Survey says: 97% of climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on May 07, 2013

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Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But what would a larger sample of the scientific literature show, extended all the way up to 2011? You're invited to help find out, by participating in an anonymous 10-minute survey where you will be reading the abstracts (summaries) of ten randomly selected technical papers on Earth's climate published between 1991 and 2011. The survey was created by physicist John Cook of The Global Change Institute at Australia's University of Queensland. Mr. Cook is the creator of one of my favorite climate change websites, skepticalscience.com. He authored one of our special Earth Day 2013 essays, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change, from which I have pulled Figure 1 below. Mr. Cook is lead author on a new paper called "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," to be published in the next month or so in Environmental Research Letters. The paper analyzes the same papers included in the survey you're asked to participate in, and the researchers plan to compare the results. Each of these 11,944 papers written by 29,083 authors and published in 1,980 journals included the keywords "global warming" or "global climate change" in their listing in the ISI Web of Science database. After reading each abstract, you will be asked to rate the level of endorsement within the abstract for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming. There will be these choices available on a drop-down menu for you to choose from:

1. Explicit Endorsement with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing more than half of global warming.
2. Explicit Endorsement without Quantification: abstract explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
3. Implicit Endorsement: abstract implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
4. Neutral: abstract doesn't address or mention issue of what's causing global warming.
5. Implicit Rejection: abstract implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.
6. Explicit Rejection without Quantification: abstract explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming.
7. Explicit Rejection with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming.
8. Don't know.

When you are all done, the survey will let you know how your average score for the ten papers compares to the rating given by the authors. The survey took me about 8 minutes to complete, and it was interesting to see the tremendous diversity of research being done on global warming in my random sample. I'll post about Mr. Cook's results when his paper is published in the next few months.


Figure 1. Two recent studies have sought to measure the level of agreement in the scientific community in different ways and arrived at strikingly consistent results. A 2009 study led by Peter Doran surveyed over 3,000 Earth scientists and found that as the scientists' expertise in climate change grew, so did the level of agreement about human-caused global warming. For the most qualified experts, climate scientists actively publishing peer-reviewed research, there was 97% agreement. Alternatively, a 2010 analysis led by William Anderegg compiled a database of scientists from public declarations on climate change, both supporting and rejecting the consensus. Among scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, there was 97% agreement. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. This is articulated concisely by John Reisman who says: "Science is not a democracy. It is a dictatorship. It is evidence that does the dictating." Figure and text taken from Mr. John Cook's special Earth Day essay, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change.

Thanks for participating!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BobChecks:


I'm about as far away from the Gulf as one can get and still be in the lower 48.

Intentionally.

I've spent plenty of time in Florida and on the Gulf. Got a couple of degrees from FSU. Learned enough about that part of the world to make me want to live somewhere else.

Somewhere without deadly storms, swarms of biting/stinging bugs and three kinds of deadly snakes. (Copperheads don't come that far south, do they? I had my share of copperheads when I lived a couple of states northward.)


Well, if you don't like bitie things, don't come to Australia. We have most of the top 10 here.
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Quoting BobChecks:



Well, for one thing they are telling the world what they've discovered. They're warning us about what we're doing to ourselves.

What else do you think they should be doing?

Yes they are telling us things we already know.... It's like the next study that comes out is shouting louder than the last one.

What I am asking is, Is there any scientists studying of ways to slow stop or even reverse the effects man has done to the atmosphere of our planet. Or is that just being left to the private sector to figure out, which means they will be extraordinarily expensive cause the private sector has to get the money they invested into the scientific studies and the development, back.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
And where are you I am on the Gulf Coast about 1.5 miles from the Gulf?


I'm about as far away from the Gulf as one can get and still be in the lower 48.

Intentionally.

I've spent plenty of time in Florida and on the Gulf. Got a couple of degrees from FSU. Learned enough about that part of the world to make me want to live somewhere else.

Somewhere without deadly storms, swarms of biting/stinging bugs and three kinds of deadly snakes. (Copperheads don't come that far south, do they? I had my share of copperheads when I lived a couple of states northward.)
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Quoting BobChecks:


There's plenty here about current tropical weather and when a big storm gets underway he concentrates on it.

Are you not interested in how our changing climate will change tropical weather? Not aware that tropical weather in the future will be different than tropical weather was in the past?

That's something that I really want to understand. I find the changes we're causing fascinating. Fascinating and scary.

I'm actually not that interested in whether it's currently raining in someone's back yard at the moment....
And where are you I am on the Gulf Coast about 1.5 miles from the Gulf?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Nuclear power plant shut down in Michigan not looking so routine now.


