Survey says: 97% of climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on May 07, 2013

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Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But what would a larger sample of the scientific literature show, extended all the way up to 2011? You're invited to help find out, by participating in an anonymous 10-minute survey where you will be reading the abstracts (summaries) of ten randomly selected technical papers on Earth's climate published between 1991 and 2011. The survey was created by physicist John Cook of The Global Change Institute at Australia's University of Queensland. Mr. Cook is the creator of one of my favorite climate change websites, skepticalscience.com. He authored one of our special Earth Day 2013 essays, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change, from which I have pulled Figure 1 below. Mr. Cook is lead author on a new paper called "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," to be published in the next month or so in Environmental Research Letters. The paper analyzes the same papers included in the survey you're asked to participate in, and the researchers plan to compare the results. Each of these 11,944 papers written by 29,083 authors and published in 1,980 journals included the keywords "global warming" or "global climate change" in their listing in the ISI Web of Science database. After reading each abstract, you will be asked to rate the level of endorsement within the abstract for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming. There will be these choices available on a drop-down menu for you to choose from:

1. Explicit Endorsement with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing more than half of global warming.
2. Explicit Endorsement without Quantification: abstract explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
3. Implicit Endorsement: abstract implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
4. Neutral: abstract doesn't address or mention issue of what's causing global warming.
5. Implicit Rejection: abstract implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.
6. Explicit Rejection without Quantification: abstract explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming.
7. Explicit Rejection with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming.
8. Don't know.

When you are all done, the survey will let you know how your average score for the ten papers compares to the rating given by the authors. The survey took me about 8 minutes to complete, and it was interesting to see the tremendous diversity of research being done on global warming in my random sample. I'll post about Mr. Cook's results when his paper is published in the next few months.


Figure 1. Two recent studies have sought to measure the level of agreement in the scientific community in different ways and arrived at strikingly consistent results. A 2009 study led by Peter Doran surveyed over 3,000 Earth scientists and found that as the scientists' expertise in climate change grew, so did the level of agreement about human-caused global warming. For the most qualified experts, climate scientists actively publishing peer-reviewed research, there was 97% agreement. Alternatively, a 2010 analysis led by William Anderegg compiled a database of scientists from public declarations on climate change, both supporting and rejecting the consensus. Among scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, there was 97% agreement. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. This is articulated concisely by John Reisman who says: "Science is not a democracy. It is a dictatorship. It is evidence that does the dictating." Figure and text taken from Mr. John Cook's special Earth Day essay, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change.

Thanks for participating!

Jeff Masters

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MJO arrives the 20th of May.

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what I have also noticed,is the weakness in the SAL. In the past seasons, the SAL was very dense and was wide spread. This was responsible for most of the tropical disturbances not developing into tropical cyclones. Now with lack or weakness of the SAL, this should allow for conditions to be more conducive for development.
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Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday! Aussie and VD46L have a great Thursday!
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More rain coming to FL this weekend.

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GFS precip accum. Notice how the monsoon trough is moving toward FL.

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Tropics are about to get real active.


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Area for potential storm formation is getting interesting to me...Link
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Quoting Torito:
TODAY'S STORM HUNT:

94S



THE WEAKENING 92B (NOT ALL MAKE IT):


Actually, 92B's 850mb vorticity values look the same or better than last night. It is just dealing with some shear. Both invests are going to develop.
GFS at 24hrs:


GFS at 96hrs:


CMC at 24hrs:


CMC at 96hrs:
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Surface winds of 94S... Appears that hurricane hunters may have flew through it.
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Quoting stoormfury:
morning

looking at the presnt conditions in the MDR and the long range forecast. by most of the reliable models, that conditions will get even better for ,this hurricane season. By the looks of things I expect that the numbers will increase ,for the June Forecast.

.


Im sticking with 17-7-3...
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Area above south america has been consistantly showing a possible formation of an invest in the carribian.
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morning

looking at the presnt conditions in the MDR and the long range forecast. by most of the reliable models, that conditions will get even better for ,this hurricane season. By the looks of things I expect that the numbers will increase ,for the June Forecast.

