is an amazingly strong force, so you'll not catch Devary telling potential buyers, "Those millions I spent buying and developing all those acres or beachfront property? I wasted them buying what will be underwater in a matter of years!"
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.