Updated: Tuesday, 07 May, 2013 at 15:59 UTC
Description
Government regulators and the operators of a nuclear power plant are trying to figure out why several gallons of radioactive water leaked into Lake Michigan over the weekend.


Incontinence is a common problem with the elderly.

We've extended the retirement age on our reactors and increased their work load. Some drips and dribbles shouldn't be a surprise.
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371. Skyepony (Mod)
Drought in India on Tuesday, 07 May, 2013 at 13:15 (01:15 PM) UTC.
Description
Salman Khan has dispatched 2500 tankers with a storage capacity of 2,000 litres to the drought hit region of Aurangabad in Maharashtra. Salman Khan has always been known to be a man with a heart of gold. This gesture comes through Salman Khan's NGO 'Being Human' which has taken a keen interest in aiding the grief stricken families of the drought hit regions in Maharashtra. The foundation will provide water tankers to the drought affected districts of Marathwada from May 6 to 31, according to an e-mail received recently by the Aurangabad Divisional Commissioner from Salman Khan's 'Being Human' Foundation. Salman's Being Human would supply 750 water tankers to Beed, 500 each to Osmanabad and Jalna, and 250 each to Aurangabad and Nanded. People of the Marathwada region have been facing acute water scarcity caused by uneven distribution of rainfall in the state.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
I do respect his knowledge but I would like to hear more on the Tropical weather and less on GW!But it is his Blog .


There's plenty here about current tropical weather and when a big storm gets underway he concentrates on it.

Are you not interested in how our changing climate will change tropical weather? Not aware that tropical weather in the future will be different than tropical weather was in the past?

That's something that I really want to understand. I find the changes we're causing fascinating. Fascinating and scary.

I'm actually not that interested in whether it's currently raining in someone's back yard at the moment....
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369. Skyepony (Mod)
Nuclear power plant shut down in Michigan not looking so routine now.


Updated: Tuesday, 07 May, 2013 at 15:59 UTC
Description
Government regulators and the operators of a nuclear power plant are trying to figure out why several gallons of radioactive water leaked into Lake Michigan over the weekend. The Palisades nuclear power plant remains shut down while they look for the source of the leak and make repairs. WSBT visited a park not far from the plant to hear from people on the beaches. At Van Buren State Park, Mark Larmee and his friends were reminded that even though they're off the grid, they're still not really that far from our built world. "It's gorgeous obviously, but you don't get away from that anywhere you go unless you go far away," said Larmee. Palisades sits about a mile down the beach and right now is idle because of the leak that resulted in a small discharge of radioactive water into Lake Michigan - 79 gallons - the equivalent of a little less than two average bathtubs. "That's not good, so I mean I get mad about ribbons and balloons, so radiation is obviously not thrilling either," Larmee added.In a statement, the operators of Palisades said: "The plant is in a safe and secure condition, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been notified. There is no impact on the health and safety of plant employees or the public." The NRC also says there is no threat to humans and that the radioactive water was quite diluted by the time it made it to the lake. Groups opposing nuclear power plants, however, say regulators and the plant's operator are downplaying the seriousness of the incident."This plant is an accident waiting to happen, and it really needs to be permanently shut down before the worst happens there," said Kevin Kamps of "Beyond Nuclear." There have been leaks at Palisades before, as recently as February. The NRC once listed the facility among the least safe nuclear power plants in the U.S. They say it's improved since then, though after this week, there's more work to be done. The NRC sent an expert to Palisades to help look for the source of the leak, which is believed to be in a water storage tank.
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368. Skyepony (Mod)
Landsat 8 Data Product Information

By the end of May 2013, data from the Landsat 8 satellite will be available to all users. Each day, 400 scenes acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) will be archived at the USGS EROS Center, and will be processed to be consistent with current standard Landsat data products. Data will be ready to download within 24 hours of reception.
New Sample Data Product Available

This LDCM scene displaying the Crater Lake area was acquired on April 23, 2013, after the satellite arrived and began functioning on WRS-2.


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356 gulfbreeze: I do not think Dr.Masters could go one day and not put GW in his blog!

Your fault. If ya'd just start up a hurricane like you're s'posta, we'd have somethin' better to talk about.
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Quoting BobChecks:


I suspect you come here because you respect Jeff's knowledge and intelligence.

Has it dawned on you that he's trying to get everyone to understand something very, very important?

I do respect his knowledge but I would like to hear more on the Tropical weather and less on GW!But it is his Blog .
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365. Skyepony (Mod)
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Tropical disturbances organizing over the Indian Ocean. 92B at the top and 94S at the bottom.