.
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TODAY'S STORM HUNT:

94S



THE WEAKENING 92B (NOT ALL MAKE IT):

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413. VR46L
The low/ storm now in the mid Atlantic

vap_images/goes Nexsat

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412. VR46L
Good Morning Folks

Beginning to wonder if these two Invest in the Indian ocean will make it …

The Big Picture in Water Vapour (all images from RAMMB)

Click on image to see loop (loop is kinda cool as clockwise and anti clock wise are evident)




North Indian ocean Invest in Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery


Click on image to see large version



South Indian ocean Invest in Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery

Click on image to see large version


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Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks..the heat returns this week.............


ughhh...

These past few days have been the nicest I EVER remember in May. Well, looking on the bright side, our rainy season will never kick in if it doesn't heat up.
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Good morning. 30% hatched area for hail from the SPC over parts of OK this afternoon/evening. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out either.

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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A nice 57 degrees this morning with a high later of about 83.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: English muffins, variety of jellies, sausage, fresh fruit, yogurt and orange juice. Enjoy.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for PR and adjacent islands will dominate the weather today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TOMORROW AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND H85
THETAE VALUES DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO COMBINE ONCE AGAIN WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. THESE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL INTERIOR
AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LINGERING
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING XCP IN SCT SHRA EAST PR TO
USVI. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BY AFT WITH TJSJ THE MOST LIKELY
TAF LOCATION TO HAVE MVFR OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR...MTN OBSC LIKELY
TOO. LLVL WIND E 10-20 KT BLO FL100 THEN WSW INCR SPD ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE INCREASING SLOWLY DUE TO NORTHEAST SWELLS. AT
THIS TIME...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET WITH A MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 50 50 50 30
STT 89 77 89 77 / 40 50 50 20
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Good Morning folks..the heat returns this week.............
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Heavy rain and and dangerous winds pummel WA

Western Australia has been lashed by heavy rain and damaging winds
overnight, with more wild weather on the way.

Many places saw their heaviest rain in almost a decade as a line of
rain and storms crossed the state's west overnight. Significant rain
was widespread, extending from the South West Land division north to
southern parts of the Pilbara.

Acton Park and Busselton in the southwest of the state both saw their
heaviest rain since 2005, recording 86mm and 57mm respectively to 9am
this morning. Aston Downs, also in the South West, picked up the
heaviest official figure. Their 101mm was the heaviest rain in at
least nine years. Learmonth in the southern Pilbara collected 34mm,
its heaviest May fall in eight years.

In Perth there were widespread 25-50mm totals, with even heavier falls
close to the coast. Perth city, Swanbourne and Jandakot all saw their
heaviest rain since 2011, as well as their heaviest May totals in
eight years.

Winds were also damaging as the band moved through, gusting as strong
as 96km/h at Rottnest Island west of Perth.

A deep low pressure system and associated trough have been the cause
of the wild weather.

While conditions eased periodically this morning, winds and showers
are picking up again as the low approaches the southwestern coast this
afternoon. At 12:30pm winds had gusted as strong as 100km/h at Garden
Island west of Perth, while Perth Airport saw winds reach 70km/h at
midday. As the low nears the coast tonight, destructive winds up to
125km/h are possible, peaking during the early hours of Thursday
morning.

Winds are likely to ease later on Thursday morning, however a cold
front will approach later in the day. This will bring further showers
and an increase in winds, although winds should not exceed 80km/h away
from the exposed coasts.

There is likely to be a further 25-50mm of rain for southwestern parts
of the state, heaviest near the coast. By the time the systems clear,
many places are likely to be sitting above their May average, not even
halfway through the month.

Looking further ahead, showers should begin to ease from Friday as a
high pressure system approaches the state's south. Most places can look forward to a generally dry weekend, with only the odd shower or two remaining about the southwest coasts.


© Weatherzone 2013








Loop
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Wellll, good morning everyone!

Good evening Aussie!