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363. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT catches the left side of 94S. Above it 92B is missed. West of India 91B has fallen apart. Navy dropped it.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
The data is from 2010 & 2011 that not very current!!97% ?


The Muller group study did not come out until late 2011.

You know the one. It was funded by the Kochs' in an attempt to disprove global warming and run by a climate change denier. But it turned out that after a couple of years of study Muller found that what the 'other 97%' had been saying was correct.

Moved him from the 3% to the 97% side and probably took some others with him.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, Allen was a bad one.


yep Allen made one hell of a mess here in Cayman
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
I do not think Dr.Masters could go one day and not put GW in his blog!


I suspect you come here because you respect Jeff's knowledge and intelligence.

Has it dawned on you that he's trying to get everyone to understand something very, very important?

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Quoting AussieStorm:
So Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But may I ask, what are these climate scientists doing to help slow down, stop or reverse global warming? or are just interested in publishing studies that show global warming is happening?



Well, for one thing they are telling the world what they've discovered. They're warning us about what we're doing to ourselves.

What else do you think they should be doing?
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So Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But may I ask, what are these climate scientists doing to help slow down, stop or reverse global warming? or are just interested in publishing studies that show global warming is happening?
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Haven't they always had issues? I seem to recall the GFS doing remarkable with medium to long range tropical cyclone genesis forecasts ever since the pre-Danielle tropical wave was over Africa in 2010, while ECMWF generally fails to form, well, anything.

Not sure about the other two.


The UKMET and JMA are more surprising than the ECMWF, which might have been somewhat expected. It's significant though because this situation in the Indian Ocean is absolutely loaded with convection. To have these models miss the development of a cyclone in that kind of situation is major.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
I do not think Dr.Masters could go one day and not put GW in his blog!
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Quoting Levi32:


This will be a massive failure for the ECMWF, UKMET, and JMA models. We now know their tropical convection schemes have issues.
Haven't they always had issues? I seem to recall the GFS doing remarkable with medium to long range tropical cyclone genesis forecasts ever since the pre-Danielle tropical wave was over Africa in 2010, while ECMWF generally fails to form, well, anything.

Not sure about the other two.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19122
Quoting allancalderini:
My name would probably be never use as Allan is very close to Allen and if they use a variation it would probably be used Alan.


Yeah, Allen was a bad one.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I was watching Forecasting The End on The Weather Channel earlier. One professor from the University of Arizona said that without the tilt of the Earth, tornadoes would be plausible in not just Spring, but every season...year round.

I wonder about people sometimes.



uh.. the Earth is tilting??? When did that happen??? Is that why I've been tripping more lately? What effect does this so-called tilting have on climate change?
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I want to think of something clever for my namesake. There's no cyclone named Corey/Kori, but my middle name is Matthew, which could appear again in 2016.
My name would probably be never use as Allan is very close to Allen and if they use a variation it would probably be used Alan.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


To get values over 100% would imply that all of the warming was anthropogenic, and that the aerosol forcing is large enough to mask a significant amount of warming.


Yep. We got a pretty good idea for that once the Clean Air Act came out and world SO2 concentrations went down.

Given that there are large uncertainties in the aerosol forcing makes that assumption questionable.


You mention the large uncertainties, but you neglect to mention their smaller impact. The AR4 has a whole chapter dedicated to this fact, and these days every GCM worth it's salt has a fully coupled aerosol model. The uncetainties (and impacts) and as large as you think they are.

Keep in mind that aerosols have a significantly shorter residence time than Carbon Dioxide does in the atmosphere, thus the effects of aerosols relatively more local than the effects of Carbon Dioxide.


Depends on the aerosol you're referring to. Even short lived aerosols can have a global impact, especially if said aerosol is constantly being replenished. To wit, acid rain wasn't just a local problem and human activities managed to keep the global levels of sulfur in the atmosphere increasing despite it forming "short-lived" compounds (until the Clean Air Act and it's brethren started cleaning things up). If you're putting in more than the system is taking out, it doesn't really matter how short lived aerosol is.



There is evidence though, that there is a significantly larger solar forcing over the 20th Century than just through TSI variations alone...*much deletia for brevity*...I think that the Sharpiro reconstruction is likely too large with it's TSI variations, but it's interesting to see very comparable values with the solar forcing to the anthropogenic forcing when accounting for the indirect variations in solar output.


That would be a convincing argument, if the premise itself wasn't based on on shaky science. For example, you make several references to papers citing cosmic rays as influencing the forcing as well, which have been pretty much completely refuted. Also, observations don't back up the hypothesis. Solar forcings have not increased over the past century. They really haven't. And several well thought out critiques of such a hypothesis are a google search away (Real Climate has a nice one). An argument could be made for the pre-satellite era if you wanted to play the "not enough reliable measurements" card, but that would really be reaching.