I am off to walk the beach and hope we find some sea turtles nesting!

too soon to see this;

http://youtu.be/HkbqM3oVEGQ

but we might see this;

http://youtu.be/iwInXKCRHlQ
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403. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
11:30 AM IST May 8 2013
---------------------------------

A vortex has formed over Bay Of Bengal and adjoining Indian ocean centered near 5.0N 85.5E

Dvorak Intensity: T 1.0

Associated intense to very intense convection over area between equator to 8.5N and 83.0E to 93.5E.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
BOMM: Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System





BAHAHA...That's me up and down on here sometimes lol
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371 Skyepony: Drought in India -- [Salman Khan's NGO 'Being Human'] has dispatched 2500 tankers with a...capacity of 2,000 litres [ie carrying 2tonnes each for a total of 5,000,000 litres per fleet run] to the drought hit region of Aurangabad in Marathwada...from May 6 to 31...
...750 water tankers to Beed, 500 each to Osmanabad and Jalna...250 each to Aurangabad and Nanded


Aurangabad Division
Population (as of 2001) in the districts to be served by Being Human water tankers
Aurangabad -- 2,897,013
Beed -- 2,161,250
Jalna -- 1,612,357
Nanded -- 2,876,259
Osmanabad -- 1,660,311
Total population -- 11,207,190
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CO2 pollution supersizing blue crabs while slowing/stunting the growth of oysters in ChesapeakeBay.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
BOMM: Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System




Lol. I feel just like that on this blog so much I should make that my new portrait. :)
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BOMM: Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System


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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Not sure about the MJO. Good question though.

Maritime Continent is this:


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Quoting allancalderini:
I have hear Audrey`s reputation she was a bad one poor Texas.Btw what part of Earth does phase 4 and 5 affect the mjo I know 2 and 3 the indian ocean 6 and 7 the pacific and 1 and 8 the Atlantic but 4 and 5 I don`t know which region affect.


Phases 4 and 5 are in the region of Southeast Asia.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


What I am getting at is all we hear is doom and gloom, but never anything about the thrives science is making to reverse our effects.


To hear more about the solutions and potential solutions you might want to check this site from time to time...

CleanTechnia

It focuses on solutions. It assumes that people understand the problem.

There are a bunch of topics on the right side of the page to get you up to speed on wind, solar, EVs and other solutions. And a number of new articles each day on new stuff.

There are some other very good sites as well. I check this one that comes out of Australia every day. Giles writes some top notch stuff.

Renewable Economy

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Quoting allancalderini:
I have hear Audrey`s reputation she was a bad one poor Texas.Btw what part of Earth does phase 4 and 5 affect the mjo I know 2 and 3 the indian ocean 6 and 7 the pacific and 1 and 8 the Atlantic but 4 and 5 I don`t know which region affect.


Not sure about the MJO. Good question though.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Had to look that one up. It did look bad. As far as A storms Audrey takes the crown around here. 48 years later Rita took a nearly identical path. Evan every 50 years is too often for that. :/

I have hear Audrey`s reputation she was a bad one poor Texas.Btw what part of Earth does phase 4 and 5 affect the mjo I know 2 and 3 the indian ocean 6 and 7 the pacific and 1 and 8 the Atlantic but 4 and 5 I don`t know which region affect.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


What I am getting at is all we hear is doom and gloom, but never anything about the thrives science is making to reverse our effects.


I understand that. But there are some people who haven't quite gotten their head around the mess we're in. You see some of them here every day. People living in denial-land.

There are lots of people working on solutions and we're making very good progress.

Our progress is not fast enough to keep us from getting hurt by climate change. That is almost certainly already happening. And it's almost certainly going to get worse.

But we have enough tools in hand to let us quit burning coal and to let us cut our oil use to about 25% of what it now is. We just need to use them.
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MDR is warming up once again:



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Right now there are some very interesting new storage batteries coming out of university labs.

The one furthest along is a liquid metal battery developed at MIT. It's made of dirt cheap materials and I can't see what in it would ever wear out.

Donald Sadoway, the prof in whose lab it was developed, has a great TED talk on video.

Give it a look...

He's opened a business, gotten a bunch of funding from people like Bill Gates and is working on getting his battery into manufacturing.

Yi Cui at Stanford has produced a number of advancements in batteries. His latest is a very interesting and promising low-cost, high-capacity, hybrid flow battery. Again something that should make electricity storage more than affordable, should make it cheap.

Link

Better storage is the last piece of the puzzle to get us off fossil fuels. Wind generation is already cheap as is geothermal. Solar is getting cheap and should be as cheap as wind in a few years. Affordable storage (along with some other tricks) can let us run a 24/365 grid with renewables and have cheaper electricity than we have now.
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Quoting BobChecks:


Sure. Researchers are working their butts off improving wind, solar, geothermal and all sorts of renewable energy technology. One of the hottest fields right now is battery research. We need better batteries for EVs and grid storage.