Not only that, but if the hypothesis were true, then it would have to do more than attempt to explain the current warming. It would also need to stand up against the paleoclimate record. Greenhouse theory correctly explains and predicts the effects of additional or lack of GHG's in the atmosphere, regardless of the time period. The "Enhanced Solar Forcing" hypothesis does not. At least not according to historical observations or mainstream science journals.

Don't get me wrong. The hypothesis was an interesting one. It would have been nice if it were correct (though we would still need to do something about warming if it wasn't going to abate anytime soon). However, after further scientific investigation by the climate science community it just didn't hold water. It's not the first hypothesis to go by the wayside and it certainly won't be the last.

I do applaud you though since you actually put in effort to approach this from a scientific angle. That's much better than the usual "IT'S A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY" denier we see on here.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Pretty much all of them. Otherwise aggregated science reviews (like the IPCC) wouldn't be able to make claims that almost all climate scientists agree human activity is the primary instigator for modern global warming (since such documents are reviewed by the scientists). And the current consensus puts our contribution between 80% to 120%.
The data is from 2010 & 2011 that not very current!!97% ?
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Quoting Levi32:


ECMWF is the best model in the world, including with Atlantic TC forecast skill. Every model has weaknesses. One of the Euro's weak spots is in picking out tropical development in the medium range, but its post-development forecasts beat the GFS almost every year. The twin Indian TCs may just be another example of its issues with medium-range TC genesis prediction.


Thanks for the answer. Let's see what the May MSLP forecast by ECMWF bring.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Quoting Neapolitan:
That 97% figure Dr. Masters cited comes from a peer-reviewed study. That means other experts looked at the research, tried vigorously to tear it apart, and utterly failed to do so. In other words, it passed muster.

On the other hand, we have your opinion. Now, before I would consider that opinion anything more than just that, I would need to see your professional credentials. And I'm afraid mere "fascination with probabilities and odds" aren't sufficient; I'll need to see records of your formal education, lists of professional associations to which you belong, and publication information for every scientific paper you've authored in the field of statistical mathematics. That's only fair, don't you think? After all, the authors of the peer-reviewed paper Dr. Masters cited weren't bashful about publishing their credentials. Same with the paper's referees. Until I see that, I'll have no choice but to keep your commentary classified as "Opinion: Non-Expert".

Bottom line: a very large percentage of scientists across many disciplines--climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dynamicists, atmospheric physicists, atmospheric chemists, solar physicists, historical climatologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, soil scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, palaeoclimatologists, palaeoenvironmental reconstructionists, ecologists, synthetic biologists, biochemists, global change biologists, biogeographers, ecophysiologists, ecological geneticists, applied mathematicians, mathematical modellers, computer scientists, numerical modellers, bayesian inferencists, mathematical statisticians, time series analysts, etc.--agree that the climate is warming and it's our fault. As a fascinated but non-expert person myself, you'll forgive me for deferring to them, and not contrarians on an internet forum...

That's only logical, ain't it?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,does this failure by ECMWF means we can't trust it down the road or better times for it will come during the season?


ECMWF is the best model in the world, including with Atlantic TC forecast skill. Every model has weaknesses. One of the Euro's weak spots is in picking out tropical development in the medium range, but its post-development forecasts beat the GFS almost every year. The twin Indian TCs may just be another example of its issues with medium-range TC genesis prediction.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
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Quoting Levi32:


This will be a massive failure for the ECMWF, UKMET, and JMA models. We now know their tropical convection schemes have issues.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah. This is a huge bust for the ECMWF and JMA. They never really developed anything until yesterday, whereas the GFS and CMC caught on over a week ago.

EDIT: Ninja'd by a few seconds. ;(

Yup, sums up my thoughts on it.

Haha, TA.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Levi,does this failure by ECMWF means we can't trust it down the road or better times for it will come during the season?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Quoting wxchaser97:

They both should develop into pretty powerful cyclones as well. The southern one is doing better right now, but, I think, the northern invest turns into a stronger cyclone on the models. Hurray for the GFS and CMC for picking these two storms out first.

Yeah. This is a huge bust for the ECMWF and JMA. They never really developed anything until yesterday, whereas the GFS and CMC caught on over a week ago.

EDIT: Ninja'd by a few seconds. ;(
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Quoting wxchaser97:

They both should develop into pretty powerful cyclones as well. The southern one is doing better right now, but, I think, the northern invest turns into a stronger cyclone on the models. Hurray for the GFS and CMC for picking these two storms out first.