Other scientists are studying ways to pull carbon back out of the atmosphere and ocean and safely store it away but unfortunately that doesn't seem to be yielding much in the way of results so far.

Scientists have given us the technology we need to get off fossil fuels and they will make that technology even better over time. But at this point it is really the job of the rest of us to put that new technology to work.



What I am getting at is all we hear is doom and gloom, but never anything about the thrives science is making to reverse our effects.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Anna of 1961 has been the only A storm to caused destruction in Honduras in terms of major hurricanes.


Had to look that one up. It did look bad. As far as A storms Audrey takes the crown around here. 48 years later Rita took a nearly identical path. Evan every 50 years is too often for that. :/

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes they are telling us things we already know.... It's like the next study that comes out is shouting louder than the last one.

What I am asking is, Is there any scientists studying of ways to slow stop or even reverse the effects man has done to the atmosphere of our planet. Or is that just being left to the private sector to figure out, which means they will be extraordinarily expensive cause the private sector has to get the money they invested into the scientific studies and the development, back.


Sure. Researchers are working their butts off improving wind, solar, geothermal and all sorts of renewable energy technology. One of the hottest fields right now is battery research. We need better batteries for EVs and grid storage.

Other scientists are studying ways to pull carbon back out of the atmosphere and ocean and safely store it away but unfortunately that doesn't seem to be yielding much in the way of results so far.

Scientists have given us the technology we need to get off fossil fuels and they will make that technology even better over time. But at this point it is really the job of the rest of us to put that new technology to work.

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Quoting BobChecks:


New Zealand is high on my 'next to visit' list. Australia isn't, largely due to your bitie things.

Actually I don't mind visiting those kinds of places, I've been to India and several times. But I don't care to live with them...

NZ is nice, the South Island is quiet like Scotland. North Island is a mix of a whole lot of countries.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I would imagine he did. A 4 and 5 all the way through the Caribbean! Those late starting "A" storms can be brutal! Hope we never see one like that again.
Anna of 1961 has been the only A storm to caused destruction in Honduras in terms of major hurricanes.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Well, if you don't like bitie things, don't come to Australia. We have most of the top 10 here.


New Zealand is high on my 'next to visit' list. Australia isn't, largely due to your bitie things.

Actually I don't mind visiting those kinds of places, I've been to India and several times. But I don't care to live with them...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep Allen made one hell of a mess here in Cayman


I would imagine he did. A 4 and 5 all the way through the Caribbean! Those late starting "A" storms can be brutal! Hope we never see one like that again.
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0z GFS at 24 hours:



0z GFS at 72 hours:

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Quoting BobChecks:


I'm about as far away from the Gulf as one can get and still be in the lower 48.

Intentionally.

I've spent plenty of time in Florida and on the Gulf. Got a couple of degrees from FSU. Learned enough about that part of the world to make me want to live somewhere else.

Somewhere without deadly storms, swarms of biting/stinging bugs and three kinds of deadly snakes. (Copperheads don't come that far south, do they? I had my share of copperheads when I lived a couple of states northward.)
We do have Copperhead.
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850 mb vorticity

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378. Skyepony (Mod)
Panama is shutting down all schools and universities for three days, beginning Wednesday, in an attempt to save electricity and avoid power rationing.

The Central American nation -- which depends heavily on hydroelectric power fueled by water -- is experiencing a drought. Reservoirs are low after months without rain.

Working hours for government offices will also be reduced in Panama's energy saving effort.

Emergencies have been declared in several provinces as hundreds of cows have died in the parched conditions and farmers have had to significantly delay planting.

Panama is one of Latin America's fastest growing economies.
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Quoting BobChecks:


I'm about as far away from the Gulf as one can get and still be in the lower 48.

Intentionally.

I've spent plenty of time in Florida and on the Gulf. Got a couple of degrees from FSU. Learned enough about that part of the world to make me want to live somewhere else.

Somewhere without deadly storms, swarms of biting/stinging bugs and three kinds of deadly snakes. (Copperheads don't come that far south, do they? I had my share of copperheads when I lived a couple of states northward.)


Well, if you don't like bitie things, don't come to Australia. We have most of the top 10 here.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.