This will be a massive failure for the ECMWF, UKMET, and JMA models. We now know their tropical convection schemes have issues.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I was watching Forecasting The End on The Weather Channel earlier. One professor from the University of Arizona said that without the tilt of the Earth, tornadoes would be plausible in not just Spring, but every season...year round.

I wonder about people sometimes.



People don't generally tilt.
;)
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is Larry Cosgrove's forecast for the 2013 North Atlantic season.



With respect to Larry, naming cities in a hurricane season forecast is complete rubbish.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Both invests seem to be organizing quite nicely.


They both should develop into pretty powerful cyclones as well. The southern one is doing better right now, but, I think, the northern invest turns into a stronger cyclone on the models. Hurray for the GFS and CMC for picking these two storms out first.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'll evacuate... closer to the center of the storm (work permitting, or unless they come knocking on my door, like Isaac).. :)

Also, it's amazing how much farther we've improved in track forecasting since 1992. If I'm not mistaken, there were hurricane warnings as far west as Freeport even as the models had latched onto a Louisiana landfall when Andrew crossed Florida.


I didn't know how far the warnings went. But wouldn't doubt it. Was before I started following the tropics closely. That came after Edouard came through almost a year after Humberto. By then, I was determined no more were going to sneak up on me again. Lol.
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94S has a TCFA issued:

WTXS21 PGTW 080200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7S 83.3E TO 9.9S 79.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2S
82.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 83.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE LATEST OF WHICH IS A
072334Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS. THE VWS,
HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING MORE POLEWARD INTO LOWER VWS.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION AND ANTICIPATED LOWER VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090200Z. //
NNNN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Both invests seem to be organizing quite nicely.

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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'll evacuate... closer to the center of the storm (work permitting, or unless they come knocking on my door, like Isaac).. :)

Also, it's amazing how much farther we've improved in track forecasting since 1992. If I'm not mistaken, there were hurricane warnings as far west as Freeport even as the models had latched onto a Louisiana landfall when Andrew crossed Florida.

You'll actually "evacuate" and then go chase the hurricane.
And one day, I, my physical self, may be knocking on your door... ;)

Today was another mostly sunny, low to mid 70s high temp day. I can't wait for some storms to move in Thursday. SPC has my area on the edge of the day 3 "see text(5%)" risk category.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
92B upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING HAS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF
THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
This is Larry Cosgrove's forecast for the 2013 North Atlantic season.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh wow, Kori. I remember Andrew. Was my first evacuation. I've lost count of them now, but we evacuated for Lili 10 years later. And like those 2 Gustav also went to LA and missed us. I don't mind evacuating. There were at least 2 that I was glad I wasn't here for.
I'll evacuate... closer to the center of the storm (work permitting, or unless they come knocking on my door, like Isaac).. :)

Also, it's amazing how much farther we've improved in track forecasting since 1992. If I'm not mistaken, there were hurricane warnings as far west as Freeport even as the models had latched onto a Louisiana landfall when Andrew crossed Florida.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19122
Quoting MississippiWx:


My name, Andrew, will never be used again. I totally destroyed South Florida. :-/
I noticed, on absolutely NO list is there a "Sam".
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Quoting KoritheMan:

You also scared the piss out of my mom. She's told me stories of when Andrew hit Louisiana, and how we were in the hall together, in the dark, in the middle of the night, with tornadoes whirling overhead and tin flying across the street.

I was a baby at the time, but I believe her. Shame on you.


Oh wow, Kori. I remember Andrew. Was my first evacuation. I've lost count of them now, but we evacuated for Lili 10 years later. And like those 2 Gustav also went to LA and missed us. I don't mind evacuating. There were at least 2 that I was glad I wasn't here for.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

You also scared the piss out of my mom. She's told me stories of when Andrew hit Louisiana, and how we were in the hall together, in the dark, in the middle of the night, with tornadoes whirling overhead and tin flying across the street.

I was a baby at the time, but I believe her. Shame on you.


I can be a jerk sometimes. :-)
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
My contribution to todays blog...

Im my old met class, we had this GW debate, my group lost :(
The final statement from the teacher was
"GW occurs naturally but humanity is speeding the process"

Sometimes it does occur naturally. But only during times when the climate forcings push the climate out of equilibrium in the warming direction.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


My name, Andrew, will never be used again. I totally destroyed South Florida. :-/
You also scared the piss out of my mom. She's told me stories of when Andrew hit Louisiana, and how we were in the hall together, in the dark, in the middle of the night, with tornadoes whirling overhead and tin flying across the street.

I was a baby at the time, but I believe her. Shame on you.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.